FF Miles Question

[HopingtoCruiseSoon]

I have seen news articles and notes posted elsewhere on this board that the airline industry is crazy (as usual) and that some of the majors may be out of business in the near future, one of the airlines mentioned (Delta) is the one for which I have a cache of FF miles saved up. I am wondering if Delta should happen to go out of business between now and next Spring, if I'm better off having a ticket in hand or the miles available? I'm thinking that I'd be better off with the tickets since one of Delta's partners could honor the tickets ...

 

Any thoughts??

[greatam]

book your FF tickets ASAP. I wouldn't worry so much about Delta going out of business, (US Air is more likely, maybe United), but for availability of award tickets. They truly are getting harder to find.

 

With all the free giveaways in 2003-4, there are a LOT of people out there with certificates for free flights and those certificate flights as well as FF tickets all come out of the same pool of award tickets.

 

I am still looking for tickets to Russia sometime before my certificates expire. And I have been looking for almost two months. I can find availability in Dec-Jan but not much else when there is not 2 feet of snow on the ground. Good Luck

[Globaliser]

I am wondering if Delta should happen to go out of business between now and next Spring

I also doubt that Delta will be out of business before next spring. They may be in bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11 by then, if management's threats don't make their workforce start negotiating seriously, but Chapter 11 can prolong a company's death for so long that it's impossible to predict when it will really go out of business.

 

I agree that United and US Airways are more likely to be out of business first. But then, the final demise of either or both of them will bring new life to all the survivors.

[Brucemcdou]

It's probably better to use up your miles as you go, rather than saving them in the hope you can get a "big" free ticket such as a first-class trip to Europe. Look for super sales on economy-class tickets, then use your miles to buy an upgrade to business or first class. That way you have the flight you want, you earn even more miles, and you still get the benefits from the miles you've earned.

 

If you have a FF ticket from an airline that goes bankrupt, I doubt that other airlines would honor it - I think they honor "paid" tickets from other airlines because they can get reimbursed by that airline. If the ticket was "free," they won't get paid.

[ozcaz]

Hi everyone,

 

Please excuse my ignorance on this subject as I am Australian and w dont get alot of info regarding your airlines here. Is it really likely United and Us Air are on the verge of bankruptcy. We have booked and paid for tickets on both for dec/jan. I am now a bit concerned. We also have a flight on Chataqua Air or something like that which is part of delta. What a disaster it would be to get there only to find no flights because the airline has gone down the tubes.

 

Caz

[Globaliser]

Is it really likely United and Us Air are on the verge of bankruptcy. We have booked and paid for tickets on both for dec/jan.

Unfortunately, the airline industry is one in which the first warning that most of the public has about fatal business problems with any particular airline is when the airline ceases flying and strands its passengers. (How many Australians knew, even on 12 September 2001, that within a couple of days Ansett Australia would have gone bankrupt and stopped flying?) However, it also follows that anything that is "known" or talked about beforehand tends to be as much speculation as hard news.

 

Having said that, my personal view is pessimistic for both of these airlines.

 

United Airlines went into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in late 2002 (IIRC). In many other countries, a business would be declared bankrupt and put into liquidation if they reached the same financial situation. However, the USA's Chapter 11 is a mechanism which allows a company to continue trading with protection against its creditors while attempts are made under court supervision to restructure the company to try to turn it into a viable operation.

 

UA's original plan was to have restructured sufficiently to emerge from Chapter 11 in a year or so. It hasn't happened. The latest date for which they were aiming was about a month or so ago. However, the plan was critically dependent on them securing a loan repayment guarantee from a government department (the Air Transport Stabilization Board) so that they could get fresh financing from commercial lenders. The figure they sought was USD 1.6 bn. This was turned down. A hasty re-application for a reduced figure of USD 1.1 bn was also turned down, with a strong indication that no guarantee would be provided and that UA should raise the money in the markets on purely commercial terms.

 

This has thrown UA's entire plan into disarray. Analysts are on record as saying they do not now expect UA to emerge from Chapter 11 until early 2005, if it does so at all. If it cannot put together a viable plan, it will go out of business and into liqudation, and it is generally thought that there is a significant probability of this occurring.

 

US Airways has been into Chapter 11 and emerged from it with a business plan that was heavily dependent on new equity financing from a public sector pension fund from Alabama. However, since then it has faced a big shock from Southwest Airlines moving into one of its three big hubs, which has historically had the effect of driving down fares and yields. US Airways announced that it planned to take rather drastic measures to respond to this threat including selling one of those three hubs (whatever that meant). Confidence in the CEO having been lost, he resigned a couple of months ago. As I understand it, no further investment is likely from the pension fund, and things have gone rather quiet on the news front which is not a good sign.

 

Personally, I would not now buy tickets for travel on either airline for any date beyond the end of September unless I could be sure that an insurance policy or my credit card company would at least reimburse me the price I paid for any lost tickets. Moreover, for any date beyond the end of this year I would also want to be reasonably confident that I could make reasonable alternative travel arrangements if the airline were to stop flying.

 

Others may, of course, have different views about this. But what you should do about it probably depends on what tickets you hold, for which routes and for exactly when. You should probably talk to your travel agent about it if the amount of money involved causes you serious concern.

 

Myself, I'm resigned to seeing about 50K UA FF miles go down the tubes early next year - unless of course I can magically find some reason to use them first.

[ozcaz]

Thanks so much for your indepth post. As most of our tickets are part of a round the world ticket I am going to speak to the travel agent today. I would hate to be on our journey and stranded.

Yes,Ansett did go down the tubes with many getting stung. Myself included!!

But some creditors were sent to the wall also. It was really sad. Hopefully these other airlines will survive.

