Good news for those traveling to the Caribbean in the next week or two.

[kebhouse]

Knock on wood, but according to my favorite local meterologist, the Saharan dust should keep Atlantic hurricanes from forming for the next two weeks or so. July is typically not a very active hurricane month, but since we've already seen Beryl and this year is projected to be a heavy hurricane season, you never know what July will bring. Hopefully the Saharan dust will keep things calm for awhile. 
 

[Canuker]

All quiet on the Western Front  - for now, at least.

Yes, kebhouse; not much disturbance right now.

The National Hurricane Centre ("NHC") is watching a potential disturbance at about 10N 45W (as at July 26) but it doesn't look too menacing. It doesn't show up on an isobar map but the seas in that area are unusually warm...

As you say, massive clouds of bone-dry dust drifting west from the Sahara across the mid-Atlantic (currently reaching as far west as The Bahamas) are tending to squash depression formations. However, there is now a relatively lower pressure area circulating anticlockwise just SW of the Cape Verde Islands, the area in which many Atlantic tropical storms are born. It's worth keeping an eye on in case it deepens; it risks being carried westwards by the massive, immovable high pressure region over Bermuda and The Azores.

I'll update here if it looks like it is going to be an issue.

Whatever; as you say, kebhouse, it's plain sailing in and around the Caribbean for the next week or so.

[Canuker]

July 30. Well the system described in post #2 seems to be behaving itself. It has not intensified nor has it moved west. It's still harmlessly off The Cape Verde islands. Not a threat.

Meanwhile we have 2 depressions in the Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, again they seem to be fairly stationary - and avoidable.

 

 

[Birdnutty]

I appreciate the storm updates.  All the isobar and depression and high pressure areas, etc - it's all Greek to me. I thank you for boiling it all down to plain English - I think I understand that the Atlantic (Bermuda in particular) should be quiet for awhile.  Will be there mid-August and crossing fingers that we don't end up in Canada!

[Canuker]

If I was to choose a spot in the Atlantic this time of year - for weather - it would be Bermuda. The best that huge ocean has to offer. Almost certainly no bad weather or rough seas.

Perhaps a shower or two on your second night aboard and into the next day. Bermuda: light south to southwest breezes and light waves originating from the southeast. Again, perhaps the odd shower but altogether plenty of sun.

These typical short sharp showers are easy to spot. If you notice the locals are suddenly heading indoors for no apparent reason, it's a good bet it's about to rain - they know. Other than that, soak up the lovely weather BN. High temperatures: the mid-80s in the shade.

With the wind behind you on the way back to NYC, it may seem all but calm out on deck, especially on the starboard side.

Good luck with your birding.

Edited August 1 by Canuker

[Canuker]

Well, what a difference 4 days can make!

Birdnutty: better disregard my post #5.

Hurricanes and tropical storms that affect the southern States and the Caribbean are invariably born somewhere east of there, in the Atlantic.

Not Debbie.

Currently a category 1 hurricane with up to 65 knot (75mph) winds, she was born in the Gulf of Mexico, off the west Florida coast and, because of the very warm waters there, hatched surprisingly quickly. It will cross northern Florida and southern Georgia, then make its way up the East coast.

For your Saturday departure from NYC, she'll have been downgraded to a tropical storm, winds of around 40 knots. By the time you're scheduled to leave, the storm's centre should be off the coast of NYC or Connecticut.

Your ship would ordinarily take a fairly straight line SE to Bermuda. I can envisage the captain either taking a more southerly course, nearer the coastline then swinging left at some point towards Bermuda (to skirt the storm and use the trailing winds) or perhaps delaying the departure from NYC waiting for the depression to move further up the coast.

If it hasn't passed NYC by late afternoon on Saturday, winds will be onshore and you're looking at a possible delayed departure. 

Now all this assumes, of course, that the ship was able to dock on time from its previous cruise...

Yes, I'd be prepared for the possibility you will not depart on schedule.

I see you live in Connecticut. So presumably you won't be flying in the NYC? At least that's not going to delay you. But others from further afield whose flights are affected will be delayed getting to the ship.

As to the rest of your vacation - don't forget the umbrella...

Some good news for you: as a birdwatcher, there's always the chance some birds will have been thrown off course and have taken refuge in Bermuda.

 

Edited August 5 by Canuker