Prepare to be insulted !

[moomoocow]

Correct

 

Put them all together and a pattern emerges

 

Hence: Cruise Critic

 

Put them "ALL" together is right.

 

But we have established earlier that the reviews for cruise lines on CC are by English speakers and that English speakers constitute only 5% of the pax on MSC cruises (pre Divina)

 

I'm not great at maths or statistics but even I can see that the opinions of less that five percent of a products users, of which they are not the target market and are using an unfamiliar product in a foreign location is not in any way representative of a FACTUAL representation of that products performance.

[Skipper Tim]

I think the point is those are the wrong numbers to use.

 

It's not cruisecritic's share that's important as a proportion.

 

It's the absolute numbers reviewing that is the significance.

 

And then whether you have bias at all, which hasn't been touched on.

 

No, no, no, no! Self-selection renders the sample unrepresentative. Those that review often have an axe to grind, they are more likely to be native English speakers, live in certain parts of the World, be internet-savvy etc., etc. etc. Zilch can be inferred about a cruise line from a self-selected sample of its guests. Absolute zilch. As I said before, the only meaning conveyed is about the group that self-select themselves to give a rating.

 

So, your opinion is statistically insignificant

 

Yes, as far as the ratings are concerned, no one's opinion is significant unless they were randomly selected which they have not been. The ratings are a bit of fun or a means for the disgruntled to let off steam. They say absolutely nothing about a cruise line. Nothing!

[All aboard??]

No, no, no, no! Self-selection renders the sample unrepresentative. Those that review often have an axe to grind, they are more likely to be native English speakers, live in certain parts of the World, be internet-savvy etc., etc. etc. Zilch can be inferred about a cruise line from a self-selected sample of its guests. Absolute zilch. As I said before, the only meaning conveyed is about the group that self-select themselves to give a rating.

 

 

 

Yes, as far as the ratings are concerned, no one's opinion is significant unless they were randomly selected which they have not been. The ratings are a bit of fun or a means for the disgruntled to let off steam. They say absolutely nothing about a cruise line. Nothing!

 

I believe this may be in order Tim....

 

"Thought would destroy their paradise. No more. Where ignorance is bliss, 'tis folly to be wise".

[Deckhandoug]

We working with statistics here; the Cruise Review enthusiasts continually refer to them as being a true reflection of what cruisers think about certain lines....

 

However what they fail to understand is that in order for statistics to be credible the source needs to be a reflection of the market - you cannot regard 122000 as being a true reflection of the cruise market when only 1% of those people have cruised on a line that holds 7% of same market, which is the source is supposedly meant to represent.

 

I believe that in this world we have two kinds of people; one that follows Descartes and one that follows Thomas Gray......

 

Hmmmm, I've never been interviewed for a Presidential poll and the sampling is rather small but they are accurate election after election.

[Deckhandoug]

No, no, no, no! Self-selection renders the sample unrepresentative. Those that review often have an axe to grind, they are more likely to be native English speakers, live in certain parts of the World, be internet-savvy etc., etc. etc. Zilch can be inferred about a cruise line from a self-selected sample of its guests. Absolute zilch. As I said before, the only meaning conveyed is about the group that self-select themselves to give a rating.

 

 

 

Yes, as far as the ratings are concerned, no one's opinion is significant unless they were randomly selected which they have not been. The ratings are a bit of fun or a means for the disgruntled to let off steam. They say absolutely nothing about a cruise line. Nothing!

 

What about the German site and it's rating Carnival so high?

 

Are you going to tell us that positive reviews are insignificant too?

 

No one believes all this odd reasoning thrown left and right trying to make your points, you contradict yourselves too much.

[Deckhandoug]

Anyhow, enough everyone, all this bickering isn't getting us anywhere.

 

The truth, as they say, is somewhere in the middle:)

[Skipper Tim]

Hmmmm, I've never been interviewed for a Presidential poll and the sampling is rather small but they are accurate election after election.

 

The size of a representative sample makes a difference to accuracy. A couple of thousand is enough to give an accurate enough result for polling purposes. Say we had a representative sample of 3,200, that is 0.000001% of the population of the U.S.A and yet it would yield a result we could be 95% confident about to within ±1.7% for the whole population.

