Epic Sailing With Epic Numbers of Empty Cabins?

[Music City]

It appears the Epic is sailing with a very large number of empty cabins. It's now 6 days from the 7/31 sailing and there are dozens upon dozens (if not hundreds) of unsold cabins.

 

So...What good is a mega-ship if you can't fill it? Kevin Sheehan has been trying to increase revenue at NCL by holding the line on pricing, but is this situation with the Epic a basic lesson in economics of supply, demand and price elasticity? How can you hold the line on price when you dramatically increase supply without an increase in demand? Will NCL have to start deeply discounting cabins to fill the Epic? Will they have to sell off another ship or two to reduce excessive inventory in the fleet?

 

Also, empty cabins are a very bad thing for crewmembers that depend upon tips from occupied cabins to make their living. An unsold cabin produces no revenue for anyone.

 

I'm interested in the single studio cabins and I notice there are dozens available on the next sailing, but the price is still too high for a thrift cruiser (read cheap bastard here) like me.

[ColinIllinois]

With global economics the way they are right now I'm sure that it's not only NCL who will be sailing without full capacity this summer.

[DMorris]

I wonder if the new cabin design has something to do with the empty cabins??? But I agree the pricing is a bit high and not sure why they haven't dropped it so close to sailing. JMHO... no need to flame.

[SeaShark]

NCL has said in the past that Epic will not be sailing with a full passenger complement until sometime in the late-August, early-September timeframe.

 

They are intentionally holding back space to allow them to monitor how things are working/nor working as the capacity increases.

[indimini]

I don't think NCL Epic is the only ship with these kinds of challenges. We have a HAL Bermuda cruise booked and as early as 2 days before HAL went to "call for availability" when I checked individual cabin #'s for availability it seemed like an empty ship. (Of course, there's no way to tell how many guarantees have been sold that will fill those rooms.) We also looked at August sailings in the Caribbean on X (Solstice) and RCCL (several ships). All had lots of cabins still available at reduced prices.

 

I wonder how all these mega ships in the Caribbean will fare over the long haul. Besides Epic, we have RCCL's Oasis, Allure, and Freedom class, Solstice class from X, plus the two new larger Disney ships coming out in the next two years (and that's not counting Carnival ships or many other lines that sail those waters.) It's hard to imagine that there will be the level of market demand needed to keep all these ships sailing at capacity. It almost feels like the housing bubble but with cruise ships. Think about it - most of these ships were ordered long before the global downturn in the economy when each line was looking for ways to increase their market share. Now, they've likely combined to saturate a declining market. I hope they all can survive the downturn and keep on providing those of us who like to cruise fun, affordable vacations.

[sjbdtz]

I wonder how all these mega ships in the Caribbean will fare over the long haul. Besides Epic, we have RCCL's Oasis, Allure, and Freedom class, Solstice class from X, plus the two new larger Disney ships coming out in the next two years (and that's not counting Carnival ships or many other lines that sail those waters.) It's hard to imagine that there will be the level of market demand needed to keep all these ships sailing at capacity. It almost feels like the housing bubble but with cruise ships. Think about it - most of these ships were ordered long before the global downturn in the economy when each line was looking for ways to increase their market share. Now, they've likely combined to saturate a declining market. I hope they all can survive the downturn and keep on providing those of us who like to cruise fun, affordable vacations.

 

 

That's one reason I don't understand the fans of other lines bashing NCL....you'd think they'd be praising NCL for attempting to broaden the base of cruisers...by appealing to those who have never set foot on a ship.... the more people who start to think of cruising as a vacation option, the bigger the pie for everyone to share.

[Music City]

With global economics the way they are right now I'm sure that it's not only NCL who will be sailing without full capacity this summer.

 

Carnival isn't having any problems filling their ships in the same economy.

[Music City]

That's one reason I don't understand the fans of other lines bashing NCL....you'd think they'd be praising NCL for attempting to broaden the base of cruisers...by appealing to those who have never set foot on a ship.... the more people who start to think of cruising as a vacation option, the bigger the pie for everyone to share.

 

At what cost do you appeal to those that have never set foot on the ship? Do you tick off your largest customer base to appeal to a small niche?

 

In business, you have to make sure you are not stepping over dollars to pick up pennies.

