GEM Has Storm in Florida Next Week

[NJBill]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

529 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007

 

VALID 12Z MON JUL 16 2007 - 12Z THU JUL 19 2007

 

00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROF OVER SERN CANADA DURING THE

MEDIUM RANGE PD...BUT DIFFER ON HOW MUCH INROADS TROF MAKES INTO

NWRN US FROM PAC. GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND

GEM GLOBAL THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD

APPROACH AS PER THE ECMWF/UKMET FOR PRELIM PROGS. USED ECMWF

DETAILS ELSEWHERE AS WELL...BASED ON STABLE SOLUTIONS OVER THE

PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND TYPICAL STRONG PERFORMANCE DURING THE MEDIUM

RANGE. GFS HAS BACKED CONSIDERABLY OFF ITS RETROGRESSION OF ATL

RIDGE INTO THE ERN US IT WAS DEPICTING 24 HRS AGO. GEM GLOBAL

STILL INSISTS ON BRINGING HURRICANE INTO SRN FL AT THE END OF THE

PD...A SOLUTION REJECTED AS AN OUTLIER DESPITE THE MODELS

CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

[SillySoul]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

529 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007

 

VALID 12Z MON JUL 16 2007 - 12Z THU JUL 19 2007

 

00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROF OVER SERN CANADA DURING THE

MEDIUM RANGE PD...BUT DIFFER ON HOW MUCH INROADS TROF MAKES INTO

NWRN US FROM PAC. GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND

GEM GLOBAL THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD

APPROACH AS PER THE ECMWF/UKMET FOR PRELIM PROGS. USED ECMWF

DETAILS ELSEWHERE AS WELL...BASED ON STABLE SOLUTIONS OVER THE

PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND TYPICAL STRONG PERFORMANCE DURING THE MEDIUM

RANGE. GFS HAS BACKED CONSIDERABLY OFF ITS RETROGRESSION OF ATL

RIDGE INTO THE ERN US IT WAS DEPICTING 24 HRS AGO. GEM GLOBAL

STILL INSISTS ON BRINGING HURRICANE INTO SRN FL AT THE END OF THE

PD...A SOLUTION REJECTED AS AN OUTLIER DESPITE THE MODELS

CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

Im in South Florida and so far our newscasts are saying some rain storms we always get, but nothing to bother anyone execpt for getting a bit wet. No tropical systems.

[JanineM]

We're in Central Florida and they're forecasting scattered thunderstorms. Our area (coastal east of Orlando) is on the western edge of a Bermuda high, which is bringing some rain. No mention of anything tropical! KNOCKING WOOD!!!

[Silvery Seas Cruiser]

We also live in South Florida. Neither the Miami nor the West Palm Beach TV weather men are even hinting at a hurricane. Not saying it cannot or will not happen. Stranger things have happened. I surely hope it doesn't though.

 

Anyway, I hope it goes over Lake Okeechobee if it does come because that lake desperately needs the rain.

[Luecke5]

We will be the Orlando area next week (Wed-Sat) before getting on a cruise ship Sunday. I hope we're not rained on the whole time! We've had nothing but rain here in Oklahoma ALL summer!

[Bequia]

Bring it on.....:cool:

[SillySoul]

We will be the Orlando area next week (Wed-Sat) before getting on a cruise ship Sunday. I hope we're not rained on the whole time! We've had nothing but rain here in Oklahoma ALL summer!

This is the rainy season so showers in the afternoon are normal.

[cusyl]

We are having a drought here in the Tampa Bay area. Our grass is all brown and the leaves on our plants are drooping. We need rain badly.:o

[*Mach*]

Ooops... guess someone missed:

 

ABNT20 KNHC 180218TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER BEVEN

 

Ya' know... they can't even accurately tell me what the weather will be like 12 hours from now.Most forecasts are a bust and, sadly, hurricane forecasters have been missing worse than anyone else.