No Fourth Quantum Ship?

[tahqa]

As of yesterday's earnings call Royal has opted not to exercise the option for a fourth Quantum class ship. I'm guessing that they can change their minds down the road (as they did with Oasis 3) if the ships prove to be wildly popular.

 

CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AND CAPACITY GUIDANCE

Based upon current ship orders, projected capital expenditures for 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 are $1.3 billion,$1.3 billion, $2.1 billion and $0.3 billion, respectively.

"We remain committed to improving our shareholder returns, returning to an investment grade credit and maintaining moderate growth," said Fain. "We think that the ships we have on order for our wholly-owned brands will serve us well and we do not anticipate an additional newbuild for delivery in 2017."

Capacity increases for 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 are expected to be 1.7%, 6.9%, 6.7% and 4.1%, respectively. These figures do not include potential ship sales or additions. In the fourth quarter of 2014, the Royal Caribbean International brand takes delivery of the first of three Quantum class vessels. This is the first new ship delivery for the brand since 2010.

 

http://www.telegraphindia.com/pressrelease/prnw/en52666.html

Edited January 28, 2014 by tahqa

[sparkx]

I think they'll focus on a fourth Oasis (with Quantum enhancements) in lieu of a fourth Quantum Class

 

 

Sent using the Cruise Critic forums app

[Tyron]

I think they'll focus on a fourth Oasis (with Quantum enhancements) in lieu of a fourth Quantum Class

 

 

Sent using the Cruise Critic forums app

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they have a new build on the drawing boards.

:cool:

[sparkx]

I wouldn't be surprised if they have a new build on the drawing boards.

 

:cool:

 

 

True!

 

 

Sent using the Cruise Critic forums app

[tahqa]

I wouldn't be surprised if they have a new build on the drawing boards.

:cool:

 

They do have to look into the next decade. By the 2020's all of the medium and small sized ships will be approaching (or in) their second (or third) decade or have been retired. I would be greatly surprised if the next new design wasn't < 100,000 grt.

[orville99]

They do have to look into the next decade. By the 2020's all of the medium and small sized ships will be approaching (or in) their second (or third) decade or have been retired. I would be greatly surprised if the next new design wasn't < 100,000 grt.

 

 

Or something slightly less in height than a Radiance Class, slightly shorter in length than a Quantum class and slightly narrower than an Oasis class. You could still theoretically get in the neighborhood of 130,000-140,000 grt to increase passenger capacity and still have ships that would fit most places where the Voyager and up classes can't.:)

[tahqa]

Or something slightly less in height than a Radiance Class, slightly shorter in length than a Quantum class and slightly narrower than an Oasis class. You could still theoretically get in the neighborhood of 130,000-140,000 grt to increase passenger capacity and still have ships that would fit most places where the Voyager and up classes can't.:)

 

That certainly helps, but I think that there are still some itineraries that are more suited to a < 100,000 grt vessel. Alaska and some Norwegian itineraries come to mind. There is also a certain elegance that the Radiance class has that the big boys don't (my favorite ships are Allure and Freedom so I'm not biased to Radiance :)).

[Tyron]

That certainly helps, but I think that there are still some itineraries that are more suited to a < 100,000 grt vessel. Alaska and some Norwegian itineraries come to mind. There is also a certain elegance that the Radiance class has that the big boys don't (my favorite ships are Allure and Freedom so I'm not biased to Radiance :)).

 

I think the trend is building 100,000 grt ships. Most cruise lines already have new builds in this range (i.e., Aida, Holland America, Celebrity, Princess, NCL, CCL & of course RCI).

 

I think the trend of building 100,000+ grt ships is the foreseeable future. Time will tell. :cool::)

[DEIx15x8]

I was doing the math the other week and Royal Caribbean has about as much capacity on order right now as they had in their fleet in 2000. They are certainly growing at a rapid pace and as new ships get larger they are going to have to be spaced out more to maintain high enough demand. The Quantum class is a very closed in class so I can understand not needing many. Maybe down the line we'll get a modified version with more open deck space for warmer weather or a slightly larger version. One of the things I've been hearing a lot about lately since I've been sailing from Baltimore is the height issues. It doesn't sound like width or length are so maybe we'll see some shorter ships. The reason ships are going higher is to fit more balconies but the Oasis has shown you could do the same with more width. Perhaps an 1,100 foot long 12 deck ship with a central park in the middle to add more balconies. That could easily be 130,000 GT.

