Saga on Track to Deliver Significant Growth in 2024

[twotravellersLondon]

1 hour ago, Alchymist said:

We should be reassured that the management is looking at other, equally radical options, although as SAGAnauts, some of us may naturally be worried about how it will affect our future holiday experience as well as the livelihoods of the crews. All power to the management for trying to find a solution - how much of it is their own making, who can tell?

 

Some of the comments about SAGA... especially from folk on various cyberspace portals who've never had a good word to say about the company in the past...   are a bit speculative, doomy and gloomy... even bearish.

 

But the facts are that for 2023/24 SAGA is on track to deliver significant growth for the full year with an underlying profit more than double that of the prior year. 

 

SAGA's Cruise and Travel businesses have had an outstanding year and as a result, these businesses will return to profitability, in line with expectations. Bookings for the new seasons in Cruise and Travel are robust, showing good overall progress. That will drive long-term sustainable growth, and allow SAGA to unlock value through optimising the core businesses

 

Some folk speak about debt in isolation... virtually all of the UK based cruise lines are in deep debt. (At the last report Fred  Olsen owed over £100 million.) However... Saga... will, as expected, repay a £150m bond due in May 2024!

 

The outlook for 2023/24 is that SAGA is expected is growth of between 10-15% with an Underlying Profit Before Tax more than double that of the prior year.

 

Far from the anonymous rumours spread around the far corners of the darkest recesses of cyberspace... SAGA is an upmarket cruise line successfully filling its ships in a very competitive market and attracting more and more passengers each years despite the raising prices.

 

SAGA's Ocean Cruise revenue growth is expected to be around 30% year-on-year, delivered through a load factor of 87% and per diem of £331, both significantly ahead of the 75% and £318 in the previous year. It's highly likely that SAGA will exceed its target of £40.0m Ocean Cruise Trading EBITDA (Excluding Overheads) per ship.

 

Given the ongoing momentum in Ocean Cruise, the business is now approaching optimum capacity. The SAGA Board are exploring opportunities to optimise the business and enhance long-term returns for shareholders.

 

Management? Well... that's significantly changed in recent years and things have certainly changed have certainly since 2020.

 

Some of that may sound a tad corporate and techno speak but... these are some of the key facts.

[Alchymist]

The latest, substantive financial summary of SAGA plc's performance comes in the form of the Interim Results as at 31st. July 2023 (attached, if necessary click on the attachment to see it in full) and I certainly don't want to get into an analysis of them or what might be the case now. However, please remember that businesses fail when they run out of money and this is where debt comes in. I am sure it is where the management will be focusing a whole lot of attention. The year end was about 2 weeks ago and we can be sure that the finance department will be hard at work and they are likely to be published in April. We would probably all do well to wait until then before offering any further comment, however interesting it is to share other people's views.

[twotravellersLondon]

43 minutes ago, Alchymist said:

The latest, substantive financial summary of SAGA plc's performance comes in the form of the Interim Results as at 31st. July 2023 (attached, if necessary click on the attachment to see it in full) and I certainly don't want to get into an analysis of them or what might be the case now. However, please remember that businesses fail when they run out of money and this is where debt comes in. I am sure it is where the management will be focusing a whole lot of attention. The year end was about 2 weeks ago and we can be sure that the finance department will be hard at work and they are likely to be published in April. We would probably all do well to wait until then before offering any further comment, however interesting it is to share other people's views.

 

That's not the case.

 

Best to see the latest SAGA report to the Stock Market of a few days ago which we paraphrased in our post.

[Alchymist]

Many thanks for your response, but your interpretation of the 30 January Trading Update was rather selective as it made no mention of the insurance business where policy sales are down 9%, customer retention down from 84% to 81% and margin per policy down from £69 to £54. Net debt at is also expected to be slightly higher. However, cash availability is not a problem at the moment, it would seem. Cruise and travel is just a part of SAGA plc's total business and it is great to see that it is doing well, but you cannot ignore the drag of the insurance business it is towing along. Please let me re-iterate, I am in no way getting at their cruise business, it's a great offering at very reasonable prices. I want the business to survive and continue to provide me with the opportunity to travel with them again, but I am not blind to the issues the business as a whole faces. I will wait for the annual report, thank you. Hopefully it will also carry some good news about a re-structuring of the business. Best wishes to all subscribing to this board and happy sailing.

[twotravellersLondon]

20 minutes ago, Alchymist said:

Many thanks for your response, but your interpretation of the 30 January Trading Update was rather selective as it made no mention of the insurance business

 

We've not strayed into a discussion on the insurance/underwriting business because this is a travel site and this forum is about SAGA Ocean Cruises. The SAGA Board and the company chairman, Sir Roger de Haan, see the cruise sector as an entity.

 

Waiting for the annual report strikes us as the best idea... that will certainly cut through the ill-informed speculation of many of the cruise-line knockers who pop up on all sorts of sites like mole hills on a golf green.

 

The suggestion of "wait and see" is a very wise one.

 

Like you, we look forward to good news and also hope to be able to enjoy many years of sailing with SAGA.

 

Best Wishes.

Edited February 14 by twotravellersLondon

[Alchymist]

Fingers crossed!

[nosapphire]

On 2/9/2024 at 3:41 PM, nosapphire said:

Thank you.

I wonder if this is the Amadeus Elegant chartered and renamed (like the chartered Spirit of the Douro, which was also announced as a new ship).

Not that it makes any difference to those who sail on her, it will still be Saga whether chartered or owned.

It is indeed a brand new river ship being constructed now.

This is (probably) also owned by Rijfers, chartered by Saga (unlike the Ocean ships, Saga do not own their river ships). Which makes not the slightest difference, as far as passengers are concerned it is a Saga river cruise on a Saga river boat.

https://newsroom.saga.co.uk/news/saga-expands-their-purpose-built-river-fleet-with-announcement-of-spirit-of-the-moselle

https://newsroom.saga.co.uk/fact-sheets/saga-river-cruise-ships-spirit-of-the-rhine-and-spirit-of-the-danube