Florence

[PelicanBill]

Time to start a thread devoted to Florence. Today, Wednesday Sep. 5, we have seen Florence defy models and forecasters by becoming a major huuricane when it wasn't predicted. Also, the forecast path took a jog to the west, and models are widely scattered so the median of the models and forecast has it heading very near Bermuda and on toward the US Carolinas coast. And maintaining major hurricane status beyond 5 days.

 

All cruises to Bermuda, East coast areas, and NYC cruise arrivals and departures need to watch carefully.

 

[mommao729]

I am watching this storm. I live in Myrtle beach and have a cruise from Port Canaveral Florida on Sunday September 16th. I am praying Florence stays away.

[Cruisin Trkrs]

I am watching this storm. I live in Myrtle beach and have a cruise from Port Canaveral Florida on Sunday September 16th. I am praying Florence stays away.

We are also. Living on the river, right in the coastal center/path of 2 major hurricanes flooding us in the last 3yrs I'm always weary and practically live on the weather channels models from Sept to Early Nov. Lol, it WAS looking pretty good this year so I booked us a 5day out of Charleston, leaving Sept 22nd. Rebooking is not an option for us due to a few surprises I've already gotten in the works. Plus this is the 1st of 3 we've got booked up to next Aug. And our ONLY time Cruisin without any of the kids or grands. I guess we'll just have to continue watching Flo to see the developing path... It makes me very glad that boards like this exist.

 

[emoji924]️ Cruisin Trkrs [emoji597]

[mommao729]

This is our first family cruise in a long time. Kids were in sports in high school. Both went through college. My daughter works and is again in school at night for another degree. So we really want this vacation to happen. Plus there is another storm behind Florence. The weather channel says they are 2 days apart. I’m just praying we don’t get hit in the carolina’s and we get on the ship. I don’t care where we end up going. Hopefully both of us get to enjoy our cruises.

[Webmommy]

A bit worried at the moment. Due to sail on the Pride out of Baltimore this Sunday the 9th to...Bermuda. Frustrating! This will be my fourth cruise, but the first time weather is a factor. Anyone with experience care to elaborate on possible things that could happen? I guess I'm worried about cancellations after SO much planning has gone into this. Thanks!

[PelicanBill]

Sorry for you, Webmommy, as I think your cruise will have a change of some kind (as I did on NCL Breakaway from NYC two years ago.) There is also a cruise to Bermuda from NYC this weekend that is likely to head south instead.

I think the other 2 have a better chance - Sep. 16 and 22 are farther away and we can hope the next storms run into less favorable conditions than Florence is seeing.

 

I will try to interpret the models for Florence tomorrow and see if there is any real ability to read the developments near the Cape Verde Islands.

[Webmommy]

Sorry for you, Webmommy, as I think your cruise will have a change of some kind (as I did on NCL Breakaway from NYC two years ago.) There is also a cruise to Bermuda from NYC this weekend that is likely to head south instead.

I think the other 2 have a better chance - Sep. 16 and 22 are farther away and we can hope the next storms run into less favorable conditions than Florence is seeing.

 

I will try to interpret the models for Florence tomorrow and see if there is any real ability to read the developments near the Cape Verde Islands.

 

Thank you for your quick reply. I think I'm just fine with a change in destinations. I think I'm more worried about it being canceled. A few friends mentioned that cruise lines deal with this sort of thing and have plans in place. I almost wish to get an email from them telling me all is well, but some said they don't mention anything until you get on board. Just stressing I think!

[boatlibrarian]

I'm also leaving for Bermuda this Saturday and stressing out. I hate that so much planning went into this and a stupid hurricane might ruin it.

[johnnypiano]

Ugh. I'm on the Escape in Sunday with DW, DD (1.5) and the in law's. Would be bummed on a change in itinerary, but it's still a vacation! Hopefully by this weekend the weather models will have some consensus so NCL can make an informed decision.

[PelicanBill]

Good morning everyone. Florence news has not improved. The forecast shows Florence slowing for the next few days, so that 5 days out it will not have reached Bermuda. It is forecast to approach on the SE side as a dangerous Category 3 storm. The question now is will it pass to the south and spare Bermuda or start to curve NW? Tuesday and Wednesday seem to be the critical days for Bermuda.

 

Them, we have the east coast to consider. The Mid-Atlantic through New England need to be ready late next week. Wish it were better news. Keep watching.

[MalibuBoi804]

I'm also on a cruise to Bermuda this Saturday so I'm anticipating a possible itinerary change. It's fine with me because I just need a vacation. So far we have not heard anything either so as mentioned before they will probably wait until we board to let us know.

 

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[Debiannlee]

On dawn to Bermuda tomorrow, anyone know if cruise will change position, due to high seas

[Marygracie C.]

where is Ncl Dawn going tomorrow Friday?Bermuda?W e are scheduled to go there but who knows.

