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57 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

General mood of the market.

The number one beneficiary of Quantitative easement and the stimulus package is the equity markets. There is a ton of cash floating out there available for investing.  Normally in this would result in spending on expansions, buying new equipment, hiring new workers etc.  But that is not possible or practical during a shut down.  Interest rates are too low to make bonds attractive.  Money needs to go somewhere.  While the prudent thing would be to use it first to reduce debt, that is unlikely when the debt has such a low interest rate.   Hence money is flowing to equity markets and causing inflation of stocks.  

3 hours ago, Markanddonna said:

I don't recall saying this would solve the COVID19 problems.  They are just simple suggestions that would improve sanitary conditions onboard the ship for any type of contagious outbreak. There are all sorts of modifications and changes the cruise lines and travel industry can make to assist in making an improved environment after a vaccine is widely available.

 

Your suggestion to create more waste with single use packets as a long term solution will do way more to harm to human health through increased pollution than the minuscule  impact on virus spread.

3 hours ago, Markanddonna said:

Here is an easy detail to eliminate: those waiter parades in the dining rooms where people wave their dirty, germ filled cloth napkins into the air. I doubt anyone will miss those, especially the waiters who have to pretend to enjoy it. 

Perhaps going less green might help. Eliminate salt and pepper shakers and ketchup bottles and offer packets. 

Those changes are neither necessary nor sufficient.  If we have an effective vaccine then absolutely no changes are needed.  Without a vaccine there doesn't exist a set of measures that would prevent the spread on a cruise ship.

49 minutes ago, Scottbro said:

No, not even remotely afraid. I'm a data driven person. You can make statistics appear however you intend. Some, like the media, love big numbers because they are scary. 

 

"Hundreds Hospitalized!" versus "0.04% of the state population hospitalized" are both factual headlines but give very different impressions. Put the latter on the local news and most people will shrug and go about their day. 

 

A lot of my friends think the sky is falling, but I just look at the data. Yes, take it seriously, but keep it in perspective. I have zero fear of getting on a plane, cruise ship or restaurant. The numbers don't justify fear. 

 

Looking forward to our next cruise, whenever it may be! 

That is not data driven analysis.  Only .04% of state’s population hospitalized is a problem if the state only has enough ICU beds for .01% of the population.  

The numbers don’t justify fear ONLY if you lack a basic understanding of what an exponential curve is.

3 minutes ago, lenquixote66 said:

That would not apply to the people living in Sweden.

I meant within the USA.  

1 minute ago, lenquixote66 said:

It could be that those of us who live in New York see this differently than people living in other parts of the country .

I don’t live in New York.  And while I don’t won’t to turn this thread political, to the best I can tell the best indicator of how serious one takes this is not age, income, level of education, race, religion or geographic location but political leanings.  There are exceptions but as a general trend it seems to hold.  

I am not worried about Covid-19 on my next cruise.  I won’t be booking a cruise until covid-19 is no longer a concern. 

Logic dictates that the restrictions ease slowly.  We shouldn’t go from on one day no groups larger then ten to the next day anything goes.  There could be months or years between the day it is okay for schools and most buildings can open and the day that it is acceptable to restart cruise lines and hold events like NYE in Times Square.  I would expect that there will be a full season in which it is considered safe for sports teams to compete in front of empty stadiums and televised, because of a limit on the number of people in a given area that is greater than 10 but less than 1000.   

5 minutes ago, clo said:

Oh, I've been thinking that the whole ship would go through this. Just used the cabin as a small example. And it would be in the change over between cruises.

Once again.  Same comment.  The danger of contracting the disease from current passengers greatly outweighs the danger of contracting it from prior passengers.  The MDR doesn’t need a more significant cleaning between cruises than it does between seatings.

If the virus is still so prevalent that it is necessary to sanitize each room than it is too prevalent to have any cruises.  Occupying a room in which the prior guest had covid-19 is not more dangerous than being in an elevator or next to someone in the MDR that has the virus.  

6 minutes ago, Blizzard54 said:

The problem with that is it is a point in time.  You can be exposed and test negative for several days.  Then you can be positive mid-cruise.   They may start up sooner but there are probably a lot of people that may not want to get back on a ship until there is at least an effective treatment if not a vaccine.  

