The Spawn of Isaac

[spleenstomper]

http://www.wunderground.com/maps/

 

I think it is that low up there by Nova Scotia.

[H82seaUgo]

http://www.wunderground.com/maps/

 

I think it is that low up there by Nova Scotia.

 

http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/tracker/2012/isaac

[crewsweeper]

http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/tracker/2012/isaac

Notice the fine print. "Last updated 5 days ago"

 

At that point the TS/TD ceased to be a TD and become just an "ordinary" low.

 

From Jeff Masters' blog this morning:

 

A remnant of Hurricane Isaac pushed southwards through Alabama on Wednesday and emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and this disturbance is now being tracked as Invest 90L. Long-range radar out of New Orleans shows only a small area of heavy rainfall associated with 90L. The echoes show a little spiral banding behavior, and there is some slight evidence of rotation to the echoes. Visible satellite loops and surface observations from buoys and oil rigs in the Gulf suggest that 90L has formed an ill-defined, elongated surface circulation. The area covered by heavy thunderstorms is relatively small, and is pushed to the south side of the circulation center by strong northerly winds that are creating a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. There is a large amount of dry air that surrounds 90L on all sides that is interfering with development. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 90L this afternoon, but this flight may be cancelled if 90L does not show more organization in the next few hours.

 

Figure 1. Invest 90L off the coast of the Florida Panhandle as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:30 pm EDT Wednesday September 5, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

 

Forecast for 90L

Wind shear is predicted to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by tonight. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf have been cooled down considerably by the passage of Hurricane Isaac last week, and are 28.5° - 29°C. This is plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will increase in organization today and Friday as it moves slowly south-southwest. A trough of low pressure and an associated surface cold front will move southeastwards over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and this trough should be capable of pulling 90L to the northeast to a landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida on Sunday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. I put these odds a bit higher, at 50%.

[H82seaUgo]

Notice the fine print. "Last updated 5 days ago"

 

At that point the TS/TD ceased to be a TD and become just an "ordinary" low.

 

 

hover your cursor over the latest location on the map.

[Scott34787]

Lowered back down to 40% chance of formation.

Looking less organized - maybe decided not

to go through with the sex-change :)

 

 

Thank God Leslie and Michael are staying

far away - soon to reach 100mph & 120mph winds,

respectively.

[spleenstomper]

I think that was just a glitch on the program.

http://www.examiner.com/article/boston-weather-forecast-for-september-4-2012

Isaac hit Boston on Tuesday.

[maxandmolly]

Lowered back down to 40% chance of formation.

Looking less organized - maybe decided not

to go through with the sex-change :)

 

 

Thank God Leslie and Michael are staying

far away - soon to reach 100mph & 120mph winds,

respectively.

Still gonna be a rainy weekend. Blah.

[Kangapong]

We are however in the peak of hurricane season, so nothing surprises me this time of year.

[MrPaulAR]

We got a small group that'll be on the Elation on the 17th. Get a few DoD in you and there won't be any issues.

 

See you there everyone!!