Carnival and the economic downturn

[calicruise74]

I did the math and you have my deepest sympathy. :( Can you start putting any further investments into an IRA/Roth IRA or 401K that's in good long term growth stock mutual funds? Research on yahoo finance or Morningstar to find funds that have good returns for 10 years or longer.

 

Hi..thanks. :) yea, got the ball rolling on that already...I appreciate that advice. And I should have pulled out when I heard the rumours, but didnt (dumb!).

[ALSPAUGHDOLL]

I feel fortunate that we are cruising in Jan. My husband and I decided to take a vacation with out kids and were feeling a little guilty. When some friends announced that they were getting a divorce we were shocked and sad. Although we feel we have no worries about that we realized we are important too. So we decided we would still go. Even if it meant that was our only major vacation this year, in the long run the boys would not remember if they went to Disney or not mommy and daddy needed some time together. But boy we have been pinching pennies to make it happen. We booked an inside cabin. I started ebaying the stuff that sits around and you would never miss if you sold it. I had a sale with 3 other moms at my house to get rid of all the extra clothes, baby gear and toys and did really well. I put all the cash in an envelope and sealed it up and that is our spending money. I can only imagine how great the DOD will taste knowing that we saved and earned every sip we take.

I will spend 1 week not worrying about the fate of my 401k. I am thankful everyday that I am young and have a long time to worry about retirement. But it sure is hard when you see the loss in your 401K.

[CruiznWithHubby]

Thanks!..Its like I almost just dont care anymore....so ticked.

 

Sorry to take this thread to a poor me thread.

 

But Holly, go get some sleep and get on the cruise tomorrow ok?!!! Have FUN!!:D

 

 

I CANT SLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP!!!!!

[The4Cruisers]

I'm nowhere near those profile dollars. However, even with the current situation, we have strong beliefs that our 401's, IRA's, Mutuals and euity in the house will increase again over the next few years.

 

With that in mind, we are taking budget cruises for awhile. I am shopping fares really hard so we can take an occasional vacation and recharge ourselves to fight the good fight.

 

Plus, the kids aren't getting younger. I don't want to skip vacations and deprive them of the last couple family trips before they spread their wings.

[VentureMan_2000]

We're in a wait and see mode. Even with steep discounts, it's still an extra $266 for TIP and Fuel, and another $134 or so for taxes and fees... plus another $150 for gasolene to get to the port and back driving... and another $100 for parking... plus another $50 for some food and drink down and back from the port. And we prefer to arive a day early... so that's another $150 or so.

 

So, not including the price of the cruise, we can expect to pay an additional $850 over the price of the cruise. That's not cheap... and flying would be way expensive... figure add another $750 - $900 for the both of us... if we flew to Miami.

 

So we are at $850 on the low end... and as much as $1750 on the high end... and we haven't even yet taken into consideration the price of the cruise itself.

 

That's a chunk of change that I'm not willing to forgo for the moment. It certainly wasn't that expensive in 2004...

[LHP]

We are full steam ahead!!

 

We are 6 cruises booked and paid for (including tips) between now and the Blogger's Cruise in February.

 

One is a 2 day, two are a 4 day, one is an 8 day and the rest are 5 day.

 

We are saving money by taking the 2, 4 and 8 day from the same port at the same time. (Splendor and Freedom)

 

And one 4 and one 5 are B2B in January, so again we save in fuel going and coming home.

 

While we hit the model, working etc ...with the number of shorter cruises that Carnival does, I would be very surprised if the average Carnival cruiser would fit into this model....based on the number of college age or young adults Carnival gets.

[Lady of the Lakes]

Do you fit the profile of the Carnival Cruiser in tightening your belt?

 

Length and Depth of Economic Downturn

The economic model Carnival used must show the economic recession to be short and shallow with a robust expansion in the third and fourth quarters of 2009. Whatever economic assumptions are being made, it is a guess.

