hazence

Paying more is probably going to be the new normal...one way or the other.

14 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

And what Royal Cruise ships sail out of South Carolina?

It’s just Carnival, isnt it?  RCCL visits but starts in Baltimore.

I read an article this weekend about the trend could now shift from the mega liners to small ships.  Maybe not all the bells and whistles just the ocean experience.
 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/cruises/articles/scenic-group-orders-luxury-cruise-yachts-during-pandemic/

“The Scenic Group, which owns the luxury expedition yacht Scenic Eclipse, has begun construction on its second vessel, Eclipse II in Croatia.

The Australian-owned company has also made a commitment to deliver four more luxury yachts after that within the next six years.

If a general trend towards the market favouring smaller ships in the post Covid-19 world emerges, then 228-passenger Scenic Eclipse and her sister ships could stand to benefit.”

snip

“The company has also committed to building its first 50-cabin yacht under the Emerald Yacht Cruises brand, Emerald Azzurra, which is due to launch in the Mediterranean in summer 2021, which aims to attract a younger, more active clientele with its “affordable” price point.“

Sounds wonderful to me.

People who are pessimistic want to stay pessimistic. People who are optimistic want to stay optimistic. Round and round we go. Annoyed that we cannot bring each other UP...or DOWN.

3 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I’ll just leave it like that

Look at the SC map yourself. 
 

https://www.scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/sc-cases-county-zip-code-covid-19

See the white areas?

There are numerous free zip codes. 

Im sorry if that upsets you.

Someone asked about yeast...my friend discovered you can freeze it. She and I bought a two pound bag of Red Star on Amazon and are dividing it and freezing most of it.

Distressed industries have their work cut out for them.  Our discussions here show that clearly. I wonder if they read and reflect on that.
 

Many people living in highly affected areas, rightfully fear the virus. They personally know people who have died and personally know people have suffered with this virus. If they still have a job, if they work for the government, if they are well off...they have little fear of being personally affected economically. They probably know people who have lost jobs, but their sympathy for these people pales in comparison to the grief they feel for those that have died. 
 

When people you actually know are dying, your fear level is naturally escalated for yourself and your loved ones. You see people without masks as a real danger. When you read statistical projections, your reality...where you live,...tells you if the Chinese deaths could be counted, the death rate would be much more than 6%. Pessimistic articles predicting a second wave, seem very possible after what you’ve seen.
 

I was surprised at first when I talked about my experience that people initially thoughtI was lying about my “magical zip code” or they assured me that lax face mask practices here would soon punish us with a wave of death and infection. But, though that may theoretically be possible, it hasn’t happened yet and we are at least two months into this pandemic.

I see articles and projections that make me optimistic for the future. Maybe with testing, we will learn the death rate was more in line with a bad flu season...at least for the majority of younger healthy people. That’s possible or the Chinese deaths pushing it upward.  We just don’t know.
 

But I do know people hanging on by a thread financially. One self employed working Mom with no babysitter and a laid off husband , a hairdresser/ friend who can’t make the rent, the appeals from the Food Bank, the elderly in the rusted trailers scared about what they hear about food getting scarce. I have an emotional connection to that...because their lives are real too. They are the REAL people living thru the destruction of our economy. They are not Wall Street bankers or secure Federal workers.or tech guys working from home.They are not just imagined by accountants. I think some of the once thriving small towns around here are going to be ghost towns if things don’t change soon. 

The only thing I’m sure of is that this is an ungodly mess. I hate the political blame game on both sides because, if we are honest with ourselves, we have medical experts and economic experts and “all the kings horses and all the kings men”...and they all really have an incredible puzzle as to how to put things together again.

,
 

19 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I agree with that. I’ve been saying that as well. But we don’t know what we don’t know. It’s a Catch 22. 
 

I was looking at statistics regarding numbers tested and positive. Most States seem to be right around 10% or less. Some States are significantly higher. 

But your absolute numbers aren’t reliable either. It may be 6% of those infected...but how many died WITH COVID rather than of COVID? There’s been a problem of someone who is within days of dying of cancer...testing positive after death...and they mark it a COVID death.

