Carnival May Be Downgraded

[crusinmama06]

Goes to show you how much those people know about anything, Carnival just increased their booking big time because of all of the RCI customers jumping ship. Fred

 

What do you mean the RCCL people are jumping ship? :mad:

 

Oh wait, I guess some of us are...LOL. :D :p

 

Hi, I am one of the defectors. Nice to see ya. :D

[WinnipegCruiser]

Carnival may be sailing full, but they've slashed prices to do so.

 

Yes, slashed prices with a non-refundable deposit. So a big chunk of change to be 'realized' in future quarters, but already in the bank.

[misguidedangel]

RCI will have to be downgraded even more than Carnival!!! Their profit was barely noticed and they have debt in the billions because of Gargantuan and Colossus of the Seas being built...ok, so its the Oasis and Allure, but they should have named them gargantuan and colossus instead because of the ridiculous size of the ship!!

[dan40]

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/cruises/item.aspx?type=blog&ak=65047903.blog

 

Looks like Moody's is getting kinda moody on Carnival.

 

How many companies in the leisure travel and activities industry are getting credit rating upgrades?

 

None, perhaps.

 

Industries that are 100% dependent on discretionary income expenditures are all facing tough times. I fully expect some cruise company to go belly up.

IF Carnival does, the cruise industry is OVER, until a very hot economy returns.

 

Right now, RCL has not found financing for all of its BILLION dollar Oasis, 8 months from completion. And doesn't have a cent to pay for its BILLION dollar sister ship already ordered. And they are now operating in the RED. S&P lowered RCL's credit rating and they were already rated well below Carnival. I think RCL will survive but right now the light at the end of their tunnel might be the headlight of an onrushing train!

 

Dan

[nolaAlive]

Builiding ships NOW is what you want to do to have sufficient capacity for when the recession ends (the depression is already over). It takes years to design and build a ship. If you wait until the recession is over, you will miss the boat both in terms of capacity and the newer builds will cost significantly more.

 

The dollar is relatively strong now, you do not want to wait until it is weaker.

 

As for downgrades, who cares? They can downgrade Carnival all they want - it will still be rated higher than the Royal Chump line.

 

One of the things Carnival announced they were going to do as money and price permitted was to buy back a lot of the outstanding shares of its counterpart across the pond.

[Wennfred]

As casinos have found out over the years, the trick is to get people in the door (or onboard). Very few people have the discipline on a vacation to limit themselves to just the minimum costs. People are cutting back, but Carnival is getting the people who were spending hundreds more on an RCI or NCL cruise and who can splurge somewhat on Carnival and still come out ahead.

 

You got that right, remember that your money becomes monopoly money once you enter a casino :D Like in that commerical where there is a guy in the casino from the midwest and he is talking to his wife on the phone and says, Hon I just dropped 6000.00 thats like 200.00 lol.

 

 

 

Fred

[G'ma]

I guess it all depends upon who you read...............

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYLJ5k6Vbx04&refer=home

 

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/3142521

 

No worries about them....at all. They have what it will takes to weather this storm and any others along the way.

[calgarygary]

For those that think the Moody's rating will not impact Carnival, think again. CCL has billions in new orders over the next few years and even the smallest increase in their interest rate will dramatically impact the bottom line. The real reason I am posting though is to recommend the firing of those so called experts at Moody's. It took until now for them to realize what difficult waters that Carnival and the rest of the cruise industry is sailing into??? What the heck has this expert been doing for the past 6 months? This is an example of why so many financial companies got into such deep trouble - people asleep at the switch. Here is a quote of mine from almost 6 months ago:

Purchasing more stock to reduce the avg. share cost may be throwing good money after bad for the near future. As a long term investment, CCL will likely recover however let's look at the near term (coming few years). We are currently in a recession (it will finally be announced at the end of the quarter) that is already dramatically impacting cruising - just look at all the price reductions and obc's. The lines are doing everything they can to keep the ships full but they are faced with a terrible global economy. Combine that with the fact that CCL has 17 ships on order that will greatly increase supply at a time that demand is cratering and you have a bleak outlook for CCL.

 

I am posting it not to say I was right but to question why an expert would take so long coming to such an obvious conclusion and leave his company among others potentially exposed to risk.

 

ps - I did buy CCL but only after it bottomed and had recovered somewhat.

[dmfriedman]

I guess it all depends upon who you read...............

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYLJ5k6Vbx04&refer=home

 

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/3142521

 

No worries about them....at all. They have what it will takes to weather this storm and any others along the way.

Sorry' date=' but not quite accurate.

 

The articles you cite were based on the 1st quarter earnings announcement on March 24, where they had also stated their preliminary forecast for the second quarter. On March 31, they restated their second quarter forecast which is what led to the downgrade. So it really doesn't depend on [u']who[/u] you read so much as how current the material you're reading is.

[nolaAlive]

Anyone who buys or sells stock based on Internet cruise board advice deserves to lose money.

 

As for "expert" analysts, I long ago lost count of how many didn't downgrade or upgrade a company until it was far too late. Think Citigroup as a recent example.

 

The United States will default as a country, long before Carnival defaults as a corporation. No ifs, ands, or buts