[PelicanBill]

Very hard to say what Dawn will do tomorrow and I am sure they will take it day by day. I would say you are more likely to go than not at this point, but if you do there is a risk your stay in Bermuda could be cut short if Florence starts northwest. What I will be watching for is tropical storm force winds. If those are threatening to touch Bermuda the ship must be out of port.

 

Your ride home may be rougher than usual, and rainy. If Florence does not follow the present forecast and turns more directly at Bermuda or northwest into your sailing path, then you will have a great chance of changes to your sailing. Please be ready to return early or late in either are required.

 

If Florence should continue to shift west and say south of Bermuda, all the sailings will be in better shape - except the one Baltimore.

[johnnypiano]

As of the 11:00 AM advisory from NHC, looks like the track has shifted further south of Bermuda, but still a wide uncertainty in the five day projections.

 

 

[mommao729]

So if it has slowed down when do u think it will hit land if it does? I’m in Myrtle beach and leaving on the 15 to drive to Florida and leaving port on the 16th. supposed to be going to the eastern Caribbean. Do u think if it’s going to hit somewhere on the coast it will before then?

[PelicanBill]

So if it has slowed down when do u think it will hit land if it does? I’m in Myrtle beach and leaving on the 15 to drive to Florida and leaving port on the 16th. supposed to be going to the eastern Caribbean. Do u think if it’s going to hit somewhere on the coast it will before then?

 

The 11am update shows it south of Bermuda on Tuesday morning, but increasing speed, so I would estimate the threat to the east coast to be Thursday-Friday Sep. 13-14. It is too hard to predict what it will do as it approaches the US coast - fronts and steering and shear are all muddled there. Stay tuned this weekend and hopefully the experts will have an opinion.

 

I am hoping a front will pick it up and whisk it up the coast but offshore which is a common fate for these storms. Making a serious landfall in mid-atlantic or the northeast is more rare.

[boatlibrarian]

We are supposed to be on Bermuda Monday and Tuesday.

[PelicanBill]

I'll show why Florence is extra hard to pin down. Remember that ANY tropical storm is hard to predict more than a few days out. But Florence has defied forecasters and models on both track and intensity.

Here are the model runs from the two major models used for path prediction:

 

 

You may be able to see that the first model shows a trend more westerly and threatens the US Coast. The other shows more of a threat to Bermuda, with a NW direction and turns to the N sooner. It is hard to reconcile these two different views. So far, the storm has shifted more westward than predicted two days in a row. Atmospheric conditions change day to day and that could stop. Or it could continue. Since Florence seems to makes its own rules, we have to take it day by day.

[1925USA]

Pelican, very kind of you to keep everyone informed. Florence has defied forecasting so far but hopefully it will fizzle out. We caught the tailwinds of Matthew in Canada & had to skip PEI. It was an adventure we won’t ever forget. We were rockin & rollin in real-time.

[PelicanBill]

Here is a link to a very smart tropical storm expert and I always read his analysis carefully when published. He's just released a new one. Scroll down for Figure 3, predicted wave heights for next Wednesday as taken from the EFS weather model run from 2am EDT Thursday (so it's already 12 hours old.) But you can see an expected danger area in wave heights which cruise ships will avoid. Hard to say where this danger zone will end up yet. Lots more in that article if you care to read it.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Florence-Catches-Its-Breath-Potential-Bermuda-US-Encounter-Next-Week

[PelicanBill]

Not much new this morning. Florence still weak but expected to regain major status (3 or more). Heading mostly West to pass south of Bermuda, then toward the east coast and then uncertain.

 

TWO more tropical storms expected to form in the middle latitudes which is a concern for the caribbean, Ts&Cs, Bahamas, Florida eventually.

[Debiannlee]

Dawn now going to Canada, need to repack

[PelicanBill]

Awww. Sorry about Dawn but glad you found out now and can repack.

 

I want to point out at least one news outlet had a headline today saying "Florence Takes Aim at Bermuda". This is what I can't stand. It is mis-representing the dangers. You would think the forecast is for a direct hit based on that, yet the forecast for Bermuda has improved eaxh day as Florence shifts west and looks to pass well South. Yes, there will be tropical storm wind and rain but not so far it does not look like a serious hit.

 

 

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[mommao729]

It’s looking like the Carolinas are going to be affected. So now I will prepare in Myrtle beach. Then hope we will get on the ship on Sunday the 16th. Then who knows where we will end up with the other storm looking like it will head to the eastern Caribbean which we are supposed to go to. So much uncertainty. Already have excursions booked. Might have to start looking into the western excursions just Incase.

 

As of now our itinerary is supposed to be:

Sunday the 16 Port Canaveral

Monday the 17 Nassau Bahamas

Tuesday the 18 sea day

Wednesday 19 st. Thomas

Thursday 20 st Maarten

Friday the 21st at sea

Saturday the 22 at sea

Monday the 23 Port Canaveral.