Question For Casino Blackjack Players

[pokerpro5]

Hi everyone.

 

I am a professional gambler, and I am seeing a LOT of misinformation in this thread.

 

Let me clear a few things up:

 

1) Unless you are playing at the $25 minimum tables, your odds at blackjack onboard are TERRIBLE. This is because they are reducing your blackjack payout to 6:5. This may not seem like a big deal, but it's TERRIBLE. How terrible? The $25 minimum game has a house edge of 0.74% per hand. The other games (6:5) have a house edge of 2.13% per hand. Therefore, you will lose almost three times as quickly at the game paying 6:5 on blackjack. Ouch.

 

2) If you still insist upon playing, never deviate from basic strategy or you will cost yourself more money. A lot of people say thing like, "I try basic strategy and I lose, and yet when I go with my gut feeling, I win!" That's garbage. You are either having atypical luck or are only remembering the times basic strategy hurts you. In both the long run and the short run, deviating from basic strategy is a killer.

 

3) NCL machines have continuous shuffling decks. You cannot count cards on those. Even if they weren't continuous shufflers, counting cards wouldn't be enough to overcome the casino edge of 2.13% on the 6:5 game.

 

4) Other players' actions have ZERO effect on you. Yes, you may win or lose a specific hand based upon another player hitting or standing, but in the long run (even the short-long-run) it will even out. Again, you will remember much more when a player "costs" you money by his "wrong" action than when he saves/makes you money. Human nature sadly remembers the bad more than the good in situations like these.

 

5) There is absolutely no way you can exercise "betting systems" or any other strategy to beat the blackjack game onboard. If you win, you got super lucky, and should feel fortunate. You will lose most of the time at these terrible odds.

 

6) The blackjack tournament typically rakes more than 50% for the house. For example, on the cruise I went on in December, they took in $1080 in buyins, and paid out a single $500 prize. (Sadly, I made the final table of 6 players, and was leading going into the final hand, but did not win.) I have a really good strategy to beat these things, but at such a horrendous rake of 50%+, even my strategy would not be profitable in the long run. Therefore, I will never play it again. (I didn't realize the rake until after I started playing.)

 

 

Unless you REALLY enjoy gambling on board, I would suggest curtailing your gambling and sticking to land based casinos, where the odds are much better for both blackjack and the machines.

 

I will be glad to answer any other questions in this thread regarding gambling.

[pokerpro5]

If you really want to "go with your gut", do it in one of these spots, where it is almost break-even whether to hit or stand (that is, it almost doesn't matter mathematically which of the two you choose to do):

 

1) Hard 16 versus the dealer's 10

 

2) Hard 12 versus the dealer's 4

 

3) Hard 13 versus the dealer's 2

 

These spots are so close that you can make your "gut decisions" and not really cost yourself money. Keep in mind that all three of these aren't good spots to be in (that is, you will lose a lot more than you win), but your proper action at that point is about 50-50 between hit and stand.

[skeeter195]

Pokerpro5 has made good points here. Sticking to basic strategy and a good money management strategy and there is no difference between a land based casino and a ship when playing $25 and up.

 

The only thing I would disagree with is that it absolutely matters if the player in front of you hits when they should have stayed or vice versa. Example, If you have an 11 against a dealer 5 and the player before you hits and gets a king, then he taken not "your king", but reduced the number of 10's that are left in the shoe thus reducing your percentage of getting a ten on the next card. Numbers don't lie. It may be a small number, but a number is a number and in Blacjack any number in your favor makes a difference.

[johnql]

Hi everyone.

 

I am a professional gambler, and I am seeing a LOT of misinformation in this thread.

 

Let me clear a few things up:

 

1) Unless you are playing at the $25 minimum tables, your odds at blackjack onboard are TERRIBLE. This is because they are reducing your blackjack payout to 6:5. This may not seem like a big deal, but it's TERRIBLE. How terrible? The $25 minimum game has a house edge of 0.74% per hand. The other games (6:5) have a house edge of 2.13% per hand. Therefore, you will lose almost three times as quickly at the game paying 6:5 on blackjack. Ouch.

