When the new ships arrive, will they retire the Classics?

[Ex techie]

Ups that should be 30-40 years.

 

The last time I looked at the expected life cycle fit the new cutters it was still 50 years.

I expect a longer life out of my life car then what my parents for at my age. Engine use to last 100-150 k miles before they needed to be rebuilt. Auto trans, 50k.

 

I am at 248k on my 2000 Taurus and expecting it to last until 300k. Most old cars that you see have been rebuilt from rust buckets or were barn finds. My dad was lucky to get 75k out of his pinto before the engine and trans was rebuilt.

 

The old cutters are not kept afloat due to quality steel, or the at the time good design. Ships are kept afloat thru inspections, maintenance and welding.

 

The recent ships have massively benefited thru better metallurgy and computer modeling. I think the average cruise ship life span is 30 years now. Usually they suffer damage there makes them to expensive to repair. (Major hull damage, boiler explosion, fire, ect.) When compared to the salvage profit. Those that make it that long are passed down to sister cruise lines.

 

I expect DCL to operate them until the SOLAS (Safety of Life at Sea) regulation make it unprofitable to rehabs and operate the ship.

 

The classics would be doing more unique cruises where the ports could not be enlarged to fit the new mega ships. While the new ships would be doing the more common Caribbean runs.

 

 

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Respectfully, I did say ask your CG buddies what their opinion was on life expectancy. Not what you last read.

I'm sure the engineering crew would disagree with what HQ and the ship builders estimate having to deal with the maintenance and issues that all ships have after being given the fantastic fanfare when launched!

 

I agree that better design can help improve longevity, but design as in features also plays a large part in todays cruise ships.

248k from a Taurus! That IS good going!

But I would expect she isn't in a great shape 16 years on, and would anyone chose that car over a 2016 or shall we say 2021 model car to get a ride from?

You can maintain your motor impeccably, you can have the seats recovered, you can install a Blu-Ray player, but it is still a 2000 Taurus.

 

As for operating them until SOLAS reg's cannot be met, I would expect DCL will find the upkeep and maintenance costing financially more than the repayments on new ships to be the deciding factor for them.

It isn't like SOLAS regs for older ships are made to be compliant with new ship builds and grandfather rites to omissions.

 

ex techie

[Ex techie]

You could also look at it this way.

 

If you ordered a Limo for transport to the port, would you be happy if a well cared for but 23 year old refurbished car picked you up?

It might have a new motor, new trans, new paint job, newly upholstered seats, but some rust here and there on the body, and you dont see underneath?

 

Or would you prefer a this years or 11 year old car equally well kept and maintained.

 

If it were a 40 year or older classic and vintage car that was well kept and maintained, possibly!

 

Would you still expect to pay a similar but slightly lower price for a 23 year old car as the 11 or 1 year old car?

 

ex techie

[WaveSplasher]

I think there is a market for Disney in Asia, because its one of the unique kind of experiences which is different than being in a park. I for one will be paying to get onboard a DCL ship if it arrives in Asia. The atmosphere, experience. on board is just different from all the rest of the cruise lines.

 

Maybe it could alternate between Australia and Asia, and who knows one of their new ships could be going to Asia too. If there is a strong market in Asia, and cruise lines are building new ships for Asia, there is no reason why Disney wouldn't want to jump on the bandwagon as well.

[ArthurUSCG]

Ex tech,

I think you are forgetting the memories pictures / family pilgrimage vacation that Disney is the leader in cultivating.

 

When I was younger my parents took the family to Fort Wilderness Campground for multiple family vacations. Guess what I have been doing with my family? Have you looked at the site prices? Not much as changed at the fort since the 80s, yet I will pay $100 a night for a partial hook-up site. The full hook-up sites go for a whole lot more. The Polynesian and Contemporary can go for $300+ a night. Not much has changed for Disney resorts, yes they expand and add on but the rooms and buildings are the same as opening day in Oct 1971.

 

How many families and extended families will want to take a cruise on the Wonder and Magic just to take a picture of their grandchildren with the Ariel and Mickey statues. Or to take a cruise 18 years later on the same ship that the "little souvenir" came from.

 

I suspect DCL will use the classics for the more unique cruises where the focus is not on having the latest, greatest, or biggest.

So we will not see them doing the standard Caribbean or Bahamas cruises, but Alaska, Baltic Sea, ect.

 

Disney is not playing the same game as the other cruise lines. Look at the new ships from the other lines and compare it to what we know about the 2 new ships. The DCL ships are going to be about the same size as the Dream/Fantasy. So they are not going to be competing on the latest fad amenities but on the Disney magic.

