Frances to Visit Port canaveral

[Joe_Scarfone]

It looks like the new forecast is for Frances to hit near Jacksonville 8AM Sunday. Check it out here:

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/311513W5.gif

 

Also, it seems the computer models that the hurricane center uses to make that forecast are shifting more to the right, so it looks like the ridge may be in the verge of weakining. Lets hope it keeps shifting to the right and goes far away!

 

-Joe

[AdrieneAGD]

I talked to our on-site meteorologist, and he said that most American models are currently pointing for this hurricane to make landfall between Charleston, SC and Wilmington, NC. However, most European models are still predicting south Florida.

 

Therefore, the official track released by the NHC is falling pretty much between those two tracks, leaning more toward the European models since they have remained more consistent with their predictions than the American models have.

 

That said, the American models have for the most part been run since the Euro models were. It'll be interesting to see what the 5pm forecast says if they're able to run some Euro models before then.

[springtxbill]

It's good to know that the Euro's can model hurricanes better than us.

[AdrieneAGD]

It's good to know that the Euro's can model hurricanes better than us.

 

I said the European models have been more *consistent,* not more *accurate.* The Euro models haven't changed their projected path over the past few days as much as the US models have.

 

That said, the US models have, for the most part, been run since the Euro models have.

[flamingosun]

It's good to know that the Euro's can model hurricanes better than us.

snicker snicker

[Sea Island Lady]

Not mention the stress of trying to find clothes for formal night in the middle of all this, too!!!! Priorities Priorities!:)

I think you should go with the black slicker look...it's waterproof!:D Glad to know that you can have a sense of humor in all this.

 

The weather channel just said that the hurricane was keeping North of the Caribbean, but headed toward South Florida.

[Cruising89143]

I'm set to leave tomorrow morning driving to Pt. Canaveral from Atlanta. I decided to rent a car just in case the storm does come ashore around the Cape before we return. It won't be my car floating out to sea.:) I know that we will leave on Thursday but the big question is where we will go. I called Carnival this morning and of course it is too early for them to make any kind of statements on changes.

[420]

If you do hear something before you leave, please post it here. I'm leaving from the same place on Friday, and am quite eager to find out what's going on ... I'm guessing they will make a statement on your trip before mine.

 

Thanks in advance,

SKM

[ErinFl2003]

We are booked on Carnival Fantasy to depart Thursday, Sept 2 at 4:30pm for the Bahamas. I just called the Carnival hotline and as of yet they haven't decided what to do. I was told to call back tomorrow for updated information. There shouldn't be a problem departing from Port Canveral on Thursday but we're due to return on Sunday at 7am. Where in the world would we go for those three nights? The idea of bouncing around in the atlantic isn't my idea of paradise but that may be the new itinerary. Anyway, we're proceeding as if the cruise will depart as scheduled and are determined to make the best of it. We live in Orlando and made it through Charley with almost no damage. I just hope we all make it through this one as well.

[flamingosun]

ErinFl2003, you may be in for a bit of an adventure.

[Jacquelyn11]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/312053W5.gif

 

Just a projection, but Port Canaveral looks like it's "in the way"! :eek:

 

FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A

MAJOR HURRICANE.

 

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. AS INDICATED

PREVIOUSLY... DURING THE THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE HURRICANE WILL

BE MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST STEERED BY A STRONG

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE VARIES

WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN.

HOWEVER...ALL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST

OF THE UNITED STATES IN TRACKS RANGING FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA

NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS....WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

WHICH...IN FACT...HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT TAKING INTO

CONSIDERATION THE NEW NOGAPS AND GFDN RUNS. THE FLORIDA STATE

UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD.

 

 

Jacquelyn :D

[flamingosun]

For now... Could change several more times before this time tomorrow. sure hope so. THINK ENE and maybe it will turn East North East and head out into the Atlantic and spare us all.

 

We are starting to make preparations just in case. Have access to a person w/ a pick-up truck at dawn tomorrow for going to HD for window boarding materials. Hope there's some left by then...

[jrm9999]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/312053W5.gif

 

Just a projection, but Port Canaveral looks like it's "in the way"! :eek:

 

FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A

MAJOR HURRICANE.

 

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. AS INDICATED

PREVIOUSLY... DURING THE THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE HURRICANE WILL

BE MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST STEERED BY A STRONG

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE VARIES

WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN.

HOWEVER...ALL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST

OF THE UNITED STATES IN TRACKS RANGING FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA

NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS....WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

WHICH...IN FACT...HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT TAKING INTO

CONSIDERATION THE NEW NOGAPS AND GFDN RUNS. THE FLORIDA STATE

UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD.

 

 

Jacquelyn :D

 

Its pretty early to determine that. If you read the NOAA forcast advisories though they state:

 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

 

Thats a huge margin. It's too early to say for sure where it will go.

 

I personally wish they would do away with the tracking line and just show the probable strike areas as it is just to unpredictable. In fact, showing the line is exactly how many in southwest Florida were not prepared because they thought it would hit Tampa.

