Why not 95%

[ChiefMateJRK]

9 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Sure… for you let me give it a try. Pull up virtually any LARGE travel agent site. Big box sites work nicely. Put in your ship date and take it all the way to choosing a cabin. Most sites will only list 15 cabins per category as available. If there are 15 listed, it is highly likely there are many more. Click thru each category and scan. If you go down the line of categories and find 15 available in most the ship is not selling well (at all). If you compare a NCL cruise in September to a CCL (or RCL) cruise of the same (or close) date, you can see that CcL and RCl cabins are selling more than NCL cabins are. Part of that can be explained by NCL not yet sailing and people are gun shy do you this (and their financial position), but if 💯 was the most important thing then you would expect NCL to capture some of the CcL and RCl market share. That isn’t happening. It’s a time consuming process, but I’ve got spreadsheets dating back decades. Clear trends have emerged time and time again. Unfortunately my data maybe no longer relevant, but new data will emerge. 

Thanks.  If NCL is allowing October booking to 100% capacity, and the others only 60%, would this system still be meaningful?

[BermudaBound2014]

8 minutes ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

Thanks.  If NCL is allowing October booking to 100% capacity, and the others only 60%, would this system still be meaningful?

Yes, It would skew the data (I've never tracked ships with reduced capacity so it’s new territory for me)….BUT the most important part of this tracking system is pricing. When 15 cabins are showing available and the price keeps dropping, very slow selling especially if prices are dropping on higher categories. As ships start to sell well, balcony and above pricing will be the first to stabilize. 

 

Do you have a link for NCL sailing at 💯 this October? That’s the first I’ve seen that suggested. 

[alohayall]

On 7/26/2021 at 10:11 PM, Fla Senior said:

I posted this as a reply on another post and no one responded. So will ask everyone:

"I really don't have a dog in this one way or the other. Just curious. Carnival is sailing from Florida with a 95% vaccination requirement and no resistance from the Gov. Wondering why NCL can't do same."

I’m going with “because Risk Management” said it was the best option.

 

It’s only through October 31, and the Alaska runs haven’t started yet.  They aren’t even leaving from FL now, right?  Just start slowly, with few ships and reduced capacity and test the waters.

 

It will get zealous cruisers back on the ships and earn some money.

[ChiefMateJRK]

3 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Do you have a link for NCL sailing at 💯 this October? That’s the first I’ve seen that suggested. 

No, I just made up.  I don't believe that anybody who isn't employed by NCL knows at this point.  It is likely proprietary information.

[oteixeira]

6 minutes ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

No, I just made up.  I don't believe that anybody who isn't employed by NCL knows at this point.  It is likely proprietary information.

Correct, what we can say for a fact (as told by cruise critic in an article today) is that their very first sailing was 75% in Greece, so NCL is doing much more percentage then RCI and Celebrity, and the same as what we are seeing in most Carnival sailings.

[BermudaBound2014]

11 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

Correct, what we can say for a fact (as told by cruise critic in an article today) is that their very first sailing was 75% in Greece, so NCL is doing much more percentage then RCI and Celebrity, and the same as what we are seeing in most Carnival sailings.

 

Thank you. From a business model this is good for NCL. From a 'containing covid' model it seems a bit more risky out of the gate. We know covid will get onboard and it seems to me that the more people sailing, the more covid cases will be detected. I could be wrong.

[oteixeira]

7 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Thank you. From a business model this is good for NCL. From a 'containing covid' model it seems a bit more risky out of the gate. We know covid will get onboard and it seems to me that the more people sailing, the more covid cases will be detected. I could be wrong.

Covid will get onboard no matter the numbers, RCI and Celebrity have already proved this.  NCL is doing what they need to do to keep us safe (100% Vax) and they will still have cases onboard.  Won't be risky, since there is now good plans on how to contain it.  

[BermudaBound2014]

2 hours ago, oteixeira said:

Covid will get onboard no matter the numbers, RCI and Celebrity have already proved this.  NCL is doing what they need to do to keep us safe (100% Vax) and they will still have cases onboard.  Won't be risky, since there is now good plans on how to contain it.  

Bad press is always risky. I believe the publicity over a covid case is more risky than the response to the cases themselves. 

[oteixeira]

3 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Bad press is always risky. I believe the publicity over a covid case is more risky than the response to the cases themselves. 

Again I believe that RCI and Celebrity have both already proven you wrong.  Have they stopped cruising, or lost their shirts because of the cases onboard?  The answer is simply it has not mattered, or changed a thing in what they have been doing since they restarted.