 

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[Loonbeam]

As far as Asia goes, one thing to remember. Conservative estimates have the potential pool of new cruisers between China and Japan to be 1 BILLION passengers in the next 10 years. 5 percent of just the new cruiser market would keep a ship the size of the Wonder completely full for 10 years without one repeat or out of market cruiser....

[Ex techie]

Arthur,

 

I completely respect your opinions and views.

 

I however am not forgetting my training in the Disney motto of memories that will last a lifetime!

 

I do disagree with some of your points.

 

Fort Wilderness.

What do Disney have to do to maintain this site?

Replace electrical and plumbing services as needed, add in other services like Wi-fi etc.

Replace the concrete paths, and replace the asphalt and dirt.

 

Upgrade the service points.

 

Tear down old lodges and build new ones.

 

All of which can be done in small areas as needed, and some areas taken out of use as needed.

 

So someone wishing a partial or full hook up at basically an RV park is not that complex when compared to a ship in service 24/7, 365 days a year, and does not require that it be put completely out of service 2 times in a 5 year period for essentially 4 weeks for inspections and upgrades.

Additionally many of these upgrades can be made during off-peak times.

 

The Contemporary and Poly.

Yes they are old buildings, but again, neither need to be taken out of service completely to do foundation inspections for weeks at a time every couple of years.

And even if they did, they are massive structures that will have invasive maintenance ongoing in certain parts that can be blocked off, like roof replacement, new airconditioning, or new sewer lines.

They are also not dependent on themselves to provide electricity or fresh water, so those services are not a consideration.

They can schedule a restaurant to be closed for renovation in advance and those Guests that will book will know in advance.

Imagine if AP, EG, PC were to close for a reno on a ship, or they closed a lounge?

The Contempory and Poly are resorts, but the attractions are the parks.

They have amenities that can break down like the pools, but there are alternatives for those booked.

 

As for the memories, I agree there will be many people looking to recreate that family photo with new family members!

But they bastardised the Magic lobby, who knows what they will do to the Wonder?

And with rates increasing in the region of 10-30% year on year, will anyone who cruised in 2002 be able to afford to bring their 18 year old on a cruise in 2021?! lol!

(OK maybe the upper upper middle class maybe, or those that are politicians!) lol!

 

And if they are on more unique speciality cruises, that are port intensive, I can see that.

But if you had to spread your ships around, and Bahamian and Caribbean cruises were not selling as well as they aren’t now, with GTY offers going into early summer, wouldn’t you send a larger ship like the Dream or Fantasy to Alaska, the Wonder has done well, and where prices have been consistently high, or Europe (who knows what will be happening there in 2021!)

 

I agree DCL are not playing the bigger is best game that others like RCI are playing and doing well with BTW, but at the same time that millennial grandchild is likely to be more addicted to fad amenities and connectivity than we can even imagine right now in 2016.

When you look back at the Magic and Wonder, when they were launched, who ever thought we would have virtual portholes, enchanted artwork, a water coaster, even funnel vision on the scale of that massive TV monitor.

The Magic had venue decor changes, not major infrastructure upgrades, a waterslide that Guests are reporting as being “been there once and done it, over it”, and a Concierge lounge. No on demand movies, no enchanted art.

What will happen to the Wonder?

Who knows, but if she is going to compete on prices with 5 and then 6 sister ships, she will need something other to draw Guest to her as her competition has increased 100%, and new ships with larger capacity ergo more profit could be nipping at her stern.

 

ex techie

[Ex techie]

Arthur,

 

Sorry, the point I was trying to make earlier about the buildings, and spectacularly managed to avoid my whole point going off on a tangent!

Was say the Poly and Contemporary started to have problems with their foundations.

They spend $100k a year maintaining them just for example.

The foundations weaken, so the cost goes up to $500k a year.

A few years later the cost is now $1,000,000 a year.

 

These are all just numbers and bear no resemblance to actual costs.

At some point Disney would say the maintenance is too high and we need to rebuild the hotel.

They would not keep on spending the money, they would demo the hotel and rebuild it. Maybe the an exact replica, maybe the same style but different.

 

Your family memories would not make them keep spending money on bad foundations, when it was cheaper to rebuild the hotel IMO.

 

The same as your Taurus. There will come a point when the motor needs rebuilding or fails, and the trans needs replacing along with the brake lines and it becomes uneconomical to repair vs. getting another car, maybe a new car.

 

Maybe a larger car for your now expanded family.

You will always have great memories of the trips in that car and maybe have wished to have taken one last trip with a new family member, but you could not justify the cost.

 

And as a business the sentimentality is largely taken out of it unless they can capitalize on it as you rightly said that Disney is the leader in cultivating.

