Have the cruise lines overexpanded?

[G'ma]

You have knocked RCI at every turn right here on this very board. Why don't you keep it on the Carnivore board? You cannot document the on board charges because you have no idea of what RCI charges for and what they don't. You are just grasping at straws. I gave actual facts. What did you give? :rolleyes:

 

I know all about the history of Carnivore. I was once one of those folks until I got smart, opened my eyes and realized that there was a much better cruise line out there that actually treated their guests like they wanted them back. Too bad Carnivore hasn't figured it out.

 

Also, not being defensive. It's one thing to share an opinion but it's another to make statements that are not true or misleading and in your case you have done plenty here on this board and not just this post. Not even sure why you hang out over here other than to just stir the pot.

 

In my opinion, you are being very rude. I'm not personally attacking you or anyone else on any of these boards....and I expect the same in return.

 

We are all free to express our opinons here....but we are NOT free to bash people personally. I request you cease your personal attacks immediately.

[Cruising89143]

In my opinion' date=' you are being very rude. I'm not personally attacking you or anyone else on any of these boards....and I expect the same in return.

 

We are all free to express our opinons here....but we are NOT free to bash people personally. I request you cease your personal attacks immediately.[/quote']

 

Not attacking you at all. If you are going to make blanket statements about a cruise line on a cruise board then expect folks to question your comments. Simple as that. I for one will correct someone if they are giving out incorrect information. If you feel that I am attacking you then hit the triangle.

[Maraprince]

It would be nice to see some originality among the major lines. Lately it seems to be follow the leader or just playing catch up.

 

The bigger the ships get, the more people needed to fill them up. These larger ships cannot fit through the Panama Canal so they must take the longer way around consuming more fuel. All the lines bet on Europe and the Med being the next hot spot for 2008. Well, turned out with the economy they were all wrong! Thanks to the high airfares, the high euro exchange and the result of inflation, most Americans aren't crossing the Atlantic. Now, it seems the problem is also spreading to the UK. Many days in NYC I run into either Brits or Irish visitors who come here due to the favorable exchange rate vs. the $. They love our "low" prices and the great selection of merchandise offered as well. It is not usual to find out that some come here for just the weekend due to the favorable pricing. Much cheaper for them to come to NY and shop than to do so back home. That has to say a lot!

 

To say the least, I would not envy the decisions that the cruise lines need to make to stay in business. More than anything the ports will play a bigger part than ever. If passengers do not have to fly, they will be more willing to travel.

 

As far as charging for more things on board, if the base fare isn't pushed too high, it might be the right decision for RCCL. However, if the fare goes too high, passengers will less inclined to spend on board. High RCCL tour prices are forcing passengers to be very selective on what they purchase. Especially if the ports have either local transportation readily available or can be seen on foot, or the same tour can be purchased for less ashore, passengers will not be getting them from RCCL.

 

If the quality of food in the regular dining rooms remains at the same level, there is no urgent need to pay extra for the speciality restaurants unless the passenger wants to experience something different or to celebrate an occasion. If the money is spent on food, there is less money to be spent on the shops or beverages, etc.

 

This is just my opinion.

 

 

MARAPRINCE

[MattInFLL]

shaggy, that is going to happen, but it is/was not happening yet. China and India are growing consumers of fossil fuels, but in the last 6 months they did not suddenly double their consumption.

 

There is no real economic basis that supports the kind of skyrocketing rises we have seen. It is speculation and fear at work.

 

Exxon Mobil spent more buying back its own stock last year than it did on exploring for new oil and gas. It has 43 million acres of undeveloped tracts in economically viable places it is just sitting on.

 

----

As for cruising - I am doing my part to keep the cruise lines afloat. We booked the Navigator today, and we plan to book Oasis. :)

[ehfl]

Since new ships take years of planning, they are based on long term projections. They cannot micro-manage the short term ups and downs of the economy, when it takes many years to plan and build a new ship.

