Areas to watch Sep. 18-27

[PelicanBill]

Starting a new thread for non-named areas we are watching.  What an active map for the Atlantic.  Two new areas have popped up today.  One at 30% somehow finding a way under the usual sweep to enter the Caribbean, and another at 10% in the Caribbean with little movement expected.

 

 

[PelicanBill]

Now get a look at the eastern Pacific.  Nothing is a threat but oh boy how active.

[PelicanBill]

We're not done yet.  here's the central Pacific, which includes Hawaii.  Kiki overlaps from the eastern Pacific above, but here's three areas brewing but thankfully not threatening Hawaii.

 

[PelicanBill]

On the Atlantic and Caribbean map, a lot of us are watching that western-most area under the Dominican republic. It is, as we say, a "juicy" area full of moisture.  I have a busy day today but will try to post if there is anything changing with any of these three areas after the 11am NOAA update.

[PelicanBill]

No escalation in the 3 areas to watch in the Atlantic and Caribbean at 11am.  Good.

[PelicanBill]

Two areas are still low chance to develop but the newest area coming off Africa is rated 60% chance. Keeping watch.

[PelicanBill]

Here’s how we look today. From left to right we have 10%, 20% and 70% chance to develop. It’s way out there so can’t really suggest any potential impact.

 

of course we learned not to ignore those low chances — Houston area getting slammed still with near Harvey impact and no warning.

Edited September 20, 2019 by PelicanBill

[Ahays00]

Ugh. That 3rd storm  at 70% is making me nervous.  I dont mind cruising during hurricane season ( we always do). However we for the first time have a land based Jamaica trip planned Sept 27- oct 5th. 😒

[andydunn]

Currently on equinox. We were supposed to do Key West on Sunday 22nd but they have announced it will be too windy so we are stopping at labadee tomorrow (21st) instead and then going direct to fort Lauderdale for the 23rd as normal.

 

[PelicanBill]

More development today. 

 

The orange is 50% chance to develop and I do not like that direction along all the islands.

 

The Africa wave is now 90% to develop. Let’s hope that if that happens so early it will get drawn north and die out before reaching inhabited areas.

[soonernstlouis]

Bill, your guess on the timetable for the Southern storm to impact the Windward Islands the way it’s tracking?  I’ll be in San Juan later today & Fascination runs south to Barbados on Friday.  Wondering if a missed port or two might happen late in the week.  Thanks 

[PelicanBill]

1 hour ago, soonernstlouis said:

Bill, your guess on the timetable for the Southern storm to impact the Windward Islands the way it’s tracking?  I’ll be in San Juan later today & Fascination runs south to Barbados on Friday.  Wondering if a missed port or two might happen late in the week.  Thanks 

Too hard to study on my phone so will look tonight when I get home.

[PelicanBill]

Here’s a view from a climate model for middle of next week. Four areas of concern. 

1 is weak. 2 is a concern. 3 is Jerry at Bermuda. 4 is coming and need to watch the path. It’s real low and could cross into the Caribbean.

[PelicanBill]

Down to 2 areas of concern over 5 days. The close one at 70% and the one off Africa at 90%.  The first could make a Bess for some islands and then do the same for the USVI and Puerto Rico.  The second is too far away to predict but is starting to suggest it will move north and out of harm’s way.  Hope so.

[PelicanBill]

The area at the islands has become Karen and a new discussion thread started.

 

The remaining area to watch is that 90% coming off Africa.  Forecast models generally agree on a WNW motion that should keep it away from the islands but it's of course very early.

[PelicanBill]

Today the Africa disturbance became tropical depression 13 so we get a forecast. Although expected to become a hurricane, does not appear to be a threat.

[PelicanBill]

And at 11am we have Tropical Storm Lorenzo.  Starting a new thread not that this one will be very interesting.

 

So now what else it out there to watch in the Atlantic and Caribbean that isn't named Jerry, Karen or Lorenzo.... ?

 

Nothing.  Good!  

 

[PelicanBill]

We have a disturbance on the tip of the Yucatan on Mexico since yesterday but low chance to develop.

[PelicanBill]

Still only 20% chance to develop for that disturbance in the gulf near Mexico.  Generally not much going on.  Good!

[PelicanBill]

And it’s fine and nothing else insight.