deadzone1003

Please be aware this is MSC Grandiosa's 2nd incident.  The first was back in early February.  Whether you like it or not, this may be how everything will be when more cruising resumes in April in Europe despite you being vaccinated or not - they will be very cautious in the beginning.   

Apparently, the MSC Grandiosa is still sailing in Europe.  Here is a peek at what may happened if you get sick:

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2773417-grandiosa-1-week-sailing-with-covid-protection-activated/

Right now, only Saga is requiring vaccinations.  MSC is resuming cruising on April 1st, but there is no vaccine requirement as so few people in the EU have been vaccinated.  Saga could do that because the UK is much further along with vaccinations than the EU.  As for the USA, majority of the cruising population should be fully vaccinated by the 1st of July.  Would not be surprised if the CDC requires it as an incentive for people to get vaccinated.

1 hour ago, Diamond lover said:

 

Right on!

Not quite, if you think there are 4-5 possible vaccines, it is more like 3.  The 2 mRNA's are kissing cousins.  So is the J&J and Astra-Zeneca.  The third would be Novavax.  One thing about human nature, if you are allergic to one vaccine, you are quite hesitant about taking another, at least vaccines for the same purpose, even though they are made differently.  

The only people with excess capacity to produce these new vaccines may be their competitors.  But, it still doesn't solve the problem of getting raw materials or ingredients for these vaccines.  Sort of like getting more cooks to make more omelettes, but you need more cooking ranges, more eggs, more chickens, etc.  Thank god for those anti-vaxxers and people who are hesitant about taking the vaccine else the lines to even sign up for a vaccine will be much, much longer, LOL.

MSC Grandiosa was sailing in February of this year on those 7-day trips around the Mediterranean.  They even had a passenger who had covid on board the ship on one of its cruises. Don't know if there are cruises now.  You can bet all of them were wearing masks in public areas else they would have been thrown off the ship.  At that time I would guess that most of the passengers were unvaccinated.  When they re-start cruising in the USA, I expect the passengers to be all vaccinated, but I also expect the CDC to very conservative and require masks in public areas, at least for the 1st few months of resumption of cruising.  

2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

I have not had a shot yet but hopefully the J&J Janssen vaccine will reach some of us soon.  Hopefully if booster doses are needed (if- not when, at this point) there will be increased capacity of doses to do so this coming fall.  

Supposedly with more people getting vaccinated we will slowly reach herd immunity, at least, the R0 of the virus will be reduced.  Now, if current vaccines can still protect you from serious illness, i.e. hospitalization or worst, the urgency for a booster would be also reduced.  I presume it will be a 1-shot booster.  The demand may be just a little more than the annual flu vaccine.   

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

I think current surveys are saying up to 65-70% of the US adult population would now decide to get vaccinated.  This is great progress but still not enough.  You might be correct in that some of the people might decide based on factors such as free payment period for the vaccine expiring.  But most of the vaccine-adverse people are not going to change their minds for whatever reasons they have (anti-vaxxers, mistrust, fear of shots, safety perceptions, misinformation, but also some have specific and valid medical reasons too). 

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/538198-over-30-percent-of-americans-say-they-wont-get-covid-19-vaccine-poll

What they say and what they will do is sometimes a little different especially if you throw in that little incentive where their employer requires vaccination plus foreign travel (even a r/t cruise from the USA) will require a vaccination.  The real anti-vaxxers I would estimate at less than 15%.  It is getting those non-anti-vaxxers in this 30-35% group to eventually take the vaccine that is the task at hand.  Time to develop a little vaccine history will help plus the J&J vaccine with its 1-dose regiment will help.  It would really help if they develop an oral vaccine, LOL.

Don't forget The Surf & Turf at Waves for lunch.

If you want to fly to a foreign country and that country requires a covid-19 vaccination to enter their country, do you think they care if you have an allergy to the covid-19 vaccine or not?  It may not be "fair", but as far as they are concerned, that's the law.  It may not preclude travel within the USA or to countries that do not have this requirement.  That is the new reality that I see coming.  It may or may not become permanent.  

5 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

I like it. Plenty of vaccines available by June with plenty left over by the end of summer depending on how many folks don't want to get it. Couple of thoughts come to mind.

 

Can some of those "extra" doses the US purchased be used for the inevitable booster shots that might be deemed necessary next Fall? 

 

Also, with regards to the initial "free" doses, will there come a time once widely available at your nearby pharmacy, that they will no longer be free? My projection is if/when that time does come, a lot of those folks curently sitting on the fence for whatever reason if given say a 30 day window, will finally decide to get it.

