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Have the cruise lines overexpanded?


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Instead of investing in more oil and building more roads, why not invest in in rail? Other countries are not as hard hit because they are less reliant on individual automobiles for transportation.

 

We waste so much oil and now people want to further rape our lands, waters and air to produce more oil. It is insanity!

 

The thread has drifted off topic... have the cruiselines over-extended?

 

But with respect to rail, it works great where you have huge concentrations of population... just look at the corridor between Washington, D.C. and New York City... oh wait, that doesn't work either since the government took it over...

 

We need the car that runs on water... oh wait, there's a shortage of water, too... oh my.

 

LL

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At any rate, all this gnashing of teeth here and in the media, and yet hardly anyone talks about the fact that our current gas price crisis could very well be a myth. Demand for oil was actually trending down over these past couple of years. Supply of oil was not really declining. Economics 101, when demand falls and supply is steady - prices are supposed to drop. But wait, our prices skyrocketed, completely against basic economic theory.

 

 

Matt you know I love you, but.... US demand has decreased, true. World demand has increased dramatically. They are entering the 20th century in India and China and cars are flying into the hands of people who 20 years ago had a mule and a rickshaw or a bicycle. China has maintained low gasoline prices in their market, although they have raised the prices a bit recently, but still are selling gas at relatively inexpensive levels. In China they don't care about air pollution or Not in my backyard thinking that we agonize over, and they are building gasoline refineries. Oil and even gasoline are very fungible and looking at US supply and demand is like the blind men and the elephant parable.

 

It is silly to think that the US oil companies are rigging the game, when the US oil companies while large are tiny compared to the real big players in the oil industry. I am sitting in a hotel in Geneva Switzerland as I type this reply, and I can tell you the gas prices are affecting our European Brothers and Sisters too. I put 47 liters of gas in my car today and it cost right at $100. That is about 12 gallons.

 

jc

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Here is the link to the Bloomberg video. Of course the person in the video has a much different take on the Oasis than some of our so called cruise experts here. I guess thirty years as a TA does not make one an expert. ;)

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vm2jnQzf.M3Y.asf

 

I don't think I'll get into all the quibbling on this thread, although I am ever so tempted to become involved. :D

 

I did see and listen to the Bloomberg video. I hope the speaker is correct. I have been buying RCL on the way down. This is a speculative move, but if the stock gets back to its prior level, or close to it, I will be substantially ahead. If the stock does not recover, well, it's only money. I may lose what I gained a few years ago on WMB.

 

Without going into any arguable detail, I think the price of oil will ease within the next year.

 

Bob :cool:

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it seems that the RC line isnt so much expanding as it is evolving...as they introduce new ships like Independence, Oasis and Allure...older ones like Empress and Sov are being cycled out to other lines...true they are within the company but its really a different market that Pullmantar services

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it seems that the RC line isnt so much expanding as it is evolving...as they introduce new ships like Independence, Oasis and Allure...older ones like Empress and Sov are being cycled out to other lines...true they are within the company but its really a different market that Pullmantar services

 

Though the newer ships carry a lot more people, so in essence they are still expanding.

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Don't worry JC, I have no trouble with a difference of opinion :)

 

Did you pay $100 US or $100 euro? If euros, then they really are feeling it. If dollars, then with the current exchange rate, is it that much more than we are paying here? I remember several years ago filling up my brother's Yaris in Greece and it costing a fortune (to me) and the europeans just sort of shrugged at me. And I remember it being somewhere in the neighborhood of $4-$5 gallon US...

 

Anyway, forgetting oil for a minute. I truly do think Oasis will be a hit. My TA said that they are already experiencing strong pre-demand at top dollar. Will that carry through week to week after the "newness" wears off? We have to wait and see.

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Any thoughts regarding solar energy for ships? Since some areas in Europe (one of the Scandanvian countries, can't remember which one) was written up in one of the weekly news magazines touting the benefits -- no pollution, less cost, etc., -- ships may want to consider it as a way of cutting operating costs. Some home owners have already installed solar panels and benefitted from the reduced costs.

 

Ships are getting bigger because the lines feel that more passengers means more on board revenue. If the passengers they attract do not look for extra services and spend money for drinks and in the casino and the speciality restaurants, they may break even. However, if the price of the cruise, speciality restaurants, drinks and shore excursions prove to be too high, people will only pay for so much before they will look for other alternatives off shore. That seems to be why passengers have been trying to bring their own liquor, soda and water on board instead of paying the ship's pricing plus an additional 15% for service. Also, passengers are booking their own shore excursions from the same operators for less than what they are being charged on board.

 

While it may seem like you are getting "free" activities (rock climbing, ice skating, mini golf, etc.) it has been calculated in the price. It is the "perception" of getting something for free that the other lines charge for that RCCL hopes will attract passengers to them.

 

If interest from the US continues to drop, RCCL will look for other markets to fill their ships up or tank. You can have the best product, but if no one or not enough people buy it, you cannot stay in business indefinitely.

 

 

MARAPRINCE

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Any thoughts regarding solar energy for ships? Since some areas in Europe (one of the Scandanvian countries, can't remember which one) was written up in one of the weekly news magazines touting the benefits -- no pollution, less cost, etc., -- ships may want to consider it as a way of cutting operating costs. Some home owners have already installed solar panels and benefitted from the reduced costs.

 

MARAPRINCE

 

I believe that Celebrity's Solistice class ships will have some solar panels. With the current technology solar power is only capable of providing a small fraction of the energy needs of cruise ships though, so it can not replace conventional fuel, but may be able to play a larger role in future ships.

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