Tropical Storm IRENE

[HumanCookie]

 

WTNT34 KNHC 071444

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 12

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM AST SUN AUG 07 2005

 

...NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE CENTRAL

ATLANTIC...EARLIEST NINTH STORM ON RECORD...

 

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST OR ABOUT

1160 MILES...1865 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

 

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH

...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT

24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. IRENE REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND LITTLE

CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES

... 75 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...20.5 N... 45.5 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[piphigoddess]

Are all Florideans just as doomed on the sea as on the land?

 

Wasn't Charley, Frances and Jeanne enough for a lifetime?

 

The following is a picture of the road in front of my house the day after Charley. My car was hidden under an oak tree and completely totaled!

 

http://www.hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com/orlando_sentinal_hurricane_frances.JPG

 

*The link says Frances but it's the front page of the Orlando Sentinel the day after Charley.

 

It is an awful photo but you can that all of the power lines down the road were knocked down. It took two weeks for power crews to set them back up. You haven't seen anything unless you've seen a concrete piling bent over at a 45 degree angle because a tree branch is on the powerline it's supporting!

[karen_cpa]

We are leaving for Bermuda on Saturday. I guess if it stays on the northerly track, we'll be okay!

[IKE]

Hope You get to Bermuda. Have a great cruise!

[pd9845]

What's the update on this Storm???

 

My brother and his kids will be on the 8/12 sailing of the Voyager. They will be leaving from NJ and going 10 days to the Caribbean. My niece is DEATHLY afraid of the rain. Luckily, they have an inside cabin, but I'm afraid of how she'll react to rocking if they are going passed this storm...

 

We were on the outskirts of Frances last year and it was ROCKY & extremely Windy.

[VernRDH]

Well we are supposed to go to the Bahamas on SOS this weekend. Looks like we may have some rocky seas to deal with.:eek:

[AFT_LOVER]

down to a Tropical Depression with 30 mph winds. Georgia, S Carolina may get a thunderstorm out of her by next week.

 

Bermuda will be fine! No Bermucanada

[Funcouple]

Here's a professional update. These things change continuously. I am posting this info here on CC at 8:36AM EST

 

UPDATED: 11:30 pm EST, August 9, 2005

"IF IRENE SURVIVES"- THE CATCH-PHRASE OF THE WEEK

 

Ever since Irene left the coast of Africa as a tropical wave, it has underachieved. The cyclone has battled dry air, less than ideal water temps and even strong wind shear. Those battles are not over with yet. The NHC says that "if Irene survives" it could strengthen and now has a forecast of becoming a hurricane. This is quite a step up from being just a weak tropical depression now. But if Irene does indeed make it in to the area where conditions are more favorable, it really does have a good chance at some intensification.

 

The forecast track now aims Irene right at the Carolina coast in five days. How far west it travels before turning more north remains to be seen. Apparently the European model, called the ECMWF, has handled Irene well so far. It shows Irene being a threat to the Carolina coast for sure. The NHC looks at a lot of models though to aid in their forecasts and many factors have to be taken in to consideration. Irene will definitely be a forecast problem as we end the week. I will post much more on Irene tomorrow morning.

[doolange]

Yikes:eek: We are sailing on 8/12 right into the path....it seems. I hope the ship will take a detour or we will have a rocky ride (not that I am not used to this, last year we sailed around Alex and the swells were 12-15 feet).

 

 

Hopefully she will get disorganized and go northeast!!!

[rfische1]

News this noon said that the Carolinas to New England should be watching Irene. Oh boy, and I thought we were safe up here.

[Funcouple]

Here's the latest report. I'm now posting this report at 7:40PM EST. The report is from earlier this evening at 5:05PM EST:

 

****************************************

 

UPDATED: 5:05pm EST, August 10, 2005

IRENE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT AIMS STRAIGHT AT NORTH CAROLINA

 

The latest NHC forecast is quite ominous for folks in North Carolina. Right now, Irene is still a tropical depression. Hard to believe we might be dealing with a landfalling hurricane next week out of this. But the NHC is calling for Irene to reach 80mph as it plows in towards eastern North Carolina. This is the current forecast plot from the NHC and is subject to change. But it is beginning to look like the Carolinas will have to deal with Irene- and most likely North Carolina. Of course, if Irene is curving around the Bermuda High, then points north will have to be aware of future track changes as Irene could affect a lot of people along the Mid-Atlantic states. Stay tuned- this is getting more interesting all the time.

