Water levels on rhine

[Michael50]

Hi, we are booked on our first river cruise next October, after reading reviews here we are getting s bit concerned about the water levels. Since we are spending quite a bit of money on this trip I’m worried now and do not want to spend my week on a bus, any advice on what the future holds? I realize it’s hard to predict but I’m nervous. 

Thanks

[G.M.T.]

2 hours ago, Michael50 said:

Hi, we are booked on our first river cruise next October, after reading reviews here we are getting s bit concerned about the water levels. Since we are spending quite a bit of money on this trip I’m worried now and do not want to spend my week on a bus, any advice on what the future holds? I realize it’s hard to predict but I’m nervous. 

Thanks

Suggest you buy a crystal ball, so you can make your own predictions, don't know of anyone with a crystal ball on this forum.

 

 

PS. Just seen there is a software package called Crystal Ball:

 

Oracle Crystal Ball is the leading spreadsheet-based application for predictive modeling, forecasting, simulation, and optimization. It gives you unparalleled insight into the critical factors affecting risk. With Crystal Ball, you can make the right tactical decisions to reach your objectives .

[notamermaid]

Michael50,

Other than the certainty of seasonal low level in October - starting in September - noone knows and can predict what will be. The water experts do not use crystal balls, but 900 computer data values of statistics and current weather predictions to forecast what next week will bring. They get pretty close, but are not always right.

 

Climate experts will tell you that we will see the extremes more often and for a longer period, etc, etc. But next year, who knows, if we get a wet Summer there will be enough water. Last year on the Rhine, as far as I remember the level only got as low as Viking having ship swaps emminent that did not happen then. Perhaps one or two excepted that I missed.

In short, expect low water, for further risk assessment you need to turn to massive computer programs.

 

Oh, nearly forgot. What is your company and ship? You can start the risk assessment with both those factors and work from there. 

 

notamermaid

 

[Host Jazzbeau]

We need Der Almanach des alten Bauern ["The Old Farmer's Almanac," German version].  That would have the weather forecast for every day in 2019, divined by a secret age-old method.  Probably also have water levels for the rivers day by day, predicted by an old dowsing stick. 

[Michael50]

Ha! Yes, I totally get it, an old almanac would definitely help,,, I’m sorry if I sound a bit on the panicking side, but after reading reviews and the cost, the last thing I want to do is spend my week on a bus, my thoughts now are maybe transferring my deposit to a Viking ocean cruise... 

this us a once in s lifetime trip for us, so I’m a bit cautious 

thanks again 

[G.M.T.]

58 minutes ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

We need Der Almanach des alten Bauern ["The Old Farmer's Almanac," German version].  That would have the weather forecast for every day in 2019, divined by a secret age-old method.  Probably also have water levels for the rivers day by day, predicted by an old dowsing stick. 

You mean something like this:

 

[Host Jazzbeau]

1 hour ago, G.M.T. said:

You mean something like this:

 

That one looks pretty high-tech!

[Host Jazzbeau]

2 hours ago, Michael50 said:

Ha! Yes, I totally get it, an old almanac would definitely help,,, I’m sorry if I sound a bit on the panicking side, but after reading reviews and the cost, the last thing I want to do is spend my week on a bus, my thoughts now are maybe transferring my deposit to a Viking ocean cruise... 

this us a once in s lifetime trip for us, so I’m a bit cautious 

thanks again 

 

If you can do that, you have an option that some of the posters on this forum would be really happy to have!  And having recently done a Viking ocean cruise, I would say you will certainly enjoy that option.

[notamermaid]

13 hours ago, Michael50 said:

Ha! Yes, I totally get it, an old almanac would definitely help,,, I’m sorry if I sound a bit on the panicking side, but after reading reviews and the cost, the last thing I want to do is spend my week on a bus, my thoughts now are maybe transferring my deposit to a Viking ocean cruise... 

this us a once in s lifetime trip for us, so I’m a bit cautious 

thanks again 

Do not be sorry. It is one thing travelling far knowing you can return and the trip is financially "not crippling", but if the experience is supposed to run as smoothly as possible and you are worried about it not happening then it is a wise consideration of yours to perhaps shift it to an ocean cruise.

 

I hope you will be happy with any decision you take and that your holiday will be great.

 

notamermaid

 

[peregrino]

On 11/25/2018 at 2:38 AM, G.M.T. said:

It gives you unparalleled insight into the critical factors affecting risk. With Crystal Ball, you can make the right tactical decisions to reach your objectives .

 

Well G.M.T. now that there is a bit (a lot) of marketing oversell...!  Which no doubt is why you put it in?  As a spot of humour?

 

I reckon one has unparalleled insight, when one has lots of good data to populate the mathematical model.  And the data holds for the future one has in mind.

 

Without good data, it is guesses-in to guesses-out, or rubbish-in to rubbish-out, depending on how one likes to call it.  But hey, I really love the concept.  I do, I do!!!

 

If we populated the model with historical rainfall data and historical river levels, and put a probabilistic spread on the data based on historical maximums and minimums and their frequency...then we would be making the "right tactical decision" to take a Rhine cruise after the winter rains historically started!

 

Oh bugger!!!  

Edited November 28, 2018 by peregrino
In case the comment looked critical of GMT, which it wasn't meant to be.