[BermudaBound2014]

6 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

Again I believe that RCI and Celebrity have both already proven you wrong.  Have they stopped cruising, or lost their shirts because of the cases onboard?  The answer is simply it has not mattered, or changed a thing in what they have been doing since they restarted.

 
I don’t think we disagree that covid cases have been handed well. But the press is always a gamble. Especially when entire newspapers are owned by one person. We have no idea which line is in a portfolio and if you don’t think this type of manipulation happens on a daily basis you are being naive. Follow the money

[oteixeira]

1 minute ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 
I don’t think we disagree that covid cases have been handed well. But the press is always a gamble. Especially when entire newspapers are owned by one person. We have no idea which line is in a portfolio and if you don’t think this type of manipulation happens on a daily basis you are being naive. Follow the money

Newspapers are a thing of the past.  News websites are many, and you can find both sides of every story.  There is no one source of news that can bring down a multi-billion dollar company over a case or two of covid on board.  If you think there are you are the one being naive.   Honestly, if the news had that much power Trump would not have lasted a year, and Biden would have been ousted by now (based on how each side wrote their articles).  Anyone who thinks different is only reading news from one side and not the other.  And I use the word news loosely, over the past 20 years it is more and more opinion pushing that news reporting.

[BermudaBound2014]

1 minute ago, oteixeira said:

Newspapers are a thing of the past.  News websites are many, and you can find both sides of every story.  There is no one source of news that can bring down a multi-billion dollar company over a case or two of covid on board.  If you think there are you are the one being naive.   Honestly, if the news had that much power Trump would not have lasted a year, and Biden would have been ousted by now (based on how each side wrote their articles).  Anyone who thinks different is only reading news from one side and not the other.  And I use the word news loosely, over the past 20 years it is more and more opinion pushing that news reporting.

1)please stop with the politics - it’s not allowed here for a reason. 

 

2) I thought it was obvious that I didn’t mean an actual black and white newspaper lol. I really need to learn to be more specific.

 

3) of course they are opinion pieces. That’s how they are so easily bought.

 

Bottom line- You think sailing with 75% on your first sailing in 16 months holds no more risk than sailing with 25%. I disagree.  

 

 

 

[oteixeira]

11 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

1)please stop with the politics - it’s not allowed here for a reason. 

 

2) I thought it was obvious that I didn’t mean an actual black and white newspaper lol. I really need to learn to be more specific.

 

3) of course they are opinion pieces. That’s how they are so easily bought.

 

Bottom line- You think sailing with 75% on your first sailing in 16 months holds no more risk than sailing with 25%. I disagree.  

 

 

 

1)  I was making an example of what opposing news stations do, it had nothing to do with real politics, and I went out of my way to include both sides opinions to show that.

 

2) It was not obvious you meant websites.

 

 

I think the number of guests on board when sailing 100% vaccinated would make no difference between 25-100% capacity.  Both ways will present with some covid cases, but nothing that can't be handed by the current in place cruise ship policies.   I guess if you don't believe that, despite proof that it can happen (Carnival is already over 70% with no issues and only 95% vaccinated) then we will never agree, on that you are correct.

Edited July 30, 2021 by oteixeira

[BermudaBound2014]

1 minute ago, oteixeira said:

1)  I was making an example of what opposing news stations do, it had nothing to do with real politics, and I went out of my way to include both sides opinions to show that.

 

2) It was not obvious you meant websites.

 

 

I think the number of guests on board when sailing 100% vaccinated would be no different then 25% vaccinated.  Both ways will present with some covid cases, but nothing that can't be handed by the current in place cruise ship policies.   I guess if you don't believe that, despite proof that it can happen (Carnival is already over 70% with no issues and only 95% vaccinated) then we will never agree, on that you are correct.

LOL- I’ve been saying this all along…… for weeks actually. 

 

BTW- I don’t mean websites- I mean “news” regardless of medium 

[oteixeira]

4 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

LOL- I’ve been saying this all along…… for weeks actually. 

 

BTW- I don’t mean websites- I mean “news” regardless of medium 

I actually flubbed the paragraph about vaccines, it came out wrong.  I have corrected it, and I am not sure we agree.  I am onboard with vaccinated cruises, I don't think you are.  Great news for both of us, there are options to cruise either way, so we can vote with our dollars.

[BermudaBound2014]

1 minute ago, oteixeira said:

I actually flubbed the paragraph about vaccines, it came out wrong.  I have corrected it, and I am not sure we agree.  I am onboard with vaccinated cruises, I don't think you are.  Great news for both of us, there are options to cruise either way, so we can vote with our dollars.