[springtxbill]

With hurricane winds being in a 100 mile diameter, it will do a lot of damage on either side of a direct hit and with the angle of approach will cover a large amount of coastline.

[Florida Beach]

For now... Could change several more times before this time tomorrow. sure hope so. THINK ENE and maybe it will turn East North East and head out into the Atlantic and spare us all.

 

We are starting to make preparations just in case. Have access to a person w/ a pick-up truck at dawn tomorrow for going to HD for window boarding materials. Hope there's some left by then...

Flamingosun, where should we run if Frances decides to visit us:eek: since Florida is so skinny and the diameter of this hurricane is about 70 miles :eek: eeewww.

[jrm9999]

At the 5PM report, the hurricane force winds extended outward from the eye up to 70 miles, so the total diameter is about 140 miles, assuming even distribution all the way around which is usually not the case.

Wwith the error range for day 4 as posted above at 250 NM (thats about 287 land miles), it could go above or below the line they show by that much. At one extreme it could be southeast florida and another extreme not hit at all.

[flamingosun]

FloridaBeach -
(Hi there!)
Take a look at next Ch 13 report. With hurricane force winds out 70 miles from the center, IF it comes in here, you would have to get beyond Lake county to get out of hurricane winds and just into tropical storm strength winds. That's a hike on packed roadways, which they undoubetdly will be.

Do you have friends / relatives in the panhandle?(Just a thought) We are thinking of visiting my nephew in Tallahassee.

[hkolln]

Well we are in Jacksonville FL and just waiting to see what happens with Francis. You know, even now it is WAY too early to predict what is going on with it...alot of factors can determine where it heads. Only thing we can all do is pray and be prepared. Remember be safe and material things can be replaced!! Good luck to everyone in it's path.

[yarlenna]

For those of us in Florida - this is all too ugly and too soon. We still have debris from Charlie in our yard and the county probably won't have it picked up by Saturday. We are all old or infirm so doing it ourselves is not an option. I would love to evacuate - but with the forcast changing almost every hour, I don't know where to head to. I am reminded of one family who left Tampa for Charlie and went to Punta Gorda because the storm was much less likely to strike there. Please pray for all the folks in harms way with this one. It looks ugly. I imagine that several ships will either be diverted or depart early or late because of this one.

[flamingosun]

Where are you, Yarlenna?

[Florida Beach]

My brother left St. Peterburg (to avoid Charley) around 3:00PM and didn't get here (East Coast) until 10:00PM :eek: . If everyone on the East Coast all head North on Thursday, we sure will have a bottle neck before we can get out of Florida.

I have relatives in Tampa, St. Pete, Orlando and Boca Raton; Friends in Tallahassee, St. Augustine; Relatives in North and South Carolina - So, IF Frances decides to visit, she will sure run into at least one of us:rolleyes:

When should we leave????

[flamingosun]

I don't think they will make a mandatory evacuation order for the barrier islands until sometime Thursday... maybe early afternoon, I don't think any sooner. But that's just my guess.
I would like to get away by midday on Thursday if we can.
We will probably have use most of tomorrow for preparations. How are your preparations going?

[Florida Beach]

We didn't have time to buy plywood. Besides, there are so may windows and sliding glass doors in our house. All of our windows and doors are custom made, irregular in sizes and shapes :( .

We plan to go to Tampa, but it seems like the storm this size will follow us in no time. My sister (in Orlando) is still recovering from Charley and now has to deal with Frances. What a season!

[flamingosun]

We are buying plywood tomorrow morning...

A little good news. The 11:00pm advisory predicts landfall between Vero Beach an Ft Pierce, instead of Cape Canaveral... The'll have another point tomorrow when we wake up, though.

FloridaBeach - one thing you can do is elevate the pieces of furniture you would be most concerned about. We are putting bricks or blocks under the legs of or leather sora, chair and loveseat and putting some smaller pieces on beds in guest rooms...
Remember, that most insurance does NOT cover damage as a result of rising water. So, if any water seeps in under doors, etc, and you have a couple of inches in the floor, it's not covered. That's why we elevate some pieces. Just takes a few blocks or bricks and a few minutes. Not much you can do to protect carpets, however.

PS They finally got the Atlas launched tonight!! Yay!!!

[jrm9999]

It is still too far away to tell for sure, but definately something for everyone to watch and prepare for if in a possible affected area. If you read the disscussion of the latest advisory, the computer models predict everything from hitting South Carolina to SE Florida. Below is a quote from it discussing this:

THE MODELS DIVERGE AND DIVIDE INTO THREE DISTINCT TRACK
PATTERNS. THE GFDL AND GFDN RACE FRANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF SOUTH CAROLINA IN 96-120 HR...THE GFS...MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM...
AND UKMET MODELS TAKE FRANCES MORE SLOWLY INTO EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
IN 96-120 HR...WHILE THE NOGAPS...LBAR..12Z ECMWF...AND THE ETA
MODELS MOVE FRANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA IN ABOUT 72 HR.