[dmwnc1959]

Didnt Oasis of the Seas also restrict the number of cabins sold to keep the passenger count down until everything and everyone got broken in?

[Music City]

Didnt Oasis of the Seas also restrict the number of cabins sold to keep the passenger count down until everything and everyone got broken in?

 

I think that is more spin and less reality. From what I understand from folks inside the industry they're still unable to fill the Oasis.

 

You don't build a mega-ship and then intentionally keep your occupancy rate down. If you are incapable of managing epic numbers then you shouldn't have built the Epic. I'm not buying it.

[Collcoll]

That's because a) They give their cruises away almost and b) they have to almost give their cruises away due to the reputation or rather the reputation of its passengers.

 

 

Just a quick response to this one. We were debating between NCL and Carnival when we picked Epic. My sister acutally made the final decision because it is her anniversary trip. However, turned out that we saved $500 by sailing NCL over Carnival. Same port. I don't remember which Carnival ship it would have been. Similar dates. Both Balcony cabins.

 

Also, we sailed Carnival Pride last year on our first cruise. I can't say I was overwhelmed. But I don't see myself as a cruise fanatic. It's a fine vaction. But I'm going more to be with the group than because I love a cruise. I don't have allegance to any line. I'd be fine if the Epic were my last cruise ever or if I had another 10. I just like to travel.

 

So I don't have comparison other than the Pride... and it was only the Pride. But it was a great ship, elegant, comfortable, quiet and yet we found fun when we went looking for it.

 

Guest not so brief. LOL.

[GigCrusier]

:confused::confused::confused:

Carnival isn't having any problems filling their ships in the same economy.

I find it interesting when folks here make sweeping comments like "Carnival is not having any problems filling their ships". Well, I don't know if that is true or not.. I can share this information:

 

Net Income March 2010 was $252,000, February 2010 was $175,000, November 2009 was $193,000 and.... August 2009 was $1,073,000. This ship appears to need to change course.

 

You don't need a finance degree to understand that regardless of how full your business is, if you don't make money - what is the point? I truly hope all the cruise lines survive becasue I like having so many choices when I plan a vacation.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=ccl

[Music City]

Just a quick response to this one. We were debating between NCL and Carnival when we picked Epic. My sister acutally made the final decision because it is her anniversary trip. However, turned out that we saved $500 by sailing NCL over Carnival. Same port. I don't remember which Carnival ship it would have been. Similar dates. Both Balcony cabins.

 

Also, we sailed Carnival Pride last year on our first cruise. I can't say I was overwhelmed. But I don't see myself as a cruise fanatic. It's a fine vaction. But I'm going more to be with the group than because I love a cruise. I don't have allegance to any line. I'd be fine if the Epic were my last cruise ever or if I had another 10. I just like to travel.

 

So I don't have comparison other than the Pride... and it was only the Pride. But it was a great ship, elegant, comfortable, quiet and yet we found fun when we went looking for it.

 

Guest not so brief. LOL.

 

Colleen,

 

When people ask me which is better Carnival or NCL I wish there was a simple answer, but there is not. I wish I could put the best of both lines together and get a superior cruise line.

 

I really like the freestyle dining of NCL and think the overall food is better than Carnival, but their cabins are tiny compared to Carnival's. NCL has intentionally reduced social hosts and weakened activities onboard the ships while Carnival puts emphasis on trivia, bean bag toss, etc. It's annoying to me NCL believes social hosts should focus on obnoxious pub crawls on the Great Outdoors during dinner for the obnoxious few than spend time entertaining the many during the day. For the record, Costa is far superior to both NCL and Carnival when it comes to social hosts and activities.

 

I really want to try Royal Caribbean for a change, but I'm almost Platinum with Carnival and now Silver with NCL, so that keeps me sticking with those two mainly. The best loyalty program is with Costa, though, but they are reducing their presence in North America.

[dmwnc1959]

:confused::confused::confused:

I find it interesting when folks here make sweeping comments like "Carnival is not having any problems filling their ships".