Are you joking?? I’ve said for months over and over and over that 💯 vaccinated cruising is the safest way. That sailing with 💯 at the start up will help reduce media hysteria. That the biggest obstacle is the perception from Johnny public that cruises are floating Petri dishes.

Where I seem to differ from  many people on this forum is that I follow the money first and foremost. I don’t believe NcL (a family cruise line) can survive with such a restrictive policy for long. I acknowledge that the USA is still less than 50% vaccinated and that we will likely never vaccinate more than 25% of children. I believe that unless ncl changes it’s 💯 vaccination policy they will alienate too many customers to survive financially. 
 

We absolutely ageee that voting with our money is key. Those who only want to sail on 100 vaccinated cruises should only be booking 100% vaccinated cruises. I think the market is showing that most people are perfectly fine with 95% 

[oteixeira]

1 minute ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Are you joking?? I’ve said for months over and over and over that 💯 vaccinated cruising is the safest way. That sailing with 💯 at the start up will help reduce media hysteria. That the biggest obstacle is the perception from Johnny public that cruises are floating Petri dishes.

Where I seem to differ from  many people on this forum is that I follow the money first and foremost. I don’t believe NcL (a family cruise line) can survive with such a restrictive policy for long. I acknowledge that the USA is still less than 50% vaccinated and that we will likely never vaccinate more than 25% of children. I believe that unless ncl changes it’s 💯 vaccination policy they will alienate too many customers to survive financially. 
 

We absolutely ageee that voting with our money is key. Those who only want to sail on 100 vaccinated cruises should only be booking 100% vaccinated cruises. I think the market is showing that most people are perfectly fine with 95% 

Fair enough, I think that that the 100% will last as long as the CSO is in place, once that is all dropped I think the ask will be a little less restrictive.  All of my cruises are on NCL at the moment, but past Oct 31st, so I honestly can't tell you if I am going to be cruising 100% vaccinated.  I was considering both Celebrity and MSC next year in November.  I am leaning more towards Celebrity specifically because of the two lines protocols, even though I really want to try out the Seashore.  

[DCGuy64]

One question I had is whether NCL is deliberately keeping some cabins off-limits in terms of booking just in case they need to quarantine people there. I’ve read on the MSC thread about an entire deck being treated that way. 

[BermudaBound2014]

6 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

Fair enough, I think that that the 100% will last as long as the CSO is in place, once that is all dropped I think the ask will be a little less restrictive.  All of my cruises are on NCL at the moment, but past Oct 31st, so I honestly can't tell you if I am going to be cruising 100% vaccinated.  I was considering both Celebrity and MSC next year in November.  I am leaning more towards Celebrity specifically because of the two lines protocols, even though I really want to try out the Seashore.  

seashore looks great- I had a cruise booked in seaside when all he** broke out. Obviously you don’t need 💯 vaccination and are fine with 95% since you are looking at Celebrity. Personally, I don’t need 100% either.

Edited July 30, 2021 by BermudaBound2014

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

One question I had is whether NCL is deliberately keeping some cabins off-limits in terms of booking just in case they need to quarantine people there. I’ve read on the MSC thread about an entire deck being treated that way. 

I believe someone reported that both celebrity ans RCl are keeping deck 2 open. Maybe bird can clarify. 

[oteixeira]

2 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

seashore looks great- I had a cruise booked in seaside when all he** broke out. Obviously you don’t need 💯 vaccination and are fine with 95% since you are looking at Celebrity. Personally, I don’t need 100% either.

I would like 100, but will take 95%.  What I won't take is a cruise line who will book with no regard to the percentage, which is where MSC, Disney, and RCI currently are.  

[BermudaBound2014]

12 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

I would like 100, but will take 95%.  What I won't take is a cruise line who will book with no regard to the percentage, which is where MSC, Disney, and RCI currently are.  

And that is obviously (and thankfully) your choice.

1000s of others are booking these lines without hesitation. Obviously (and thankfully) their choice. 

[Fla Senior]

8 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

LOL- you do know you can track inventory, right? It’s easy to figure out what ships are selling well and which aren’t 🙂 

 

 

LOL - NCL has no ships SAILING!  

[BermudaBound2014]

18 minutes ago, Fla Senior said:

LOL - NCL has no ships SAILING!  

Partially Correct-. Ncl has no ships sailing at the moment In the USA  (technically jade is sailing in Greece)

 

No ships sailing is quite different than tracking the inventory if the ships which are SELLING.- lol
 

Currently, NCL is SELLING inventory at a rate lower than the competition,.indicating that cruisers are comfortable SAILING on ships which are only 95% vaccinated.