 

2) If you still insist upon playing, never deviate from basic strategy or you will cost yourself more money. A lot of people say thing like, "I try basic strategy and I lose, and yet when I go with my gut feeling, I win!" That's garbage. You are either having atypical luck or are only remembering the times basic strategy hurts you. In both the long run and the short run, deviating from basic strategy is a killer.

 

3) NCL machines have continuous shuffling decks. You cannot count cards on those. Even if they weren't continuous shufflers, counting cards wouldn't be enough to overcome the casino edge of 2.13% on the 6:5 game.

 

4) Other players' actions have ZERO effect on you. Yes, you may win or lose a specific hand based upon another player hitting or standing, but in the long run (even the short-long-run) it will even out. Again, you will remember much more when a player "costs" you money by his "wrong" action than when he saves/makes you money. Human nature sadly remembers the bad more than the good in situations like these.

 

5) There is absolutely no way you can exercise "betting systems" or any other strategy to beat the blackjack game onboard. If you win, you got super lucky, and should feel fortunate. You will lose most of the time at these terrible odds.

 

6) The blackjack tournament typically rakes more than 50% for the house. For example, on the cruise I went on in December, they took in $1080 in buyins, and paid out a single $500 prize. (Sadly, I made the final table of 6 players, and was leading going into the final hand, but did not win.) I have a really good strategy to beat these things, but at such a horrendous rake of 50%+, even my strategy would not be profitable in the long run. Therefore, I will never play it again. (I didn't realize the rake until after I started playing.)

 

 

Unless you REALLY enjoy gambling on board, I would suggest curtailing your gambling and sticking to land based casinos, where the odds are much better for both blackjack and the machines.

 

I will be glad to answer any other questions in this thread regarding gambling.

Great post! Thanks for the clarifications.

[johnql]

This may not be relevant for everyone since I've only seen this on the Getaway. I am hoping that NCL does away with this or, at the very least, doesn't introduce it fleet-wide.

 

On my recent Getaway sailing, I noticed that the $5 BJ table had now been bumped up to a $6 minimum. Yes, $6. I had to do a double-take on that one since I had never seen a $6 minimum anywhere.

 

At the $6 table, the BJ payout is only 6:5 (not 3:2, as it should be). So, here's the upshot of raising the minimum from $5 to $6. If you're betting only the minimum ($6) and get a 21, your payout (6:5) should be $7.20 but since the casino isn't going to break out a roll of dimes, they round it off (downwards) to $7. Now, I realize that 20¢ is really not that big a deal, but come on - the house has already shaved the odds down from 3:2 to 6:5. Now, they're going to cheat the player of the 20¢, too?

 

In order to get the full 6:5 payout, you need to play at least $10 ($12 payout). It appears that the $6 minimum is a sneaky way to introduce what appears to be a low-limit table but is really a $10 minimum table. It's a win-win for the casino - either you play the $6 minimum and get doubly penalized for a 21 (i.e., 6:5 payout but also losing the 20¢) or you choose to play $10+. Put another way, if you play the $6 minimum, the casino is actually reducing the BJ payout to 7:6 (ugh!).

 

Bottom line: I would avoid the Getaway's new $6 min tables at all costs.

[pokerpro5]

Pokerpro5 has made good points here. Sticking to basic strategy and a good money management strategy and there is no difference between a land based casino and a ship when playing $25 and up.

 

The only thing I would disagree with is that it absolutely matters if the player in front of you hits when they should have stayed or vice versa. Example, If you have an 11 against a dealer 5 and the player before you hits and gets a king, then he taken not "your king", but reduced the number of 10's that are left in the shoe thus reducing your percentage of getting a ten on the next card. Numbers don't lie. It may be a small number, but a number is a number and in Blacjack any number in your favor makes a difference.

