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About deadzone1003

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  1. I thought my last entry was going to be the last, but I couldn't let Paul give you misinformation. Yes, Brazil has the most Wuhan virus cases in South America. Yes, 3 time more than the next country. But, Paul didn't tell you that the country had only 1/10 of the population of Brazil. (That country should be either Ecuador or Chile). We should be asking how other countries are succeeding and if we can replicate that effort or protocol. The reason for the lockdown is so that the disease do not overwhelm our hospital system. The logical goal is to lockdown those people who are candidates for the ICU and let the others get back to work. Some of those who go back to work will get sick with the virus, but they are the prime candidates who are not going to die or get to the ICU.
  2. Somehow, Sweden's primary schools are operating like normal. Shouldn't each state's head of education look into that? I don't think they are operating online schools like some of the colleges. Brazil's primary schools are operating normally. It is more of a question of how to protect the most-at-risk, not locking everyone up in their residences to protect them. Vast majority of the population really do not need protection. They should go back to work before there are no jobs to go back to. This will be my last entry for this thread. It seems that CC have already lock up one of the thread which I was active in and deleted some of my entries in another thread. Don't want to have this thread locked up or entries deleted. See some of you on other threads.
  3. By August we should have enough anti-body tests to give to the schoolkids in order to determine if they have herd immunity. The only people in danger are the teachers and the staff plus any kid who have an auto-immune problem like diabetes. By then, alot of teachers may have that herd immunity. Don't know until we test.
  4. Hi Clo, Well, there are these anti-bodies test to show at what stage of the disease you are at. My son who may have caught this disease (he doesn't know if he did or if he had the flu) had a co-worker who had the Wuhan virus. When my son was sick (this was late February), he didn't know the co-worker had the disease until he return to work. We assume that it was highly likely that he did, but he has to take this anti-bodies test to confirm it. The only symptom to suggest that he had the virus was extreme fatigue. The virus hit him on a Friday and he was back to work on Tuesday or Wednesday, pretty fast recovery. Right now, there is a long line of people who thought they had the flu or Wuhan virus symptoms that want to take that anti-body test. He may not get it until late April or May. Most schoolkids may have herd immunity already, but they can't test that theory because of the limited number of anti-body tests. In Sweden, the schools were never shut down. The kids have such a robust immune system that the virus can't suppress it very much. The kids can easily get the virus (like a common cold), but their immune system can easily handle the disease. The only ones in danger are the teachers and the staff, especially the older ones. In short, we can only determine herd immunity if we test everyone who did not officially catch the disease with this anti-body test. If there is a great enough percentage of population who has this anti-body (don't know that percentage), the population will be considered to have herd-immunity.
  5. Paul, You are correct. All I am saying is herd immunity is the path we may have to use if a vaccine cannot be developed. Fortunately, there are so many companies trying to develop a vaccine, both inside and outside of the USA, the odds seem to increase for developing one, but the fact there has not been 1 vaccine for any coronavirus requires some real breakthrough. There is a possibility everyone would have had the virus before a vaccine is ready for use.
  6. Well, I have a cruise in December aboard the Riviera. I'm not planning to cancel because I will pay for it with mostly FCC that I received from Oceania for my diverted cruise. I do not believe the cruise will take place but I'm sure Oceania will roll my cruise with FCC to the following year. I do not plan to book airfare until maybe 30 days before departure. If I book a hotel, I would only choose a hotel with free cancellation. Now, I'm a firm believer that the cruise industry will not be able to get back to normal until a vaccine is found. Problem is the record of for development of a vaccine from conception to testing to approval to actual use is around 4 years for the Ebola virus. As some of you who remember me from other threads, I was quite optimistic about the time frame if they could modified an existing vaccine to use on the Wuhan virus. Well, my logic was o.k. but the problem is there was no existing vaccine to modify. Apparently, there is no vaccine for any coronavirus. I haven't found one on the internet. Please leave a link if you do. There is no vaccine for SARS, MERS, or the common cold. So, now I'm not so optimistic about finding a vaccine. Does it mean that they will never find one? No, but it may take alot longer than we expected. Is cruising dead? I don't know. Right now, I hoping that mankind develops herd immunity and develop protocols to treat this disease to minimize deaths. Good thing is alot more people have (or had) this disease. We may be developing a herd immunity without even knowing about it. There is speculation that 1/3 of NYC have or may have had this disease because most cases are mild or asymptomatic. We won't know until anti-bodies testing is more readily available. Right now, I would be betting on everyone developing herd immunity before getting the vaccine. If that is the case, maybe cruising can begin its start to getting back to normal in the following summer.
  7. Too many variables to determine a possible outcome which is what you need. Companies underwrite auto insurance because they expect a certain outcome. The history data bears it out. We don't have any data history to accurately determine outcome. You may be able to cover certain small cruise ports, but how about the more popular places? How about the fellow passengers who get sick on the ship? Don't be surprised if they start suing the heck out of the cruise lines! Virtually every scenario has alot of risks at this time. Vaccine is maybe the only salvation. The question is how long will it take?