[Moeve]

Are you people listening?!? Yes the rest of the world is feeling the high oil price but certainly not as bad as most americans. Ther is a simple reason for that our gov haven't been play 3 monkeies over the years. Houses here need to be built to certain conservation standards, heating units have to be replaced once they reach a certain age, houses require a certain insulation......most europeans have always driven more economical cars.

 

Now there is the housing "crisis" well excuse me but that is a US thing really because in most other parts of the world house finanzing does not work that way.

 

Many posters here think that US cruisers are the navel of the world - well this may not be something you like to hear but that may truely be a thing of the past - other economies are more stable than that of the US right now and can weather this storm far better.

 

As for the med not quite taking off well take a closer look - there were more than double the ships in the med this year than have ever been in the Carribbean at one time - you all forget the local ships here. That is not a bad cut. Bearing in mind that even on RCCL and Carnival corporations ships had much larger groups of other nationalites - these markets are still growing - the north american market is not.

[isujim]

aqha - I agree with you, so much of this has to do with fear and buying into the fear.

 

 

At any rate, all this gnashing of teeth here and in the media, and yet hardly anyone talks about the fact that our current gas price crisis could very well be a myth. Demand for oil was actually trending down over these past couple of years. Supply of oil was not really declining. Economics 101, when demand falls and supply is steady - prices are supposed to drop. But wait, our prices skyrocketed, completely against basic economic theory.

 

Hmmmm.

 

No matter what your political leanings, this should make you wonder what's really going on here.

 

Are you serious?? I'm not even sure what to post in response........:eek:

[Gonzo70]

aqha - I agree with you, so much of this has to do with fear and buying into the fear.

 

Sure, the housing crisis is an issue, but the real difference with this downturn as opposed to those in recent memory is the price of gas. Our economy is so based on vehicles and transport, that it affects almost everything we do. (But I will remind those who can remember the 1970's downturn, that not only did gas go through the roof, but it was scarce and rationed - and yet we all survived, and we will again.)

 

At any rate, all this gnashing of teeth here and in the media, and yet hardly anyone talks about the fact that our current gas price crisis could very well be a myth. Demand for oil was actually trending down over these past couple of years. Supply of oil was not really declining. Economics 101, when demand falls and supply is steady - prices are supposed to drop. But wait, our prices skyrocketed, completely against basic economic theory.

 

Hmmmm.

 

No matter what your political leanings, this should make you wonder what's really going on here.

 

Sadly you are completely misinformed. Demand for oil has skyrocketed in the past couple of years due mainly to the rapid growth of countries such as China and India. This is not the same scenario as the gas crisis in the 1970s; it is very possible that oil will not go back down significantly and very likely that it will keep going up.

[Gonzo70]

There is no real economic basis that supports the kind of skyrocketing rises we have seen. It is speculation and fear at work.

 

. :)

 

To the contrary; it is speculation that is keeping us from having a massive oil crisis. Speculation causes a constant flow of oil. If it were not for speculation far less oil would be flowing into the economy as suppliers would be holding back anticipating better prices for their prodcut down the road. Speculation prevents this from occurring.

[Gonzo70]

Does anyone know the current debt load of the two companies? I was reading an article yesterday from some analyst who was concerned about RCI debt load, but I have no idea how it compares to CCL.

 

RCL has far more debt per equity than CCL.

[G'ma]

Not attacking you at all. If you are going to make blanket statements about a cruise line on a cruise board then expect folks to question your comments. Simple as that. I for one will correct someone if they are giving out incorrect information. If you feel that I am attacking you then hit the triangle.

 

I don't mind questioning....I DO mind accusations and I do mind when a poster becomes too personal and attacks the messenger instead of the message....

 

I have avoided the triangle...you have a long history with this board and I am hoping that reason will prevail. Someone with your expertise and information could certainly get your point across civily.

 

My posts seem to irritate you - and, I know that feeling. I, too, am irritated by some people. Instead of bashing or attacking, I simply put that person on my ignore list... That option is open to you also......