 

 

Actually, last I checked, there is a difference even at $25 and up. I heard they only let you double 9/10/11 on NCL, while land-based lets you typically double on any two cards. I haven't verified this, but that's what I was told by a peer who played on NCL in 2012.

 

Regarding it mattering what the player in front of you does, your example still doesn't make a difference in the long run. The reason is that you don't know what card the player will "wrongly" take from you. Maybe he will take your coveted 10, but maybe he will take a 2 and you will get the next card which is a 10, in which case you have benefited. You are correct that seeing an extra ten come out can affect your odds and decisions, but that's a card counting matter and not a basic strategy matter. Still, it is almost impossible for a single ten before you act making the difference between doubling and hitting an 11.

[accmiller]

Hi everyone.

 

I am a professional gambler, and I am seeing a LOT of misinformation in this thread.

 

Let me clear a few things up:

 

1) Unless you are playing at the $25 minimum tables, your odds at blackjack onboard are TERRIBLE. This is because they are reducing your blackjack payout to 6:5. This may not seem like a big deal, but it's TERRIBLE. How terrible? The $25 minimum game has a house edge of 0.74% per hand. The other games (6:5) have a house edge of 2.13% per hand. Therefore, you will lose almost three times as quickly at the game paying 6:5 on blackjack. Ouch.

 

2) If you still insist upon playing, never deviate from basic strategy or you will cost yourself more money. A lot of people say thing like, "I try basic strategy and I lose, and yet when I go with my gut feeling, I win!" That's garbage. You are either having atypical luck or are only remembering the times basic strategy hurts you. In both the long run and the short run, deviating from basic strategy is a killer.

 

3) NCL machines have continuous shuffling decks. You cannot count cards on those. Even if they weren't continuous shufflers, counting cards wouldn't be enough to overcome the casino edge of 2.13% on the 6:5 game.

 

4) Other players' actions have ZERO effect on you. Yes, you may win or lose a specific hand based upon another player hitting or standing, but in the long run (even the short-long-run) it will even out. Again, you will remember much more when a player "costs" you money by his "wrong" action than when he saves/makes you money. Human nature sadly remembers the bad more than the good in situations like these.

 

5) There is absolutely no way you can exercise "betting systems" or any other strategy to beat the blackjack game onboard. If you win, you got super lucky, and should feel fortunate. You will lose most of the time at these terrible odds.

 

6) The blackjack tournament typically rakes more than 50% for the house. For example, on the cruise I went on in December, they took in $1080 in buyins, and paid out a single $500 prize. (Sadly, I made the final table of 6 players, and was leading going into the final hand, but did not win.) I have a really good strategy to beat these things, but at such a horrendous rake of 50%+, even my strategy would not be profitable in the long run. Therefore, I will never play it again. (I didn't realize the rake until after I started playing.)

 

 

Unless you REALLY enjoy gambling on board, I would suggest curtailing your gambling and sticking to land based casinos, where the odds are much better for both blackjack and the machines.

 

I will be glad to answer any other questions in this thread regarding gambling.

 

Did you notice the rake on the poker table? I guess I wasn't paying attention and then won a pretty large pot and almost cried when I saw how much she was pulling out. Nobody wins in the ship casino except the ship.

[pokerpro5]

Did you notice the rake on the poker table? I guess I wasn't paying attention and then won a pretty large pot and almost cried when I saw how much she was pulling out. Nobody wins in the ship casino except the ship.

 

Yes, I did. I really wanted to play because cruise ship poker players are notoriously bad, and I really wanted to make some money!

 

However, I saw a horrendous rake, and couldn't bring myself to sit. I think it was 10% up to $25. If it wasn't that, it was something very close to that. Just something really, really awful to where I wouldn't sit no matter how soft the competition was.

[FireEater]

I'm glad I brought this subject up. it has been very informative.

 

I did forget to ask if NCL has 3:2 vs 6:5 on the tables. All the pros have said walk away when it is the 6:5 ratio. I would have thought they would make it more inviting by making it 3:2, but boy, am I wrong.

