Who will replace NCL?

[bigred08046]

With NCL pulling out of Hawaii who will replace her? I know that POH last sail around the islands is Jan 28/08 because they are losing $$$. This is only the first step. If NCL is pulling the number one ship in its Hawaii fleet it wont be long before the rest of the fleet is gone.:rolleyes:

[AZ Karaoke Girl]

They are only pulling out POH. The other 2 ships will remain and no reason to believe it will change.

[CC Help Michell]

With NCL pulling out of Hawaii who will replace her? I know that POH last sail around the islands is Jan 28/08 because they are losing $$$. This is only the first step. If NCL is pulling the number one ship in its Hawaii fleet it wont be long before the rest of the fleet is gone.:rolleyes:

 

Well, I don't have a crystal ball (wish I did, there's a MegaMillions lottery drawing tonight!) but I can't see NCLA pulling Pride of Aloha or Pride of America from Hawaii for at least the next several years. They pulled POH because three ships was just too many -- while most of them sail full or nearly full year-round, NCLA has had to offer outrageous deals to fill cabins. For example, there's a deal right now for certain Nov. and Dec. '07 sailings offering a balcony cabin AND airfare from the west coast for $1199 pp. Excess capacity has meant low cabin prices, which has been awesome for consumers. However, profits on this route have to come pretty much exclusively from cruise prices, excursions, plus some alcohol, since unlike international cruises they don't have a casino, bingo, or sea days to work as profit centers. I think that's why the '08 itineraries are showing earlier departure dates on day 2 in Maui and Kauai -- that gives more "sea time" for people to drop some cash on alcohol, shopping, etc.

 

I think they picked POH to pull not so much because it's their "number one" ship, although it is the newest, but because it was built as a sister to the Gem, Pearl, etc, and thus is the easiest and fastest one to repaint, add a casino, and deploy to Europe to start generating revenue.

 

I believe they will give a two-ship deployment at least a few years to work before making any decision about leaving the market altogether, especially since NCLA has only begun getting more positive reviews than negative ones in the last six months or so -- with only two ships to staff and crew, I would expect that trend to continue and indeed, to improve.

 

Still, history has shown that it's tough to make a profit with intra-Hawaii cruises -- American Hawaii is the prime example. Given the enormous commitment of time, money, and capital resources NCL has made to the Hawaii market, if ultimately they DO fold, I think it would be hard for any other cruiseline to justify taking it on to their shareholders.

 

Interesting, thought-provoking question!

[CC Help Michell]

Um, missed the edit window -- make that the '08 itineraries show earlier departure TIMES for Maui and Kauai! <blush>

[BullishCruiser]

It all comes down to supply and demand. With less supply and the same demand, NCL will be able to raise prices. Plus they are deploying the ship to an area where demand is strong (Europe), thus a better profit picture overall for NCL.

 

NCL must have commited big bucks to use American flagged ships, get the approvals and so on. So I agree with MichellP that NCL will give it a few more years to see if it works out.

 

Even though NCL essentially has no competition in Hawaii, with three ships they were competing with themselves. You would think with Hawaii being such a terrific destination, the venture would've been more successful for NCL.