[Bakincakes]

How much US oil is exported to other countries?:confused:

[BobBeaSea]

How much US oil is exported to other countries?:confused:

 

Currently the U.S. does supply oil and products of oil to other countries. This amount is currently a little less than 14 thousand barrels equivalent per day April 08. March was heavier - the equivalent of 29,000 barrels equivalent per day. The average for the last 3 years is approximately 27,000 barrels equivalent per day.

 

It has to be remembered that U.S. exports are insignificant, the U.S. consumes approximately 20 MILLION barrels per day of which about 65% is imported. I haven't checked to see where it goes but I'm thinking products would go to Israel, Mexico and perhaps part of eastern Canada. (Canada is still the largest supplier of oil and oil products to the U.S. - about 2.5 MILLION barrels per day. The Saudis are now in second - depending on what month. Mexico's oil production is in decline right now.

 

I can't even begin to describe the world oil situation right now - it's that bad. Production is declining or will soon decline in most of the non OPEC nations and some OPEC nations as well. If world consumption tries to get ahead of 85 million barrels per day we are all in for a world of big time pain.

[The Big Booper]

 

.... <snip> I can't even begin to describe the world oil situation right now - it's that bad. Production is declining or will soon decline in most of the non OPEC nations and some OPEC nations as well. If world consumption tries to get ahead of 85 million barrels per day we are all in for a world of big time pain.

 

Which means for economic survival we should be implementing extensive exploration and drilling programs NOW. Anwar, the coastal shelves, the Dakotas. No reason we can't do that as well as Nukes and alternative sources, don't put all our eggs in one basket, which may not pan out.

 

JMHO

[BobBeaSea]

Which means for economic survival we should be implementing extensive exploration and drilling programs NOW. Anwar, the coastal shelves, the Dakotas. No reason we can't do that as well as Nukes and alternative sources, don't put all our eggs in one basket, which may not pan out.

 

JMHO

 

Every single drop is important. The President needs to rescind the Executive Order (signed by GHW Bush) which placed a moratorium on coastal drilling and Congress needs to persuade the states involved it is in everyones' best interests. Having said this, the stark conclusion is this won't be anywhere near enough. ANWAR may have reserves of 10-15 billion barrels of which only 7-10 billion might be recoverable at a maximum production rate of about 1 million barrels per day before going into decline.

 

The coasts, at a preliminary look, might be good for a total of 18 billion barrels (hopefully more) with a production rate unknown at this time. As for the Bakken, it may not be the motherlode as once thought.

 

It sounds like a lot of oil but when one considers the U.S. currently consumes 7 to 7.5 billion barrels per year it puts things into perspective, but, like I said above, every drop is important.

[Gonzo70]

Which means for economic survival we should be implementing extensive exploration and drilling programs NOW. Anwar, the coastal shelves, the Dakotas. No reason we can't do that as well as Nukes and alternative sources, don't put all our eggs in one basket, which may not pan out.

 

JMHO

 

Agreed; I am very frustrated with the lack of progress in this area. This needs to be combined with ramping up research on finding an economically viable alternative energy as taking advantage of our own resources will help, but is far from a long term solution; it simply will buy some time.

[cot427]

My post is not cruise related, but I can't beleive Starbucks is going to close 600 stores. I really hope they don't close the one near me, actually, its not even in my town, but the next one over, and its usually really busy, so let's hope for the best.

[BobBeaSea]

My post is not cruise related, but I can't beleive Starbucks is going to close 600 stores. I really hope they don't close the one near me, actually, its not even in my town, but the next one over, and its usually really busy, so let's hope for the best.

 

If its a money loser or marginal performer - its gone. Sounds like yours is OK.

[BobBeaSea]

Agreed; I am very frustrated with the lack of progress in this area. This needs to be combined with ramping up research on finding an economically viable alternative energy as taking advantage of our own resources will help, but is far from a long term solution; it simply will buy some time.

 

Everyone is frustrated and will continue to be even more frustrated. Fully 70% of our oil consumption is for transportation fuels (gasoline, diesel, aviation, marine etc.) As I write this, there is nothing, nada, zip that can replace oil or even put a major dent into oil consumption where transportation fuel is concerned - absolutely nothing. You can forget electric, hydrogen, nuclear, bio-fuels, ethanol etc. Just impossible to replace oil based fuels. The best thought, and only thought at the moment is more efficient use of fuel i.e. conservation.

