May-June Disturbance Discussions

[PelicanBill]

They’re heeeeeerrrrrrreeeee….

NOAA has beguh issuing tropical tracking. The season officially starts in 2 weeks.

Here’s  a couple tweets to kick us off.

[PelicanBill]

In case you are new to us… I post a topic each month (combining May and June) for discussing potential tropical weather. If a storm gets a name and it’s a threat to land or cruising, I create a dedicated topic for it. 
 

I endeavor to explain tropical weather threats without media sensation, comparing to my years of observations and collecting information from numerous reliable sources. 
 

I am happy to discuss impacts or potential impacts to cruises. If you have a specific one, please state ship, sail date and port of embarkation so I can get the itinerary quickly (along with any port and call date of specific interest). We’ve seen many itinerary changes over the years and can give educated guesses about possible changes.

 

I hope you all are healthy and looking forward to planned cruises. I am enduring my first bout with Covid right now and have plans for Carnival Legend partial Panama Canal from Baltimore in October. 

 

Bill

 

[Colorado Buffalo]

There's been some early speculation that there could be something that could hit Florida around 

the 23rd or 24th of May. Anyone hear anything on this ?

[PelicanBill]

On 5/16/2022 at 2:03 PM, Colorado Buffalo said:

There's been some early speculation that there could be something that could hit Florida around 

the 23rd or 24th of May. Anyone hear anything on this ?

I saw that one, rumors of Gulf development, and lower Caribbean (near Belize.)  None have had any substantiation! What is worth noting is how warm the water is through much of the Caribbean. This is part of what fuels predictions for another active season.

 

[PelicanBill]

Here is the global weather trends, this week and next week. Nothing for the Atlantic or Caribbean.

[PelicanBill]

Note the image posted above has updated. Showing moderate chance for cyclone develpoment in the lower Caribbean next week.

 

And on the Pacific side of Central America, higher chance for formation this week and moderate chance next week. These can affect weather on the Caribbean side if close and have even traveled across to the Caribbean before.  So worth watching.

[PelicanBill]

This is a curious new image I found.  I think it simply conveys how bad the weather could be, not that it would be tropical storms.

[PelicanBill]

Something I always watch is the wind shear. This is usually a main factor inhibiting formation or growth of tropical systems. It usually trends down during the summer (trend lines in the graphs) and the Atlantic shear is already down quite a lot.

[PelicanBill]

Another factor we watch is sea surface temperatures. Warmer water is fuel for tropical weather.  It's not far off the average right now, so that is reassuring.

 

[PelicanBill]

Atlantic/Caribbean outlook still quiet the next week.

On the Pacific we have a 90% chance to see a first cyclone soon.  Direction of travel will bring bad weather to Acapulco and other coastal resorts but center of storm appears to stay offshore.

 

[brandilovestocruise]

On 5/26/2022 at 10:38 AM, PelicanBill said:

Atlantic/Caribbean outlook still quiet the next week.

On the Pacific we have a 90% chance to see a first cyclone soon.  Direction of travel will bring bad weather to Acapulco and other coastal resorts but center of storm appears to stay offshore.

 

Looks like this is Agetha now, but if part of this forms in the gulf we will have Alex in the gulf. We are set to sail on the Magic out of Norfolk 6/4 to Nassau, HMC and Freeport. I know we can be rerouted which is no biggie. Also seen this from one of the Bahamian news sources  

[PelicanBill]

Here’s a couple releases on Agatha and Caribbean/Gulf potential.  This is far from the Bahamas - I am quite sure you won’t have any worries!

 

[PelicanBill]

[brandilovestocruise]

Yes, I have seen those but that puts this in S. Fl Bahamas through the weekend. Honestly Just nervous and watching. Ironically more nervous over this than watching Florence come at us head on in NC/SC as a cat 4. 

 

[PelicanBill]

Here is the forecast for today.  80% chance to develop (and a new 10% chance over the Bahamas.)

