notamermaid

Maxau as forecast has gone over the HMO mark (see post #1032) and is now at 654cm. No further rise of note forecast. Further downstream the situation, as you know, is different. Mainz, Bingen and Kaub are still rising but thankfully will stay under navigational flood mark II. Koblenz is still rising as well, the crucial flood mark II was reached at 3am. The rise has slowed down so that is good. The rise at Andernach gauge has also slowed so the authorities are saying this morning that the level should peak just below the crucial mark II. notamermaid

Just opposite England on the other side of the channel the area is inundated. Pas-de-Calais is seriously affected. The river Aa is seriously flooding and others are very high, too. This is from the French government website for the rivers, here the Northern part, https://www.vigicrues.gouv.fr/niv2-bassin.php?CdEntVigiCru=29: This video is astounding. I have stood in front of the town hall at Arques. A pleasant town known for its glass factory. I do not understand much of the commentary but I do not need to. https://www.francetvinfo.fr/meteo/inondations/inondations-dans-le-pas-de-calais-vu-du-ciel-un-departement-meconnaissable_6282639.html Talking of odd names, Aa looks weird, but it is an old Germanic root and is not that uncommon, especially when you include its variations. As I said, I have been to the area of the Aa river, when you cross it on a bridge the sign says L'Aa. I still find it looks odd after having seen it dozens of times. notamermaid

An interesting glimpse into American poetry and narrated at a lovely fireplace. Thank you. notamermaid

The river at Koblenz is basically on track with the forecast. Current figure is 631cm. The dreaded figure of 650cm appears in the forecast at 2am local time. It is now just after 8pm. Andernach will most likely peak just below its navigational flood mark II but it is close and we cannot exclude a turn for the worse. Same goes for Oberwinter (close to Bonn). notamermaid

This looks like a recent short video of Cesky Krumlov: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/qyEKdlhMzcg notamermaid

Cochem. Water level higher than I had interpreted from the news reports yesterday. River in town, but not completely flooding the old town. They have seen worse over the years. They are prepared, as the reporter says: https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/rheinland-pfalz/koblenz/cochem-hochwasser-mosel-vorbereitungen-100.html notamermaid

By-weir, no never heard of that. Only know weir, not sure what it could be. Got a photo? notamermaid

The rivers are keeping me busy, but I need to keep the reporting short today. Here is what my country looks like, far too colourful, should be green: For that neighbouring country of ours, the Czech Republic, things are also not too good. To the left of Düsseldorf you can see the long line going North, that is the Maas (Meuse), now causing trouble for the Netherlands again. The Netherlands still also has to take on the water from our rivers, via the Rhine. And I have no idea how they cope around Hanover. notamermaid

Thank you for your kind words and thanks. Need to keep the reporting a bit shorter today. Yesterday I hinted at the concerns for Koblenz. That was based on the graph and forecast from the Rhineland-Palatinate authorities. Now even more in the full wave and concerns further confirmed. We will see a lot of flooding and the graph is now above the line for a flood that occurs every two years. The screenshot: This is locally an infrastructure problem, meaning embankments are getting impassable, car parks are closed and bus routes altered. For river traffic you can see the now almost inevitable. The ban from 650cm onwards is inevitable if the river follows the most likely forecast scenario. Inevitably, Andernach not being far away the level there is also on navigational flood mark I and rising fast. A river traffic ban there is not clearly indicated. notamermaid

Good point. Will check that some time. May have got the construction wrong. notamermaid

Works! And great photo, too, for illustrating flooding. notamermaid

Great to read that. Guess what I found online: https://www.fotocommunity.de/photo/amadeus-imperial-ralf-m-b/47948862 and: https://www.fotocommunity.de/photo/kreuzfahrtschiff-beim-hochwasser-ralf-m-b/47944826 notamermaid

Maxau gauge. It has got a page on the authorities' website and looks like this: https://www.hvz.baden-wuerttemberg.de/pegel.html?id=09016 From the current levels page you can switch to the one that includes the forecast. The whole page, whether you are on the one or the other setting, is updated every 15 minutes. So if you want to remember a certain scenario you need to make a screenshot. I will explain the forecast a little and for that have taken two screenshots. Here is the first one from just after midnight: Current levels are recorded as the blue line, the red is the forecast, the orange line is the more tentative forecast, meaning the most likely trend with the thinner outline marking both high and low end of the margin. Judging from this I say that we will likely see the river go up to navigational flood mark I. Next, the screenshot from tonight, less than 21 hours later: You can clearly see the major change in that the second "hump" has almost gone. But the first "hump" is also higher and now reaches to over the HMO mark and there is little error in that as it is already marked by a full red line. I will now say that the river level at Maxau is very likely to reach the official marker for flooding. You can see that a significant change can happen in a relatively short space of time. Now, while I would be happy to bring 2023 to a close the weather is not cooperating and we have a major change in that one river cruise company is not bringing the season to a proper close but continuing winter sailings ((notamermaid shakes her head slightly disapprovingly)), I feel I need to be fair and continue a bit here. That means while we can almost ignore what is happening at Maxau we need to look further downstream and at the situation in the Rhine Gorge. You know, we will not see a river traffic ban around Maxau and all river cruises will run smoothly... Or will they? That is the big question and I of course cannot answer that but smooth sailing is an uncertainty to some extent. Navigational flood mark I means adjusted sailing and extra vigilance. We will see it again at Maxau - see my comments above - and Mainz will reach that threshold tomorrow. Bingen has gone over it and Kaub will follow tomorrow. Koblenz has gone over it and is on official flooding status. The situation there is causing some concern. So I hope for the best for those two new Viking itineraries "Treasures of the Rhine" on the Alruna and the Tialfi starting tomorrow: That's it for tonight. notamermaid