But business is business and profits come first.

 

Just my opinion.

 

ex techie

[ArthurUSCG]

I totally agree that the ship retirement will happen based on book keeping. When each ship stop making a profit they will be retired.

 

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[Tonka's Skipper]

The DCL vessels are very well designed and maintained and easily have 30 to 35 years of service life.

 

AKK

[Ex techie]

The DCL vessels are very well designed and maintained and easily have 30 to 35 years of service life.

 

AKK

 

Skipper' date='

 

When the second new ship arrives in 2023, the Magic will be [b']25[/b] years old and the Wonder 24.

 

In your opinion do you think they will run the Magic and Wonder for those additional 5/6 maybe 10/11 years that they could squeeze out of them?

 

What about pricing for ships that are in the later stages of their lives?

 

ex techie

[Tonka's Skipper]

Skipper,

 

When the second new ship arrives in 2023, the Magic will be 25 years old and the Wonder 24.

 

In your opinion do you think they will run the Magic and Wonder for those additional 5/6 maybe 10/11 years that they could squeeze out of them?

 

What about pricing for ships that are in the later stages of their lives?

 

ex techie

 

 

 

 

Hey there Buddy!

 

I sure do. DCL classics vessels are built around the design of the classic liners and they keep them in tip top shape. They are unlike the *white whales* sailing around these days and although some always want a new vessel many guests will see the classics as a whole, not just see her age. The DC cruises are unmatched by the other lines, and those that can go, will flock to them....IMO!

 

I believe these are the vessels likely to be sent to the far east and south Pacific and possibly South America. New Markets and new guests.

 

There is one rather famous cruise ship still running around at +/- 65 years old, I believe shes named *Athena* now (I have not checked in a while), the ex *Stockholm* and yes that Stockholm.

 

I am also one of the growing group that see the Asian market not being near what the pros are saying it will be in size. The China economy is in the dumps, that middle class they are counting on is just not happening. Their are miles and miles of housing the government ordered built for the new middle class, many sitting empty.

 

I believe the new Shanghai Park will be well done, but after a few years will be having attendance problems just like HK.

 

 

AKK

Edited April 19, 2016 by Tonka's Skipper

[jenseib]

 

As for the Wonder.... Well all we know is she is due a dry dock soon. Nothing has been mentioned or any official confirmation of what might or might not happen to her.

 

ex techie

 

Not official yet, but with Disney nothing is official till it happens, but the Wonder is off the list for several months this fall, and it's believed she is getting refurbed then, there is no other reason Disney would take her off the schedule for that long. And we probably won't know what is being done till they are doing it. They like to be hush hush.

The smart thing to do is book a Wonder cruise for late this year or early next before it's announced and the prices jump way up.

 

I doubt if in a few years Key West will vote for larger ships when more corporations get involved, and Grand Cayman will build a pier.

 

Grand Caymen will never build one. They have to protect the coral reef and they are pretty strict as it is with where ships can anchor, etc.

[Host Mick]

I will bet on the next expansion to be in China. Disney has a big presence there with two theme parks so the relationship and the Disney personnel infrastructure is established. On or about the time that he new chips are floated, watch for some one-off Shanghai or Hong Kong test cruises.

[Irene7]

The classic size ships while smaller then the Dream are still not small ships. They are sized as large as possible for the Panama canal, which happens to be the largest size ship that many ports can take, of the have not upsized to the massive cruise ship sized.

 

I suspect we will see the classic ships around for a long time.

 

Also many of the other cruise lines don't retire their ships, they move them to their sister cruise lines, because they cost so much to build. DCL does not have a sister cruise line and I doubt they would want another line sailing ships that look like Thiers.

 

I suspect DCL is planning on getting 50 years from the ships. Since they are inspired by the golden error transatlantic cruise ships, they can agree gracefully. Unlike the floating hotels /cubes of some of the other lines.

Think about when your see pictures of the QE 1,2, SS United States, they look graceful and there is something about a ship that looks like a ship.

 

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I really like your post. You mentioned all that I also feel about classic ships. The beauty and elegance of the disney ships remind me of the liners of days gone by. I can see the magic being permanently stationed in NYC but it will be cold the first couple of sea days in the Winter. But classic ships sure look beautiful sailing down the Hudson.

[Tonka's Skipper]

I really like your post. You mentioned all that I also feel about classic ships. The beauty and elegance of the disney ships remind me of the liners of days gone by. I can see the magic being permanently stationed in NYC but it will be cold the first couple of sea days in the Winter. But classic ships sure look beautiful sailing down the Hudson.

 

 

 

Totally agree!..........................so much nicer then the white Las Vegas buses floating around!

 

 

AKK