Transatlantic airfare...any suggestion

[kenish]

Bobblsc- Your point makes sense with the added explanation. However, keep in mind a "reasonable" fare level is set by customers either buying the ticket or not. The airlines' yield management software adjusts fares dynamically if fares are not selling at a certain price....in many ways like the stock market, another commodity where the marketplace largely dictates price based on real or perceived value.

 

When an airline (or any other business) is able to cut their "middle line" expenses it does give more wiggle room on pricing. But the only reason to reduce price and margin is to gain market share at the cost of revenue.

[Globaliser]

I think the airlines are gradually comprehending this. I have a one-way XNA to FLL this May on Delta, at a reasonable price. For several years AA has offered low one-way fares ORD to DUB because of Aer Lingus competition with one-ways.

But these two examples illustrate my point. XNA-FLL is a short hop of less than 1,000 miles. The short-haul market is the main field in which there are now more discount one-way fares, often because of competition from low-fare airlines. But mainline short-haul not exactly a profitable area.

 

Ditto for trans-Atlantic to DUB, on which other airlines compete with Aer Lingus. But EI isn't exactly making money hand-over-fist trying to do a low-fare job on medium-haul routes. So I doubt that any of the competition are, either. Some might question the sense of other airlines trying to compete against EI on this basis. Some might also ask the question whether EI will still be around in 2 years' time, and what part the other airlines' tactics might play in that. One would then naturally go on to ask whether these other airlines are actually making a profit on these routes to DUB. Oh, I see you mention AA: Well, there's the likely answer then; no surprise to see the airline industry's most notorious serial killer at work.

[Bobblsc]

Bobblsc- Your point makes sense with the added explanation. However, keep in mind a "reasonable" fare level is set by customers either buying the ticket or not. The airlines' yield management software adjusts fares dynamically if fares are not selling at a certain price....in many ways like the stock market, another commodity where the marketplace largely dictates price based on real or perceived value.

 

When an airline (or any other business) is able to cut their "middle line" expenses it does give more wiggle room on pricing. But the only reason to reduce price and margin is to gain market share at the cost of revenue.

 

I am aware that the airlines use mathematical models to help in rapidly adjusting flights and prices. But I do not believe any of us has knowledge of specific details of designs of those models. They may, or may not, yield optimum results toward profitability for all situations. I see what you are saying regarding the stock market, but remember that empty airline seat inventories are of no value after the plane leaves the gate.

 

Fares are now determined by competition. Some competitors are offering one-way fares.

 

My argument has all along been that I believe airlines could sell more seats, and thus increase profits, or reduce losses, by pricing one-ways at a bit more than half round trips. I do not believe they would benefit really greatly, but some.

 

I do not agree with your comment "But the only reason to reduce price and margin is to gain market share at the cost of revenue." if you are referring to one-way fares. My point is that if they sell an otherwise empty seat, they will gain revenue. And I realize that there has to be an empty seat not otherwise filled with a round trip which could have been sold. However, how many flights have zero empty seats now? If their models are any good, they surely should take the probabilities of this into account.

 

To address some of Globaliser's comments: Short haul has been profitable for Southwest in the U. S. They remained profitable until very recently. And yes, I am aware they do not use a hubs for flights. I think they finally hit the red last year, but the so-called majors have not made profits for several years now. I have not looked at Aer Lingus financial statement, but has any airline showed a profit recently?

 

I have no interest in AA, but I do notice that it was the only U. S. major to avoid bankruptcy. Perhaps you can explain your "notorious serial killer" comment. Is this because my $465 round trip LHR-JFK is not exactly a great profit maker either?

 

It is a very difficult time for the airlines. No one is his right mind wants any more to be nationalized. They should have the opportunity to become profitable once more. They need to do so to survive. I have only voiced my opinion as to what might help them a bit. I believe they need to get out of an attitude and business model left over from past times.

 

Bob :cool:

[jetwet1]

Just a couple of point I need to make.