But the cruise line industry is very susceptible to the impacts of recessions. The average cruise ship passenger is passenger is 46 years old and makes $93,000 per year. This translates to 83% of all passengers still working for a living. Working people in a recession tend to forgo vacations and have to be induced with steep discounts. This is why the length of a recession has major impacts on Carnival’s bottom line.

Off subject but still important, average working people worldwide have seen a reduction in their retirement accounts, as well as the homes they live in. Even if this recession is shallow and short, Carnival will be faced with demand destruction as this segment forgoes vacations to rebuild their retirement accounts.

(Seeking Alpha)

 

 

My hubby and I are above the average age and this will most likely be our last trip due to economic fears. Our salary is not the average by any means. We are very excited to be going and the money spent is well worth it. We made a list of things we wanted to do before we meet the weeds and the port we are going to is one of the places we really wanted to see. That being said, "You can't take it with you" so "Sail Away"

[Crusin6]

If you live beyond your means, then things probably feel pretty tight right now. But many people manage their finances well and don't spend more than they earn. Some of us are able to save quite a bit of our money by living frugally. Then we can get a break from work and relax on a nice cruise! I'm not planning to change anything - I take 2 vacations per year. And I don't make anything close to the salary you listed as the average for cruisers.

 

As far as retirement accounts, you only lose money if you sell when prices are lower than when you bought them. For those who don't have to cash them in today in order to retire right now, we can just "stay the course" and the market will come back up. Actually, this is a great time to pick up some investments at bargain prices - remember, "buy low, sell high." :D

Are you single? Have kids? a decent home that you own? We support 4 wonderful daughters. We are proud of them and it does cost some money to do it right. They are not spoiled do not get everything they ask for and they ask for very little, but we will always take them on vacation as we know from experience how well that money is spent in terms of educational value and family memory making.

 

Finally, living frugally is fine for some and for some it is not realistic or needed. We are blessed with a large family and spend the money accordingly.:)

[cruiselover**]

I was wondering how the cruise lines have come up with the median income for their passengers? I don't know about the rest of you, but I have not shared that information with the cruise line EVER.

 

I realize the cruise line will know your age from the information on your passport, drivers license, and birth certificate so they certainly can come up with an average age for their passengers. I don't know how they know the average income of their guests though. Maybe someone can enlighten me on that!

[Go-Bucks!]

Are you single? Have kids? a decent home that you own? We support 4 wonderful daughters. We are proud of them and it does cost some money to do it right. They are not spoiled do not get everything they ask for and they ask for very little, but we will always take them on vacation as we know from experience how well that money is spent in terms of educational value and family memory making.

 

Finally, living frugally is fine for some and for some it is not realistic or needed. We are blessed with a large family and spend the money accordingly.:)

 

 

Not sure what you're getting at, but I know the struggles of raising a big family. My ex-hubby left our family after 16 yrs. of marriage when our 4 daughters were young. I've completely supported the girls as a single mom for over 22 years now. I nearly lost the home and the car was repo'd. I worked 3 jobs while I went to college fulltime for 4 1/2 yrs. to get my degree. I still work 2 jobs. I put all the girls through Christian school, braces on their teeth, and so far paid for 3 weddings. That's how I learned to live frugally. ;)

 

Yes, I'm still single and the girls are on their own now. I do own a very small home. I just try spend money wisely and be sure that there is always some saved. I'm finally in the position to have a little leisure time and vacations recharge my batteries. :D

 

Not sure that I agree that living frugally isn't realistic for many folks - frankly, lots of people who bought homes and other "stuff" that they couldn't afford and have now lost them, are probably wishing that they had lived more within their means. It really hurts to lose possessions that you've gotten used to (I know), but there is a freedom that feels so good when you're not burdened with tons of debt.

[Mikel1733]

 

Not sure that I agree that living frugally isn't realistic for many folks - frankly, lots of people who bought homes and other "stuff" that they couldn't afford and have now lost them, are probably wishing that they had lived more within their means. It really hurts to lose possessions that you've gotten used to (I know), but there is a freedom that feels so good when you're not burdened with tons of debt.

