Map challenged please advise? TS Frances?

[Disneycruiser#1]

I checked weather.com and Tropical Storm Frances has formed. I am leaving on the Caribbean Princess on Saturday 8/28. I read the map but is this in the region of St. Thomas, St. Maarten and Princess Cay. I know it could move and this is hurricane season I live in NC and am not complaining but if this thing is in our path I know we will go around it but where Nassau? How does it work and what does someone who know how to read maps (lol) think?

 

Thanks so much!!!!

[sue d. miller]

Good Morning. Everything depends where it is on Saturday. We will know better on Friday to see if it has become stronger, and which direction it is taking. As you saw from Charley, It will go where it wants!! If it is going through an eastern itinerary, the ship will most likely do a western route. But you will have to wait till you board. Everything is ultimately up to the Captain!!.

[jbhawk74]

I don't think you have anything to worry about when it comes to Francis. I'm a Certified Floodplain Manager-Geographic Information Systems Analyst who works for the Dept. of Homeland Security and its my job to track and monitor these events. Currently Francis is moving west at 17 mph but our models show a more northern track by next week. I expect there to be no impact to the Carribean from this particular storm. I'm not sure where I could post updates on this board for these storms but let me know if you have any other questions. Do remeber though that these storms sometimes get a mind of thier own, just like Alex earlier this year. Hope this helps:) Now back to the aftermath of Charley:(

[sue d. miller]

Well that sounds good, JB, Welcome aboard!! Glad to have you!!! :)

[Mac Pete]

Great news JB, we're on the Golden 8/29 and I've had one eye on the area for some time now.

 

Disneycruiser, I've found great info and path predictions for tropical weather at

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ they cover both Atlantic and Pacific regions and update on a regular basis.

Smooth sailing!

Pete

[Disneycruiser#1]

Thanks everyone. If anyone hears anything else keep me posted. Our cruise has been on and the off again and now on because of my husband's leave from the military. We are just glad to be going but I have done the western routes so many time something different would be great but I will take what we get.

 

Those of you with knowledge please post back to keep us weather challenged folks informed (lol) :)

 

Thanks

[roohound]

Just because Frances is a family name, I'd like to clear one thing up... it's Frances (the feminine version) not Francis (the male version). Hurricane names alternate genders.....last one was Earl, so this one is Frances :)

 

And Disneycruiser..glad you are going again! Trust me, your cruise will be fine..worst case scenario, you miss or substitute a port....the time with your hubby will still be there :)

[sue d. miller]

This should make you feel better DC!! :)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm6+shtml/250858.shtml?

[roohound]

woo hoo! That is great news there!!!

[GloriaF]

Disneycruiser,

How did your cruising with hubby work out? Last I heard the Marines thought they needed him more than you did. Who are you sailing with??

 

Good Luck to you and have a great cruise!

[Disneycruiser#1]

O, I have had a few minyutes to look at the noaa website and I promise I am smart but obviously still did not get it :( It had a bunch or coordinates and I have no idea what I am looking for.

 

My DH was able to convince his CO, 19 years of service and volunteering to go back to Iraq so 150 Marine under him have his experience vs. a Marine with under 8 years experience is worth a week off for him.....it worked ;)

[DoniaG]

DC - If you go to the second link Sue posted (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...l/250858.shtml?), you will see two small maps in the middle of the page. Click on the right one - it shows a projected path. Don't know your itinerary, but the track looks like it will stay east of that arc of islands that cruise ships usually visit. Hope this helps. Donia

[GummyBear]

Disneycruiser#1, glad to hear that you worked out your dilemma. Can I borrow your husband to talk to my son's CO in Okinawa. We've been planning for our son to join us on our Sept cruise for teh past six months. He is in the Air Force stationed in Okinawa and is supposed to be home in September then on to is new assignment in Germany. He's been in Okinawa for three years and will be in Germany for the next two. We're still waiting for his orders which were do last month! Now we're booked, have non refundable plane tickets to San Juan the cruise leaves in 25 days and still no orders :(

[Disneycruiser#1]

I am sorry for your situation. Everything is up in the air right now. They are so short staffed here in the USA and in Iraq that bases in non-hostile areas are having severe staff shortages.

