twotravellersLondon

Oh, what a night! Early January in twenty-twenty four Well faced with the prospects of horrendous 20+m/s winds and mountainous 5.1+ seas blocking his route across the North Sea last night the Balmoral Captain... skilfully skirted around the heart of the storm. From just off Bergen he hugged the Norwegian coast taking full advantage of the slackening winds in the lea of the coast and pointed his ship towards the Baltic and into the oncoming gale.... the best position to deal with the storm. When the Balmoral reached just off Flekkfjord, the Captain turned South, crossed the entrance to the Skagerrak despite the 17.5 m/s winds and the 3m seas and made for the West of Denmark. Watching events as the unfolded on Norwegian Official Marine channels, the skill and expertise used to navigate the Balmoral around the worst of the storm... both for the safety of the ship and the comfort of the passengers... was really impressive. It certainly seems to have been an exceptionally bumpy and rocky night and a fair number of folks must have had a bit of a disturbed night but far worse weather and waves were avoided.

It's beginning to look a lot like if the Balmoral is going to finish its current Christmas cruise with a bit of an "Oky Coky"... "in out, in out and shake it all about." On New Year's Eve it popped into Ålesund and cruised out a bit after midnight. This morning it popped into cruise past Hornelen and then cruised back out to sea. It's now off Haugesund and has turned to make its transit over the North Sea to be back in Southampton on 4 January. It's due to cover 99 nm over the next 6 hours at a speed of between 16 and 17 knots. That will take it into the South Utsire sea area and by all accounts (the Norwegian Met Office and the UK and Danish equivalents) into severe storm force weather. The current predictions are for winds up to 24 m/s overnight with waves of over 6.5 m.... Tuesday could well be a bit of a "shake it all about" day. Obvious the Captain and the Company have every confidence in the ship. We've experienced a force 9 and a force 10 on the Balmoral and didn't find it too bad... we just took he Captain's advice about using the handrails, had an early night so that we were surrounded by cosy padding and ate sensibly at meal times... and were lucky enough to enjoy an exhilarating experience. Not many takers for the curry that day! On one show the Comedian just couldn't stand upright... so he lay front down on the stage. looked at the audience and did his entire act from that position... ad libbing as he went... he was hilarious and put us all at our ease.

Toast (without Marmalade) Here's to you all folks You know who we mean folks And to every cheerful post That makes the heart as warm as toast Fill, fill your glasses high Drain, drain your glasses dry To one year say "Goodbye!" To another say "Aye! Aye!" Here's to the fun of a comedy interlude Here's to the pictures of friends sharing food To the carers and the caring To the lovers and the loving ⁠Fill, fill your glasses high Drain, drain your glasses dry To one year say "Goodbye!" To another say "Aye! Aye!" Thanks for that funny cartoon The photos of that great macaroon The wise advice on the Air-fryer Maxi And... the inadvertent predictive taxi ⁠Fill, fill your glasses high Drain, drain your glasses dry To one year say "Goodbye!" To another say "Aye! Aye!" When you hear the bells resound Fireworks burst all around Light up a face with a smile One that goes on for mile after mile Fill, fill your glasses high Drain, drain your glasses dry To one year say "Goodbye!" To another say "Aye! Aye!" And here's to all those you know folks The cheerful girls and the jokey blokes Those that you give so much care And a love that's beyond compare Fill, fill your glasses high Drain, drain your glasses dry To one year say "Goodbye!" To another say "Aye! Aye!" Here's to you and you and you And here's to you too We wish you health, wealth and happiness Even the occasionally bit of outrageous jolliness ⁠ Here's to you all folks! You know who we mean folks!

The Balmoral is currently off the coast of Norway about 60 miles to the West of Rorvik. The ship is due to be cruising by Honelen in 1 Jan and the transiting the North Sea in time to arrive in Southampton on 4 January 2024. The weather between during the transit promises to be a bit bumpy. The advanced forecasts from the Met Office/BBC estimate that there will be severe weather in the North Sea associated with a complex low pressure area between the Southern tip of Norway and Shetland, Orkney and North-East Scotland on the 2 and 3 of January. This will particularly affect the Shipping Forecast areas; Viking, Forties, North and South Utsire and Fisher. (Currently there is a Gale warning for all of these areas) According to the Norwegian meteorological Office, on Tuesday 2 January a Gale with wind speeds between 14 m/s increasing to 19 m/s and wave heights of 4.4 to 7.1 m has been forecast. One weather model has winds speeds of up to 51 knots by midnight on 2 January. But forecasts can change. It will be interesting to see just how FOCLs and the Balmoral's Captain use the time available to navigate the forecast storm for the safety of the ship and the comfort of the passengers. After all... nobody likes a bumpy ride home.