Also we haven’t tested enough, do not know how many asympomatic people have had it...and once they can be counted, that will drive the percentage down.
 

BUt again, testing positive does not mean you are sick. I look at the hospitalization  rates to positive cases and then to deaths. My physician daughter at a large regional,SC hospital has had only one COVID hospitalization, 57 positives, zero deaths.

Then there’s this report from U.K. 

today.

“Let's look at the young group. People are anxious about children, and there's 10 million under 15s in England and Wales, how many of those have died? Had Covid on their deaths out of these 30,000 have died? Two out of 10 million.”

“If we look at under 25s, there're 17 million of them in the country where we have 26 deaths recorded,” he said, suggesting a similar risk would be seen in “a couple of days” in general accidents and sudden deaths. 

However, he said the risk for the over 90s was 10,000 times as high, with more than one per cent of over 90s having died from Covid-19.

“That's a substantial proportion. That is 10,000 times the risk of the younger people,” he said, saying the sharp gradient of risk meant that it doubled roughly every six or seven years with age.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/10/coronavirus-risk-young-staggeringly-low-says-uks-top-statistician/

1 minute ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Again, this site you keep quoting is nothing more than an estimate. The current actual numbers are closer to 6%. No matter what your Zip Code looks like. 
 

The problem with COVID19, many people are infected and don’t know it as they are Asymptomatic. They can and are actively infecting others. 

Not this one.Read the whole thing. It’s just pointing out what you and I agreed about on another thread. 
 

Yes, 6% of the entire infected population of the world died. 
 

But that doesn’t mean you, I , a 30 year old, a Navaho living with no running water, a 50 yr old with lung cancer, a nursing home patient all have the same chance of dying.,

Just now, Milwaukee Eight said:

Let me share with you a true situation.  A Doctor has two sick confirmed cases come into their office. Department of Health does tracking to see who these people came in contact with.  In one of the sick patients (now hospitalized)  contacts, was 10 individuals who tested positive with no symptoms. Asymptomatic. No fever, no nothing. There is currently no set time to become infected. You can test negative today but be sick and positive tomorrow. 
 

Even if all cruisers are tested before boarding, some negative may become positive a day or two later after exposure. No confirmed timeline to show signs after exposure. 
 

What are the cruise ships supposed to do once they have confirmed sick people onboard?  My son works in ICU Miami Jackson, largest trauma centers in South Florida.  I sure don’t want them to dump them off in South Florida. It’s unfair to healthcare workers to handle these people off of cruise ships. It’s selfish. 

I absolutely agree with you on that. I wouldn’t want that either.  No arguments from me on that.

5 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

I don't disagree.  It is different for different age groups and different levels of overall health, just like the flu.

 

BTW, you forgot to mention Chris Cuomo. 😉😁

I’m slipping.😎 Too much happy Mothers Day. Hope you had a good day too! 

2 hours ago, time4u2go said:

That's what I've been seeing also...about 6%.  Here's another source:

 

https://covid19info.live/us/

 

That 6% does not reflect the difference in the morbidly rate due to age, access to medical care etc.  A 40year old does not have the same chance of dying from COVID as an 80 yr old. That statistic is misleading in that respect. It also does not factor in the health of the person when infected.

You have a much higher chance of dying if you reside in a nursing home...I’m sure you have seen the statistics across every state for that tragic situation., 

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

2 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

This I agree with you. 
 

I agree with this. 
 

How do you limit/prohibit the most at risk from sailing? Statistically, those over 65 are the most at risk as well as those younger with certain pre existing conditions. 

well, that’s the problem. 
 

I still have an optimistic little hope...just a hope...that in a few months when we have had more testing and more statistics and more information about why some areas have been so badly hit...that the mortality rate WILL be lower and maybe the Cruise Industry won’t have such an impossible task.

I also am really praying that we look at what has happened everywhere in the Nursing Homes and develop a real PLAN on how to protect the most vulnerable among us. This matters a lot to me....more than I can say.

I have a sister being held like a serial killer...alone for weeks...she can’t use her right hand to even log on her IPad. She just lost her husband this year and now, shut away from her children and friends.
 