As long as a negative test means that you aren’t contagious than it is workable.  Just test daily, isolate anyone contagious.

We do that for a week or so and the disease will be virtually eliminated.

Just now, AdoraBelle said:

 

The US (and the whole world) knew about the virus back in mid-Jan, within a very short time of China narrowing down its genetic sequence. 

 

The US opted to pretend it wasn't a big deal until just a few weeks ago.

 

I will continue to place my anger towards all the world governments who decided to underreact. 

Agreed.  Also, as a US citizen I am in no position to hold the leaders of China responsible for their actions.  But I can hold my elected officials accountable for their actions or inactions.

Perspective, yesterday more Americans died of Covid-19 than die of Norovirus in a year.

Note: not “as of  yesterday” but the one day death rate of Covid-19 is greater than Norovirus in a year.

Perspective, the death toll of Covid-19 in the US has surpassed the death toll of 9/11.

26 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

China is already sailing but only locally. In a few months they will forget about the start of this year. To me it all looks like some geneous PR. I mean seriously, while Europeans and Americans are struggling, these guy are redeveloping lol. Hope it will turn out good in the nearest future for us. I really want to go cruising.. in Asia. 
Do you know any asian cruisers? 

Did you read the article?   China is NOT already sailing.  The Chinese cruise industry is talking about plans to resume cruising.  

1 hour ago, Baron Barracuda said:

If this is true for CCL what does it imply for RCL?

It implies that investing in the cruise industry makes about as much sense as licking subway poles.

2 hours ago, Ava79 said:

I agree with you. The word COVIDiot was invented for a reason. So many people could protect themselves and others just by sitting at home. On the other hand, we are now seeing a real example of the courage and heroism of our doctors, grocery store workers and transport services. I hope that in peaceful time we won't stop appreciating this less.

I am not optimistic that this will translate into cashiers and stock clerks making a living wage. The business being bailed out will cry now is not the time for a higher minimum wage.

52 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

There's many of us who have little to no fear of the virus. Call me crazy, but I would cruise right now if it weren't for two things: the risk of being quarantined in the room for 14 days and spreading it to others (besides the obvious no sailings). Even by our worst-case estimates of about 200,000 dying from this, that is .06% of the US population. Really think about that number. How often you would base your life decisions around such a percentage? Nobody even acknowledged the 80,000 flu deaths from the 2017-2018 flu season. No one tracked how many cases there were, there was no hysteria, we didn't shut down the world.

 

Could I die from it? It's possible. I could die from a lot of other things too. However, many of us choose not the live in fear of the world around it. That is no way to live. You could still even take reasonable precautions to protect yourself from all of the "risks". Over a million people die each year in car accidents. Should I be afraid to be on the road?

 

We will continue to do what we can for the time being. The question is, how long will the world be willing to shut itself down for a small percentage of maybes?

200,000 dead is the “worse case (95%)” estimate by an optimistic model that assumes everybody is practicing stringent social distancing thru June.  

The model gets much much worse if we end social distancing early.

The true worst case is everyone dies.  The model (assuming social distancing) says there is a 5% chance it will be worse than 200,000.  

This is only one of many models....some with much worse predictions.  It is not surprising that the White House picked a relatively optimistic model.   

On 3/28/2020 at 3:49 AM, compman9 said:

The world is waiting for two things:

1. An effective treatment

2. A vaccine

 

Once the first one is achieved things will start getting back to normal. Until then, we will be in lockdown

Actually.....

1. A plentiful quick test

2. Effective treatment 

3. Vaccine

And treatment can even be omitted.

With adequate testing things can get back to normal.  If we can test every person, we can isolate the sick and allow the healthy to go about their lives. 

1 minute ago, taglovestocruise said:

Anyone can be a genius like Warren Buffett.  Just buy Buffett , BRK B $190.00 down $50 last few months + he is currently sitting on 125 billion in cash and looking to buy.  Good choice for newbies or the faint at heart.

Two best choices are either BRK or an S&P500 index fund. 

1 hour ago, SRF said:

 

Because when the locked down, the really locked down.

 

You cannot get that response in the US.

Actually lockdowns aren’t containment, they are mitigation.