Avril... thank you for sharing. We don't as a rule send sympathy posts but in this case our hearts are with you both. We know that you have the strength, the will and the resilience to overcome the slings and arrows of fortune. Stay strong. Stay strong for Frank. You're comforting calm, your friendly fellowship, your constant companionship and your really special enduring bond... we're sure ... will be such a comfort and blessing to him at this difficult time. We send our very best wishes, our most sincere hopes for the best and we know that we will be only two of many who will have you both in our thoughts and prayers this night, Love to both A&J

We've no doubt that different folk who have reported what they experiences and what they were informed by the Captain was true. We're very experienced sailors in 21 m. yacht, have completed well over 30 ocean cruises over for decades . My father was in the fishing industry, my grandfather was a skipper and a life-boat coxswain and all of my ancestors and rellies over five generations have been seamen and suchlike. The sea is in my DNA! We have every confidence that these folk are honestly reporting what they experienced and heard. The cruise industry is one of the most regulated on earth. The equipment is some of the most regulated on earth. We have every confidence that what was reported by the captain was correct.

The Aurora left Haugesund, Norway' a little time ago and is due to cross the North Sea tonight and tomorrow at be at the Pilot Station in Southampton at 3.30 am on December 29. While the weather at the moment is a strong breeze with winds of about 14 m/s and moderate seas of about 1.5m, the forecast for the next few hours is for a violent storm. Estimated wind speed may reach over 52 knots, average wave height is expected at about 9 m. with an expected max of 12.5 m and sea state 8... that's very high. It looks as if it's going to be a bit of a bumpy to begin with this night. Hope everyone has an early night and stays safe and secure in the comfort of their beds... certainly would be our plan.

Today we're of to the local panto... "Oh yes we are!" and then we ... as always... have planned a very special evening... quiet music... candle light... a meal for two and some good wine... it's our version of "Silent Night"... it's a time to; take stock, count the blessings, remember the laughter and share warm memories of the folk who can't join us around the table. We're both so grateful that we've enjoyed, appreciated everything that we've done and experienced in the year... the Northern Lights last winter... a Baltic cruise in the summer and a trip along the Danube... trips in the UK. Perhaps age brings with it the belief in taking nothing for granted and enhances appreciation, enjoyment and excitement. There were less Christmas cards this year... but we remember the warmth, friendship and humour of those that can't pop in for a drink and a chat this Christmas... and perhaps that makes us appreciate even more the companionship of every one of our near neighbours who came to exchange warm greetings and pressies this year. We learned only yesterday that another old friend was no longer with us... the family have left his personal website online... there he is... happy, cheerful walking his two dogs on the paths that he loves so much and he's still chatting about his love for good food and wine. And we... are so lucky to be able to have known him, we remember his humour, his recommendations on wine, his fancy dress and his wonderful infectious enthusiasm. (In the days when the tv "wine-experts" were encouraging everybody to smell every exotic fruit in the most ordinary wines, he once described a rather iffy red wine as smelling of the "inside of a tram-driver's leather glove.") So our very Best Wishes and thanks to everybody who've allowed us to share this thread and who've amused us, humoured us and informed us over the last year. Thanks for the likes, the laughs and the "thanks." In the words that Charles Dickens used exactly 160 years ago to immortalise Tiny Tim... "God Bless Us Every One!" 🌠

You need to look at the Government's data and predictions to understand the future market. P&O's statisticians do.

For those who weren't with the 5,000+ folk from all over the country in the Albert Hall for the Carol Concert yesterday evening... those of us who were there were encouraged to photo and video some of the performance and pass on the joy to others. IMG_3115.mov

And a significant change in the death rates in the UK and age of the population is exactly what the Government's Office for National Statistics is predicting as a result of the baby-boomer generation working their way through life. Currently the UK birth rate is about 11.267 per 1.000 and falling... (the final figure in 2022 was the lowest since 2002.) The UK death rate is currently 9.100 per 1.000 and rising. It's predicted to peak at 11.101 per 1.000 in 2058. The Government's projection are that during the 10 years between mid-2020 and mid-2030, 6.6 million people will be born but 6.7 million people will die and by 2025 there will be more deaths than births. Natural change is the difference between the number of live births and deaths in the UK. Currently the biggest age group in the UK are 55-59 year olds... the last of the baby-boomers... about 4,187,002 people make up 6.8% of the UK population. The 50-54 year olds are only 6.6%, the 45-49 year olds are even smaller at only 5.9 %... only 4,004,632 pe9ple but that number will be smaller due to mortality by the time that same group are 1o years older. The latest Public Health England forecasts show that life expectancy is likely to remain the same or decline... as it has already done in Scotland. (The off projected population increase in the tabloids is based on increased migration into the UK... that's really not appropriate to discuss here.) This is not good news for those aspects of the cruise industry relying on the more mature clients. It means that the number of potential passengers for Arcadia and Aurora will decline. Add to that the fact that the UK average disposable income is now only about the same as it was in 2007/2008 and the up and coming cruisers who are currently in late 40s and early 50s have often missed out of final salary pensions, high annuity rates while acting as the "bank of Mum & Dad" and now face higher interest rates and... . It means that the smaller number of potential passengers for Arcadia and Aurora may have less money to spend on cruising than the current counterparts. It is possible that there will be sufficient demand in the next few years for these two ships but demographically... there are some strong headwinds as well. You can find out more... https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2020basedinterim#births-deaths-and-migration https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/health-profile-for-england-2018/chapter-1-population-change-and-trends-in-life-expectancy