 

Now if you asked the whole population via TV and radio to go to a website and indicate which way they were going to vote, you could get 10,000 times as many people (32 million) but it would say nothing about the rest of the population and hence would be a totally useless indicator.

 

In the extreme, the opinion of one MSC guest picked at random would give more accurate results than 50% of all guests volunteering their opinion.

 

Think on that.

 

P.S. I like the way you suggest to stop bickering when you have finally lost the argument over ratings :).

 

I believe this may be in order Tim....

 

"Thought would destroy their paradise. No more. Where ignorance is bliss, 'tis folly to be wise".

 

Thomas Grey, 1742, I believe.

 

When Mark is Dancing

He shakes and jumps

He bobbles and bumps

He wobbles his stumps

He wiggles his lumps

He kicks off his shoes

He licks up his booze

He gargles the tunes

He plays the spoons

He glides through the air

He orbits with flair

He kisses and smiles

It cures my piles

When Mark is dancing

 

[Tim Millea, 1987]

[Deckhandoug]

Sorry Tim, I've lost nothing

 

The fact remains MSC is the lowest rated line on cruise critic, nothing you've posted can refute that FACT

[The_Big_M]

Sorry Tim, I've lost nothing

 

The fact remains MSC is the lowest rated line on cruise critic, nothing you've posted can refute that FACT

 

Facts abound. But it's a matter of sifting through the dross for the significant ones.

 

That said, I don't agree a sample of one from a massive population is statistically valid.

[papcx]

This is really getting boring now!

 

Yes it's true MSC is the lowest ranked cruise line on cruise critic. That's a fact, no one is debating that.

 

Some people will look at that FACT and believe MSC is a bad cruising experience, and for some they may be, but for many (myself included) they are not.

 

My DW jokingly use the phrase "it's in the papers [newspapers] so it must be true". She uses that because she and I know that if you look below the surface on most things there are usually elements that skew a persons perception of what is actually happening.

 

In this case, people who have cruised with MSC understand that the reviews are mainly written by the USA market and they expect/desire something different to what MSC provide. It remains to be seen if the USA market will adapt to MSCs offering or more likely, MSC will change its product for the USA, as it seems to be doing on the Divina for year round USA sailings.

 

None of this really interests or effects me. I've 2 cruises booked on MSC (please no more cancellations) and if I experience the same product quality as I did last year, I'll be an MSC cruiser for a long time. Yes I have to jump through hoops (MSC Armonia Gran Canaria to Venice anyone?) but the pricing means I can cruise every year (twice if on shorter itineraries) which is something not possible of the so called higher ranked lines.

 

/rant.

[Skipper Tim]

Facts abound. But it's a matter of sifting through the dross for the significant ones.

 

I would say it is more of trying to understand the personal point of view of the reviewer before inferring anything about the reviewed. I have wasted years on Tripadvisor interpreting millions of ignorant comments. "the dross'. Every now and then there is a piece of information that has the ring of truth about it - and the reviewer and I may have totally different viewpoints on it. Reliable information is hard to come by in the information age.

 

That said, I don't agree a sample of one from a massive population is statistically valid.

 

When you buy me a drink sometime, I will explain and I will convince you beyond any reasonable doubt. Statistics is the mathematics that adjusts for any sample size, all the way down to a sample size of one. 50% self-participation will always be a less reliable indicator than one randomly selected person except when there is an exact 50-50 split in opinion. Then the indicators are exactly equal. Anything less than 50% self-participation then one random person will give a more representative opinion. It is old mathematics commissioned in the 18th Century by the French for gambling purposes and stands true and uncorrected to this day.

 

This is really getting boring now!

 

Yes it's true MSC is the lowest ranked cruise line on cruise critic. That's a fact, no one is debating that.

 

Some people will look at that FACT and believe MSC is a bad cruising experience, and for some they may be, but for many (myself included) they are not.

 

My DW jokingly use the phrase "it's in the papers [newspapers] so it must be true". She uses that because she and I know that if you look below the surface on most things there are usually elements that skew a persons perception of what is actually happening.

