Sea conditions for the next few cruises

[carlylecat]

Weather report for sea conditions in the C -

 

Enhanced winter-time ENE Trades wind pattern persists today, with large seas in general, made worse by a N-swell mostly in NE Caribbean.

 

Moderation begins tomorrow...but conditions are so-rough that the slight moderation tomorrow is not likely to be sufficient for most vessels to make comfortable passages.

 

More-significant moderation occurs Wed16 & Thu17, and wind-direction remains ENE, so may be best days for SE-bound vessels.

 

Further moderation Fri18 is accompanied by an E-ESE shift in wind direction (better for N-bound vessels). Biggest issue in the region Fri18 may be moderate N swell MonaPassage & DomRep.

 

Weekend continues mild, especially along N Caribbean, though N swell infiltrates all of N Caribbean Fri18 night or Sat19 thru Sun20...and SE Caribbean later Sat19 & Sun20.

 

Meanwhile...toward ABCs conditions moderate to E@15-18 by Wed16 or Thu17 & remain near that level thru weekend.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

Though long-range models differ significantly with the details, the overall pattern is certain to change...from the winter-time ENE Trades Wind pattern we've seen for most of November-into-December (with ENE Trades driven by dominant RIDGE in W Atlantic)...to a much-milder E-SE wind pattern (with persistent FrontalTROF reinforced by LOs/FRONTs every 3-5 days dominating W Atlantic).

 

It remains possible whatever hint of a sub-Tropical RIDGE persists may eventually be pressed toward 20N as FrontalTROF moves S&E into Hispanola...possibly bringing light S wind to N Caribbean areas from N Leewards thru Virgins & PuertoRico, but this may not occur till the last week of December, if then.

 

It seems this pattern may persist thru remainder of December & possibly into early January.

 

In this pattern, we may experience occasional periods of squalls / a day-of-so of brisk ENE Trades every now-and-then / and more-frequent periods of N-component swell...but otherwise look for mild & settled weather with milder E-SE Trades.

[Zimmy]

Carlylecat, I'm impressed. That was worthy of a meteorologist. But I must confess, I understood very little of it. What does this mean for our 12/27 week? We we have rain? Will we be seasick? Inquiring minds want to know.

[carlylecat]

Hopefully Jim Avery can weigh in here as I think he has much more sea/sailing experience than I but what we are looking for is winds from the south or light east trade winds to have a smooth cruise but especially to have the current north swell eliminated...

 

I assume those swells are causing the re-direction of the current voyages away from Jost Van Dyke and other northern islands and closing The Baths on the north side of Virgin Gorda.

 

The other help I can give is the islands we sail around are referred to as the Leewards in these forecasts

 

Here is the latest outlook and the prospect for ESE winds on the 27th is a good thing for us:

 

N swell continues dissipating today, and is probably only a factor today in Leewards & possibly Windwards. Another N swell occurs Sat19-Sun20, but arrives W of PuertoRico Fri18 night. Persistent LO N of Bermuda next week drives large area of W-NW wind in W Atlantic, and propagates moderate NW swell into N Part of E Caribbean (probably including parts of Leewards, but probably NOT Windwards or other areas along S Caribbean) much of next week.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

Frontal TROF from DomRep ENE-ward may weaken sufficiently during 2nd half of next week (including Christmas) to allow moderate ENE Trades. Another significant LO/FRONT may cause wind to become ESE-SE again about Sun27 for a couple days...but the trend seems to be to see persistent ENE Trades indefinitely after Fri25, though nothing over 20k into early January.

[alexandra cruiser]

We ll be going in June to Adriatic, how do I find sea conditions there?Anyone know if its rough in June? I have real sea sickness concerns, heard lowest deck best for that.Tried scopalomine patches,with no luck.Heard about ginger,any luck out there with that?Thanks in advance.Will be my first SeaDream Cruise so not sure about the ship size in relation to seas in that area.:confused::confused:

[carlylecat]

We have been on the Adriatic several times in June and it has been fine..

 

not sure I would agree lowest deck best for seasick suffering...

 

listening to the waves pound off your window as you roll would seem to enhance the dreadful feeling I would think...

 

The ships doctor has some amazing stuff to help you out, don't worry about ginger or any other the homeopathic remedies unless you are adverse to pharma solutions...

 

the little white pills they offer seem to do the trick for almost everyone

[zqvol]

Hopefully Jim Avery can weigh in here as I think he has much more sea/sailing experience than I but what we are looking for is winds from the south or light east trade winds to have a smooth cruise but especially to have the current north swell eliminated...

 

I assume those swells are causing the re-direction of the current voyages away from Jost Van Dyke and other northern islands and closing The Baths on the north side of Virgin Gorda.