  8. Sometimes, I wonder what is the supporting evidence for many of the early resumption of cruising. Every cruise port will have to decide if the benefits of cruising is enough to offset the expected cost of fighting this disease. Right now, there may be some cruise ports willing to open up to cruise ships because it really benefits them, but I having difficulty of coming up with even one example. I could see Panama allowing canal transiting, but no ship may stop at any Panama cities. We may have to wait until there is a vaccine for this disease before cruising will even begin to get back to normal.
  9. The Emerald Princess may be the best type of ship to sail the New Panama Canal while the older Coral Princess is the best for the old Panama Canal due to its various viewing area - front, aft, top, side. The Emerald Princess is really design for the Caribbean (or warm water itinerary) because of the 2 large pool areas and an aft pool, I believe it is still adults only. If the weather is lousy, it becomes a little bit crowded below deck. With this ship you have a better chance of getting a pool-side lounger than other ships. It doesn't mean you can come later and expect a lounger to be available. Just remember, Princess is a more relaxed type of atmosphere, doesn't have that go-go atmosphere that you may get in a RCCL ship, but even a RCCL ship will be different when it sails a longer and more exotic itinerary, simply because of different demographics.
  10. NCL may be closer to RCCL than Princess. On the Panama Canal transit cruises, the demographics are going to be older no matter which line it is. Every line generally follows the rule of the longer the cruise, the older the passenger especially for anything over 14 days. Also, you should ask yourself which canal you wish to transit, the old one or the new one. Anything over panamax limits will use the new canal while they have been sending everything else through the old ones though they may be exceptions like Disney paying to use the new canal on 1 of their cruises. Pretty much everyone else has been saying is on the money. Nightlife will be much more subdue due to the older passengers, but sometimes you can get a livier group of passengers. It will be a very relaxing cruise on Princess, but if you are looking for nightlife, you may want to take a look at NCL. If you like to be by the pool during your seadays, Princess would be your choice. I guess you have to find whatever fits you. Every cruise line has alcohol packages and most of them seems to be alike. If you are a wine drinker, Princess would get the nod as they have a more liberal wine policy and their wines are priced lower. You can even pick up a couple of bottles in Panama City and bring it aboard (corkage fees may apply).
  11. The cruise lines, I believe, are a highly leveraged industry. They may own their oldest ships outright. But, in a bankruptcy court, they may offer a plan to protect the passengers, but the judge is likely to spread out the pain. How much you would lost would be up in the air. The shareholders will lose everything. Creditors will be big losers. Everyone will lose to some degree. The cruise industry cannot start coming back until there is a vaccine as destinations will probably require a vaccine to visit their country or even to enter a port. It normally takes 12-18 months because most vaccines use the technique of inserting a small amount of the disease into your system in order to grow antibodies - a tad tricky. We might be able to get it in around 6 months if Trump can accelerate the process, especially if they are just adapting a current vaccine in use. The only saving grace for the cruise lines are their ships are probably their only major assets. They will have no other value other than as cruise ships except as scrap metal and the scrap metal market will probably be depressed. For example, who would be buying the Royal Princess except another cruise line or someone who wants to get into industry and who would want to get into a depressed industry with so many unknowns. What can you use the Royal Princess for except as some kind of people hauler. I see the industry going bankrupt, but they might be too big to fail because of the lack of alternatives. I suspect the creditors to be the new additional shareholders where as current shareholders you may have to give up 50-90% of your equity, but you will still get your OBC as a shareholder when you book a cruise on one of their cruiselines.
  12. For those who are complaining about this thread being hijacked, not really, if you don't understand what is causing the future to be so muddy and that there are so many outcome still to be undecided (for example, how bad will the economy become), it is very difficult to see what the future may hold - everything is wild speculation and generally without much basis. Here is an update report of the low German death rate. I was incorrect in my earlier remark. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/germany-has-a-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-heres-why.html
  13. I believed most deaths were given as that person died of "....." brought on by HIV/AIDS or that person has AIDS and eventually die of "....". We just want more information. The less you know, the more you are afraid.
  14. Think Spring Break or Mardi Gras, what happened to some of those attendees? Perhaps, it could be done online with the use of Zoom? These days, you have to think outside of the box to overcome your problem, but stay optimistic. Yesterday, I was at a wine offering from a winery using Zoom. You couldn't taste the wine, but you ended up knowing much more about the wine than if you went to the winery. Ah, that virtual foie gras should go very well with my virtual Pinot Noir.
  15. I believe she really want a clarification. Did the patient actually die from the Wuhan virus or did they die from an underlying condition because they became infected with the Wuhan virus? In the end it is logical to conclude that the person died because of the virus, but her point was more about how did they actually die? I am curious how they are really dying. 2/3 of diabetics die because of cardiovasular problems, such as heart attack or stroke. They could also die because their insulin is too high. They could die because their lungs become full - in this case, Wuhan virus really did kill them. Basically, she wanted to know which path the death took. This is about knowing more so you can understand what you are dealing with.
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