 

NZ is reconfiguring their 773's, the economy cabin will be going 10 across from Nov '10, it will be hit and miss for a bit as the aircraft go in to be worked on, but it is something worth thinking about.

 

Southwest as an airline have not been profitable for a while, they have however been very profitable as a fuel trader. With that said, I should point out that I love Southwest and they are my favorite airline to fly, at least until VX adds some more route out off Vegas.

 

Airlines that have made a profit lately, off the top of my head.

 

Air Tran

Easy Jet

Ryan Air

LH

Spirit

 

There are more, but hey it's 2am here :D

[Globaliser]

My argument has all along been that I believe airlines could sell more seats, and thus increase profits, or reduce losses, by pricing one-ways at a bit more than half round trips.

As I have tried to demonstrate, selling more seats does not necessarily increase profits (or reduce losses)). It may seem counter-intuitive, but you only have to look at my worked example to see why. Selling more seats may just you get more bottoms on seats, and you may actually reduce the profits (or increase the losses) you make. Sometimes it really is more profitable deliberately to pursue a strategy that you know is likely to leave you flying some empty seats.

I have no interest in AA, but I do notice that it was the only U. S. major to avoid bankruptcy. Perhaps you can explain your "notorious serial killer" comment. Is this because my $465 round trip LHR-JFK is not exactly a great profit maker either?

AA is notorious for predatory pricing directly aimed at startup airlines. Last victim: EOS.

I have not looked at Aer Lingus financial statement, but has any airline showed a profit recently?

Airlines that have made a profit lately, off the top of my head.

 

Air Tran

Easy Jet

Ryan Air

LH

Spirit

Add at least the following: Cathay Pacific and Qantas - both of them airlines on which you will struggle to find discount one-way tickets on long-haul routes.

[Bobblsc]

Globaliser, I just looked at your pricing example once more. My first university degree was in engineering, so even after many years, I follow your arithmetic. :D Yes, $2000 is greater than $1600 is greater than $1200. Neither of us can score any "points" with made up examples, e.g., selling all six at $350 each yields $2100.

 

Obviously I do not know any specifics, and not much on generalities, of the mathematical designs of airline models used to price seats. I am confident all major airlines have large volumes of data from the past to load into those models. I would also think they use probabilities and resulting expected values at least somewhere in those models. And then the final call on a specific pricing may involve some human judgment in addition to the preceding.

 

But all this is going on too long for me. I estimate the probability that you and I could eventually agree on the basic question is about 0.005.

 

I do thank you for alerting me about a couple of things. I believe I am in good shape.

 

We should meet back here in a couple of years after we see if there are any changes in one-way fare offerings. :D

 

I did not even start to write this much here. Now I really have to get after my income tax returns. :rolleyes:

 

Bob :cool:

[scottbee]

Globaliser, I just looked at your pricing example once more. My first university degree was in engineering, so even after many years, I follow your arithmetic. :D Yes, $2000 is greater than $1600 is greater than $1200. Neither of us can score any "points" with made up examples, e.g., selling all six at $350 each yields $2100.

 

Obviously I do not know any specifics, and not much on generalities, of the mathematical designs of airline models used to price seats. I am confident all major airlines have large volumes of data from the past to load into those models. I would also think they use probabilities and resulting expected values at least somewhere in those models. And then the final call on a specific pricing may involve some human judgment in addition to the preceding.

 

But all this is going on too long for me. I estimate the probability that you and I could eventually agree on the basic question is about 0.005.

 

I do thank you for alerting me about a couple of things. I believe I am in good shape.

 

We should meet back here in a couple of years after we see if there are any changes in one-way fare offerings. :D

 

I did not even start to write this much here. Now I really have to get after my income tax returns. :rolleyes:

 

Bob :cool:

 

WE can quote numbers till the cows come home. Most airlines CASMs (Cost per available seat mile) are between 12-17cents. So for a return trip LAX-LHR-LAX, we're looking at about 11,000 miles, or about $1320-$1870 in cost to fly a seat back and forth.

