Wither the time of the newest ships?

[flagger]

I was reading the latest issue of Cruise Travel about the shipbreakers at Alang and I wondered how long the newest ships will remain in service? When will a ship launched in 1999 be considered too old?

 

Will the Freedom be sold off as a floating hotel to some future group of investors? What will become of the ships we all so love today and when will they end up in places like Alang?

[cruising with marti]

The cruise ships of today, probably have a self life 0f 30 years or more.

 

Phil

[Ericknow32]

They will probably be passed down or sold, kind of like the Viking Serenade and Horizon. In the time that I have been cruising I have not heard of any ship from a popular cruise line being permanently retired.

[ocngypz]

You can figure 15 years with major market lines. Then transfer/sale to an international group. Perhaps another 10-15 years depending upon SOLAS regulations and how deep the pockets are of the new owners.

[tom_uk]

hey will probably be passed down or sold, kind of like the Viking Serenade and Horizon. In the time that I have been cruising I have not heard of any ship from a popular cruise line being permanently retired.

 

Canberra? - sold & scrapped in 1997. During the 1980s & early 90s, this ship practically *was* cruising in the UK. But as soon as Oriana was well bedded-in, and P&O had decided to build Aurora as well, Canberra was disposed of.

 

It was notable, however, that due to her fame & success, P&O ensured that she was scrapped and not handed down to another line to be deployed as cheaply as possible. Apparently they retained ownership of part of her keel until it was actually exposed by the demolition process, thus preventing her from being sold 'intact'.

[tom_uk]

One reason that so few ships have been scrapped in recent years is that the cruise market has been expanding as fast as the rate of new-building; thus there has still been a use for older ships, and some companies (eg Fred Olsen cruises in the UK/Europe) have been able to market themselves as providing a smaller-scale, almost intimate cruise experience on 'classic' ships, at a price pretty much equal to the industry majors. For example, in the ex-UK market you'll find that Olsen and P&O do much the same cruises - UK to the Med, Baltic/Norway or Canaries & back, and fly-cruise to the Caribbean in the winter. Fred Olsen, using ships an average of about 30 years old, charge as much as P&O with its fleet of new ships.

 

All this could change if the cruise market dipped. Simple economics would dictate that old ships would be scrapped very quickly - they're already fully depeciated so the effect on the balance sheet would be minimal.

 

Sooner or later cruising will diminish in popularity - all popular things do, eventually - and at that point there will be a massive reduction in capacity. I can foresee that at the end of that process there would be very few ships still cruising that were much more than 10 years old.

[JLC@SD]

It seems that the ships that have gone to Alang (and other breakers), their fate is usually determined when the enconomic life is over and the cost to renovate, repair or bring to safety / environmental standards is not feasible.

 

Norway probably would still be around if the cost of repair was feasible.

 

Albatros (Dawn Princess) suffered propullsion / mechanical problems that were too expensive to fix, and sealed her fate.

 

If current ship construction methods continue to meet environmental and safety standards for years to come, the cost of maintenance and refurbishing ships will be cheaper than spending for new built vessels.

 

If the ship building rates continues, will we eventually see mothball fleets like the military has.

[Germancruiser]

As sad as it is, to loose all those classic ships to Alang or other Scrappoints in the world, if you read and follow this board, one will soon be aware that everybody seems to want cruise on board a new or almost new ship. I am no exception. For some of us 5 or 10 year old ships are really " old" now, even X- Ships, which are really shinny and clean. Those I have been on were spotless clean and well maintained. ( Okay there always people who will find the " stone under the pillow" )

So naturally "our "ships will end that way too, someadays- and new ships will follow, as long as cruising stays that popular. The number of passengers may remain the same or not longer grow this fast- but I guess as long as cruise- lovers can afford it, cruising will stay popular.

Michael

[chasetf]

All this could change if the cruise market dipped. Simple economics would dictate that old ships would be scrapped very quickly - they're already fully depeciated so the effect on the balance sheet would be minimal.

Yes and No.... Ships are scrapped only when it becomes economical. Even Alang has overhead, and if the scap metal prices are too low... the ships sit. Scrappers bid on ships and expect to make a profit. ;)

 

So a ship owner may hold on waiting for prices to rise... or the scrapper may not bid enough for the owner's satisifaction.