2 Storms forming 1 Gulf & 1 Caribbean

[NYcruisers1]

Hey Folks .. just checking weather ... just to let you all know that it looks 2 storms are in the works ..1 in the Gulf & 1 in the Caribbean.. just have to wait & see how it plays out.. i have been tracking the weather since last month ... here is the info on the Caribbean storm & i will post the weather link so you all can track it yourself.. let all hope for the best that this blows out..

 

Here is the link to the weather i use.. http://radar.weather.gov/

Just look on the left under Forecasts & click Hurricanes

2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Eng23]

Hey Folks .. just checking weather ... just to let you all know that it looks 2 storms are in the works ..1 in the Gulf & 1 in the Caribbean.. just have to wait & see how it plays out.. i have been tracking the weather since last month ... here is the info on the Caribbean storm & i will post the weather link so you all can track it yourself.. let all hope for the best that this blows out..

 

Here is the link to the weather i use.. http://radar.weather.gov/

Just look on the left under Forecasts & click Hurricanes

2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Same as the forecast from the National Hurricane Center. The system coming off the coast of Africa in the Eastern Atlantic is very large and has a high percentage of forming into a tropical system. The NHC projects that if that system develops it is at least 5-7 days from reaching the Windward Islands. Just gotta wait and see....

[ItsAllAboutTheSass]

It's that time of year

[Eng23]

It's that time of year

Yup! Heading into the peak time of the season. I have to admit it has been fairly quiet so far this season....

[IPlayWithString]

Ack. We're due to sail out of Galveston on Saturday afternoon. Hope this doesn't cause any problems for us! :-O

[Eng23]

Ack. We're due to sail out of Galveston on Saturday afternoon. Hope this doesn't cause any problems for us! :-O

You might get a little wet.....

[CRU1Z1N]

We're sailing out of San Juan on Sunday. Flying in to Puerto Rico Saturday from Dayton Ohio via Orlando. Should I be worried??

 

 

Sent using the Cruise Critic forums app

[IPlayWithString]

You might get a little wet.....

 

Noooo......:eek::(

[rick&james]

Also on Valor Looking Forward to the Adventure

[Eeyoregon]

Well someone has to say it: TRIP INSURANCE :D !!

[bryanool]

Speaking as someone that has been through many hurricanes (lived in Fort Lauderdale for 4 years). You have nothing to worry about you are safer on a ship that can move away from the storm than on land in the path.

[christmas]

Sailing from New Orleans on Sunday VERY WORRIED!!!:mad:

[Acordant]

Speaking as someone that has been through many hurricanes (lived in Fort Lauderdale for 4 years). You have nothing to worry about you are safer on a ship that can move away from the storm than on land in the path.

Well said. The weather forecast is perfectly normal for this time of year. It is the tropics and they get a little "exciting" during August and September. But these little events are not headed directly for your ship. The good news is that the ship will go out of its way to avoid them **IF** they come anywhere near you. That's a big if.

I've been on about 25 cruises and had only one bad day at sea. I'm sure your cruise will be just fine.

[PunkyH]

Sailing from New Orleans on Sunday VERY WORRIED!!!:mad:

We are with you this Sunday on the Conquest!! I am worried, too....

[Jimmy Geegitz]

Yea just checked one of those storms looks likes its gonna be a doozy!

[Jimmy Geegitz]

Glad I'm not going out this weekend. Good luck to those who are. May affect your ports.

[ontheweb]

Well said. The weather forecast is perfectly normal for this time of year. It is the tropics and they get a little "exciting" during August and September. But these little events are not headed directly for your ship. The good news is that the ship will go out of its way to avoid them **IF** they come anywhere near you. That's a big if.

I've been on about 25 cruises and had only one bad day at sea. I'm sure your cruise will be just fine.

 

We're sailing of Fort Lauderdale this Sunday, and rooting for NO bad weather.

 

The only other time we sailed from that port, we had Hurricane Andrew. We made all our ports, and then had 2 extra days at sea because the ship (renamed by one of the assistant cruise directors as the "Entrapment of the Seas") could not sail into Fort Lauderdale.

 

Those extra days were fine, except for disembarkation with too many ships coming in the same day and overtaxing the resources of immigration. And the airport was hell.

[MrPete]

Everyone cruising should just keep their ears on TWC, as well as close contact with Carnival. They get through this every year, sometimes by altering boarding days, itineraries, or worse case, points of embarkation. Hurricanes move slower than ships can,so just go with an open mind of ports of call, and you'll have some fun, and maybe a bit of a ride.

 

It's rare a cruise is cancelled, although two were last year during Sandy.

[kuddles14]

Well this is a first for us. Heading out Sunday on the Sensation for Freeport and Nassau. Positive thoughts good weather! Calm seas.

[rick&james]

Yea just checked one of those storms looks likes its gonna be a doozy!

 

Which one ?

[rick&james]

[IPlayWithString]

I"m getting more and more nervous now..this isn't going to affect the Mexican ports, is it?

 

I'm a landlubber..always lived inland and the idea of having to deal with a storm on the ocean is freaking me out.

[crewsweeper]

For those sailing out on Sunday, either NOLA or Galveston, you'll probably get some rain but the 92L should be well over land if it indeed heads toward the Lousiana coast, or if it goes to the west. wet windy ride home for those on board now.

 

As for TS Erin, It's a small strom and most likely to turn west-northwest by mid week next week.

 

Latest techincal stuff from WeatherUnderground:

 

Forecast for 92L

92L will trek across the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday evening and arrive in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, when it will have the opportunity to strengthen. The 06Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, but 92L may be far enough north that this influence will be negligible. Given all these factors, 92L should be able to become at least a tropical depression by Saturday, A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Saturday evening over the Central Gulf of Mexico, potentially increasing wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots, stalling any further intensification. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, as the 00Z Thursday run of the European model is suggesting. This would bring a plenty of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. However, the other models show a more westerly track for 92L, with landfalls possible in Texas or Mexico south of the Texas border, and there is high uncertainty where 92L may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Saturday

 

 

Tropical Storm Erin

The season's fifth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Erin is over warm waters of 27°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Friday. Erin is a small storm, as seen on satellite loops. The 12Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath Erin will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as the storm encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. Erin's west-northwest motion will cut the storm off on Sunday from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The storm should weaken beginning on Sunday, which would result in Erin turning more to the west as the east-to-west blowing surface trade winds begin to dominate the steering of the shallower storm. We may see a situation like occurred for Tropical Storm Dorian in late July--intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm, followed by a slow decay and dissipation. The latest run of the GFS model calls for Erin to dissipate well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

[rick&james]

Erin looking as if she will stay away from me and my Ship

[Eng23]

Erin is now downgraded to a depression and looks to stay away from the islands.