 

In this case, people who have cruised with MSC understand that the reviews are mainly written by the USA market and they expect/desire something different to what MSC provide. It remains to be seen if the USA market will adapt to MSCs offering or more likely, MSC will change its product for the USA, as it seems to be doing on the Divina for year round USA sailings.

 

None of this really interests or effects me. I've 2 cruises booked on MSC (please no more cancellations) and if I experience the same product quality as I did last year, I'll be an MSC cruiser for a long time. Yes I have to jump through hoops (MSC Armonia Gran Canaria to Venice anyone?) but the pricing means I can cruise every year (twice if on shorter itineraries) which is something not possible of the so called higher ranked lines.

 

/rant.

 

The recent debate has been about the discrepancy between the 'ratings' and the experience. The latter is why we are booked. The boring bit is trying to explain the 'ratings'. Ignorance, as Duane quoted the lines, may be bliss but the ignorant have to be prepared not only to be insulted but corrected when they say things which are an ignorant reading of the 'facts'.

 

Happy Ramadam Bayram for tomorrow!

[reic0002]

Do you think we could get back to the original topic?

 

I logged on to find out what problems other people were having with trying to get compensation for cancelled flights back from Sharm on the cruise departing from Venice on 1 Nov 2013, not to get into a slanging match!:(

 

As I don't check my home emails every day I only got my notification at the end of last week and have been trying to negotiate a refund for my flight from Sharm ever since. Yes, I know I can get an amendment with EJ for £35 to fly Las Palmas to Gatwick but I object to paying EJ any more than I have to and I can get a flight from LP to Bristol (where I live -with Thomson) for under half the price I paid to get to Gatwick and it means I won't have to pay for travel from Gatwick.

 

Now, I don't think it is unreasonable for MSC to refund this money (approx £200) as they are the ones who cancelled. As someone said, no FO advice has been given not to travel; therefore there is no claim to be made on insurance (even if you could!). I was quite prepared to go as the only reason I booked that cruise was to go thru the Suez canal! A cruise in the Canaries in November is not high on my list but I will go as that time is now booked off work.

 

An interesting snippet - I was working at home on Monday and had a call from a very cheery lady from MSC saying they were completely shutting down all bookings for this cruise (Venice to LP on 1.11.13) and I had to make a very quick decision, there and then, as to whether I wanted to transfer to it or not! After I got my breath, I explained that actually I was in email correspondence with MSC as to whether they would refund my flight and couldn't therefore say yes. She very quickly rang off! Very soon after that, I emailed my acceptance of the cruise and included in it my dissatisfaction with MSC customer service on this matter. I also just happened to cc the CEO of MSC in my email.;) Surprise, surprise - I have heard nothing since.

 

Anybody got any update?

[reic0002]

"None of this really interests or effects me. I've 2 cruises booked on MSC (please no more cancellations) and if I experience the same product quality as I did last year, I'll be an MSC cruiser for a long time. Yes I have to jump through hoops (MSC Armonia Gran Canaria to Venice anyone?) but the pricing means I can cruise every year (twice if on shorter itineraries) which is something not possible of the so called higher ranked lines. "

 

Totally agree! I'm fortunate enough in my work to be able to take 4 or 5 holidays a year (depending on length obviously) and as I love cruises, would not be able to do this without MSC.

 

I'm a Gold (nearly Black) on MSC (and before anybody gets snotty I am lucky enough also to be a Gold on Cunard and P&O!) and I use MSC a lot because of their very good prices on good ships, especially for single supplements, and their, mainly, very good service. And yes, I'll be on Armonia but from Venice to Gran Canaria! See you all there:)

[AmoMondo]

Reic0002, we are still waiting for a response also. Our roll call for the reverse repo has a joint letter in asking for refund of things like non refundable flights. It's been acknowledged but we await their full response (no doubt from Napoli!)

[Skipper Tim]

Do you think we could get back to the original topic?

