twotravellersLondon

3 hours ago, kmw350 said:

Hi,

Does anyone know how many formal nights there are likely to be on the 12 night British Isles cruise (Ambience)?

Thanks

 Website states two.

1 hour ago, khkate said:

We've been in S501 twice and never experienced any noise from the gym or any other location. We also never experienced any issues with movement from the ship in bad weather. 

 We've also had a Sun Deck in the same location with no problems and have booked it again for a trip later this year.

36 minutes ago, jh1809 said:

It's not mentioned in the 7th June letter.

 It is...  in the accompanying Essential Information...

EMBARKATION "Should the medical screening indicate a positive test result from you or anybody else in your vehicle, or any other medical concern which would prevent you from sailing, your cruise will be postponed..."

Page 1, section 3.

As SAGA has suggested... we will take our own books and a laptop.

6 minutes ago, Portplush said:

Thank you for posting the update, we are sailing in September and pleased to read that restrictions are easing.   Does anyone know if the taxi driver still has a LFT when we arrive at the port.

Thank you

 At the moment they do.

A letter dated 7 June has gone out from SAGA to clients who will soon cruise. 

To board the ship we will only need a negative Lateral Flow Test which will be administered in our car by the SAGA medical team on arrival and evidence that we've had both vaccines and a booster shot at least 14 days before.

The use of face-masks on board is optional but recommended. Staff will wear masks.

Social distancing restrictions will be lifted.

The only people required to self-isolate are those who have tested positive.

So in the words of Bob Marley...

"Don't worry about a thing, Cause every little thing gonna be all right!"

21 minutes ago, tring said:

There have been reports

Difficult to give any "reports" credibility unless one knows where they have originate from and so it's right to be skeptical...  

We were once of a ship which "according to reports"...  which originated from one person and one person only... was running out of fuel, food and water (nothing could be further from the truth). By afternoon tea the rumour mill was in full swing and  "according to reports" we would soon lose all power,  electricity, heating, water, sanitation and navigation and end up drifting through ice-bergs... (we didn't) 

So it's right to ask for other information because we don't know who made the original post or posts, who they are, what they do, or what their agenda could possibly be.. 

1 hour ago, arlowood said:

We're due to join the SoD in 2 weeks time for our "virgin" ocean cruise with Saga.

Just looking for recent comments from folks who have experienced the taxi transfer service over the past few weeks.

The latest advice from Saga dated 5th May 2022 still seems to indicate "Each household will receive a private car up to 250 miles each way and cars will be thoroughly cleaned prior to your collection"

I seem to recall seeing some discussion about Saga reverting to shared mini-buses/SUV's for those travelling from outside the radius that qualifies for a private car (120 miles?). Don't know if this was just speculation or based on actual experience.

We are planning to go into a mini self-imposed lockdown to try and minimise the risk of being bumped off the ship at embarkation if we test positive. Would be worrying if we found that we had to share our transport to the ship with one or more couples in close contact for over 3 hours.

 

We're on a SAGA cruise in July and our understanding is that private car transfers are included for anyone up to 250 miles from the port. In pre-covid times we paid a little extra... about £17... to have a car to ourselves. SAGA were always very amenable to our requests and there was never any problem for us.

32 minutes ago, nosapphire said:

The report itself is not a month out of date

Following your link... the report begins with "On March 29 my wife and I removed ourselves from a Saga cruise"... ( I can't read any more because of the pay wall) so the experience reported on is almost 10 weeks out of date. 

1 hour ago, nosapphire said:

In the Telegraph today - link attached. Seems you were not the only one unimpressed.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/katie-investigates/compulsory-facemasks-daily-covid-tests-walked-10k-saga-cruise/

May be in the Telegraph "today" hidden behind a paywall but it's a month out of date... and isn't this the newspaper famed for printing obituaries of people who were in fact very much alive at the time?

1 hour ago, LandC said:

I agree that Fred’s launch prices are too high.  Unless the itinerary is very unusual I now wait and see if an offer is available nearer the departure date. 

Certainly up to twice the price that they used to be on a like for like basis when everything's considered and a real turn off when for the same price other lines are offering the same itineraries, better food, better entertainment and far better benefits.

We've done about 30 cruises with Fred... and now find that we're selecting other lines because his whole dynamic pricing strategy is just too much time, trouble and hassle. 

And the Bolette and the Borealis are not "new" ships, they are not "newly launched", terrace cabins do not have "balconies" and a change of names doesn’t make them any better that the Amsterdam or the Rotterdam which they originally were. How Fred thinks that he can charge twice as much as Holland America did for cruises on the same ships... is a mystery to me.