 

We went through a transformation after the 1st oil crisis in 1973 (with a second to follow in '79). We started to produce smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles, learned to be far more efficient in energy consumption and on and on. Then we got lazy, a whole bunch of "new oil" came on line at the same time period (Cantarell, North Slope, North Sea etc.). The result was we over produced (partly to teach the Gulf states a lesson), oil crashed and we went back to our bad old ways with even bigger vehicles.

 

This time there is no North Slope, North Sea or Cantarell ready to ramp up. Russia is overextending itself (10 million barrels per day with reserves of about 80 billion total) and will do severe damage to their fields. We have the emerging and producing nations consuming oil at massive year over year increases. We have also consumed hundreds of billions of barrels since the late '70's. Its currently an oil world completely unlike that of 1980 and a lot of folks are starting to catch on.

[Lightsluvr]

Currently the U.S. does supply oil and products of oil to other countries. This amount is currently a little less than 14 thousand barrels equivalent per day April 08. March was heavier - the equivalent of 29,000 barrels equivalent per day. The average for the last 3 years is approximately 27,000 barrels equivalent per day.

 

I thought that the vast majority of the crude from the Alaska Pipeline was shipped overseas. The Pipeline averages over 700,000 Barrels of crude every day. They have capacity to store around 9 Billion Barrels of crude. That is still a small percentage of the total demand, but much more than cited above...

 

I have fingers crossed for development of ANWR oil field. It reportedly has more reserves than all of the Middle East nations combined...

 

JMHO.

 

LL

[BobBeaSea]

I thought that the vast majority of the crude from the Alaska Pipeline was shipped overseas. The Pipeline averages over 700,000 Barrels of crude every day. They have capacity to store around 9 Billion Barrels of crude. That is still a small percentage of the total demand, but much more than cited above...

 

I have fingers crossed for development of ANWR oil field. It reportedly has more reserves than all of the Middle East nations combined...

 

JMHO.

 

LL

 

ANWAR is almost insignificant on the world oil stage. Total reserves, as I mentioned above MIGHT be around 10 billion barrels. If so, this would increase U.S. reserves to about 30 billion barrels from the current 20 billion or so. Virtually all of Alaskan oil heads south to the U.S. My numbers (and I track them daily) are from the U.S. EIA. I have a feeling what you have been "told or heard" is a great part of the problem - very few understand the state of things. There are 5 countries in the Middle East who own 65% of the entire planet's known conventional oil reserves (about 740 billion barrels). The entire U.S. reserves of conventional oil, including ANWAR projections, is about 30 billion barrels.

 

You do have the North Slope production number about right, its been ranging from 701,000 to 740,000 barrels per day. This field has been and will continue to decline from previous highs of around a million barrels per day.

[temple1]

Instead of investing in more oil and building more roads, why not invest in in rail? Other countries are not as hard hit because they are less reliant on individual automobiles for transportation.

 

We waste so much oil and now people want to further rape our lands, waters and air to produce more oil. It is insanity!

[MattInFLL]

BobBeaSea, if you are right and I am wrong (which is certainly more than possible), then really this will be a good thing. As you said, we learned after the gas lines of the 70's. If this is a prolonged wake up call, then somehow, some way we will figure out an alternative that does work. I think it is too early to say that the alternative sources of energy will not work. Mankind always seems to come up with a way, especially when there is an economic incentive. In the mean time, truck and SUV sales have plunged (something I happen to follow on an almost daily basis) at a rate that is shaking up the car industry in a way it has never seen before. Fuel efficient cars are being embraced. Conservation is happening. That will have a long term effect.

 

And if you go back in history, there have been plenty of times when those in the know have predicted that the last drop of oil was about to flow... and somehow they always found more. Of course that is not going to happen forever, but you know as well as I do that there are untapped sources that are becoming economically viable as prices go up.