 

I really, really hope it works out and I know you do too........good luck and I will say a quick prayer for you.

 

I do not know how long he has been in but maybe taking a copy of the invoice and air cost etc. to his staff getting his support and then approaching his CO would help.

 

Good luck!!!

[Disneycruiser#1]

Hey Donia, thanks and I will try it. We are on the CB visiting St. Thomas, St. Marten and Princess Caye........:)

[Disneycruiser#1]

Ok you all that worked but now I am getting ready to go get my son's Leap Frog World Globe :( where are St. Thomas and St. Marten in relation the path it is showing as of now?

[jbhawk74]

Currently the storm is located 11N and 50W. The Virgin Islands are located 18N and 64W. The forecast calls for it to stay on a W to NW track and in 5 days should be located at 21 N and 55 W. With this track, the storm would remain west of VI but also North. It would have to radically move or shift to have an impact on your vacation. The storm has a chance to stregthen over the next few days but right now it looks pretty ragged. We have 2 models running right now and both show no problems through Sunday for the VI. If any of the models change, I'll let you know.

[sue d. miller]

Sorry I didn't say it earlier, But really proud to have you on board Princess, JB!! :)

[DoniaG]

Ok you all that worked but now I am getting ready to go get my son's Leap Frog World Globe :( where are St. Thomas and St. Marten in relation the path it is showing as of now?

DC - St. Thomas and St. Maarten are almost directly right on Puerto Rico on the NOAA map. Here is a link to a Caribbean map that should show you what you need. http://www.caribseek.com/Caribbean_Maps/map-of-caribbean.shtml

 

Oh, and Princess Cay is in the Bahamas - don't know exactly where.

 

Donia

[GummyBear]

Disneycruiser#1, the current track of the storm puts its fringe area about 100 miles east of St. Thomas and St. Maarten (The RED circle on the map)

[Trader Ron]

I have been following Hurricanes for over Fifty Years. Any forecast beyond 120 hrs is risky. Some of the models are taking Frances on a more Westerly course. This is not set in stone that Frances will miss the Islands.

Keep an eye on her.

[GloriaF]

Donia, Princess Cays is on the tip of Eleuthera in the Bahamas.

 

It's nearly 30 mins later and I just realized I didn't say what I logged on to say: I am soooooo glad that your husband is going with you, DC!!!

 

And also wanted to say thanks to the people that keep us posted on the storms -- I feel like I have inside info :D

[jbhawk74]

Well its Thursday morning and Frances is picking up a little punch. I would also like to point out what Trader Ron stated about the 120 hour window is true. It's hard to predict where these beauties want to go until they have actually gotten there. Take Charley for instance. All models showed the storm going through Tampa when I went home Thursday. I come in Friday and by mid-day, well poor Punta Gorda. This being so, I would like to say we have some of the best people here in the Dept watching over these matters and so here is the latest. With 60 MPH winds sustained and the fact that the storm is in waters above 80 degrees. Frances will become a hurricane proably in the next 24 to 48 hours. Do I think there will be a direct hit on on St. Thomas or areas close by, No. Forecasting these events is very tricky. Everyday you awake and you hear 50% chance of rain well guess what there is a 50% chance of sun also. Trust your captain, he'll steer you through calm waters and enjoy your trip.

[sue d. miller]

Jb, can I assume that when it gets close to landfall, the NWS will acknowedge a turn , if it happens this time, to allow the correct evacuation orders to be given?

[Disneycruiser#1]

So from the current noaa projection it shows St. Martin in the fringes of the projected path but St. Thomas (yet)........I have sailed the western carribean 10 times but this was to our first eastern. Where do go if we can't go to St. Thomas or St. Martin?

 

Keep us posted please......we fly out of NC to FLL tomorrow :)

 

I also have a house in eastern nc between Wilmington and the Outer Banks so we keep an eye on these things for home purpose too but then poor Sue D Miller does too :(

 

Thanks!