Let me explain why I am not concerned.  First, the area to be likely affected below does not indicate intensity.  This is not forecast to develop into anything strong. There are multiple pressure ridges to pass through that will prevent this. It might get to tropical storm strength in the first few days, and then forecasts do not really show more than a depression passing over Florida.  

 

I can't find any models showing timing, but I think your cruise may slip away before the storm reaches Florida and it will weaken over land improving your chances to get away. And then I do not see this causing trouble for The Bahamas other than clouds and some bands of showers, maybe in 5-6 days.

 

[PelicanBill]

Here is a formation model for 120 hours (5 days).  Something else to watch to the west of Aruba!

[PelicanBill]

OK I found this detailed forecast specifically for day 3 )(Saturday).

Keep in mind a lot can change over 3 days!

My worst case scenario for cruises departing south Florida on Saturday is a delayed departure and it will be gone. We can assess again Thursday and we will know better what to expect.

 

[PelicanBill]

14 hours ago, brandilovestocruise said:

Yes, I have seen those but that puts this in S. Fl Bahamas through the weekend. Honestly Just nervous and watching. Ironically more nervous over this than watching Florence come at us head on in NC/SC as a cat 4. 

 

I am very optimistic about this  being a weak system overall, and weak over Florida.  A delay in sailing would be mostly to help get around canceled and delayed flights.

[PelicanBill]

I found and ran the GFS model through 5 days and here is what I found:  It wanders a couple days over the Yucatan ( blocking High pressure ridge holds it) then the block weakens and it sweeps NE and E over Florida, but more quickly than I thought, passing over Florida in day 3-4 and well out to sea day 5.  Also the central pressure remains above 1000, which suggests no more than Tropical Storm strength. And coming from the west, probaby a depression passing over the east coast.

 

I attached a GIF of the prediction over 5 days so you can see this.  Just a model, but there are no models suggesting anything stronger.

 

By the way, being the first day of the season, and the danger in Mexico, and a chance to talk about a first named storm in each ocean.... the media is talking this one UP. Don't believe the hype for Florida.

[Nell649]

Would Royal Caribbean possibly  re-route a ship this weekend? I’m supposed to be going to Bahamas leaving Friday from Miami? Or would they just cancel the cruise? I’ve never been in this situation.  Thank you 

[LadyBeBop]

21 hours ago, Nell649 said:

Would Royal Caribbean possibly  re-route a ship this weekend? I’m supposed to be going to Bahamas leaving Friday from Miami? Or would they just cancel the cruise? I’ve never been in this situation.  Thank you 

Are you on the Freedom?  If so, keep the ship ready for us. We cruise on Monday. 
 

Looks like you’ll get out tomorrow. The brunt of the storm won’t be until late Friday into Saturday. CocoCay may be iffy for Saturday. Nassau should be fine for Sunday. 

[rkacruiser]

23 hours ago, Nell649 said:

Would Royal Caribbean possibly  re-route a ship this weekend? I’m supposed to be going to Bahamas leaving Friday from Miami? Or would they just cancel the cruise? I’ve never been in this situation.  Thank you 

 

Welcome to CC new member!  Yes, I would expect Royal Caribbean to sail--as long as it is safe to do so--and re-route the ship to avoid as much of the storm as possible.  

[PelicanBill]

Here’s what I see for the weekend. The disturbance is “TD One” so we have specific forecasts on it now. It is expected to become a tropical storm and is slower now, which improves chances for cruises to get out Saturday. But insane amounts of rain are expected - 11” in Miami!  The more northerly track means less worry for itineraries in the Bahamas.

[PelicanBill]

The predicted path still runs well north of Miami for wind, but flooding will run below the center line wherever it goes so Miami is showing 6-10" of rain and flash floods in the region through Saturday.

 

It's still early and even NOAA says there is a lot of uncertainty about strength.

 

Has anyone received any communication from a cruise line departing Saturday or Sunday I wonder?

 

People arriving Miami and Fort Lauderdale Saturday should be ready for air delays and cancellations.  

[PelicanBill]

Most models are together and tight. But notice there are two wandering off in vastly different directions?  Weird.