Those excess doses of vaccines will be the same as the one you are taking now.  Those booster shots which will be upgraded to handle the UK, South African, and Brazilian variants will be a different formula and will probably be available at the end of the year, provided testing is o.k.  Who knows it may be able to handle other variants like the "California" variant which is coming on the scene.  As for it being free, nothing is free - they are basically postponing the billing.  Your insurance will pay for it or Medicare will pay for it.  Well, next year your health insurance is more expensive.  Guess who paid for it?  They won't charge for the vaccine or booster shots, at least, not out of pocket because they want people to take these vaccines/boosters.  The big incentive will be if employers require vaccinations for employment (unless you are allergic to the vaccine, but fellow employees may treat you like a leper) and other countries will require vaccinations to visit their country (if you are allergic, you are out of luck).    

Right now, the USA have ordered and set to receive enough vaccines for 400,000,000 people by the end of July, not sure about the last 100,000,000 doses from Moderna or Pfizer.  These vaccines are for adults only (though it might not be hard to swap them with children's vaccine when available).  The USA has a population of 330,000,000.  Roughly half the population of the USA if surveys are accurate are hesitant about taking the vaccine. Once half the population is vaccinated, demand for the vaccine will start falling.  I suspect the drop in demand to begin sometime in May or June.  The maximum demand for adult's vaccine is, at most 250,000,000 full vaccinations (not doses), and that may be because of vaccine requirements for travel and employment.  Not included are the children under puberty who will need their own vaccine and the anti-vaxxers, plus a small group of people hesitant taking any vaccine without that much history.  What are we going to do with these extra 150,000,000 full vaccines (not doses)?  This doesn't include deals we made with Astra-Zeneca and Novavax where the USA had ordered 100,000,000 doses each provided they are approved.  I think the USA will be selling these surplus vaccines as well as giving them away as aid to other countries by sometime during the summer, most likely July.  This is assuming production does not hit any snags or the USA postpones its delivery of vaccines.   So, theoretically, the crews could be vaccinated sometime this summer, but the problem will be destinations may take alot longer to re-open.    

58 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

We may not like not being able to cruise, but the CDC order has saved many lives

How many people have died who gotten sick on cruise ships since cruising resumed in Europe and Singapore?

16 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

Our state health officer asked people today in a press conference to not “shop” vaccines or try to wait for a Vaccine because it has a slightly higher efficacy, but to take the shots available when you get an appointment. Because they all basically work the same.

They must anticipate a hard sell for J and J, likely because of all the publicity about the varying efficacy. His remarks also led me to believe it will be a moot point until about May, they expect to get a little J and J, then none for awhile.

I don't think it will be a hard sell for the J&J vaccine.  Only half  our country really want the vaccine ASAP.  You have your anti-vaxxers.  You have people who want a little history of the possible long-term effects of a new vaccine, but they are not anti-vaxxers.  You have people who are hesitant about taking a vaccine that is so completely new (the mRNA vaccines) that they think you are nuts to take it, but they are not anti-vaxxers.  You have a very large group, mostly the young, who don't think they need it and who believe they will survive it if they do get it.  However, if they make it a vaccine requirement for travel and work, then most of these people in these 4 groups except for most of the first group will eventually get the vaccine.  The J&J vaccine will be the most likely choice as it will be the most convenient to get and take.  Myself, I fall into group 2.  I am not afraid of getting sick with covid-19 as long as I don't advance to the stage where I have to be hospitalized.  For me any of these vaccines would work.  J&J would be the most convenient and doesn't use the mRNA process.  I may consider Novavax if it gets approved.  Anyway, if you want all of these people to get vaccinated now, wouldn't the lines be even longer?  Worry about it in a few months time when vaccine supply has caught up with demand.  

11 minutes ago, nocl said:

The Alaska cruises out of SF are longer than the CDC 7 day limit.

Forgot about that one, thanks.

Isn't Representative Don Young (R) working on temporary work-around where round-trip cruises from Alaska and Washington will not have to visit a foreign port.  It is only a temporary solution.  However, this does not include California so the Princess and Carnival r/t cruises from San Francisco will still fall under the old law.

It refers only to voyages between Alaska and Washington state.  So, Princess and Carnival out of San Francisco cannot sail to Alaska.  Maybe, Congressman Don Young is unaware of the Alaska cruises out of San Francisco.  At one time, I believe Celebrity sailed out of San Francisco to Alaska, r/t.  

24 minutes ago, dreaminofcruisin said:

 

Maybe not...

Interesting story...

Russia is trying to lure people to get their vaccine by offering free ice cream:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-30/as-others-rush-to-vaccinate-moscow-lures-takers-with-ice-cream?sref=2xIinRXp

 

 

Isn't it still winter in Russia, might get kids, but I don't know who else?  Might have better luck with a shot of vodka, lol.