 

O well, with all that has been said, I will just watch a little and keep my money in my pocket. I will watch and play some ones hand in my mind to see how much I will lose/win if I had played, and believe me, I would lose with all this insight on this subject. LOL

[Delawarealan]

The cruises I have been on had a 3:2 blackjack payout on the $10 tables and higher. The $5 (or $6) tables had the 6:5 payout.

 

I agree with pokerpro5 that you should just stick to your strategy and not think you are smarter than the odds. I don't play hunches on what cards are coming next. I also play the dealer's game -- I pull on any hand under 17 if the dealer has a 7 or higher showing. My take on it is that the odds are with the house so I should be playing by their rules.

 

Also, I agree with the poster who said that your money is made on splits and doubles. I don't believe in throwing money on the table randomly is good, but if I think I am dealt a good set of cards I will double or split as appropriate to take advantage of that.

 

Finally (I hear a collective sigh of relief from the crowd!), I also agree with the person who said to aim for an amount you want to win and then stop. I usually go to a $10 table with $100 (and sometimes a bit of reserve in my pocket), but if I win $100 I cash in and hang around. I just enjoy the game. Good luck to all!

 

Delawarealan

[Zimomiller]

You think the rake is bad on BJ tourneys, try 69-72% on BINGO on NCL.

[Froggitt]

4) Other players' actions have ZERO effect on you.

I have had the beginnings of a system in my thoughts for a few years now, but never had the time to fully work it through. Would appreciate your thoughts pokerpro.

 

In short, it involves taking the LAST seat ie the one before the dealer. You can see your cards, you can see dealers card. The system revolves around "this next card, would I rather have it or would I rather the dealer had it". I am sure the last player can obtain an advantage in this way.

 

e.g. say dealer has 9, and I have 13, work out for each card whether it benefits me to take it or to give it the dealer.

[$hip$hape]

I have had the beginnings of a system in my thoughts for a few years now, but never had the time to fully work it through. Would appreciate your thoughts pokerpro.

 

In short, it involves taking the LAST seat ie the one before the dealer. You can see your cards, you can see dealers card. The system revolves around "this next card, would I rather have it or would I rather the dealer had it". I am sure the last player can obtain an advantage in this way.

 

e.g. say dealer has 9, and I have 13, work out for each card whether it benefits me to take it or to give it the dealer.

The Last Seat, "Third Base", has no advantage. In fact, make the wrong decision and other players may blame you for the dealers winning hand.

Basic Strategy works out benefits/odds.

We play for the fun of gambling. Like I said before, we play on a $5.00 table for about an hour or less if, our initial $100.00 buy-in is gone.

We don't expect to win, but even with the terrible odds, if played correctly, we still find it to be a break even game.

Luck. Years ago, in Las Vegas, I lost 10 hands in a row(played correctly) and told the dealer, her's was the worst table I have ever seen.

She said, "Well evidently, you have not been around too long".

Edited May 6, 2014 by $hip$hape

[kylenyc]

The Last Seat, "Third Base", has no advantage. In fact, make the wrong decision and other players may blame you for the dealers winning hand.

Basic Strategy works out benefits/odds.

We play for the fun of gambling. Like I said before, we play on a $5.00 table for about an hour or less if, our initial $100.00 buy-in is gone.

We don't expect to win, but even with the terrible odds, if played correctly, we still find it to be a break even game.

Luck. Years ago, in Las Vegas, I lost 10 hands in a row(played correctly) and told the dealer, her's was the worst table I have ever seen.

She said, "Well evidently, you have not been around too long".

Ben plays for fun too and loves the hot seat. He always polls the other players when he gets a tricky hand so as not to get everyone angry. :p

 

Edited May 6, 2014 by kylenyc

[pokerpro5]

I have had the beginnings of a system in my thoughts for a few years now, but never had the time to fully work it through. Would appreciate your thoughts pokerpro.

 

In short, it involves taking the LAST seat ie the one before the dealer. You can see your cards, you can see dealers card. The system revolves around "this next card, would I rather have it or would I rather the dealer had it". I am sure the last player can obtain an advantage in this way.

