May-June Disturbance Discussions

[PelicanBill]

Heads up for Bermuda bound cruises.  Monday/Tuesday could see some ships delay a few hours to allow the storm to pass if it is tropical storm strength.

[PelicanBill]

This is why I am not overly excited about it.  40-45kt winds aren't a problem for cruise ships, but could hold movement in/out of Port of Miami for some hours as it passes. And it will soak your checked luggage. Pack wisely.

 

[Nell649]

4 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Welcome to CC new member!  Yes, I would expect Royal Caribbean to sail--as long as it is safe to do so--and re-route the ship to avoid as much of the storm as possible.  

Thanks so much! Hope they re-route us to a sunny beach! 

[Nell649]

6 hours ago, LadyBeBop said:

Are you on the Freedom?  If so, keep the ship ready for us. We cruise on Monday. 
 

Looks like you’ll get out tomorrow. The brunt of the storm won’t be until late Friday into Saturday. CocoCay may be iffy for Saturday. Nassau should be fine for Sunday. 

Yes on Freedom supposedly tomorrow! Fingers crossed we get to enjoy a beach somewhere! 

[PelicanBill]

everyone has been over-enthusiastic for this storm. It still has not become named and may not until it reaches the Atlantic. 
 

so winds are leas of a threat but rain and flooding and some surge still a concern.

 

if you have a cruise from Miami or Fort Lauderdale tomorrow please tell us what’s happening!

[PelicanBill]

As of 5am (Saturday) it is still only “potential tropical cyclone one” and not a named tropical storm. 
 

so a wet and windy day in Miami but hopeful all cruises are good.

[PelicanBill]

Wow, still not a named storm! 5pm Satutday and heading into the Atlantic, but still expected to make it to tropical storm by morning.

 

[Honolulu Blue]

Tropical Storm Blas has formed and officially been named in the Eastern Pacific.  The detail page from NHC is at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?start#contents .

 

I'm cruising the Mexican Riviera this weekend, so I've been following this disturbance.  It's moving slowly now, but figures to pick up speed in the next few days.  By the time we head to the Cabo area, Blas figures to be hundreds of miles to our southwest and not a threat.

 

There's another disturbance to the east of Blas that has some chance to develop into something interesting.  I guess I'll spend my time worrying about it until it turns out there's nothing to worry about.

[PelicanBill]

Agree on Blas... it's heading west and things should be acceptable along the shore.

 

Here's the disturbance in Central America that has a 20% chance to develop, and patterns suggest it would curve north and west hugging Honduras and Costa Rica, then maybe Belize and Mexico. Very early on this.

[Honolulu Blue]

1 hour ago, PelicanBill said:

Here's the disturbance in Central America that has a 20% chance to develop, and patterns suggest it would curve north and west hugging Honduras and Costa Rica, then maybe Belize and Mexico. Very early on this.

 

That's not the one I was talking about, but thanks for the heads up.  THAT one is still in the Eastern Pacific, SSE of Blas and currently south of Guatemala.  It currently has a 60% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression according to NHC.  It's too early to know for sure, but I don't think we'll be affected by that one either.

[rbolanos]

3 hours ago, Honolulu Blue said:

 

That's not the one I was talking about, but thanks for the heads up.  THAT one is still in the Eastern Pacific, SSE of Blas and currently south of Guatemala.  It currently has a 60% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression according to NHC.  It's too early to know for sure, but I don't think we'll be affected by that one either.

Im keeping an eye on this one - heard may be threat for last week in June. Im on Allure on July 3rd and headed to Costa Maya and Cozumel. Any feedback on when a cruise ship is re-routed due to these tropical disturbances? What is considered unsafe vs. just rough seas? Thanks in advance

[Honolulu Blue]

40 minutes ago, rbolanos said:

Im keeping an eye on this one - heard may be threat for last week in June. Im on Allure on July 3rd and headed to Costa Maya and Cozumel. Any feedback on when a cruise ship is re-routed due to these tropical disturbances? What is considered unsafe vs. just rough seas? Thanks in advance

PelicanBill is the real expert; I'm just a dilettante. But the disturbance that's currently in the Caribbean should be long gone by the end of June. There may be something else to worry about by the time your cruise goes. We'll have to see.

[PelicanBill]

15 hours ago, Honolulu Blue said:

PelicanBill is the real expert; I'm just a dilettante. But the disturbance that's currently in the Caribbean should be long gone by the end of June. There may be something else to worry about by the time your cruise goes. We'll have to see.

Agree!

[PelicanBill]

This disturbance is still at 20% chance only, and the air currents take it inland over the Yucatan which gives it a very small window to develop before it loses energy.

 

[PelicanBill]

And the 5-day NOAA outlook shows no other likely development, and the long-range outlook for the last week in June also shows no likely development in the Atlantic and Caribbean basins.

[PelicanBill]

Time to watch the weather again.

We have a 20% chance of a Gulf development, but meanwhile 60% chance for our second named storm come via the intertropical convergence zone, cross the lower island chain and into the lower Caribbean. Islands to watch:  Barbados, St Vincent, Grenada, Aruba/Bonaire/Curacao.

 

[PelicanBill]

The Atlantic area is up to 70%, but the gulf area dropped to 0%. 

[PelicanBill]

Goodness, suddenly busy.  Gulf area back to 20% moving toward the Mexico/US border.

The red one we've been tracking is at 90% over 5 days and 70% over 2 days. So we expect to see this become a depression and likely a named storm soon.  It is still aiming toward the lower windward islands and very south/lower Caribbean.   And, a new yellow areas nearby with a 20% chance over 5 days.  That one would threaten more cruise itineraries if it develops and moves toward the northern islands.

[PelicanBill]

Tropical depression 2 now has a forecast. A very rare storm this far south, scraping South America and the “ABC” Islands. Possible hurricane when it reaches Honduras.

[PelicanBill]

Forecast has changed a little. Strength not at high upon reaching the Western Caribbean, if it makes hurricane will be just as it reaches Nicaragua as this revision.

 

Effects to be felt in: Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, and the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia.

 

A lot of uncertainty until we see what happens with land interaction.

[PelicanBill]

Status is still "potential" cyclone 2....

[PelicanBill]

I should update us on the gulf disturbance. It's moving slowly southwest and up to 40% chance to form a storm within 2 days, and could create a lot of rail on much of the Texas coast.

The other Atlantic disturbance has a 20% chance over 5 days.

 

[PelicanBill]

This is interesting. The sequence is over time showing probability of tropical cyclone formation. The gulf area looks a bit "hot" - at least it will not be a strong storm if it forms.

 

[PelicanBill]

Back to TD#2.  Although NOAA reminded is forecasts were uncertain, the path guidance has been consistent.  We are likely to see this cross Central America and continue in the Pacific!  What is interesting is the intensity forecast, showing a stronger storm in the Pacific 5-7 days out.

[PelicanBill]

A closer look at "95L" and Texas. I did not realize until now there is a sharp turn to the north expected.  That means Corpus Christi needs to prepare.  (Brownsville on the Mexico border still not off the hook.)  Could see flooding rains as far east as Houston.