Teddy - Atlantic - Sep 14

[PelicanBill]

Newly named Teddy is expected to be a major hurricane with conditions perfect for organizing and growing.  Not a threat for now, but heading in the general direction of Bermuda.

[rkacruiser]

Just what Bermuda needs.

[PelicanBill]

The good news is they are built well and weather this strength well too!

[PelicanBill]

So Teddy is predicted to be very strong, maintain a while, and pointed toward Bermuda. Let's hope it weakens.

[PelicanBill]

Starting to be concerned for Bermuda. Still plenty of time for things to change.

 

[PelicanBill]

Intensity model suggests category 2 in 6 days still.  Let's hope it's dropping then as it looks but this model is not very reliable 5+ days out.  I don't like how the official forecast is using Category 3 just a day before it could start impacting Bermuda.

 

[PelicanBill]

Yikes. Forecast to be category 4 in a day or two.... but fall back to category 2 before reaching Bermuda. Can only hope it is not a direct hit like Paulette was.  Hint of a turn there.

[rkacruiser]

On 9/14/2020 at 8:31 AM, PelicanBill said:

Newly named Teddy is expected to be a major hurricane with conditions perfect for organizing and growing.  Not a threat for now, but heading in the general direction of Bermuda.

 

I don't like what I am seeing as to its path.  If it doesn't take a sharp right turn out to sea, the New England States and Maritime Canada could be in for a "blow".  What is your opinion?

[PelicanBill]

There are some weird air current going on in the Atlantic right now.

 

Look what Paulette is doing:

 

Model tracks for Teddy do show a bend.  Perhaps the Maritimes are in danger but from what?  The conditions for strengthening are somewhat in question from what I read.  It took a break from getting stronger today.  Conditions are hard to read for a few days out.

 

[PelicanBill]

Forecast track now goes just east of Bermuda, which would luckily place Bermuda on the softer side of the storm.

The strength still puts it at category 3 just before arrival, dropping to category 2 on arrival.

 

That seems to me to be about the same at the Paulette experience. Hopefully no worse.

 

[Capt Guy]

In looking at the 700 hPa and 500 hPa steering winds and high pressure building over the east coast of the US over the next two or three days I tend to think the storm will pass to the east of Bermuda, perhaps by as much as 150 miles so they should be on the good side in terms of the winds. On that path I do not see it strengthening much over 80 kts. Not certain the effect of that on the storm surge however.

https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/index.php?category=ua&product=UA_Entire_hires&days=3&loop=1

[PelicanBill]

8pm tropical outlook update.  We have depression 22 now in the gulf. Luckily, some strong blocking to the north will make it recurve... and hopefully fade before affecting Mexico too much.

 

[PelicanBill]

6 hours ago, Capt Guy said:

In looking at the 700 hPa and 500 hPa steering winds and high pressure building over the east coast of the US over the next two or three days I tend to think the storm will pass to the east of Bermuda, perhaps by as much as 150 miles so they should be on the good side in terms of the winds. On that path I do not see it strengthening much over 80 kts. Not certain the effect of that on the storm surge however.

https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/index.php?category=ua&product=UA_Entire_hires&days=3&loop=1

 

I agree the high pressure has a good chance to keep pushing Teddy east.  The danger is the size and strength of Teddy needs a pretty strong push.  What I don't like is the Cat 3 or 4 status as it approaches Bermuda.. I want it to back down sooner to keep effects on the islands to Cat 2 or less.. preferably Tropical Storm please.

 

Storm surge is not often an issue for Bermuda. The sea depth drops fast east and south of Bermuda so the piling doesn't happen as badly as it does in the shallow gulf or Bahama shelf.  And A lot of Bermuda sits up higher than the 5' of surge you might expect.  Beaches are often impacted badly of course, and there are some low lying islands toward the port on the west end and also the Airport area is pretty low.

[PelicanBill]

No real change in forecast for path or strength today.  But oh boy, batten down Canadian Maritimes!

But first, this is cutting it so close for Bermuda. That turn is a critical thing and we just won't know the exact path until winds are already arriving so Bermuda has to prepare as if to expect a cat 3 hurricane.  It would be a lucky development if that turn could start earlier on Sunday. Fingers crossed.

 

[PelicanBill]

I see you lurking @bluesea777 and we're hoping for the best!

[PelicanBill]

I can't be certain, and don't have time to compare positions, but I think I see Teddy shifted a little more east from Bermuda with this 11am report.  But even closer as a category 3.

[bluesea777]

8 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

I see you lurking @bluesea777 and we're hoping for the best!

