PR & USVI Weather Update 5/16 5 am

[TVMet]

From the National Weather Service San Juan...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN INTENSIFY AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PULL ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY... WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES... MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

 

IN THE MEAN TIME...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 66 WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL ALSO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALL THE DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE TO HAVE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES.

 

The forecast for P.R. and USVI...

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...

THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS 86 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 75 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOWS 77 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 64 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS 86 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 75 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED

THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOWS

78 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 66 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS 89 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 79 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOWS 77 LOWER

ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 66 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN

70 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS 89 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 79 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER

MIDNIGHT. LOWS 77 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 66 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS 89 LOWER

ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 79 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN

30 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...VARIABLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...

THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 77 LOWER ELEVATIONS

RANGING TO 66 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...VARIABLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 89 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 79 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 77 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 66 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING VARIABLY

CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 89 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 79 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN

40 PERCENT.

[Sage]

Please don't tell me the first tropical storm is going to form. :eek:

[spcl4cs_gal]

Isn't this just a tad early??? Hopefully not a sign of things to come this summer. :(

[Pete Jackson]

The National Hurricane Center monitors Atlantic and Eastern Pacific at:

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

So far, there is no mention of this system as a tropical depression.

 

But this year (and most of the next 20!) is expected to be another active year for tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic since sea surface temperatures are running well above normal. This is part of a 60-year cycle (30 years on, 30 years off) and not directly related to global warming. The current 'on' cycle started around 1995. The previous 'on' cycle was roughly 1935-1965.

[Sage]

Thanks Pete for explaining this to us. We have been told to expect another rough year, but hopefully, they won't all decide to make Florida their destination.

[TVMet]

The National Hurricane Center monitors Atlantic and Eastern Pacific at:

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

So far, there is no mention of this system as a tropical depression.

 

 

The National Hurricane Center doesn't start regular daily updates until June 1. If an "out of season" system forms, they will do updates.

[sail7seas]

I guess HAL can say 'officially' they decided to move all ships out of the caribbean spring, summer, fall 2006 because it is an 'on cycle'. I sure hope this 'on cycle' ends ahead of schedule and the storms don't touch land .....anywhere .........but remain out to sea. (and ships can avoid them).