 

The other help I can give is the islands we sail around are referred to as the Leewards in these forecasts

 

Here is the latest outlook and the prospect for ESE winds on the 27th is a good thing for us:

 

N swell continues dissipating today, and is probably only a factor today in Leewards & possibly Windwards. Another N swell occurs Sat19-Sun20, but arrives W of PuertoRico Fri18 night. Persistent LO N of Bermuda next week drives large area of W-NW wind in W Atlantic, and propagates moderate NW swell into N Part of E Caribbean (probably including parts of Leewards, but probably NOT Windwards or other areas along S Caribbean) much of next week.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

Frontal TROF from DomRep ENE-ward may weaken sufficiently during 2nd half of next week (including Christmas) to allow moderate ENE Trades. Another significant LO/FRONT may cause wind to become ESE-SE again about Sun27 for a couple days...but the trend seems to be to see persistent ENE Trades indefinitely after Fri25, though nothing over 20k into early January.

 

I can tell you that we spent the first half of the day yesterday anchored off of Spanish Town, Virgin Gorda, in flat clam seas. We then went to Norman Island for the afternoon and evening and the seas in the Sir Francis drake Channel were flat as glass.

 

We have been anchor off White Bay Jost van Dyke since about8:30 this morning and the sea has been calmer than a bath tub.

 

According to Captain T, SD II had not missed Jost and the Baths but once all season.

 

According the captain the seas are rapidly diminishing, but that could change at a moments notice depending on the winds and storms. It is impossible to predict more than about 120 hours out, so there is no way to tell what will happen with the 27th cruise.

[zqvol]

We ll be going in June to Adriatic, how do I find sea conditions there?Anyone know if its rough in June? I have real sea sickness concerns, heard lowest deck best for that.Tried scopalomine patches,with no luck.Heard about ginger,any luck out there with that?Thanks in advance.Will be my first SeaDream Cruise so not sure about the ship size in relation to seas in that area.:confused::confused:

 

We spoke with Captain T today at lunch about seas in the Med between Grrece and Turkey in late May early June and he said that the sea is usually as flat as glass that time of year. THat doesn't mean that it will be that way when you are there but that is what history says is typical.

[carlylecat]

Thank Zqvol

 

Hope you are enjoying your cruise and lets have the seas stay as calm as glass!!!

[Zimmy]

Carlylecat, according to the Today show this morning, you're due to get a blizzard. When are you leaving for San Juan? We're flying down on Christmas day, and while we are supposed to get some small amounts of snow before then, they're not predicting anything ominous for Christmas in Chicago. I'm watching the weather reports anxiously, and my fingers are crossed.

[carlylecat]

Yes we did get quite a hit this weekend, almost 20" at the beach house where we had friends from Sweden staying (they LOVED IT!) and 10" here at home

 

Made for a home bound weekend and a few parties missed but all survived,

 

It would have been dreadful if our cruise were leaving today though...

 

Looking at the 10 day forecast it has a chance to be quite icy here on the 25th as well but should warm up with just rain on the 26th with temps high enough to avoid the nasty stuff

 

We are planning to head out around noon on the 26th and have hotel rooms reserved for that night in San Juan, we will be at The Ritz if you want to meet up before the cruise if you are there as well...its getting close

[Zimmy]

We're at the Sharaton, Carlylecat. We've never stayed there before, and I'm not expecting anything special. We are hoping for "acceptable." But one year when we were leaving on a SD cruise on January 2nd, we decided to come down on the 30th and it was not enjoyable. The first night we went into Old San Juan and it took us an hour to find a cab to take us back to the Hilton - we finally had to beg someone to share a cab with us. On New Year's Eve we had to order room service because we couldn't get a reservation in any of the hotel's restaurants. The third night we got a cab from the hotel to Old San Juan but the cabdriver had to turn around after 20 minutes of not moving and take us back to the hotel - a real case of "you can't get there from here." So we decided to play it safe this time and save ourselves the aggravation. The only transportation we will need is from the airport on Christmas Day - after that we walk. But you've done this before and you probably know the ins and outs of navigating San Juan during holiday season. I wish you good luck and good weather in your trip down.

[artlee]

We stayed at the Sheraton and it was fine. Not great, but acceptable. They are remodeling so be careful on the room placement. We could smell paint most of the time from our room, but it was great looking out our window and seeing SeaDream 2 waiting for us. Have a great cruise.

[Zimmy]

We stayed at the Sheraton and it was fine. Not great, but acceptable. They are remodeling so be careful on the room placement. We could smell paint most of the time from our room, but it was great looking out our window and seeing SeaDream 2 waiting for us. Have a great cruise.