11 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

If you read your link, it’s model. Just as the first wave of predictions were a model. 
 

Here is the link to current numbers. This is not a model. You do the math.  (In case you can’t 5.9%).  We all know your Zip Code is far less. 
 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

 

Hey, it’s possible good news...after a Happy Mother’s Day.

But no matter what...the mortality rate is not the same for a 40 yr old as an 80 year old. The world meter numbers do not take age in account or co morbidities.   Your chance of dying from COVID could be statistically  better or worse than mine.  So it’s incorrect to present the morbidity rate as a one size fits all.

10 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

If you read your link, it’s model. Just as the first wave of predictions were a model. 
 

Here is the link to current numbers. This is not a model. You do the math.  (In case you can’t 5.9%).  We all know your Zip Code is far less. 
 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

 

10 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Which one of those infected this many people and had a nearly 6% mortality rate?

New study puts the mortality rate at 1.3%

https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/covid-19/study-puts-us-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-13

1 minute ago, HBE4 said:

 

But unlocked down Sweden still has 10 times the deaths of Norway (220) and over 5 times of Denmark (550).

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/05/08/denmark-norway-relax-coronavirus-restrictions-but-borders-remain-closed/#2129973a4557

 

Plus, Sweden had a "voluntary" social distancing rule that the government left up to its citizens to comply with on the honor system and many did.

 

Having said all that, I do agree with you that models are imperfect and are only as good as the data fed into them. Even with precise, accurate information fed into the models, human behavior will almost surely alter the outcome.

Very good point about Sweden. I’ve been curious and following that. Following what happens in Georgia too.
 

I hope when this is over we really look into how nursing home industry in every state. Lots to learn to protect our vulnerable loved ones.

36 minutes ago, Merion_Mom said:

 

That model was based on not taking any prophylactic measures.  No social distancing.  No masks.  No quarantine.

Lots of criticisms of his models in British press...and his track record turns out to be not great.

For example, According to his models, unlocked-down Sweden should have had 40,000 deaths by now – in fact it has had around 2,850. This is a catastrophic level of error.

“However, it has now emerged that Ferguson has been criticised in the past for making predictions based on allegedly faulty assumptions which nevertheless shaped government strategies and impacted the UK economy.

He was behind disputed research that sparked the mass culling of farm animals during the 2001 epidemic of foot and mouth disease, a crisis which cost the country billions of pounds.”

You might want to read more here..and check out left leading  Guardian too.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/neil-ferguson-scientist-convinced-boris-johnson-uk-coronavirus-lockdown-criticised/

28 minutes ago, HBE4 said:

 

Do people travel in out of your zip code? I heard SC is seeing a rise in the number of COVID cases and deaths. 

 

Stay safe. SC is one of 9 states to receive an "F" in social distancing.

https://www.livescience.com/south-carolina-coronavirus-updates.html

 

 And apparently some are concerned about that.

https://www.thestate.com/opinion/article242532736.html

 

EDIT TO ADD: This conversation should probably move to the "what is happening in your state" thread.

 

Serious answer.  My neighborhood is a gated community and although we have a substantial...about half...full time families...we have lots of “second homes”...”part timers” here as well.,  When this COVID pandemic started to get serious...suddenly all the part timers were back...many from big time hot spots like NYC, parts of Florida, New Orleans, California.

We also had a-lot of “refugees”...like our daughter...who arrived from London.  I’ve posted before that this daughter was on 5 international flights in late Feb and March...and spent about  a week in NYC.  Many other “refugees” have pretty solid travel schedules too.

The full timers are pretty heavy travelers in normal times. One couple got “stuck” in Egypt...a few others were traveling in Italy.  There was one part timer in China but they stayed in their other home.

So we are hardly Brigadoon...cut off from the world.

We do have to go into the Big City...an hour away...for many things...doctors or “real” shopping and many do. We have a small town that has a small Walmart and Ingles...but all the small businesses closed.  
 

The mask protocol is not well followed. BUt we have had zero cases, zero deaths.
 

