intr3pid

To a skeptic, this would suggest one - or both - of two things: 1. You hold little importance to anyone (or an organization) outside of your ship. They can happily live their lives and run the world without you. 2. Your connected life is so stressful that you need to disconnect to have a vacation. The truth is, you can disconnect and have a great vacation. And I can stay connected and have a blast of my own. There is no 'a vacation' - to each of us, it's our own.

A new Edge build costs upwards of $1 billion. The 'revolutionizing' of Millennium and Summit cost $50-$80 million each. You get a third more capacity with Edge, but that's currently going largely unused. Apples to apples, Summit and Apex are quoting very similar fares per night for Florida sailings six months out. Moreover, every new Edge build also adds 1500 new cabins to an already over-supplied market. As a shareholder, I want them to pause any new builds and re-focus on the refurbishments.

Bookings for a year or more out aren't the real issue, but those deposits are small. In fact, many folks are rolling their 2022 bookings forward now that the FCCs have been made permanent. The cruise lines instead need more guests to sail in 2022/early 2023 - booking at a higher rate and making full payments. This is the only way they can (a) recognize revenue and (b) increase the operating cash flow right now. But, prices of the cruises sailing in the next six months are super soft. I can pick up a 12+ night Xmas/NYE holiday cruise (on Celebrity) from my pick of ports for less than $1,500 per person. I can sail to Antartica in February for this price. Or the Panama Canal. These are supposed to be some of the most expensive cruises of the year. Was referring to the Eastern European staff. A good portion of the chefs and the mid-level staff was sourced from Eastern Europe before COVID and the war. Very few of them are returning now. You will find most of the kitchen and galley staffed by Indian/Asian crew. Great people, but need to be trained from the ground up.

Operating cash flow isn't affected by the ship buildouts. And it's this dwindling operating cash flow that's freaking the street out right now. Revenues going down and costs up. On the revenue side, squeezed folks are balking at the upfront price tag of a cruise. The cruise lines are trying cruise-only fares - and hoping for a higher-margin spend out of those on board. But that doesn't work well for the likes of CCL - 80% of whose brands are now mid-market or lower. NCL is better placed with Oceania and Regent. RCL somewhere in the middle. The costs. This inflation was supposed to be temporary, but, boy, the stubbornness. Food prices are up, fuel prices are up, interest rates are up, and a lot of crew (from India, Indonesia, Philippines) is finding easier opportunities back home. Some source markets - Eastern Europe, for instance - are now off limits. To me, for the cruise stock prices to recover, the inflation has to come down. A lot. Summer is typically the most profitable quarter, yet the stubborn inflation broke it for CCL. That said, cruising is a secular growth product, and the industry an oligopoly. If the cruise lines can ride it out till the next next spring/summer, we might just see a huge recovery in these share prices.

Beverage packages = slow death sentence purely from a health perspective, but I love them because their sales help subsidize my cruise fare. One thing I should point out is the 2-3% F/X conversion premium. This premium is built into the fares translated from USD to other currencies and reflects the cost of the hedging program.

There is a power outlet on the S class hidden underneath/behind the mattresses. Worth fishing for on a longer cruise.