Question for FlyerTalker and all the other experts!

[cold in MN]

Hi FlyerTalker,

 

Thought I'd pose this question to you and all the other experts on this board. I've been lurking and reading your posts and you guys seem to have some very sound advice, so here goes.

 

What are usually the chances of a fare going back down? A flight I had been watching from MSP to MSY for 1/31-2/7 (1112/1020 from MSP on 1/31 & 1102/1344 from MSY on 2/7) had gone down to $268, but had to leave suddenly before I could book to pick up sick child from school.

 

Was gone only 20 minutes, but by the time I got back, fare had already gone up to $366!

 

Should I wait and see if it'll come back down? Or should I not take the chance and go ahead and book another flight available right now at the $264 price (5315/5346 from MSP & 1796/2348 from MSY), BUT the times are not as desirable? (My dream flight would actually be

 

We are limited to using AA since we have some vouchers we need to use.

 

Any insight or advice you or any of the other flyer experts could give on this would be soooooo much appreciated. I'm almost as sick as my daughter about missing booking the flight I wanted at the price I wanted:(

 

Thanks SO much in advance for your help.

[Jiminkcmo]

Hello cold:

 

You would be wise to buy when the price is something you are comfortable paying.

 

Then, don't look at the prices again. PERIOD!

 

If the price went up, you'd be happy. If the price went down, you'd be sad.

 

Why play with your own emotions?

 

None of us has all of the information that the airlines use to determine prices, so none of us can tell you if the prices will go up or down.

 

If we could do that and apply it to the stock market, we'd be richer than Bill Gates.

 

Just my $0.02.

 

Jim

[FlyerTalker]

Looking at your first choice in flights, there is only 1 seat showing for sale in the "Q" bucket, which is what corresponds to the $268 fare. The later flights through STL have plenty of availability right now.

 

At this point, I don't see why AA would add inventory for those early morning flights (the earliuer flight to DFW is also zeroed out in Q). It's 3 months to flight time, and I personally don't see them adding Q seats.

 

If the flights through STL still work for you, take them. You have some pluses and minuses. Plus: You get to fly for the least costly available fare. You fly through STL, which has far less of a congestion issue than DFW or ORD. Minus: You will be on an ERD regional jet, which some dislike. You will have a longer connection time at STL (2:25) though that does provide more of an operational cushion. You arrive in MSY an hour later.

 

On the return, same thing....no Q inventory on your preferred flights.

 

Greatam is the AA expert here, and may have some personal experience with AA availability patterns that might sway this decision. But, I would be all over that STL option on the outbound, and taking what you can on the return.

[Ephraim]

Not an expert on AA... take a look at the return flight at 3:45PM. I'm getting prices of $310. Or you can do it the Mobissimo way and constrain your departure times (Kayak lets you do the same thing with either departure or arrival times, though.)

 

Availability is sometimes better VERY early in the morning, when other people's holds die. I've sometimes found a fare at 3AM in the morning that wasn't there at other hours.

[cold in MN]

Thanks for doing some legwork and all the advice. I went ahead and decided to book it. With what's going on in the US, at this point, I figure I better take a sure thing when it's availabe.

 

On the upside, when I went to book, the return flight to MSP I had wanted HAD gone back down, so I was able to get on that flight. Now I don't have to worry so much about rushing off the cruise ship to get to the airport.:p