[kenish]

Now I really have to get after my income tax returns. :rolleyes:

 

....and if you think airfares defy common sense......

[Aunty Pat]

Since you don’t have to pay for the plane ticket from NCL until final payment, include it in the original booking. Thee 330 days before your return flight price the plane ticket go to a site like Orbitz and selecting a multi-city itinerary you’ll be able to pull up the least expensive flights that are priced adding up half of the round trip fares for each city pair (half of the round trip LAX/MIA + half the round trip BCN/LAX). I just did this for flight in October and using United and Air Berlin the total fare was $704 including all airport taxes & fees.

Aunty Pat

 

Barefoot Windjammer - Phantom ‘81

K&D German Rhine Line ‘84

NCL - Norway ’85, Pride of America ’05, Southward ’87, Star ’97 & ‘05, Starward ’92, Sun ’02 & Windward ’93

RCCL - Song of America ‘89

American Hawaiian - Independence ‘98

HAL - Volendam ’99, Noordam ’06, Oosterdam ’07 & ‘09, Statendam ’02 & ‘08, Prinsendam ’03 & ’06, Westerdam ‘09 & Zuiderdam ’04, ’06 & ’07

Carnival - Spirit ‘05

Celebrity – Summit ‘05

Cruise West - Yorktown Clipper ‘06

Princess - Golden Princess ‘07

A & K - East Queen ‘07

Cunard - QM2 ’08

Crystal – Serenity ‘09

[Globaliser]

Neither of us can score any "points" with made up examples, e.g., selling all six at $350 each yields $2100.

No, it doesn't. This is because you will spill at least the two lowest fare customers, as they can't afford to pay $350. So you will only get $1,400. Better to price all six seats at $400 and yield $1,600; better still to price all six seats at $1,000 and yield $2,000 even though it means that four seats will fly empty.

 

Made-up examples simply illustrate, in the most simplistic way, the models and methods that the airlines use. In general terms, they are not secrets. You don't have to spend very long reading the generalist trade press to see this being discussed in sufficient detail to understand it. While the numbers are hypothetical, the situations that they illustrate are very real everyday situations.

[Bobblsc]

No, it doesn't. This is because you will spill at least the two lowest fare customers, as they can't afford to pay $350. So you will only get $1,400. Better to price all six seats at $400 and yield $1,600; better still to price all six seats at $1,000 and yield $2,000 even though it means that four seats will fly empty.

 

Your two assumed, imaginary, travelers could not afford $350 for a one-way ticket, but I just located two assumed, imaginary, travelers who can and did buy at $400 each. So now all six seats can be priced and sold at $400 each for revenue of $2400. :rolleyes:

 

Some airlines might be using the wrong models. No industry operates under constant, static, conditions for long times.

 

But no matter, Goodbye.

 

Bob :cool:

[SlmGT]

I may be:

Late

Wrong on departures

Flat out wrong

 

But... I gather you wish to go from LAX --> MIA for 5/7 sailing on Epic

Then fly from Barcelona when sailing ends on 5/19 back to LAX. If so...

 

LAX-->MIA: Airtran has 1-stop to MIA from LAX for $143 (incl taxes)

BCN-->LAX: Air Berlin has 1-stop in Duesseldorf :) for $626

 

Adds up (not including taxes/fees for cruise) to just over $1500

 

Sorry I could not read the thread in full - lots of "friendly discussion" :D

[FLACRUISER99]

NEVER, EVER purchase cruiseline airfare.

This and any other statement that uses the word NEVER shows a extreme lack knowledge about this topic. I agree that Usually you are better not purchasing cruise line airfare but not always. My best example is when the first leg of RCL's Mariner of the Seas (Pt. Canaveral to RIO) repo cruise was not sold out and they had a Miami Air charter flight Back to MCO. Booking a Balcony with Cruise Air was actually $100 CHEAPER:eek: then "Cruise Only"

[zebra36]

NEVER, EVER purchase cruiseline airfare.