 

Thanks for the tip, Artlee.

[carlylecat]

I think you will find the Sheraton more than acceptable, we have stayed there twice and have never had an issue, we actually really enjoyed just sauntering off across the street to meet the boat and had a grand view of SD1 docking in the morning

 

Dining is the only issue there but a quick walk up the hill will get you some great food in Old San Juan

 

We are at the Ritz for two reasons:

 

1. The pool for the kids, even though they are older now it helps to take teh wear off of the travel...the pool at the Sheraton leaves a bit to be desired

 

2. Football we are mad football fans and want to watch the Giants game before we board and it is easier to do there

[Zimmy]

Thanks for the reassurance, Carlylecat. We did make dining reservations for the 25th and the 26th in Old San Juan. We particularly wanted to be sure that we had someplace to go on Christmas day, since I assume that some restaurants might be closed. Our favorite restaurant in San Juan is the one in the art museum, but we're not even going to attempt that one with the holiday traffic in San Juan.

 

Right now I am obsessing about the weather. While a blizzard is not being predicted, there is talk of freezing rain, sleet and other nasty things. I suppose that I have to obsess about something!

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

Believe it or not, the Subway sandwich place right next to the SD dock in San Juan can put together a pretty good omlette or breakfast sandwich, plus they make good cuban coffees! Makes for a quick, easy breakfast before going off on a walk-about in OSJ.

[frequent traveler]

Our favorite restaurant in San Juan is the one in the art museum, but we're not even going to attempt that one with the holiday traffic in San Juan.

 

Traffic on Sunday was an absolute nightmare in old San Juan.

 

current "headline" exhibit at the museum is an exhibit of objects from the Titantic . . . I'm pretty superstitious, but since icebergs aren't typical the Caribbean, I guess it wouldn't be bad luck to visit before boarding SD:eek:

 

FT

[Jim Avery]

Traffic on Sunday was an absolute nightmare in old San Juan.

 

current "headline" exhibit at the museum is an exhibit of objects from the Titantic . . . I'm pretty superstitious, but since icebergs aren't typical the Caribbean, I guess it wouldn't be bad luck to visit before boarding SD:eek:

 

FT

 

Call us weird (I think you did already) we watch the movie Titanic before every cruise.:eek:

[carlylecat]

Zimmy -

 

I understand but there is nothing we can do about the weather except plan around it....

 

My dad always said we can only control the control-ables....

 

We are going to have a great cruise and ring the in new year in grand style...

 

Here is a picture of Sea Dream from our window at The Sheraton last year...yep you will be this close

[Zimmy]

Zimmy -

 

We are going to have a great cruise and ring the in new year in grand style...

 

Here is a picture of Sea Dream from our window at The Sheraton last year...yep you will be this close

 

OMG I can't wait!

 

I guess I will be able to figure out who you are, Carlylecat, because you will have an entourage of your whole family. DH & I are sixtyish. One of us is blonde and one of us has gray hair. I guess I don't need to tell you who has the blonde and who has the gray.

[carlylecat]

Thanks Zimmy

 

When you see a group of 9 of us playing "mexican train" dominoes on deck in the late afternoon please stop by that will be us!

 

Safe travels...

[carlylecat]

Zimmy:

 

WE may worry about the weather for us getting down there but once we are there it looks great!

 

 

MARINE OUTLOOK:

 

Except for occasional day-or-so of moderate ENE-E Trades, winds will remain well-below-normal and mostly E to occasionally SE well into January, with below-normal squall activity...but N-component swells may continue to plague most areas at many times thru SUN27.

 

FORECAST & PRECIPATATION:

 

Virgins & E PuertoRico: mostly dry today; scattered showers & squalls to 30k-or-so tomorrow afternoon into Fri25 morning, isolated to no squalls SAT26 to WED30, temperatures seasonal with highs to mid 80’s and lows in the mid to upper 70’s.

 

WIND (for wind in squalls see Precip):

 

Virgin Islands & E Puerto Rico: 140@13 today, 15k late, building toward 20k overnight; 160@20 tomorrow; 180@15G20 late tomorrow, SW tomorrow night, 240@15G20 Fri25; variable under 10k Fri25 night into Sat26 morning; E@5 late Sat26 & Sun27.

 

 

SEAS:

 

NE Caribbean: N swell builds from 8' to 12’ this morning to 10' later today, 9' tomorrow, 7' Fri25, 5' Sat26, 4' late, 4' Sun27, 6' from N-NNE Mon28 & Tue29. Wind-chop component 4' today, 6' tonight & tomorrow, 4-6' Fri25, 2-4' Sat26, 4' late Sat26 onward.