Fred. Jun seems to think that the Olsen "Brand" is something special but doesn’t take into account that in the ten years prior to Covid that he lost about 25% of his passengers, the prediction of a year ago that he would now be cruising with capacities at pre-covid levels has just not happened and  Fred lost £20,000,000 in Jan-March this year.

In my opinion... Fred's just got to realise that he's lost a significant proportion of his "captive market," he just can't attract the high spenders onto his "new" old, outdated ships and, to many people, his 'brand' is less and less attractive.

49 minutes ago, kalos said:

see that she went up the coast to Berwick and back , keeping things running .

That explains it all! The reason that she is shown current at the Port of Tyne is that's where she is. What you've shown is the past tract as to where she was in the last couple of days. Mystery solved.

5 minutes ago, sandancer said:

She’s not been there since Thursday unless she crept back in last night. 

 That would seem to suggest that she's left earlier than the estimated departure date of 30/05/2022. The Port of Tyne also recorded that she moved "seaward" but if that's not being shown on the usual sites... it probably means that AIS is switched off.

We are left with a bit of a mystery!

59 minutes ago, sandancer said:

Arcadia is no longer berthed at the Port of Tyne. 

That's interesting because Marine Traffic and Vessel Finder both show the ship still berthed at the cruise quay and she's still in port according to the Port of Tyne list. But... the Youtube video was posted two days ago. How very strange.

12 minutes ago, Snow Hill said:

Weird things happening in this house think we have a poltergeist.

 

For the last couple of months a bottle of my wife’s perfume has moved close the edge of the shelf it’s on, we move it back only to find it is on the edge again. There are 4 bottles on shelf only one moves, very strange.

 

This morning I noticed the pictures on the wall down the stairs were all at an angle, as are 2 in the lounge. A pen I has mislaid 2 months ago mysteriously reappeared on my desk yesterday morning. 

 

I checked the BGS site for any earth tremors, nothing reported.

 

Perhaps we are getting visitors from the churchyard opposite. 👻👻👻👻

 

I have a similar problem... I wake up in the morning to find that things are not as I remember them... often my specks can't be found, my watch is in odd places and the telly is still on mute... I put it down to the abandoned chateaux on the kitchen surface or even... the mysterious spirits from some ancient glen. 

12 minutes ago, zap99 said:

Off to Cornwall next week. Shall I replace that tyre or leave it?. Computer said to check tyre pressure. The man said, sorry sir, you have a cut in your tyre it needs replacing. Oh well!, at least it was that worn one. ......it didn't cost much more than a tank of fuel....that's inflation for you.🤣

Just come back from Cornwall after a week's break... considerably more expensive than it was pre-covid.

In one hotel that used to have a busy bar and restaurant trade in the early evening, the manager was bemoaning that he only had seven rooms booked that night and one walk-in in the bar. Maybe it's the cost of petrol he said.

When fish and chips for two cost £35 or a couple of sarnies cost £30 and there is very little change out of £15 for a couple of drinks... the petrol is the least of the worries.

Have a good voyage.

Currently due to be berthed at the cruise quay until 30 May 2022. Perhaps the captain likes Newcastle!

14 hours ago, jessybell said:

Who is booked on this?

Looked at this. We have a major celebration at this time. Fancied a balcony cabin... looked very closely at the Terrace Cabins from £18,999 per person + another £4,000 pp for add-ons including "gratuities." So... looking at £46k for two without excursions. Then investigated further and found that the terrace cabins, advertised as balcony cabins, don't have a balcony! Really! So... have been put off and have given this a miss.

1 hour ago, wowzz said:

Surely there must be 800 people out there who would be happy to do the cruise ? 

 Obviously not.

56 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Just had a phone call from Saga. The above cruise has been cancelled due to lack of demand. We are really sad, as we were looking forward to the itinerary,  even without SPB.

The cruise is being replaced with a round Britain cruise followed by a 7 day fjords trip. We will be taking neither  !

 It may be that some folk have been a bit put-off visiting the Eastern Baltic by the recent threats against Finland, Sweden and Poland.

1 hour ago, Britboys said:

don't think Ambassador will be planning to "pack 'em in". Yes, there are quite a number of 4 berth cabins but aiming at a 50+ passenger demographic, it is unlikely that there will be many of those actually occupied by 4 pax. In fact, a number of those cabins are set aside for solo travellers. I believe the capacity when with P&O Princess was 1700+ but Ambassador state their operating capacity will be 1400.

Also, standard fares are not all-inclusive with Ambassador. There are add-on options to include gratuities and a drinks package.

That's all absolutely true but, of course, the "Ambassador Fares" are all inclusive. 