[orville99]

That certainly helps, but I think that there are still some itineraries that are more suited to a < 100,000 grt vessel. Alaska and some Norwegian itineraries come to mind. There is also a certain elegance that the Radiance class has that the big boys don't (my favorite ships are Allure and Freedom so I'm not biased to Radiance :)).

 

 

Don't disagree, but IMO there's been a subtle, but consistent shift towards utility and capacity (function over form and style) in the RCL brand. The parent company seems to be elevating the Radiance "feel" into their premium Celebrity brand. I doubt we will ever see a Radiance experience (style and form over function) in the RCL fleet again.:(

[tahqa]

Don't disagree, but IMO there's been a subtle, but consistent shift towards utility and capacity (function over form and style) in the RCL brand. The parent company seems to be elevating the Radiance "feel" into their premium Celebrity brand. I doubt we will ever see a Radiance experience (style and form over function) in the RCL fleet again.:(

 

Unfortunately true... especially if there really are still people in Royal's home office that consider the Radiance project to be a failure.

 

http://www.royalcaribbean.com/connect/blog/why-project-radiance-didnt-turn-out-as-planned/

Edited January 28, 2014 by tahqa

[pkexton]

I really don't want to know about a possible 4th Quantum ship - I want to know about what is on the 1st one beforehand:D.

 

Pat

[Tyron]

I really don't want to know about a possible 4th Quantum ship - I want to know about what is on the 1st one beforehand:D.

 

Pat

 

LOL! Right :D:cool:

[DEIx15x8]

Unfortunately true... especially if there really are still people in Royal's home office that consider the Radiance project to be a failure.

 

http://www.royalcaribbean.com/connect/blog/why-project-radiance-didnt-turn-out-as-planned/

 

It doesn't seem like that is actually talking about the ships being failures. The Radiance class was Project Vantage and while I have never experienced one everyone seems to love them and I personally think they are some of the best looking ships afloat. Project Radiance on the other hand seems to have been a project around rethinking the operational side of the ships that went along with the launch of the Radiance of the Seas. That could have been a complete and utter failure and almost entirely scrapped and retuned within 6 months so no one may actually know how big of a failure it really was.

[Dave85]

It doesn't seem like that is actually talking about the ships being failures. The Radiance class was Project Vantage and while I have never experienced one everyone seems to love them and I personally think they are some of the best looking ships afloat. Project Radiance on the other hand seems to have been a project around rethinking the operational side of the ships that went along with the launch of the Radiance of the Seas. That could have been a complete and utter failure and almost entirely scrapped and retuned within 6 months so no one may actually know how big of a failure it really was.

 

That was my impression too. I didn't take away that they thought the hardware was a failure, simply the way they rethought staffing / management / organization and the like.

[G85 SS]

Unfortunately true... especially if there really are still people in Royal's home office that consider the Radiance project to be a failure.

 

http://www.royalcaribbean.com/connect/blog/why-project-radiance-didnt-turn-out-as-planned/

 

If you ask people who are still at the company about Project Radiance, most will still say it was a failure. That is how it is recorded in popular history and based on the events of the day it was a failure. But we stuck with the concept and when we look at our now 60,000 berth fleet and some of the highest guest satisfaction scores we have attained, we see the fingerprints of Project Radiance on our success.

 

Just me, but I don't think Adam considers the ships themselves a failure. The article seemed to point towards ideas they implemented within Project Radiance itself as being a failure and not the ship itself. Things such as hiring a bunch of inexperienced crew members to launch a new ship because they felt it would be easier to mold new minds so to speak. Things like that is what was termed a "failure" in his mind. At least that is how I understood that blog.

 

But the fact that they consistently see the "fingerprints" of Project Radiance coming through on the guest satisfaction surveys means that over time it turned into a success, though it got off on the wrong foot. Not every business decision made is a sound one. He expressed that. But I do think he implies in that blog that the Radiance vessels are a staple of success within Royal Caribbean.