Yep, guilty!

 

Wanted to wait a bit before I can comment. Hopefully, it is looking that Teddy is going to be a brush by. This will mean we’ll get the tropic winds from his tail. We’ll see on Sunday. 
 

We’re prepared as always. Boring old sh*t. Paulette was the 13th direct hit since Emily in Sept 1987. 
 

[PelicanBill]

Glad to see the track is now 100 miles east of Bermuda.  That should keep impact to tropical storm or Cat 1 strength.

 

[bluesea777]

22 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

 

I agree the high pressure has a good chance to keep pushing Teddy east.  The danger is the size and strength of Teddy needs a pretty strong push.  What I don't like is the Cat 3 or 4 status as it approaches Bermuda.. I want it to back down sooner to keep effects on the islands to Cat 2 or less.. preferably Tropical Storm please.

 

Storm surge is not often an issue for Bermuda. The sea depth drops fast east and south of Bermuda so the piling doesn't happen as badly as it does in the shallow gulf or Bahama shelf.  And A lot of Bermuda sits up higher than the 5' of surge you might expect.  Beaches are often impacted badly of course, and there are some low lying islands toward the port on the west end and also the Airport area is pretty low.

You’re right about Bermuda! How do you know? Have you been to the island (or lived here)?

 

I’ve been living here 40 years now (I’m a Brit). 
 

[PelicanBill]

13 hours ago, bluesea777 said:

You’re right about Bermuda! How do you know? Have you been to the island (or lived here)?

 

I’ve been living here 40 years now (I’m a Brit). 
 

Thanks!  Two reasons.  Yes I have been there. And I pay attention to the landscape because of the second reason: I am a weather watcher.  I've seen many storms come to Bermuda or make a brush, and I pay attention and remember. I connect with local weather sources and local people to learn.  So I can be a good interpreter.

 

My mission here is to explain tropical weather simply and clearly, and take the media sensationalist out and paint realistic pictures of the potential of a storm.

 

In October 2016 we boarded a cruise in NYC that was supposed to go to Bermuda with 2 1/2 days stay.  But Hurricanes Matthew and Nicole had other ideas.  We made it in 2018 instead but for a one day stop.  For our short stay I organized our own excursion to Horsheshoe beach for a few hours early in the morning before the crowds arrived, then to the Swizzle Inn for lunch, ice cream across the stream, and a ride back.  I always engage the taxi drivers and learn plenty.  I hope to get back for quality time again soon... what a beautiful place!

 

[PelicanBill]

Feeling a lot better about Teddy today.  Strength drops before nearing Bermuda again, and drops before Canada as well.  Distance is now well off Bermuda and Bermuda is on the "soft side" so this one will likely be of less impact than the last... they will still have to batten down but it should more a nuisance to most and only minor damage and power outages. As long as this holds.  We need to see that turn tomorrow afternoon.

[PelicanBill]

Better news on Teddy - it is already weaker at 105mph winds at the center.  Now we watch for that turn today. It is still moving WNW which would take it straight to Bermuda.  The turn north will confirm the forecast track to pass well east of Bermuda.

 

[PelicanBill]

Teddy ibehaved well ands followed the forecast path.  Made the turn a little late but will stay well off Bermuda, with only some tropical storm force effects.

[PelicanBill]

Now all eyes are on Canada. Hockey country!  Nova Scotia and lower New Brunswick: Sherburne, Cape Breton, Saint John. Also Prince Edward Island.  Weaker but still tropical storm level further in for a large area of eastern Canada.

[Capt Guy]

On 9/17/2020 at 8:09 PM, PelicanBill said:

 

I agree the high pressure has a good chance to keep pushing Teddy east.  The danger is the size and strength of Teddy needs a pretty strong push.  What I don't like is the Cat 3 or 4 status as it approaches Bermuda.. I want it to back down sooner to keep effects on the islands to Cat 2 or less.. preferably Tropical Storm please.

 

Storm surge is not often an issue for Bermuda. The sea depth drops fast east and south of Bermuda so the piling doesn't happen as badly as it does in the shallow gulf or Bahama shelf.  And A lot of Bermuda sits up higher than the 5' of surge you might expect.  Beaches are often impacted badly of course, and there are some low lying islands toward the port on the west end and also the Airport area is pretty low.

155 miles east of St. George's, 90 mph sustained, a moderate Cat 1. The wind in Bermuda at the time was in high teens to low twenties, not too bad . . . and the killer . . .  nothing on the map for the next 10 days. The season could be over early which would be a very good thing.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/al20/al202020.public_a.037.shtml?