OKCruiseMan Posted October 22, 2012 #1 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It looks like Tropical Storm #18 will become "Sandy" within the next 24 hours. Here are the webcams in the projected path. Hope all she does is add a little sand to the beaches! Stay Safe, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holders3 Posted October 22, 2012 #2 Share Posted October 22, 2012 On Magic now. Just announced change of itinerary to Key West and Costa Maya. Still stopping at Cozumal so far. Oh well, new adventure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare crewsweeper Posted October 22, 2012 #3 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I thought the HHs were going out til later today. Or at least not arriving on site until later. Anyway, projected tracks should be caution to ships at sea now returning on Friday or Saturday through the Bahamas. But if the front from the Northeast grabs it, this will be out into the Atlantic if not gone by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoCoNut Willie Posted October 22, 2012 #4 Share Posted October 22, 2012 On Magic now. Just announced change of itinerary to Key West and Costa Maya. Still stopping at Cozumal so far. Oh well, new adventure. Sounds like you're still going to have a good time. We're on Magic next week, we'll roll with the punches also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted October 22, 2012 #5 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I am very worried. I leave Saturday for my cruise ... hope we do not miss HMC on Sunday. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted October 22, 2012 #6 Share Posted October 22, 2012 On Magic now. Just announced change of itinerary to Key West and Costa Maya. Still stopping at Cozumal so far. Oh well, new adventure. Where were you suppose to go? Now you are going to Key West and Costa Maya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKCruiseMan Posted October 22, 2012 Author #7 Share Posted October 22, 2012 THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN FACT...THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN BY AT LEAST 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS FAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AS IT IS APPROACHING JAMAICA. AFTER 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AND NEARLY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE ON MORE HYBRID CHARACTERISTICS...SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM BY DAY 5. Sounds like it will be more of a problem this week for Jamaica, but maybe just a little rain and wind as it gets to the TCI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKCruiseMan Posted October 22, 2012 Author #8 Share Posted October 22, 2012 THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BAND OF SURFACE WINDS NEAR35 KT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR...AND THE STORM WILL BE OVER WARM WATERS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...HOWEVER...AS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. Well, she has a real name now (no longer just #18). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holders3 Posted October 22, 2012 #9 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Where were you suppose to go? Now you are going to Key West and Costa Maya? We were going to Jamaica and Grand Caymans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krisl Posted October 22, 2012 #10 Share Posted October 22, 2012 :( I am cruising this weekend to Nassau and CocoCay on Monarch of the Seas. Does RC usually re-route to any particular destination in these situations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CruisinSinceIwasBorn Posted October 22, 2012 #11 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I can't believe this. I am leaving on the Imagination on Friday. Would they possibly change to Key West instead of the Bahamas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MsTee Posted October 22, 2012 #12 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I guess I have to break the bad news to my BFF. She's leaving this weekend on the Miracle out of NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CruisinSinceIwasBorn Posted October 22, 2012 #13 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I am very worried. I leave Saturday for my cruise ... hope we do not miss HMC on Sunday. Thoughts? Still probably going to be pretty choppy on Sunday, so there is probably a fairly high chance they won't be able to tender into HMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SportsFanatic Posted October 22, 2012 #14 Share Posted October 22, 2012 :( I am cruising this weekend to Nassau and CocoCay on Monarch of the Seas. Does RC usually re-route to any particular destination in these situations? YES, I am on Monarch also and if bad will change to Cozumel. Just have to keep an eye on it.. They will probably know more mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tandoorii Posted October 22, 2012 #15 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Tighten your life jacket honey, it's going to be a bumpy ride...;) Sorry, I just had to say that again...:D We leave Miami on NCL SUN Wednesday for 11 nights and have to pass between Cuba and Hispaniola on way to Cartagena. So by Thursday or Friday we should be in the middle of it. Some think we'll traverse the west side of Cuba instead. I'm hoping the captain is a cowboy at heart! Safe travels space fans... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLSteve11 Posted October 22, 2012 #16 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I can't believe this. I am leaving on the Imagination on Friday. Would they possibly change to Key West instead of the Bahamas? We're going on the NCL Sky this friday, so we're in the same boat. They have to go to a non-US port during the itinerary, so it's doubtful they will go to Key West. They would have to add Nassau for Sunday to make that work. My guess will be you do get to Nassau (if it continues on it's current cone of probability), though it might be on Sunday with an at-sea on saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLSteve11 Posted October 22, 2012 #17 Share Posted October 22, 2012 YES, I am on Monarch also and if bad will change to Cozumel. Just have to keep an eye on it.. They will probably know more mid week I don't think they can get to Cozumel and back on a 3-night itinerary. They need a day to get there, and a day to get back, besides the day you are there. I think all us weekend 3-nighters will make Nassau on sunday, and probably be at-sea saturday (depending on port space in Nassau). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
horsingaround Posted October 22, 2012 #18 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I'm also watching Sandy's track closely. Heading out Saturday on the Ecstasy - supposed to be going to Key West, then hit the Bahamas. Oh well, even a bumpy ride on a cruise ship is better than being at work :D We'll just roll with whatever happens. I am always aware of this possibility when I book during this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SportsFanatic Posted October 23, 2012 #19 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I don't think they can get to Cozumel and back on a 3-night itinerary. They need a day to get there, and a day to get back, besides the day you are there. I think all us weekend 3-nighters will make Nassau on sunday, and probably be at-sea saturday (depending on port space in Nassau). yea, I think you are right. I think someone told me wrong. They might later later stay in Nassau if possible? I have heard of them doing that. I checked and we were only ship other than Imagination scheduled for Sat..Sun is showing total of 3 ships scheduled to be there..so you never know.. let's how this storm stays away from us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKCruiseMan Posted October 23, 2012 Author #20 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Sounds like the NWS is saying Sandy will be a hurricane by the time it gets to Jamaica... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF LOW SHEAR...WARM WATERS... AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS BRING SANDY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CruisinSinceIwasBorn Posted October 23, 2012 #21 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Is it possible that the Imagniation might just sail out to calmer waters and we will have 2 days at sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Gail & Marty sailing away Posted October 23, 2012 #22 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Maybe it will go away ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare crewsweeper Posted October 23, 2012 #23 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Once TS Sandy reaches the mountains of eastern Cuba and crosses to the Bahamas later this week, wind shear will pick up significantly and by Friday/Saturday it'll have a decent probability of being just a sub-tropical system. There still exists a chance that the front moving across the northern US links TS Sandy up with the Jet Stream and pushes it over the north/northeast US. Won't know that until Thursday/Friday. In the meantime, in the mortal words of Doug Addams, "Don't Panic".:eek: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKCruiseMan Posted October 23, 2012 Author #24 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I agree, I think the worst will be Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti. I bet it will just be bad weather for the Bahamas and TCI. However, I'm not the expert... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKCruiseMan Posted October 25, 2012 Author #25 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like it is bigger than they thought. I've updated the webcams for the Bahams. Be safe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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