 

Never say never. Frequently it isn't the best way to go but until all options are looked into do not rule out cruiseline air.

[greatam]

Never say never. Frequently it isn't the best way to go but until all options are looked into do not rule out cruiseline air.

 

PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE go ask the Star Princess, March 2 passengers how their cruise air went. Those cruise air tickets could have been FREE and they still would have been in the same position-non endorsable, non reroutable tickets. Most missed the cruise and quite a few are out ALL their money (no travel insurance and no way to get to the cruise)

 

Those with self booked, published fare tickets were given the opportunity to use them on LAN, COPA and Avianca if seats were available. Those airlines flew into Mendoza and pax were put on a bus for an absolutely gorgeous ride to Santiago. Others were afforded the opportunity to fly the originating airline into Buenos Aires and take a 17-20 hour bus ride through country most will probably NEVER have the chance to see on VERY luxurious buses (sleeper seats better than a LOT of airlines business class seats).

 

The discussion in this forum is ALWAYS about the lowest price. Whether the Star Princess passengers got the lowest price on their tickets or not, we have no idea. But they got NO VALUE from their tickets. There is MUCH MORE to an airline ticket than price!!!

[kenish]

"Never" is relative to individual preferences and situation. If saving money is the one and only goal then cruise air is sometimes a good deal. However if a reasonable itenerary, ability to upgrade or get mileage credit, and assistance if travel is disrupted are part of the value proposition, then it may not be a good choice.

Either way, the sticky on this board and a recent article on Cruise Critic home page cuts through the false impressions provided by the cruise lines and factually lists the benefits and risks. Hats off to CC for doing the article, since it does bite the hand that feeds them.

[Shak]

I am on a TA next year and cruise air is $800 and right now regular air is over $1400 and that is only for the TA part. To me there is no perks of upgrading or miles worth over $700. Now if I find air that is more reasonable I will change but for now I am keeping cruise air.

Does anyone have any facts on percentages of people that have cruise air or consolidators tickets and have problems with their air so we can do some risk assessment?

I was on a Hawaii cruise a few years ago and the ships arrival was delayed because we had to turn around in the middle of the Pacific and head back to Hawaii due to a medical emergency. While those of us scrambled to make air arrangements in the middle of the ocean, not and easy feat by the way, those with cruise air only had to wait until the cruise line made arrangements for them. Our insurance paid for the $1000 we had to pay for our return air but some insurance did not. The insurance companies that did not pay claim stated their policy would cover delays caused by you or spouse but not by someone else and many were from insures you would recognize.

I also get insurace for all my cruises.

Shak

[happy cruzer]

Shak, I've been in your shoes. I did the air dev to fly in very early and to preview the flights and airlines choosen. That will mitigate some of the risk. Not perfect but it helps.

Good luck.

[kenish]

shak- Again, read the recent threads (including the ones who missed their cruise during the bad East Coast weather) as well as the CC article. Risk assessment is impossible since you say nothing about when or where you're traveling.

Either you're either going to get to the ship on time (albeit maybe stressed since cruise air is notorious for getting you to the ship in the nick of time). Or you will miss the ship which case you are on your own catching up to your cruise and have to try to recover costs later. (BTW you must make a documented effort to catch the cruise, if you throw in the towel as soon as you miss the ship most TI will not pay out).

Probability of getting to the ship drama-free is pretty good of course....custom air improves those odds.

Also don't confuse situations where the ship was late and flights were missed (where the cruise lines seem to be pretty helpful) with situations where the flight was late and the cruise was missed (where horror stories are common).

[zebra36]

[quote name='greatam']PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE go ask the Star Princess, March 2 passengers how their cruise air went. Those cruise air tickets could have been FREE and they still would have been in the same position-non endorsable, non reroutable tickets. Most missed the cruise and quite a few are out ALL their money (no travel insurance and no way to get to the cruise)

Those with self booked, published fare tickets were given the opportunity to use them on LAN, COPA and Avianca if seats were available. Those airlines flew into Mendoza and pax were put on a bus for an absolutely gorgeous ride to Santiago. Others were afforded the opportunity to fly the originating airline into Buenos Aires and take a 17-20 hour bus ride through country most will probably NEVER have the chance to see on VERY luxurious buses (sleeper seats better than a LOT of airlines business class seats).