We think that your analysis is bang to rights and P&O really do have two quite different offers. We think back to the days of Trust House Forte... before it was taken over by Grenada and remember that Rocco and his family recognised that they has some very divergent hotels in the company and decided to capitalise on in by placing these is "different groups." Perhaps, just perhaps, there is a place for these ships to be marketed as something like... "P&O Heritage."

We think it's a bit of a misconception that P&O target a more mature group when in fact the company really does cater for all ages. Certain cruises on certain ships may give the impression that the P&O age group is about 75 but in reality the average age of a P&O cruiser is 42. And in addition... P&O Cruises' new December 2023 "Holiday Like Never Before" campaign, inviting holidaymakers to rethink what they believe they know of a cruise experience indicates very clearly whom their target audience is... they are people like those in the video... scaling mountains, seriously trail-biking and kayaking... these are the people who will buy a cruise, pay top-dollar for exciting adventurous excursions and live life to the full regardless of the additional cost... that's the market that P&O would like. The world has changed... the impact of the pandemic on the psyche, the cost of living, the rise in interest rates, global uncertainty and the reluctance of a great many people to commit themselves in advance to an extended period away from home, their families, their friends, their support groups and their clinicians... just some of the factors. A year ago we booked a very long cruise... we wouldn't do that now. The result of changing attitudes is that the industry estimates are that in the foreseeable future the UK cruise industry will plateaux out at the same levels of revenue as was achieved in 2019... there will be no growth... not even to cover the effects of inflation. The cruise demographics have seen a marked change... pre-covid there was a tendancy to believe that cruising was for the golden oldies with copper bottomed, cast iron inflation-proof pensions to older generous annuities but future estimates show that the 20-30 year olds are more likely to dominate the cruise market. In fact we've seen one study that shows that 10% of 55s and over, who have cruised, will not cruise again. Even way back in 2018 Paul Ludlow commented on the age range of passengers and mentioned how, on an Azura cruise earlier that year, 73 per cent of guests were under 55. Another interesting fact is that the people are cruising for a shorter length of time... average now of only 9-10 days. And many of these people do so as "digital nomads"... there is very little difference between "working from home" and "working from a cruise ship"... I did it seamlessly for five years... although I always made sure that I was available for Board meetings. Aurora and Arcadia are market dependent... if their cruises sell at a price that will allow P&O to break even and make a profit... there is no need to remove them from the fleet. If their market diminishes... it may well be another story. The question are these ship losing passengers to other lines and are they attracting new passengers as those folk mature into a more relaxed lifestyle?

What a powerfully resilient outlook. Our very best wishes.

Just Google "What's on TV."

We're finding it the same on the fringes of SW London... Dorking, Epsom, Sutton and all around seem very quiet this year. It looks as if people are being careful, canny and cautious. As far as online is concerned... we're having no problems with deliveries and a friend who works for one of the really big names says that there is not the same volume as in previous years.