 

A lot of truth and wisdom in what you are saying. I have a lot of respect for folks that shoulder their challanges successfully.

[glrounds]

I took a high risk by placing my 401k into 100% percent stock, due to my age, I felt I could for another year at least.

 

When my bank was announced that it was being taken over (yea, didnt see that coming), the stock went from $16.00 to .65 (cents!) in 2 hours...I had 6000 shares....do the math on that. :mad: :( Its now back up to $6.00 yipee!!!

 

Was that Wachovia?

 

Yes siree! Interesting times here at ye olde bank....

 

Cheer up ! ! It could have been Washington Mutual ! !

My friend saw her entire 401k (thank good, she's very young) disappear OVERNIGHT . . . while her "temporary" CEO got $19 Million for 3 weeks work ! ! :mad:

[sk8rpatty]

I'm pretty close to that average. lol scary.

 

I'm at least 10 years away from retirement so I refuse to even look at my 401K right now. What's the point...it's down a ton...it'll come back up. Getting upset about it isn't going to change it. I do feel bad for those close to retirement, that's a different story.

 

I'm still cruising!

[calicruise74]

Cheer up ! ! It could have been Washington Mutual ! !

 

My friend saw her entire 401k (thank good, she's very young) disappear OVERNIGHT . . . while her "temporary" CEO got $19 Million for 3 weeks work ! ! :mad:

 

 

Yea,...I've got a cruise booked and paid for so thats a silver lining! :)

 

I'll revisit your sentiment after the end of the year...once our new "suitor" has figured out how to resolve 70% overlap in job functions between us and them. ;) I wish I did work for WaMu actually....they're still in business.

[cathyoo]

I'm a decade older than the "average Carnival passenger. We raised four children on a shoestring budget and any disposable income went to them. Some of the bumps along our road have included both of losing our jobs in 1990 (after 24 years for him and 13 for me) and having a child diagnosed with cancer (4th stage non-Hodgkins Lymphoma) three days after we found out we were losing our jobs. We lived off of our 401K and the medical expenses and the incidental expenses that come from having some seriously ill were unbelievable.

 

We survived and more importantly my son is now 39, healthy and we never forgot to count our blessings. We are going to struggle in our old age.. and we probably should be socking our money away to make up for lost time. But we figure we will laugh and talk about our wonderful cruises while we eat our beans in the poor house.

 

In Jan of this year I had a heart cath go horribly wrong and ended up on a venilator in critical condition for a time. When I realized how close I came to not needing to worry about my "old age" I was more determined to make the kind of memories that bring smiles to my family. So I guess I'll keep robbing that non existent retirement fund to cruise.

[Georgiagolfer]

As far as retirement accounts, you only lose money if you sell when prices are lower than when you bought them. For those who don't have to cash them in today in order to retire right now, we can just "stay the course" and the market will come back up. Actually, this is a great time to pick up some investments at bargain prices - remember, "buy low, sell high." :D

While I agree for the long range, those of us within a year of retirement, do not have the comfort of waiting years for the markets to rebound. What we lost is gone, and we don't have the luxury of waiting out the market. What this economy has done is caused us to reconsider our retirement date. Oh well, as long as I keep working I can continue to cruise.

[tanyanubin]

We have 401K and 529 college savings funds tanking right now. The 401K we can wait out. The 529 is taking a hit and we need it now. My daughter is in college, and it's infuriating that all of the money we've been putting into that for the past few years has evaporated. Ugh. I have stopped opening the statements. I put them on a shelf and forget about it. Our next cruise is in June, to celebrate my older daughter's graduation from nursing school. We've only paid $1000 toward the almost-$7K total of this cruise. But I'm going forward with it. The 4 of us are throwing bills into a bucket as often as possible, and I've got automatic withdrawals going into a special account each week. Hope that does it, or at least puts a big dent in it! lol....I'm also checking airfares obsessively, trying to get something decent from Newark to Tampa.