 

I also take exception to - whoever it was, I forget - that acted like I was crazy to even suggest that something else could be at work. I lived in Los Angeles during the electricity crisis a few years ago... where the "experts" told us every day about how the prices skyrocketed because of our huge demand and scarce supply. We had rolling brownouts because we had to be forced to conserve. Yeah right.

Oh but what really caused it? A few people at Enron playing with the market and driving the price up. A few people at Enron forced a major metropolitan area into rolling brownouts to force up the price of their commodity. That scandal sent the governor packing, and allowed Arnold to get into office.

But hey, history does repeat doesn't it? Let's go back to the 1930's - when Los Angeles had a viable public transportation system. What happened to it? General Motors bought it and shut it down to make way for the automobile.

So, while my numbers may be off, and I may not be an oil expert - the sudden meteoric increase is fishy. And if you truly want to put your trust in big oil, so be it.

[BobBeaSea]

BobBeaSea, if you are right and I am wrong (which is certainly more than possible), then really this will be a good thing. As you said, we learned after the gas lines of the 70's. If this is a prolonged wake up call, then somehow, some way we will figure out an alternative that does work. I think it is too early to say that the alternative sources of energy will not work. Mankind always seems to come up with a way, especially when there is an economic incentive. In the mean time, truck and SUV sales have plunged (something I happen to follow on an almost daily basis) at a rate that is shaking up the car industry in a way it has never seen before. Fuel efficient cars are being embraced. Conservation is happening. That will have a long term effect.

 

And if you go back in history, there have been plenty of times when those in the know have predicted that the last drop of oil was about to flow... and somehow they always found more. Of course that is not going to happen forever, but you know as well as I do that there are untapped sources that are becoming economically viable as prices go up.

 

I also take exception to - whoever it was, I forget - that acted like I was crazy to even suggest that something else could be at work. I lived in Los Angeles during the electricity crisis a few years ago... where the "experts" told us every day about how the prices skyrocketed because of our huge demand and scarce supply. We had rolling brownouts because we had to be forced to conserve. Yeah right.

Oh but what really caused it? A few people at Enron playing with the market and driving the price up. A few people at Enron forced a major metropolitan area into rolling brownouts to force up the price of their commodity. That scandal sent the governor packing, and allowed Arnold to get into office.

But hey, history does repeat doesn't it? Let's go back to the 1930's - when Los Angeles had a viable public transportation system. What happened to it? General Motors bought it and shut it down to make way for the automobile.

So, while my numbers may be off, and I may not be an oil expert - the sudden meteoric increase is fishy. And if you truly want to put your trust in big oil, so be it.

 

Actually I agree with much you have to say. Big oil should be watched like a hawk :). I remember the Enron-California fiasco very well - greed and fraud at its worst. As for today's oil prices I think speculation may be a wrong adjective. There is no doubt more money is chasing commodoties, of which oil is a biggie. More bidders bidding more money on futures contracts usually means higher prices. If I was to guess at the impact I'd say around $30.00 - $35.00 /barrel.

 

In terms of the future my money is on coming up with the technology to handle shale deposits in the western USA. I really believe this is the path to work on. If we can find and/or create the technology do this we are OK. It won't be easy as the EROEI will be horrendous. Finding something to replace the internal combustion engine on the scale necessary is not in the cards. In the meantime, the world is not running out of oil, my point is the damage will occur a long, long time before the oil is gone. The abundant and easy to pump cheap oil is gone, we are working on what is left and more and more people on the planet want to buy it.

[Gonzo70]

ANWAR is almost insignificant on the world oil stage. Total reserves, as I mentioned above MIGHT be around 10 billion barrels. If so, this would increase U.S. reserves to about 30 billion barrels from the current 20 billion or so.

 

Although if the shale deposits could be harnessed in Colorado and neighboring states in an economically viable and environmentally appropriate manner, the U.S. could be largely energy independent (and even make money exporting oil) for sufficient time to develop affordable renewable energy.

 

Edit: Ooops, I see you addressed this in a later post. :)