Tropical Depression #5 (Emily)

[Wicked Wench]

Our frist cruise leaves Canaverial on Sunday, July 17th. I'm freaking about this. We are booked on the Mariner of the Seas heading to the Western Carribbean.

 

What happens in this kind of circumstance?

 

My boyfriends family has spent a fortune on this cruise for all this family.

[later]

Wicked Wench:

 

You most likely would end up doing the eastern ports and sea days in place of the normal western ports of call. Look at it this way. Port Canaveral is on the Central East Coast of Florida and if the depression does turn into a tropical storm or hurricane it seems that it will track much like Dennis and Port Canaveral will be clear to leave port and no where near the storm to start your cruise.

[mojo4trav]

I know you are only giving an educated guess but what would this do to a cruise leaving from Bayonne on Friday. What path might they take to avoid Emily?

 

I can't really say, to be honest as the Bayonne sailings don't seem to have any previous history of this 'problem' on which to base a best guess.

[Eric990]

It's now a Tropical Storm and officially called "Emily." :(

 

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

 

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6

HOURS...AND THE EARLIER EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE EAST

SIDE THAT HAD BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE LARGER CIRCULATION

HAS WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS

T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE

T-NUMBER IS 3.0/45 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND

THE MUCH IMPROVED INFRARED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY WAS

INCREASED TO 35 KT ON THE SYNOPTIC TIME AND 40 KT FOR THE ADVISORY

INTENSITY...AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED EMILY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW

PATTERN IS SMALL BUT SYMMETRICAL...AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11. DUE TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FARTHER NORTH INTO THE DEEPER CONVECTION...THE

FORECAST TRACK HAD TO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTH...OR RIGHT...OF

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS

JUST PARALLEL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN

UNUSUALLY STRONG AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE

CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 60 HOURS...NEAR PUERTO

RICO IN 72-84 HOURS...AND THEN PASSING OVER OR NORTH OF EASTERN

HISPANIOLA IN 120 HOURS. IN FACT...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SO TIGHTLY

CLUSTERED...NOW THAT THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS COME INTO THE FOLD...THE

MODEL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN 120 HOURS IS LESS THAN 120 NMI. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE

AND CLOSE TO THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.

 

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE OR

INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24-36 HOURS WHEN EMILY

IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A SMALL 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AS

DEPICTED BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST. HOWEVER

...IF EMILY DOES NOT INTERACT MUCH WITH PUERTO RICO AND/OR

HISPANIOLA...THEN THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER AT 120 HOURS.

 

 

FORECASTER STEWART

[N.FL Cruisers]

I just love Labadee (Hispaniola). I just hate these canes that rip apart cruise stops. Maybe if Emily goes through the Cuban mountains, that it will shred her up.

[Monthend]

From your lips to God's ears.