There has been one death in the county.
 

34 minutes ago, Merion_Mom said:

 

 

And this is the reason that I am disappointed in the admins' decision to move the "humor" thread to the Floataway Lounge.  That thread is more "useful" on the front page of this forum than this one is.

what was the reasoning for that? I wish they’d bring it back.

1 hour ago, John&LaLa said:

 

No need if you won't share it.

 

32931

maybe after one of those Club lunches...🍹🍷

We are back to 0. We had 1 for about a week. He didn’t die so maybe he moved. 
 

Lake is gorgeous today. Golf course very busy. 

2 hours ago, not-enough-cruising said:

The surgical and fabric masks that most people are wearing are able to filter/block particles 100 microns or larger.  The covid 19 particles are said to be 1-4 microns in size.  This is now believed to be aerosol spread vs droplet spread.  So while you believe you are protecting others or yourself with your surgical mask, you likely are not.  It may serve as a way to make you feel better, but a properly fitted N-95 worn correctly and without a break is the better option which most of us do not have.  As a healthcare worker, I am mandated to wear a mask at all times while on the hospital premise, we’ve been issued one surgical mask that I have worn for 6 weeks now.  Mind you these are historically single use items.  I choose not to wear a mask elsewhere.  I do however choose to wash my hands frequently, I monitor my temperature twice daily, and of course I would never go in public at this point if I had symptoms of any kind.   I’ll be damned if someone accuses me of not caring about others.  That could not be further from the truth and inappropriate.  It’s also ridiculous to imply that Americans are just more concerned about going on a cruise than people dying.  The fact is that people WILL get this virus and most will survive. 

No one who does what you do for a living should ever have their empathy nor commitment questioned. You are the ones on the front lines every day, caring for us and our loved ones when necessary. You are carrying the biggest burden of a mystery virus that no one really understands.
 

I wish it was a rotating group of front line doctors who addressed us every day...not politicians and  scientists and “experts” on a disease that no one is really an expert on yet.

Every day...new studies...new opinions....new maybe-projections...intellectual guesswork. 
 

How did those models work out, Dr Ferguson...oh wait...you had to quit.

https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22-million-us-deaths-covid-19

Thank you, Not Cruisin Enough...for the work you do. 

Remember Easter was April 12...

Then on the 28th Buffoon Boy is still sick and now his wife announces her COVID battle.

then..he emerges...this is actually hilarious in a grotesque sort of way. Like he’s been in the mansion basement the whole time.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8239611/Chris-Cuomos-emotional-video-emerges-quarantine-reveals-wife-clear.html

Following this...he was so universally ridiculed on Twitter..

both by Left and Right.  

,

43 minutes ago, broberts said:

 

If you cannot provide evidence one has to presume it doesn't exist. Not even a link to the "interview"? Please!

https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/long-island-bicyclist-verbally-attacked-by-chris-cuomo-fires-back/

https://nypost.com/2020/04/25/biker-in-social-distancing-spat-with-chris-cuomo-is-dad-of-doctor/

1 hour ago, Mapleleafforever said:

How do you feel about Pence not wearing a mask while visiting The Mayo Clinic while it was a posted requirement? 

1 hour ago, Mapleleafforever said:

How do you feel about Pence not wearing a mask while visiting The Mayo Clinic while it was a posted requirement? 

I think it was a really poor example especially since he’s running the task force. It sets a very poor example.

But it sure would have been worse if he claimed to be feverish with COVID and had his kids with him.

10 minutes ago, broberts said:

 

Proof that is so?

There’s a police report.  Plus after his confrontation...unmasked with the cyclist...he went on a radio show and blasted the guy...trying to make it sound like he was just outside at his usual mansion...not a thirty minute car ride away.  This was Easter Sunday. For a few more days...COVID Chris reporter during his show that he was still feverish...and oh, now his wife...then his son...tested positive.

Then suddenly,  CNN had him stage a dramatic re entry from his basement...so over joyed to finally see family again.  

https://nypost.com/2020/04/18/no-ones-more-entitled-than-a-coronavirus-positive-celebrity-in-hamptons/