In addition, there are deals to increase capacity. For instance, if four people chose to have two cabins between them the total cost might be £6,176 per cabin and a total of £12,352 overall... but if four people were to share the same cabin, the cost might only be £6,832.

It will be very interesting to see how things pan out.... and what the knock-on effect might be on other cruise companies sailing out of the UK.

It's interesting that this summer Princess, Ambassador, SAGA and Fred Olsen are doing a head-to-head Greenland and Iceland cruise. SAGA has been booked up for ages but the others all seem to have cabins available.

I wonder if this is the Princess effect.

13 hours ago, molecrochip said:

I think its easy to compare the share price movements however there are some differences. For example, RCI sold off Azamara for $201, in cash in the middle of the pandemic. RCI had also been years ahead in transitioning to bigger ships by way of disposals, usually to its Joint Venture with Tui/Marella.

 

The other big difference is cash v equity. RCI decided to burn through some of its cash but doesn't now have large debt repayments to deal with. Conversely Carnival decide to take the financing offered, initially at an expensive price, although most has now been refinanced to more reasonable historical market terms. Carnival started with circa $10bn liquid assets and currently still has $7bn despite making substantial losses.

 

It does however mean that Carnival has a large interest expense on its books and has publicly said that its priority is paying down that financing instead of paying dividends. I believe Carnival were thinking 2024/25 before dividends return but when they do, they expect them to be as strong as previously.

 

That decision not to pay dividends will keep the share price down as it makes Carnival a bad buy for short term investors. Additionally, the extra debt will keep the share price artificially low as someone else has charges over the business until its repaid.

 

Looking to the future:

 

I do think JW will accelerate the older smaller ships leaving the fleet due to environmental concerns as much as anything else. But what it does leave is a gap between the ultra-small Seaborn and the mass market of Carnival and Princess. This is where Holland America sits but its coverage is currently limited. I think HA will get new ships ordered next to expand their fleet and look to pick up some of the traditional small ship (2k passengers) cruisers worldwide.

 

JW has shaped P&O and Cunard's future with his own hands so I don't expect to much change. P&O is on a journey to broaden its appeal and will do so with every new ship that arrives. Its probably was a 10 year journey before Covid hit, started by the launch of Britannia. Its difficult to see if Covid has increased or decreased the impact of that. My sense is that it will shake off the older cruisers quicker but I don't see it ordering any super size ships that RCI has. I expect by 2030 that P&O may have another one nearing two ships entering service as growth.

 

By then Aurora and Arcadia will be gone however I muse that a single Grand class or Royal class ship from Princess could replace their capacity (probably dependant upon when P&O Australia want to replace Pacific Explorer with a Grand class ship, in relation to Princess new-builds due in 2023 & 2025). I muse this as Princess currently have one to many ships given Majestic Princess isn't permanently based in China as planned. This means that by the time she is likely to take that deployment Carnivals JV with China for a new domestic cruise company is likely to have 2 or 3 ships ready to go.

 

To that effect, cruising traditionalists are being consolidated into the Cunard brand this side of the Atlantic, hence their ability to grow with a fourth ship. If the increasing popularity of Cunard continues, it won't surprise me to see them get a 5th ship around 2030. Normally this would replace QM2  and keep the fleet at 4. However, QM2 will be 28 however adjust for Covid and I suspect she may hang on until 2033/2035.

 

I think we are also going to see more of a Princess presence this side of the Atlantic. Regal and Sky last year were popular, and Emerald, Sky and Enchanted are again proving popular for 2022 bookings. I think the at present that's slightly too much capacity but Enchanted wasn't due to be in Southampton! I think Southampton can handle Sky & Enchanted with good use of capacity.

 

Good debate.

Many thanks for one of the most well informed, carefully considered and insightful posts for a very long time.

We can well understand why you say that RCI had also been years ahead in transitioning to bigger ships and certainly that would help to explain the difference in share prices.

Looking to the future we certainly agree that JW will accelerate the older smaller ships leaving the fleet due to environmental concerns The new rules... Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index coming into force on 1 January 2023 and the plans to make it more stringent year after year will certainly focus corporate minds.

On the other hand, we don't think that shaking off the older cruisers quicker is the full answer. It's not so much the age of cruisers that's a problem for the cruise industry... more a case of spend per head. Even pre-covid, Carnival wasn't break even on the cruise fare alone... it relied on on-board spend. The careful budget cruiser who avoided extra charges, took their own drinks onboard, explored independently etc had a good deal but... they were travelling at less than cost price. 

Recently, the non-carnival UK based cruise lines have aimed ensure that the fare covers the cost of the cruise.... SAGA all inclusive, FOCL c25% uplift in fares and Ambassador a combination of all-inclusive and pack 'em in... up to four per cabin.