 

I could only hope they build a new class of ship that mirrors Radiance in the future when those ships are looking to retire from the fleet. Ocean views throughout, an absolutely gorgeous Solarium, outdoor seating for WindJammer, a beautiful Centrum and a magnificant dining room with views outside throughout. All of those things, and more, I experienced first hand on board Brilliance of the Seas in December. And Brilliance of the Seas has taken the top spot for most favorite cruise and favorite cruise ship.

 

That class offers everything I want from a cruise ship. And then some. Ships like Oasis, as groundbreaking as they are, don't offer the serenity and intimacy I was able to receive from Brilliance. Not by any stretch of the imagination. And that, is why I hope Royal Caribbean goes back to the drawing board in the future for something similar. And I don't believe I am the only one out of this million person community who feels that way and the millions of others not on here.

Edited January 29, 2014 by G85 SS

[UNV-IT!!!]

I have a feeling the 4th quantum will come. It's just not being ordered at this point.

[Irene7]

They do have to look into the next decade. By the 2020's all of the medium and small sized ships will be approaching (or in) their second (or third) decade or have been retired. I would be greatly surprised if the next new design wasn't < 100,000 grt.

 

Good point. There are a lot of people that perfer the smaller ships and RCCL has to please them as well.

[DEIx15x8]

Good point. There are a lot of people that perfer the smaller ships and RCCL has to please them as well.

 

The same thing could have been said about the 30,000 GT ships when the mega 70,000 GT ships were taking over. Newer small lines have since popped up to please the people looking for a more intimate experience and the mass market lines keep going bigger to offer more and better position themselves to earn a profit.

[kruzerci]

I think the trend is building 100,000 grt ships. Most cruise lines already have new builds in this range (i.e., Aida, Holland America, Celebrity, Princess, NCL, CCL & of course RCI).

 

I think the trend of building 100,000+ grt ships is the foreseeable future. Time will tell. :cool::)

 

Agreed.

[cruiserdudebobby8]

for all we know they can be secertly working on a new class of ships!

[DEIx15x8]

for all we know they can be secertly working on a new class of ships!

 

History says they should be, but if they are it'll likely be another small class and not based on history.

 

1988: Sovereign of the Seas - 73,192 GT

-Vision Class - 69,130-78,340 GT

1999: Voyager of the Seas - 137,276 GT (88% Gain)

-Radiance Class - 90,090 GT

2009: Oasis of the Seas - 225,282 GT (64% Gain)

-Quantum Class - 167,800 GT

2019: ??? - 337,923+ GT (50% Gain)

 

We've been getting a new world's largest ship about every decade with a "smaller" class (though vision is about on par, it was not a record breaker at the time) in between.

 

History also says that every "mega" ship will be introduced with comments like, "they'll never go bigger than that" and "It'll never be able to sail outside of Florida". All of which always seems to be proven wrong and a new ship has always managed to come along that towered over the previous. I don't think we will be ready by 2019 though, maybe 2024?.

 

If you go back farther you can expand it too:

 

~1970 - 1971: Song of Norway - 18,416 GT

~1980 - 1982: Song of America - 37,584 GT (104% Gain)

~1990 - 1988: Sovereign of the Seas - 73,192 GT (95% Gain)

-Vision Class - 69,130-78,340 GT

~2000 - 1999: Voyager of the Seas - 137,276 GT (88% Gain)

-Radiance Class - 90,090 GT

~2010 - 2009: Oasis of the Seas - 225,282 GT (64% Gain)

-Quantum Class - 167,800 GT

~2020 - 2019: ??? - 337,923+ GT (50% Gain)

 

So the jumps are slowly decreasing but Royal Caribbean has always been making a major leap every decade. If we don't see one announced in the next few years it'll be the first time they don't.

Edited February 7, 2014 by DEIx15x8

[hitaway4]

You're forgetting the Freedom Class. 2006 160,000 tons

[DEIx15x8]

You're forgetting the Freedom Class. 2006 160,000 tons

 

Those were more of an extended version of the Voyager class than a new design, similar to how the Reflection is to the Celebrity Solstice class (though they don't truly define them as different). It was even project ultra-voyager.