Your post made us wince and shudder just reading it. We've been through a few storms on the Balmoral, don't like the way that she rolls and corkscrews in heavy weather... we've even been thrown out of bed but never have we experience the ship in the state that you've described. It must have been horrendous. We've seen other similar accounts where passengers thought that they were going to die. The Captain's decision to sail with only one propeller shaft working into the worst predicted gale in 70 years, as the gale grew in strength sounds very odd unless he had discussed the situation with HQ in Ipswich and believed that he had their approval. Ever since the Costa Concordia trial the vast majority of Captains have been keen not to be left out of a limb where it's so easy to hang them out to dry. Management in Ipswich surely knew of the mechanical problems, of the weather forecast and must have been aware that the Balmoral had found itself in a very similar situation... with sea water flooding trough windows, the ship damaged and people injured... less than a year earlier. (At that time there was talk of the storm being "unexpected." The Gale tomorrow morning has been forecast for yonks!) Your comment that, "Fred Olsen is playing the incident well down" is interesting... Tradewinds (Fred Olsen is the ultimate owner)... reported at the time "Fred Olsen Cruise Lines, in an update posted on its social media, said that the rough seas caused some damage on deck four of the ship which has affected a small number of cabins and an area of our Neptune Lounge.” “Our Captain is keeping guests on board up to date with any information on our onward plans,” We're amazed that on the review site that they use FOCLs has also published a post by, one person who was on board the Balmoral that the cruise (L2324) was; "Excellent enjoyed it relaxing, lovely," another "passenger" said that it was, "fantastic. Food was perfect. Entertainment was incredible. Staff were phenomenal." another passenger claimed that s/he had a, "Brilliant time," yet another passenger described the Balmoral as "great for dancing." Perhaps some of these folk were so traumatised that hey just couldn't take in just what a terribly dangerous situation that they found themselves in during their "holiday." No company want's bad new to affect sales but there's a strong case for companies to be open, transparent and honest about problems... if for no other reason than the sake of friends and relatives who may be picking up all manner of bits and bobs of speculation. Another small UK cruise line (two ships rather than FOCL's bigger three ships) was caught in the same storm and had similar problems... we believe passengers were given an apology and a 100% refund. FOCLs should do the same... no question, no prevarication, no delay... the company should do the same. But that's simply our opinion.

It's 12˚C here with a light drizzle but the forecast is for it to get a bit colder. Today is a chance to send a few pre-Christmas emails to friends we've met on cruises... (some several times). We just bear in mind that a misty, moisty morning in the bleak midwinter has it's own charms and makes a bright, dry day all the better!

In 2017 SAGA was very badly caught out by the failure of Monarch Air. Not only were SAGA cruisers already abroad unable to get home without alternative arrangements being made, thousands of others had their segment cruises placed in doubt. It cost SAGA's cruise arm millions to sort out new travel arrangements. The failure of Monarch also cost the SAGA's insurance arm a small fortune. SAGA's took a very serious hit. SAGA shares dropped by 25% and over 100 people lost their jobs... it had a huge impact on Folkstone. Like you, we're not sure that SAGA are looking down the fly-cruise option at the moment.

Agree with what you say but our analysis is slightly different. Many cruise-lines find it difficult to fill berths in the first quarter. That's why many have offered "world cruises" in January, February & March. The cost per day is very low. The lines often don't make a profit on the deal but they do cut their losses compared to laying their ship up for three months. Saga has considered long cruises... like the proposed South American one last year. They cancelled because of potential problems in Brazil. Had they continued the impact of the Peru's situation would also have become evident. FOCLs did the same cruise at the same time of the year anti-clockwise... for many passengers it was a disaster... and FOCL's finances took a nose dive... just have a look at the company's published accounts... and consider that the Managing Direct is now no more and will be replaced by a newly appointed CEO. SAGA Cruises are going from strength to strength despite what detractors who've never used the company might post on all manner of sites. SAGA ships break even at about 70%... they currently achieve about 83%. Like you, we imagine that SAGA will continue to offer 30+ nights. That makes home and travel insurance easier for many. It males access to medication and clinical services easier and, since covid, it suits many people who just don't want to be away from family, friends and support groups for too long.

No problem and will also have a covering letter and a customs declaration so that meds can be carried as hand luggage if need be... just in case a flight is necessary at any stage. Our NHS doctors will also arrange, if need be, for additional supplies to be delivered to the ship at ports of call if there was ever a serious problem. 👍👍

The Balmoral is currently in Oslo and is due to be back in Southampton on Thursday 21 December. Currently there is a strong breeze of about 22 knots and moderate 2 m seas on the passage across the southern North Sea. However on Wednesday, the Balmoral is likely to face winds of about 30 knots (a near gale) and estimated wave heights of 4 m... possibly up to 5.5 m... rough to very rough. However forecasts may change and the Balmoral has been in worse weather conditions in the last few months.

There's another chap with a 10.30pm flight and bags of Christmas goodies with children in mind but... he doesn't leave for a week or so. 🎁🎁🎁

You need to go further. On SAGA you can see the show in the theatre on in the Britannia lounge every night... no need to book in advance... you can book on board for the specially restaurants and if you're willing to eat later you can have almost any evening... no need to be up in the middle of the night weeks before the cruise desperately trying to get a slot. The Lounge space on SAGA is freely open to all... it isn't taken up by bookable extras. And... there are no virtual queues. It's really difficult to quantify the value of removing the hassle.

Isn't is wonderful that predictive text has provided such joy to so many people! 🤣😂 Just so there is no confusion... We've had 8 SAGA transfers in the last year... and all have been excellent.