The discussion in this forum is ALWAYS about the lowest price. Whether the Star Princess passengers got the lowest price on their tickets or not, we have no idea. But they got NO VALUE from their tickets. There is MUCH MORE to an airline ticket than price!!![/QUOTE]


No doubt there may be an equally distrubing story for those that booked their own air. I was simplly replying that cruise air should not be ruled out out of hand until all options are looked at. In many instances air deviation may be had through the cruise line in order to acquire better scheduling.

[greatam]

[quote name='zebra36']No doubt there may be an equally distrubing story for those that booked their own air. I was simplly replying that cruise air should not be ruled out out of hand until all options are looked at. In many instances air deviation may be had through the cruise line in order to acquire better scheduling.[/QUOTE]

The "disturbing story" has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with scheduling or what airline is used. It has to do with CLASS of ticket. Air deviation/cruise air/custom air/Choice Air are generally booked in bulk fare/consolidator class. Once in a great while you will get a "published" fare ticket BUT you will pay extra for it (and I don't mean the deviation fee).

At least Celebrity is honest about the class of tickets they sell. This from the Celebrity website:

"Airline tickets we issue are highly restrictive and you may find that your ticket cannot be exchanged, reissued or revalidated for another carrier or routing."

What this meant to the Star Princess (and many, many other passengers who have missed cruises with cruise air): They could NOT use their cruise air/air deviation tickets to board another airline OR even reroute their tickets for free to fly to Buenos Aires and take the bus to Santiago (if they chose to take the bus). They also could not fly to another port for free BECAUSE the airlines the cruise lines generally use for USA departing passengers DO NOT fly to the other ports. If they wanted to embark at a port, they had to purchase a ticket to get to the port from a main SA gateway. Some were reporting prices of $1500 per passenger.

As previously posted, those with self booked, PUBLISHED fare tickets were afforded the opportunity to reroute their trip. Some took the bus from Mendoza or Buenos Aires. Some boarded at other ports.

This all has to do with fare class, NOT scheduling.

[FLACRUISER99]

[quote name='greatam']PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE go ask the Star Princess, March 2 passengers how their cruise air went. Those cruise air tickets could have been FREE and they still would have been in the same position-non endorsable, non reroutable tickets. Most missed the cruise and quite a few are out ALL their money (no travel insurance and no way to get to the cruise)

Those with self booked, published fare tickets were given the opportunity to use them on LAN, COPA and Avianca if seats were available. Those airlines flew into Mendoza and pax were put on a bus for an absolutely gorgeous ride to Santiago. Others were afforded the opportunity to fly the originating airline into Buenos Aires and take a 17-20 hour bus ride through country most will probably NEVER have the chance to see on VERY luxurious buses (sleeper seats better than a LOT of airlines business class seats).

The discussion in this forum is ALWAYS about the lowest price. Whether the Star Princess passengers got the lowest price on their tickets or not, we have no idea. But they got NO VALUE from their tickets. There is MUCH MORE to an airline ticket than price!!![/quote]I read a post that claimed Princess was very helpful in re-booking them for a Flight back From Ushuaia. Also in 2007 the Grand Princess was very late arriving in Rome and Princess re-booked all the folks with cruise air and they all got back, while it took 3 or 4 days to get back.

[greatam]

[quote name='jtutak']I read a post that claimed Princess was very helpful in re-booking them for a Flight back From Ushuaia.[/QUOTE]

Was this one of the Princess passengers who STAYED on the ship when it got to Valparaiso? HOW much did it cost them??? What airline were they flying??? If they wanted to get off the ship in Ushuaia instead of staying on until BA or Rio and were USA passengers, I bet they paid a fairly large amount to get from Ushuaia to a SA gateway. A normal one way ticket with advance purchase is about $250pp from Ushuaia to Buenos Aires. A last minute walk up ticket is about $500pp. This was the same situation as people wanting to BOARD the cruise in Ushuaia with cruise air tickets. Yes, that option was available-it wasn't free or particularly cheap.