Let us do a first recap of December together with an explanation as to what a forecast at Maxau looks like. In November the river was high and with there not much chance of the level dropping a lot there was the risk of minor problems coming. The weather changed for the worse - for the rivers that is - and the problems were greater than anticipated. But what does this mean? While I have no chance of a full look back at the situation and constantly changing forecast graphs I can go back in this thread. Maxau gauge is the crucial gauge for checking on flooding in the Upper Rhine valley and a marker for that section of river, i.e. when Maxau gauge gets too high river traffic is suspended for safety reasons. Maxau gauge is near Karlsruhe in Germany. Okay, let us go back. I suspected problems would arise when I saw the first forecasts at Maxau showing fast rising levels. But I was even more alerted to this when I saw the situation at Hauenstein and at Basel deteriorate. With the sudden thaw and the rain, smaller rivers were draining faster than we would normally see and Lake Constance was very high. I did not want to go into too much detail at the time - as I will show later the forecast can change quite a bit - but did mention the risk. So here goes. On 8 December I wrote: "Thank you for the info. That is interesting. It looks as if Uniworld is doing a pre-emptive change due to the expected flooding. Smart move. The German authorities are stating this: "Aufgrund des für das Wochenende vorhergesagten Tauwetters mit Regen werden die Wasserstände am Oberrhein ab dem morgigen Samstag stark ansteigen. Am Pegel Maxau wird ein Überschreiten der Meldehöhe von 700 cm am späten Samstag oder frühen Sonntag erwartet." So, as I said, a thaw with rain making the levels rise. Maxau gauge is expected to reach official flooding status of 700cm late on Saturday or early Sunday. To which I may add that it is likely now that there will be a river traffic ban. notamermaid" Note that I wrote "likely", so I will have seen this well indicated within the margin of error but I could not be sure. Later on 8 December I wrote: "The level at Maxau gauge fell but remained high throughout the rest of November and from there we now face another rise. The baseline being so high, the rain and snow melt give us the prospect of another river cruise ban. The newspapers are already reporting on the forecast and weather giving us a high risk of flooding. 750cm is almost certain and 780cm is very likely. This fast rise is expected to start in the early hours of Sunday and bring the river to 750cm and more within 24 hours." So I was a bit more certain and got more precise. But then the situation on the Higher Rhine changed a little. Overall, we still needed to expect flooding but the timeline was altered. Therefore on 10 December I wrote this: "The rises both at Hauenstein and Basel are now forecast for during the night, which means Maxau gauge's higher figures have been pushed well into Sunday. Maxau may reach 700cm by tomorrow night." Then on 11 December I wrote this: "The level at Maxau is now steady at 746cm. Looks like this is the plateau for the time being, with a slight drop to follow. Then, at this point in time, the forecast indicates the 750cm and river cruise ban to very likely occur in 26 to 28 hours." Note that I wrote "very likely" and a quite precise time frame. Then, the brutal news. On 12 December I wrote: "I needed to confirm what I had suspected may happen when I looked late last night: have found a news report that says the river traffic ban has already been issued from Basel to Kembs and then extended to Kehl (that is the German harbour opposite Strasbourg). Now in the last hour or so the gauge at Maxau climbed to 750cm. It is now at 756cm. River traffic is suspended from Iffezheim lock to Germersheim railway bridge as well. I have taken a screenshot for you of the German article: It says that the authorities expect the ban to last the whole week." If you are interested also in the posts in between those quoted ones, please read. I think I have given you the major developments leading up to the river traffic ban here in this summary. Next we will look at Maxau gauge forecast explanations. notamermaid

Short respite for the Main. Its tributaries are rising again, the Tauber is flooding. The upper Main itself is also carrying a lot of water. This is the situation right now, left on the map is the confluence near Mainz: Not all those dots near Worms and Forchheim are contributing to the Main river waters but you get the picture. The problem: this water will get to the Rhine and cause major problems in the Rhine Gorge. notamermaid