 

e.g. say dealer has 9, and I have 13, work out for each card whether it benefits me to take it or to give it the dealer.

 

What you are proposing is essentially card counting. With card counting, you are basically keeping track if the remaining deck is heavy with low cards (2-6), high cards (10/J/Q/K/A), or around even. You then adjust your strategy and betting (mostly the betting) based upon that, where you place the highest bets when there are a disproportionate number of high cards left in the deck, as that's the most advantageous time for the player.

 

If you're in the last-to-act seat and not card counting, there is zero advantage to acting last.

 

However, if you are card counting, there is a small advantage to that last seat, as you will have seen more cards by that point, and will have a slightly better idea of the makeup of the deck.

 

Don't bother card counting on NCL, because they use continuous shufflers, making counting impossible.

Edited May 6, 2014 by pokerpro5

[pokerpro5]

Ben plays for fun too and loves the hot seat. He always polls the other players when he gets a tricky hand so as not to get everyone angry. :p

 

 

This picture actually raises another point I want to make here.

 

DO NOT ever place those "side bets" offered on blackjack tables ("Wheel of Madness" in the above pic), as the odds are beyond terrible.

 

These side bets are the absolute definition of a sucker bet.

 

They can be temping because you can place something as low as $1 and sometimes win as much as $500-$1000. However, the odds are so badly skewed that the $500 you win is probably underpaying you by a factor of 10 or more (I'm not even kidding). That is, your odds of winning the $500 are so bad that you should be paid $5000 upon winning if the game were at breakeven odds. These games vary in how bad they are, but they are all absolutely awful for the player -- just some worse than others.

 

AVOID!

[johnql]

If you're in the last-to-act seat and not card counting, there is zero advantage to acting last.

I disagree. I always try to sit at third base because it gives me the most time to make a decision since the dealer has to play out all the hands in front of me. I admit that it's not a big advantage but being rushed to act quickly (especially at first base) can sometimes lead to a bad decision.

[kylenyc]

This picture actually raises another point I want to make here.

 

DO NOT ever place those "side bets" offered on blackjack tables ("Wheel of Madness" in the above pic), as the odds are beyond terrible.

 

These side bets are the absolute definition of a sucker bet.

 

They can be temping because you can place something as low as $1 and sometimes win as much as $500-$1000. However, the odds are so badly skewed that the $500 you win is probably underpaying you by a factor of 10 or more (I'm not even kidding). That is, your odds of winning the $500 are so bad that you should be paid $5000 upon winning if the game were at breakeven odds. These games vary in how bad they are, but they are all absolutely awful for the player -- just some worse than others.

 

AVOID!

 

I know... Odds of Black Jack are about 1 in 20. I observed the typical madness payout is between $10 and $20. So the house makes a few dollars every 20 hands. No big deal. And I did see some $30 to $50 payouts. It's lots of fun especially when all the players get into it. That's why it's the Wheeeeeel oooooooooof Maaaaaaadnesssssssss!!! I'm only 90% accurate player and still walked away even after playing all week. Where the house really did make out is on all the drinks I bought at the table :D

 

P.S. There's no way for you to say exactly what the odds are for the Wheel at any given time because the wheel is computerized.

 

Edited May 6, 2014 by kylenyc

[primo1]

Rule #1. Never play at a CSM

Rule #2. Always play basic strategy. No gut feelings.

Rule #3. BJ is a money management game. You MUST know when to back down on a bet and when to bet 8 times or so the min. You will never win big.

Rule #4. If you want the best odds of winning big, play the Dealer heads up, or with a few people that know what the hell they are doing. Casinos always want full tables because of this.

Rule #5. See rule #1.

[pokerpro5]

Oh, I remember this now.

 

This is actually a different story.

 

You are right that the wheel is computerized, and not random like the wheel you see on "Wheel of Fortune".

 

It is programmed to rarely pay out above $20, and to usually pay $15 or less.