[glrounds]

I'm a couple of decades over the age demographic :rolleyes: and in NORMAL times would meet and exceed the financial demographic easily. With the California building stalemate (no money available) now going into its 2nd year, my business just struggles along from one bankruptcy-avoiding project to another. :( The construction trades always have their ups and downs, but we always seemed to sail right on through it (pardon the pun). However, I've never seen anything as financially devastating like this downturn in my lifetime.:eek:

 

I'm also a little amazed at how they can arrive at these financial demographics. I'm guessing they have some huge computer bank that combines zip code, age, credit cards, spending habits onboard, etc. and comes up with a reasoned "prediction". :confused:

[Monkeythyme]

I'm a frayed knot.

I am 20 years over and about $20k under average, but I have no mortgage, car payments, tuition, or credit card balance, so I may be able to float a cruise next year.

Bill

[RizzoLee]

Do you fit the profile of the Carnival Cruiser in tightening your belt?

 

The average cruise ship passenger is passenger is 46 years old and makes $93,000 per year. This translates to 83% of all passengers still working for a living.

 

WOW - DH and I combined do not make that amount! We're also in our mid to late 20's (hee hee, I bug him about that all the time!), DINKs. We just got married and bought our first house (and cashed out our savings and retirement fund - in Canada you can put your RRSP's towards a downpayment on your first home), and are so glad we did it at the time.

 

We just started saving again, and have taken major hits too. We're taking a belated honeymoon in January.

 

We've tightened our belts, and are living frugally while still enjoying the 'small' necessities.

 

We average one cruise a year, sometimes with a small vacation in between. Will we still cruise after January? As long as the stork doesn't arrive too soon we can put away savings every month and book when it'll be paid off!

[happy cruzin]

my next 2 cruises are paid off. Im going

 

Us too!!

[TNCruzer]

I took a high risk by placing my 401k into 100% percent stock, due to my age, I felt I could for another year at least.

 

When my bank was announced that it was being taken over (yea, didnt see that coming), the stock went from $16.00 to .65 (cents!) in 2 hours...I had 6000 shares....do the math on that. :mad: :( Its now back up to $6.00 yipee!!!

 

Was that Wachovia?

It actually stopped trading on the post annoucement Monday. It opened at 1 penny.

 

Imagine buying 1 MM shares @ a cent and selling at $7.00.

 

Yes indeed IF...

 

I also disagree withe the $93k demographic.

Did the OP make up that #?

[Cruise, J.D.]

It actually stopped trading on the post annoucement Monday. It opened at 1 penny.

 

Imagine buying 1 MM shares @ a cent and selling at $7.00.

 

Yes indeed IF...

 

I also disagree withe the $93k demographic.

Did the OP make up that #?

 

 

Results of Research

Demographic Description & Profile

Cruisers, the most upscale, tend to be just slightly older (median of 46) than randomly selected respondents (45), with higher household incomes ($93,000 vs. $79,000), and higher levels of educational attainment (69% college grad vs. 62%). Both groups are predominantly married (86% cruisers vs. 84% total). Consistent with their ages, cruisers are also slightly more likely to be retired (17%) than those in the total representative sample (14%).

http://www.cruising.org/Press/research/Market_Profile_2008.pdf

 

The key is "household income". The median cruiser is 46 with household income of $93k.

[BlueC5Kitten]

Do you fit the profile of the Carnival Cruiser in tightening your belt?

 

The average cruise ship passenger is passenger is 46 years old and makes $93,000 per year.

 

Off subject but still important, average working people worldwide have seen a reduction in their retirement accounts, as well as the homes they live in.

 

No, I am younger, make a little bit more, haven't had a reduction in my home value, but have in my retirement account (but I have time to let it grow again). That being said, I am still scheduled for my usual annual cruise. So long as I have PTO available, and my job, I will continue to vacation.

[dan40]

Where do I apply for a "Bailout Billion?" Aww, that's greedy, make it half a Billion.

 

 

Thats net, of course!

 

 

Dan