Containment is done by testing individuals and isolating the known sick from the healthy. Lockdowns, like social distancing, are mitigation in which you limit contact between people to stop the spread because you don’t know who is healthy and who is sick.  
 

China did use both approaches, but ultimately all mitigation can do is buy you some time.  Containment is the only way to truly control the disease, but that requires sufficient tests to test anyone who is suspected of having the disease or who may have come in contact with someone who has the disease. 

8 minutes ago, ldubs said:

 

Surprising?  Not really.  Certainly, looking back there are many things that could have been done better and hopefully will result in better preparedness in the future.  But IMO, there is too much Monday morning quarterbacking going on.

 

About there being plenty of forewarning, I don’t know.  Maybe our expectations are unrealistic.    

 

It is mind boggling how fast this crises developed.

 

A potential new virus is identified in China in late December.  

 

In January CDC and WHO take several steps including airport screening and developing test protocols & test kits. Kits are distributed to select places in US with capacity to test 32,000.  First travel advisories and bans are implemented.  NIH is working on a vaccine.  

 

January 23, WHO says there is no need for international concern about CV.  By the end of January, WHO announces a global emergency but says it does not recommend limits to travel or trade.  January 30, CDC says risk to American public is low.  

 

On Feb 26 the CDC announces the first case of CV in the US with an unknown origin.  In early March, CDC removes restrictions on who can be tested. Fed gov’t releases $8 billions in funding.   On March 11 WHO says this is a pandemic.  Mar 13, US declares state of emergency to release another $50 billion.  March 16, first human test of experimental CV vaccine.  

 

Mid march there were 3,000 cases in the US.  

 

We all know what has happened in the last two weeks.   

 

 

We had well over month longer to prepare for this virus than China.  We had a few weeks longer than S Korea and at least a week longer than Italy.

China was caught by surprise. The US government made a decision to ignore the warnings.  Yet despite the fact China had no warning, unlike the USA, they did a better job at containment.  China made multiple mistakes and did numerous things wrong, but overall their response was better than ours.

53 minutes ago, clo said:

That was humor, right? 🙂

Not at all.  We are witnessing one of the major problems of a global economy and a lack of a robust manufacturing base.

We are dependent on other countries for much of our PPE.  The only major sneaker manufacturer with plants in the USA has switched production to masks, but we aren’t going to get PPE from Nike’s factories in China.  Car companies are going to make respirators but that is because they have factories in the USA. If we still had a garment industry we could use them to make PPE suits, but we don’t.  

Saving domestic manufacturing is more important than saving tourism. 

3 minutes ago, iancal said:

It is an economic and a political challenge.

 

Many cruise lines have given folks the impression that they are US companies.  This is clearly not the case.  They have, for years, organized their corporate affairs to be be based in foreign countries in order to pay a very small amount of tax and to avoid US legislation regarding safely, labor, etc.

 

To add to that, the vast majority of their employees are not American.

 

So it is very much a political problem for all Governments that might be willing to provide bail out money.  If it came down to a choice, should an American company like Boeing that is based in America and has a majority of American employees be first in line for a bail out or should a foreign based cruise company with a minority of American employees and history of doing everything to avoid paying US taxes be given priority?  

Add to that, if Boeing was to disappear our ability to equip our air force in a time of war would be compromised.  If Carnival went bankrupt our our vacation options would be diminished.    

1 hour ago, taglovestocruise said:

Barrons put a buy on RC stock Friday with a 18 month price target of $80.00. No stimulus money for cruise lines, but a chapter 11 bk will wipe out all debt and let all operations continue as they reorganize and shareholders stake remains.  No stimulus money.. really.. Big banks will take the hit from the cruise lines and pass all that bad debt to the fed.  And as a side note additional funding and construction of  the Miami headquarters expansion was reaffirmed last Wednesday. 

Chapter 11 wipes out stock holder equity and the secure debt holders become the new stock holders.

The stock hits $80 in 18 months in the same fantasy world where the virus just magically vanishes and it is safe to pack the churches on Easter.

9 minutes ago, clo said:

Right. I read that a pandemic is only over when everyone is either dead or immune. Brilliant.

Not true. If we used that definition the Spanish Flu pandemic is still going on instead of ending in 1920.  The pandemic ends when enough people are immune that the disease spreads slowly.