 

I logged on to find out what problems other people were having with trying to get compensation for cancelled flights back from Sharm on the cruise departing from Venice on 1 Nov 2013, not to get into a slanging match!:(

 

As I don't check my home emails every day I only got my notification at the end of last week and have been trying to negotiate a refund for my flight from Sharm ever since. Yes, I know I can get an amendment with EJ for £35 to fly Las Palmas to Gatwick but I object to paying EJ any more than I have to and I can get a flight from LP to Bristol (where I live -with Thomson) for under half the price I paid to get to Gatwick and it means I won't have to pay for travel from Gatwick.

 

Now, I don't think it is unreasonable for MSC to refund this money (approx £200) as they are the ones who cancelled. As someone said, no FO advice has been given not to travel; therefore there is no claim to be made on insurance (even if you could!). I was quite prepared to go as the only reason I booked that cruise was to go thru the Suez canal! A cruise in the Canaries in November is not high on my list but I will go as that time is now booked off work.

 

An interesting snippet - I was working at home on Monday and had a call from a very cheery lady from MSC saying they were completely shutting down all bookings for this cruise (Venice to LP on 1.11.13) and I had to make a very quick decision, there and then, as to whether I wanted to transfer to it or not! After I got my breath, I explained that actually I was in email correspondence with MSC as to whether they would refund my flight and couldn't therefore say yes. She very quickly rang off! Very soon after that, I emailed my acceptance of the cruise and included in it my dissatisfaction with MSC customer service on this matter. I also just happened to cc the CEO of MSC in my email.;) Surprise, surprise - I have heard nothing since.

 

Anybody got any update?

 

reic0002, as Amomondo said, our reverse repo roll call is in negotiations with MSC UK. We have been asked for proof of out of pocket expenses as a result of the itinerary cancellation/change with the words that each claim will be looked at on an individual basis. I submitted mine Monday without substantive response so far.

[pmacher61]

No, no, no, no! Self-selection renders the sample unrepresentative. Those that review often have an axe to grind, they are more likely to be native English speakers, live in certain parts of the World, be internet-savvy etc., etc. etc. Zilch can be inferred about a cruise line from a self-selected sample of its guests. Absolute zilch. As I said before, the only meaning conveyed is about the group that self-select themselves to give a rating.

Yes, as far as the ratings are concerned, no one's opinion is significant unless they were randomly selected which they have not been. The ratings are a bit of fun or a means for the disgruntled to let off steam. They say absolutely nothing about a cruise line. Nothing!

 

Skip, would you concede that while the CC Cruisers' Choice poll results may not be based upon a perfectly random sampling of MSC cruisers (principally because Europeans don't participate in the poll in proportion to their number of total MSC cruisers), it is based upon a sufficiently large random sampling of those who, to paraphrase you, are "native English speakers, live in an English speaking part of the world (overwhelmingly USA) and who are somewhat internet savvy?" I'll refer to that group of MSC passengers as the US group.

 

I'm not sure we can say those who opt to write a review have an axe (or ax) to grind compared to those who don't write reviews, but in any case the non-MSC reviewers would have to be presumed to carry the same ax as the MSC reviewers so that would be a neutral factor affecting the comparative ratings between MSC and all other lines.

 

If you can concede that the CC Cruisers Choice poll does represent a sufficiently large random sampling of the US group, then isn't the result of the CC poll relevant for the entire US group readership? And, after all, it is that US group who I believe are the vast majority of those reading this web site and for whom the CC cruiser's Choice poll results would definitely have relevance in selecting which cruise line to buy.

 

I would say it is more of trying to understand the personal point of view of the reviewer before inferring anything about the reviewed. I have wasted years on Tripadvisor interpreting millions of ignorant comments. "the dross'. Every now and then there is a piece of information that has the ring of truth about it - and the reviewer and I may have totally different viewpoints on it. Reliable information is hard to come by in the information age.

As indicated above, I agree that the personal pov of the reviewer will skew the results of a poll about cruise lines if the poll participants are not randomly selected. And I agree that the poll participants in the CC Cruisers' Choice poll are not randomly selected...except as concerns the US group. For that US group the poll results are meaningful if the number of participants allows such a conclusion within a reasonable margin of error. The total number of MSC reviews submitted is 1387. Is that statisitically significant? If so, all who could be included in the US group should think twice about buying an MSC cruise because the poll does, in fact, say something to them about the cruise line. It says that MSC finishes last (is rated lowest) by a very large margin in almost all categories including overall, food, and service.