In the last 7 days, the average distribution of the Moderna & Pfizer vaccine is just over 2.3 million doses per day.  Right now, the daily vaccination capacity for all states is probably over 2,000,000 though the actual daily vaccinations are lower due to spot shortages.  So, it looks like supply is at least catching up to capacity to vaccinate though still not have caught up with demand, unfortunately.   We get there sometime in April or May, i.e. supply meeting demand.  Once the J&J vaccine is available then the J&J vaccine can be distributed like the flu vaccine. 

4 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

I have to admit the weekly production estimates of that many vaccine doses just staggers my mind. I love it!

 

U.S. poised to have 3M vaccine doses available per day by April (yahoo.com)

Pfizer and Moderna have to distribute at a rate of 3,000,000 doses a day just to make their March 31st contractual obligation of 100,000,000 doses for each company.  If J&J is approved this Friday, we should be past 3,000,000 a day in March.  This is assuming the companies are not having production difficulties, though J&J seems to have some.   One good sign is there was a big jump in distribution in the last few days which I hope is a sign of what is coming.  

40 minutes ago, Couple-Somerset said:

 

and the person sleeping nearest them in the next cabin - if they go purely by distance lol

Only if they have adjoining doors

1 hour ago, broberts said:

 

I think you are missing a critical point. Children are far less likely to have a symptomatic case. Since few school boards do random asymptomatic tests it is not possible to definitively state there is a lower incidence of infection in schools. What data there is suggests infection rates may be close to those of the surrounding community.

You are implying that this disease is really not affecting the children very much - more like a common cold.  If all these kids were infectious as you say they are, wouldn't the teacher be the canary in the coal mine?  If the teachers were getting sick, I'm sure the teacher's union in states where the schools are still opened would make a big stink about it.    

16 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

And, you're already seeing the inevitable reports in underserved parts of the US of people buying Equine or Bovine Ivermectin to save money (and possibly to self medicate). Not in the mood to look it up, but the reported doses for coronavirus were substantially higher as I recall than the doses used for human parasite control. Someone will make dilution errors, and we'll find out what the blood-brain barrier exclusion rates are in people...

Humans do take this drug for parasites.  South Africa had recently banned this drug for covid-19 because people were apparently taking it in liquid form from the jugs of Ivermectin which they give to their animals.  Of course, they overdosed, but South Africa apparently rescinded this ban (or probably modified it so you are not allow to take it in liquid form, but in tablets.)  If you get sick with covid-19 and are unvaccinated, what options do you have at the early stage of the disease?  Take 2 Tylenols every 4 hours?   At the outpatient stage of the disease, we do not have any options except wait, drink plenty of fluids, and if you are young, take some aspirin as an anti-coagulant.  Since this is a FDA-approved drug, it is considered safe if prescribed by your doctor.  Whether you think it is effective against covid-19, best to do your own research and decide for yourself.  

2 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

This is not borne out by the facts. Recent studies have confirmed that compared to adults, children likely have similar viral loads in their nasopharynx and similar secondary infections rates, and can spread the virus to others.

 

Children tend not to have severe symptoms (and thus don't get tested as often), but they are certainly both infected AND infectious to others.

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2768952

 

Just because they can get infected and pass on the virus doesn't mean the incidents of the virus among children is the same as the adults.  The incidents of the virus is much, much lower.  If what you are thinking is true, schools that have not closed would have virus sweeping through their student population and that is not the case.  Kids with comorbidities are the most vulnerable and most likely to get sick.  Quarantine them and not the rest of the class.

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

These mid term effects are not good for those suffering from them.  I think "long-term" is a misnomer at this point since previously infected people at most are 1 year post infection.  So hopefully most of them will recover over time.  To me long-term means years and not months.  Or even worse, life-long effects.

 

The interesting thing will be what happens with the vaccines?    If you are in the 5% who gets mild Covid after the mRNA vaccine are you much less likely to have any lingering or longer term effects?  If so that is a huge advantage in itself of getting vaccinated.

Aren't the vast majority of "long-haulers" were hospitalized?  In the other words the virus has advanced to their lungs and the rest of their body.  If the vaccines allows your body to fight the virus before it gets to the "pneumonia" stage of the virus, the probability of being a long-hauler is greatly reduced.  If you are unvaccinated and caught the virus, get it treated as early as possible.  You may ask your doctor about Ivermectin as an anti-viral for outpatient treatment.  The Federal Government had nixed the drug for treatment for covid-19 earlier, but has changed their mind and have left it up to the patient and doctor.  Currently, this is the drug of choice for outpatient use through many parts of the world.  Do your own research and decide for yourself.