 

I had been looking at some cruises out of southern Florida for this December. Carnival consistantly priced lower than many lines doing similar routes. It wouldnt surprise me if they are filling their ships with these lower rates, but generating less revenue in that process, in turn expecting to recover that lost revenue from onboard sales and casinos. Carnival has recently instituted a strict 'No Discounting' policy to Travel Agents effective Aug. 1st, as well as a solid non-negotiable 200% rate for single travelers. Both policies have turned me off of Carnival. With that said, I can still get a last minute deal from Celebrity or Princess and be on a nicer ship and be just as happy than if I had booked Carnival.

[DrD]

hey, sounds good to me!

 

less crowded. Great!

[Music City]

The link was provided as to where I obtained the numbers, but here it is again.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=ccl

 

Again, you missed this part of the Income Statement...

 

"All numbers in thousand"

[GigCrusier]

Thousands... hundreds.... tens... the percentage and is the same.

 

Have a nice day.

[CanadianTwosome]

Why is it that I read this thread and all I can think of is 'The sky is falling! The sky is falling!'?

 

It's like hearing about someone's month old baby and saying, 'Yes, but she doesn't walk yet... perhaps she'll never walk... and I've heard that she isn't potty trained yet - and can't read!!'

 

Give it some time, people. :p

[SeaShark]

Again, you missed this part of the Income Statement...

 

"All numbers in thousand"

 

When I first read this, I thought there was no way that someone could make a more mis-informed statement.

 

 

LOL!

 

No, it's not.

 

You're welcome for the finance lesson, though.

 

 

Then, I read THIS one! :eek:

 

 

Could you possibly explain, for EVERYONE's benefit, how the percentages are NOT the same when comparing 100 to 500 if we note that since "all numbers are in thousands" we are actually comparing 100,000 to 500,000?

 

 

 

 

 

You must have really been asleep when they were talking about fractions (ie percentages)....

 

 

Just as a reminder:

 

1/5 = 10/50 = 20/100 = 15/75 = 100/500 = 100,000/500,000 = 20%

[Music City]

Why is it that I read this thread and all I can think of is 'The sky is falling! The sky is falling!'?

 

It's like hearing about someone's month old baby and saying, 'Yes, but she doesn't walk yet... perhaps she'll never walk... and I've heard that she isn't potty trained yet - and can't read!!'

 

Give it some time, people. :p

 

I don't know for sure about Canada, but in the US companies that continually lose money end up in bankruptcy.

[jarz85]

Just my 2 cents worth, this ship is on its 3rd? 4th? sailing. If they sold every single room and the crew aren't used to the ship yet, then everyone would come back saying 'the staff we so helpless, oh the lines are so long for the restaurants and shows, the pool deck was so full'

 

Agreed that less people on the ship means more for you and I to do :D

[GigCrusier]

LOL!

 

No, it's not.

 

You're welcome for the finance lesson, though.

Oh yea, you are correct about the percentage comment. My Bad! So, back to the origional comment. Where are your facts about Carnival not having a problem filling cabins? Total revenue and Gross profits are also down in 2010 vs 2009. Must be MAJOR discounts going on or less cabins.

 

I look forward to your insighfull anlysis.

 

Thank you...

[indimini]

Found this article to be an interesting objective take on CCL, RCL and NCL numbers.

 

I just hope all the lines continue to succeed as it benefits the customers most when they are profitable and can stop having to cut corners to make ends meet. As for the Epic, two weeks of sailing are not nearly enough evidence to call the ship a success or failure imho.

[GigCrusier]

Found this article to be an interesting objective take on CCL, RCL and NCL numbers.

 

I just hope all the lines continue to succeed as it benefits the customers most when they are profitable and can stop having to cut corners to make ends meet. As for the Epic, two weeks of sailing are not nearly enough evidence to call the ship a success or failure imho.

Indimini,

 

Great artical. I read it while back and there was a thread here that ripped it a part too. I agree that it will be nice when this world wide recession is over and hope eveyone will make it through. I like having lots of choices!

[DocJohnB]

Didnt Oasis of the Seas also restrict the number of cabins sold to keep the passenger count down until everything and everyone got broken in?

 

I don't think that is the case so much as Richard Fain (or the bean counters at RCI) making a decision to hold tight on their pricing . . . . even if it leads to sailing with empty cabins.

 

I have to admit thought, that either way, the bottom line is the same . . . . empty cabins equate to lost revenue.