[Skipper Tim]

Skip, would you concede that while the CC Cruisers' Choice poll results may not be based upon a perfectly random sampling of MSC cruisers (principally because Europeans don't participate in the poll in proportion to their number of total MSC cruisers), it is based upon a sufficiently large random sampling of those who, to paraphrase you, are "native English speakers, live in an English speaking part of the world (overwhelmingly USA) and who are somewhat internet savvy?" I'll refer to that group of MSC passengers as the US group.

 

I'm not sure we can say those who opt to write a review have an axe (or ax) to grind compared to those who don't write reviews, but in any case the non-MSC reviewers would have to be presumed to carry the same ax as the MSC reviewers so that would be a neutral factor affecting the comparative ratings between MSC and all other lines.

 

If you can concede that the CC Cruisers Choice poll does represent a sufficiently large random sampling of the US group, then isn't the result of the CC poll relevant for the entire US group readership? And, after all, it is that US group who I believe are the vast majority of those reading this web site and for whom the CC cruiser's Choice poll results would definitely have relevance in selecting which cruise line to buy.

 

 

As indicated above, I agree that the personal pov of the reviewer will skew the results of a poll about cruise lines if the poll participants are not randomly selected. And I agree that the poll participants in the CC Cruisers' Choice poll are not randomly selected...except as concerns the US group. For that US group the poll results are meaningful if the number of participants allows such a conclusion within a reasonable margin of error. The total number of MSC reviews submitted is 1387. Is that statisitically significant? If so, all who could be included in the US group should think twice about buying an MSC cruise because the poll does, in fact, say something to them about the cruise line. It says that MSC finishes last (is rated lowest) by a very large margin in almost all categories including overall, food, and service.

 

pmacher61, a random selection has to be random. The sample size means nothing if it is not a representative sample. By far the easiest way of getting a representative sample is to choose at random which means getting the list of all MSC guests, selecting using a linear random distribution and pursuing those chosen relentlessly, to the grave if necessary, as any evasion may be systematic and therefore skew the results.

 

As I have already explained, one guest chosen at random would give a more representative opinion than 10,000 volunteers. Two chosen at random would be good, 300 or so and you could be very confident of the accuracy of the results.

 

No matter how many reviews and ratings there are on CC, they are statistically meaningless because they are self-selected. That is not a cop-out it is mathematics. The only conclusions to be drawn are things like the reasons why people feel the need to review, cultural homogeneities etc. - but absolutely nothing to do with the thing they are reviewing. And these are the conclusions, just with common sense, that we have been drawing - that MSC is poorly rated because it is non-American, does things in a non-American way and a large mass of American cruise guests are culturally ill-equipped to leave the U.S..

 

The reviews are fascinating but in no way reflect upon the cruise line. "I don't like marmite". Does that mean marmite is bad? No, it means there is something about me that pre-disposes my dislike of marmite.

 

I recommend an elementary course in classical statistics.

[All aboard??]

I don't like Marmite either.......Vegemite is also quite bad

[papcx]

I don't like marmite either. Perhaps there's a link between disliking marmite and enjoying the MSC experience.

 

We should start a study ;)

[Skipper Tim]

I don't like marmite either. Perhaps there's a link between disliking marmite and enjoying the MSC experience.

 

We should start a study ;)

 

I was being hypothetical. I had marmite for breakfast today so I am afraid the association is not strong one on current evidence.

 

I actually had reduced sugar and salt baked beans on a slice of whole grain bread, toasted, with butter and marmite, then an egg dry-fried on both sides on top. What is my favourite cruiseline?

[sidari]

Tim ... That almost sounded ok until you said marmite .... :eek:

[The_Big_M]

As I have already explained, one guest chosen at random would give a more representative opinion than 10,000 volunteers.

 

Well, claimed, not explained... :-)

[Andy]

Hi Everyone,

 

As this thread has gone "Off-Topic", resulting in a number of deleted posts, it's now closed. Thanks for your understanding.