 

Here's the link to the website where this report came from. They have excellent tracking and wave action info. http://www.hurricanetrack.com/

[Mystiquee]

News this noon said that the Carolinas to New England should be watching Irene. Oh boy, and I thought we were safe up here.

Yike we're sailing in the Explorer on the 28th......X's fingers, toes and eyes, that will be spared any hurricane.

[Funcouple]

I'm posting this report at 11:13pm EST, August 10th -- it just came out.

 

******************************************

 

UPDATED: 10:45pm, August 10, 2005

HIT OR MISS? IT IS NOT A DONE DEAL BY ANY STRETCH.

 

Irene is now a tropical storm again- after a long struggle against some very hostile conditions. Those conditions are improving and Irene is still forecast to become a minimal hurricane in about four days. The NHC notes that intensity forecasting has a lot of uncertainty at the longer time periods- so Irene could be a lot stronger or a lot weaker. We'll have to wait and see.

 

The track is interesting in that several of the computer models have now shifted Irene to a more northerly course which would likely spare the Carolina coast from a direct hit. The NHC sees this and has shifted their forecast only slightly more to the north- still aiming the storm at North Carolina. The NHC indicates that it is possible for Irene to not make landfall and turn north and then away from the coast. But, they counter that with information suggesting a further west track and a hit somewhere in the Southeast. So- this one is not going to be easy- the only good news here is that we are not talking about a monster hurricane. Irene is small and would not have the same effects as say an Isabel- which was very large and spread out. Still, the forecast shows a hurricane aiming at the Carolina coast, so we need to pay attention and be ready to act if indeed we see some concrete evidence that Irene will make landfall. For now, we will just wait and see. Heard that one before?

[TVMet]

Irene could pose a risk to the US East Coast, too early to tell.

 

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 27

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM AST THU AUG 11 2005

 

...IRENE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...

 

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR ABOUT 605

MILES... 975 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

 

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH

...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT

24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IRENE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN

ORGANIZATION...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

24 HOURS.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES

... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

[Fury1995]

So I don't get it. Where is it going? Is it heading back "out" or heading for a more northern state?

[Fury1995]

I can see where it's heading now.......

[rfische1]

Wouldn't think I'd have to say it up here in coastal Northern New England, but I'm watching this one.

[Merion_Mom]

Wow, that's a "live link" you posted, Human Cookie - it's always current.

 

Thanks!

 

(I want a hurricane-lengthened cruise! ;))

 

Carol

[stillababe]

Wow, that's a "live link" you posted, Human Cookie - it's always current.

 

Thanks!

 

(I want a hurricane-lengthened cruise! ;))

 

Carol

 

Hmm.... Now, why do I have a feeling you are going to end up in Bermuda? You might want to pack a few extra things... like flip flops and sunscreen. You just never know....

 

In any event, I see that you are leaving soon! Have a great trip! :)

[Merion_Mom]

Thanks, quasi-neighbor! ;) Wouldn't it be HYSTERICAL if they had to re-route us away from Maine and Canada down to Bermuda?!?!?!?

 

Carol

[DisneyGirl92]

Wow, that's a "live link" you posted, Human Cookie - it's always current.

 

Thanks!

 

(I want a hurricane-lengthened cruise! ;))

 

Carol

 

You are too funny!!!! I was thinking and wishing the same thing. People will do anything to get an extra day out of it. lol;)

[Funcouple]

Here's my guess of possiblilities:

 

A) IF seas are too rocky on Sunday Sailing is delayed until seas are safe out of the Baltimore area.

 

B) Sail out on time, head north and circle north east around Bermuda and come in from the East of Bermuda.

 

Just an unsophisticated and humble opionion.

 

REVISION:

 

AFter looking at the tracking map, there's no way the ship will go north as the storm is going north. So, here's an updated guess:

 

A) Same as above

 

B) Sail out on time, or a little late, head WAY SOUTH and come in from the south east.

 

We shall have to wait and see how this storm goes now.

 

Does anyone know How the ships are adjusting as they are steaming north from the Carribbean today (Saturday) for Sunday docking in Baltimore and NY and NJ? Just curious if they are delayed?