More of a Princess presence this side of the Atlantic. Well... a recent cruise comparison of a Iceland & Greenland cruise this summer looking at Princess and three UK bases lines... Princess came out remarkable good value for money.

So many thanks for taking the time and trouble to be so helpful and generous with your insights.

14 hours ago, molecrochip said:

Clearly not fan?

 

AD wasn't ousted by any means even if the Institutional Shareholders did object to his compensation package but then this move had been on the cards. Additionally, his replacement JW has been with the Corporation for 20 years, and for the last few years been a keen sidekick to AD. If there was going to be wholesale change, its not happening bring JW into the key role of CEO/President. Additionally, AD is staying on as Vice Chair.

 

The share price remains low for non of the reasons you said.

• Underlying political instability
• Continuance of Covid
• Higher fuel price
• Carnivals debt pile to repay before making dividends

is why the share price remains low. Only one of the three of those is within their control.

 

You are right about the Grey pound but P&O had already started to make this move back in 2017/2018 and it was always going to take time - that was before Covid happened.

 

You mention empty cabins and reducing capacity by removing 17 ships. (its actually 19 ships by the way). Empty cabins were not the story of 2019 with basically the strongest capacity levels and bookings ever. The new ship deliveries of 2020-2024 were set to provide a 10% rise in capacity to cope with growing demand however Covid hit. By removing the smaller ships (and the new ships still entering service), capacity actually still increases by 2-3% but across fewer ships, with fewer overheads and less environmental impact.

 

I know this industry well, and JW, a qualified lawyer, has been carefully groomed as replacement having been treasurer and Carnival UK President. This is no surprise internally and will be no surprise to external shareholders. The timing marks the end of Carnival's court monitoring in Florida, the resumption of the full fleet, and the point when Carnival Corp is expected to begin declaring profits again post Covid.

 

Its the end of one chapter, and the start of another.

Many thanks for your detailed observations. Intelligent and well-informed comment is always a great advantage to any debate.

As folks who are enthusiastic travellers... by both sea and land...  (at times we use cruises as a convenient and comfortable means of transport). Sometimes we'll sample a place on a cruise and then arrange a land-based holiday there. We've no strong feelings for or against Carnival. We've enjoyed the Carnival experience. We're by no means Carnival detractors.

"Side-lined" is not the same as "ousted" but that might simply be a matter of semantics.

We've not exactly attempted to explain the reasons for the low share price but fully accept that some inference may have been implied. We do, however, agree with your analysis on why the share price has been low. However the point is that all cruise companies have the same problems but, unlike Carnival, some of those other rival companies have seen their share price bounce back.

We do know that analysts who do spend their time poring through the entrails of corporate reports have commented with concern that shares of Carnival have struggled to keep pace with rivals like Royal Caribbean. Carnival shares are down nearly 13% in 2022, and they are off more than 35% over the past 12 months. Royal Caribbean shares are up almost 3% on the year and down only roughly 9% over the past 12 months.

We also know that in the coming weeks, institutional shareholders will want to hear from Weinstein, about his game plan for the cruise line and how it may differ from Donald’s approach. Many are impatient to see their investment grow and see worthwhile dividends.

Your feeling seems to be that the new regime will move "full ahead and steady as she goes." On the other hand, our feelings are that we're probably in for significant change, perhaps unsettling change, in the global cruise industry as a whole. We think that we'll just have to wait and see.

As you "know this industry well", It would be very interesting to see your take on just how Carnival and the P&O fleet and business plan might look like in 18 month’s-time... especially in light of the latest CLIA figures which show that, post-covid,  only 73% of cruising traditionalists intend to book another cruise in the next few years. 
 

9 minutes ago, yorkshirephil said:

Some of the deals coming through suggest that cabins that may have been sidelined are being released for sale. Someone posted on the dark side that Ambassador Ambience sailed last week with only 4 spare cabins. We noticed that Tui have put up a tranche of their river cruise cabins for sale on their site whereas a few weeks ago they were showing as full.

SAGA is also sailing full on some cruises. SAGA made over £161,000,000 in cruise sales in the last six months. This level of recovery in some lines is very encouraging for us all. 

18 minutes ago, Vivaldi said:

I appreciate that different itineraries incur different operating costs, but the contrast here is stark, and I don't think that Fred Olsen is regarded as an equivalent in quality to Regent.

I do know that the cost of transit of the Corinth Canal for a ship like the Braemar is less than 10,000 EUR... so the additional cost per passengers is no more than about 10 EUR.

Price-wise... I very sadly think that Fred is charging more for less and his fares are unrealistic in a very competitive world.