 

I just went and read an analysis on the bet, and the conclusion was that the house had approximately a 4.75% edge on this bet.

 

That doesn't sound bad, until you realize that the terrible 6:5 blackjack game itself only has a 2.13% edge.

 

A 4.75% casino edge on any game (even video poker) is horrible.

 

The worst thing is that you're not even getting the excitement of winning big. If the wheel had terrible odds but still had the chance to return $1000, at least you could reason that you're getting the fun of anticipating possibly winning it. But here you get a lousy $50 in the best case scenario.

 

So this combines a lack of jackpot and high house edge, which is pretty much the worst of both worlds.

 

Typically, table games provide better odds but no jackpot (meaning you can't win huge in one hand if you only bet a small amount), and machines provide poor odds but the possibility of winning a jackpot. This gives you neither.

 

Terrible.

[kylenyc]

Oh, I remember this now.

 

This is actually a different story.

 

You are right that the wheel is computerized, and not random like the wheel you see on "Wheel of Fortune".

 

It is programmed to rarely pay out above $20, and to usually pay $15 or less.

 

I just went and read an analysis on the bet, and the conclusion was that the house had approximately a 4.75% edge on this bet.

 

That doesn't sound bad, until you realize that the terrible 6:5 blackjack game itself only has a 2.13% edge.

 

A 4.75% casino edge on any game (even video poker) is horrible.

 

The worst thing is that you're not even getting the excitement of winning big. If the wheel had terrible odds but still had the chance to return $1000, at least you could reason that you're getting the fun of anticipating possibly winning it. But here you get a lousy $50 in the best case scenario.

 

So this combines a lack of jackpot and high house edge, which is pretty much the worst of both worlds.

 

Typically, table games provide better odds but no jackpot (meaning you can't win huge in one hand if you only bet a small amount), and machines provide poor odds but the possibility of winning a jackpot. This gives you neither.

 

Terrible.

At the 3 o'clock position in the picture, there is a $500. It's backlit so difficult to see.

 

I reason, the odds of winning $500 are 1 in 10,000 hands if they raked $1 every 20 hands delt. :D

[FireEater]

Wonder what the house gets in those hand/eye coordination games where you push thru a plunger or something thru a hole to grab an iPad or iPhone or cash, or what ever they have hanging for a buck...

[mark290]

Rule #1. Never play at a CSM

Rule #2. Always play basic strategy. No gut feelings.

Rule #3. BJ is a money management game. You MUST know when to back down on a bet and when to bet 8 times or so the min. You will never win big.

Rule #4. If you want the best odds of winning big, play the Dealer heads up, or with a few people that know what the hell they are doing. Casinos always want full tables because of this.

Rule #5. See rule #1.

 

Rule #3 - Only if card counting and doing it correctly. Otherwise this is nonsense.

 

Rule #4 - This has no basis in fact. A bad player will help you as many times as hurt you. Casinos want full tables because the odds are in their favor and the more hands played per hour equals more money for the house.

 

Always astounds me how people state false information as fact especially about gambling. It's science not vodoo.

[kylenyc]

Wonder what the house gets in those hand/eye coordination games where you push thru a plunger or something thru a hole to grab an iPad or iPhone or cash, or what ever they have hanging for a buck...

HORRIBLE!!!!

I was a sucker for that one last cruise. It's a computerized game of chance NOT skill. You can only get it so close (most people can)... after that it's up to the casino programmed settings to pick you to win. It was a $20 exercise in frustration for me :o.

It's pretty popular if the machine is near the entrance as people walk in. Then there's lots of players who gather around and at least you can take turns and have fun.

Edited May 6, 2014 by kylenyc

[$hip$hape]

I disagree. I always try to sit at third base because it gives me the most time to make a decision since the dealer has to play out all the hands in front of me.

I admit that it's not a big advantage but being rushed to act quickly (especially at first base) can sometimes lead to a bad decision.

Hmmmm....

You only have two cards!?:eek:

Sorry:p