[quote name='jtutak']Also in 2007 the Grand Princess was very late arriving in Rome and Princess re-booked all the folks with cruise air and they all got back, while it took 3 or 4 days to get back.[/QUOTE]

The SHIP was late. Had nothing to do with the airlines (NOT the same as the Star Princess which WAS an airline related responsibility). Princess was RESPONSIBLE to get the people on cruise air packages home. THEIR ship was late. BIG difference is where the liability lie and how much help was offered.

[Shak]

[quote name='kenish']shak- Again, read the recent threads (including the ones who missed their cruise during the bad East Coast weather) as well as the CC article. Risk assessment is impossible since you say nothing about when or where you're traveling.

Either you're either going to get to the ship on time (albeit maybe stressed since cruise air is notorious for getting you to the ship in the nick of time). Or you will miss the ship which case you are on your own catching up to your cruise and have to try to recover costs later. (BTW you must make a documented effort to catch the cruise, if you throw in the towel as soon as you miss the ship most TI will not pay out).

Probability of getting to the ship drama-free is pretty good of course....custom air improves those odds.

Also don't confuse situations where the ship was late and flights were missed (where the cruise lines seem to be pretty helpful) with situations where the flight was late and the cruise was missed (where horror stories are common).[/quote]

[SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri]Kenish everything we do has risks. It is when we understand the risks we can better deal with them. Trip insurance doesn't seem to think cruise air is an unreasonable risk since they don't charge extra or deny coverage if you have cruise air. Risky things like scuba diving have limitations on trip insurance.[/FONT][/SIZE]

[SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri]I am not going to argue that cruise air is better than a regular ticket but there should be a point when the price makes the risk of cruise air or the use of consolidators more tolerable. What price difference in airfares would you consider using cruise air?[/FONT][/SIZE]

[SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri]The statement you make like "cruise air is notorious for getting you to the ship in the nick of time" is what I am trying to find out. I have been cruising for over 15 years and have had cruise air 3 times and I never experienced the nick of time experience. Lucky maybe but do you have any facts to back up that type of statement. It is estimated that out of US ports alone 10 million will cruise this year. I am sure out of that many there are many that choose cruise air and out of that number how many experience difficulties in getting to the cruise ship on time is what I would like to know. Do you have any information you can share?[/FONT][/SIZE]

[SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri]My TA is in the fall.[/FONT][/SIZE]

[SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri]It is not that uncommon for cruise ships to arrive late and sometime have to land at a different port due to weather. My point is that there are times and circumstances that having cruise air is not a bad thing. [/FONT][/SIZE]

[SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri]Shak[/FONT][/SIZE]

[kenish]

It seems like we are in agreement, the difference is I'd be interested in mitigating the risk while you're willing to assume it as long as the potential loss is insured. Although it's true the risk is low enough that TI companies cover cruise air, the counterpoint is the risk is high enough for CC to publish their article. Do you think they would put out caveats about their advertisers' product if the problem were miniscule? By the way read the TI policy before purchasing because a few do not cover consolidator or group travel. The CC article cites a recent thread on this board that's a good read....a tighly scheduled, high-risk cruise air itenerary.

Of course only you can decide the risk/cost tradeoff. I would look at how much of the cruise you will miss if you miss the ship. If the next port is the next day and reachable by train or air that's a lot less risky than a TA cruise (miss the ship = miss the cruise).

Sounds like TA flights in the fall are not too risky; of course you won't know the routing or flight times. For example if you're ticketed into JFK (big delays due to runway construction) with 2 hours to connect to a TA flight out of EWR then the risk goes up considerably.