Having to take on the water from the Alzette and then the Sure, both in Luxembourg, the Moselle is struggling more than we may have expected. Added to that is the fact that there is work going on at weirs so not enough water is let through the dam system. The authorities have warned that this will make the situation close to the three locks affected worse. Trier gauge is now at 830cm. River traffic is suspended. Cochem old town may likely escape being flooded but the river is very high there already. Here is a video from the Glan river, the Moselle and the Lahn river at Bad Ems: Spot the Viking landing stage partly submerged: https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/rheinland-pfalz/dauerregen-und-hochwasser-in-rlp-102.html The second video just explains the work at the weirs I have mentioned. notamermaid

The situation along the Rhine is staying "interesting". The heavy rain this time is not causing problems around Basel or in the Upper Rhine valley. While the river is rising there as well, we will most likely see little flooding. I will get to Maxau gauge later. Instead of problems up there in Baden-Württemberg, we get a higher volume of water from other tributaries that will cause problems in the parts close to the Middle Rhine valley and in the Middle Rhine valley (Bingen to Bonn). The Neckar is carrying a lot of water but the main drivers are the Main, Lahn, Moselle and Sieg (that one is close to Bonn). The Moselle has to take a lot of water from the rivers in Luxembourg and from the Saar. It is struggling. Marburg on the Lahn is on flooding level 3. The Tauber is feeding the Main a lot and the Upper Main itself is also very high. As a result of all this the forecast for Kaub is this: Tomorrow will see navigational flood mark I being reached. The yellow line marks the level of flooding that statistically happens every two years. notamermaid

Granted. A big city creates a lot of noise and a lot of rubbish. A pain in the neck to clean when it is wet. I have collected a bit of rubbish but not too much has made into our yard or street area. The situation near the Danube is getting worse fast. The Regen is again carrying far more water than normal. notamermaid

More rain and flooding in England and we are following suit. Bavaria's rivers are rising again, the Moselle is carrying a heavy load, Northern Germany cannot even recover, but surprisingly the flooding for the Rhine has been forecast to be less than anticipated three days ago. However the Tauber (in the town name Rothenburg ob der Tauber) is flooding so Wertheim on the Main has a blinking red H for Hochwasser on the map. Not good at all. Where is my January freeze and snow? notamermaid

I was going to say you will miss Rhenish Carnival. The Basler Fasnacht is later than ours, had forgotten. That should be a great experience. Have a great cruise. notamermaid

That is interesting to read! You will be be on the Tialfi in February that means kind of for us here trying out the new Viking winter offer. I report little in winter but if there is anything important or fellow enthusiasts contribute I will be around for comments. Later in the month of January when 2023 is wrapped up I will start a new thread for 2024. notamermaid

It was a short week of ease along the Moselle. After heavy rain, the Saar is carrying a high volume of water and the Moselle itself also rose in France and Luxembourg. That wave is now in Germany and is causing a rapid rise at Trier, more so than in December. The level is now at 738cm. notamermaid

I said to @Pushka in previous post that finding a docking location from Speyer to Cologne is easier than further upstream. That is correct, as they are very frequent there, but the experience of Adam Coulter has made me think. With apparently so many submerged in water and not usable, space along the Rhine must be tight in places. Where do you put all the ships? While commercial shipping just needs a suitable anchor space with a gangplank, a river cruise ship needs a more sophisticated, safe berth for people to get onto land and several landing stages are not suitable for 135m ships. Tricky. @ural guy posted a photo of Boppard. I found a video of the previous flooding wave earlier in December. Here it is. At 1:36 you can see that the landing stage of Viking is flooded and inaccessible: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqY7i31jLQA By the way, the promenade in Boppard is very nice to stroll along, I enjoyed it a couple of years ago in a dryer state shortly before Christmas. notamermaid

With the last ships sailing adorned with Christmas decoration and the lights soon coming down in towns along the rivers, I would like to look back on the season now. It has not been an easy and straightforward November and December. Too much rain, the almost complete absence of snow and the flooding on the Danube, Moselle and Rhine have caused many disruptions and disappointments. Let me tell you, the situation was far from normal and something we could not expect in October that it would happen. So before we get to the good bits, would any of you like to share your experiences. Were you happy with the communication from your river cruise line? How did short notice itinerary changes work? Did you yourself even cancel? Did you go on a route not affected by the flooding? We hear little of France for example during this time of year. Sometimes the unexpected leads to a good experience. Any nice surprises while you were rerouted for example? notamermaid

The Schängel fountain in Koblenz is a fun attraction for sure. That is an excursion which is a bit more unusual. Would be very interested in seeing the line, still have not been. It is a history lesson one cannot have on a Danube cruise. notamermaid