 

Thanks

 

Caz

[HopingtoCruiseSoon]

Thanks for all the responses. I plan to get the award tickets as soon as I can get the rest of my family to actually make deposits for the cruise. We finally decided when we're going and settled on the specific cruise, but one of my relatives keeps delaying looking for a cheaper deal... ARGH!

[greatam]

Thanks for all the responses. I plan to get the award tickets as soon as I can get the rest of my family to actually make deposits for the cruise. We finally decided when we're going and settled on the specific cruise, but one of my relatives keeps delaying looking for a cheaper deal... ARGH!

 

If you have already firmed up the cruise, just looking for cheaper prices on the cruise (ask about refunds or on board credit if the price drops after you book), by all means, book your flights NOW. Award tickets are really getting hard to come by on some airlines (Continental and Delta come to mind).

 

I am still searching for award tickets to Russia sometime other than when the snow is two feet deep. May have to change the plans and go someplace else. But with a fly anywhere in the world certificate, it would only make sense to go to the most exotic, out of the way place I could go.

 

Good luck!!!!

[rdowney]

If you believe that an airline on which you have FF miles will stop flying, one way to protect yourself is to convert those miles into a ticket on one of its partners. For example, if you are concerned about United and have lots of miles, get a ticket on Air New Zealand. If United goes under, you still have a valid ticket. There are enough partners that you should be able to find one that will be in business when you want to fly.

[JanetMarie]

Hi Gang ~ I don't know about you folks, but I have the hardest time using my Delta FF miles. Currently DH and I have available to us, 6 RT tickets each. But I can't even get a flight to FLL for NEXT April. They tell me there are no seats available on the direct flights that we normally take. But if I look at their web site, the plane is literally empty. I find it very exhausting that they will place us on the dates which we need on flights with a connection or even two connections. For example, for us to use FF NEXT April, we can fly from Hartford to Cincinnati to ATL to FLL. To me, that is just crazy when I can take the direct flight and get there in 2 and a half hours. It's frustrating. I just used some mileage to go to Nashville. No problem, and even was able to reserve the emergency row seats for add'l leg room.

Have any of you noticed that you have to be really lenient to use your FF mileage? :eek:

[jcanino]

But I can't even get a flight to FLL for NEXT April. They tell me there are no seats available on the direct flights that we normally take. But if I look at their web site, the plane is literally empty.

Have any of you noticed that you have to be really lenient to use your FF mileage? :eek:

The airlines only allot so many seats per flight for FF tickets. If they know that they will have no problems filling a plane, such as the non stop SONG flights from BDL to FLL, they may not make any FF seats available. April is a popular time for flights from CT to FL so those non stops will be full by the time April rolls around.

 

You have to be lenient and flexible when trying to use FF mile awards. Here is a tip for you. Make your calls either early in the morning or late in the evening. There are fewer supervisors around and res agents can do things without approval. I have had res agents open up seats for me that they would otherwise would have told me no.

[donnajo]

This is the biggest reason why I use a capital one go miles card to accrue miles via credit card. I can use the miles on any airline with no blackout dates. I don't like having to use just one airline because of the stupid blackout dates! Obviously, I still have mileage awarded when I actually fly somewhere and I try to use those miles on more accessible flights.

My dad lives in Orlando and frequent flier seats are NEVER available on American, so I will have to use my miles (now enough for a ticket) for something else.

Another thing that sometimes works - you can actually redeem your miles for cash. 20,000 miles = $200. You can cash in your rewards and use the money to book any flight you want to.

 

It sure is frustrating!

 

Donna

[jimc_usa]

Increased number of miles outstanding and increased awareness of awards that has increased competition for the seats being made available in advance at standard redemption levels.

 

2. Decreasing number of seats being made available in advance by airlines to push more miles usage (reducing their liability) and to keep seats open for revenue as long as they can.

 

So the effect is that if they release any at all in advance (and this varies from airline to airline, CO for example may not release any in advance from anecdotal evidence while AA might open 1-4), they get taken very early due to the larger demand for award flights (so a few lucky will still report success), and then standard awards pretty much become standby awards where you cannot book them until very close to the flight if at all. This, in practice, makes the availability disappear for any typical usage of the standard award which is based on planning about 3-9 months out.

 

FWIW, current load factors are very, VERY high!

 

In what is seemingly now shaping up as perhaps the busiest travel season on record, load factors (% of seats occupied) for June exceeded 80 percent for most of the carriers.

 

Airline Load Factor %

 

June 2004 June 2003

 

AirTran 75.4 73.2

Alaska 76.6 73.0

American 79.0 78.8

America West 80.5 81.7

ATA 80.9 81.6

Continental 82.4 81.0

Delta 81.9 80.5

JetBlue 85.5 87.0

Northwest 86.4 81.8

United 86.0 82.0

US Airways 81.6 78.6

[MandyGirl]

The airlines only allot so many seats per flight for FF tickets.

One airline that I know of allots all of its seats for FF tickets. If a seat is for sale, it doesn't matter how you are paying... cash, credit, or Rapid Rewards credits. There are a few blackout dates (like all airlines have) but as long as there is a seat to sell, you can cash in your FF points for it.

"the number of seats available for Award use on any flight on nonblackout days will be limited only by the capacity of the aircraft. In other words, Award users will be afforded the same priority as full unrestricted fare Customers in making reservations for travel on nonblackout days." Source

Of course I have over 100k in miles to cash in on AA, and can't seem to find dates to match the destinations I want my husband and I to visit. Apparently there really are just a very few (if any) seats available for AAdvantage miles users.

[donnajo]

I agree wholeheartedly! I have a difficult time using my FF miles at American.

I used mileage awards from Capital One to book an American airlines flight because They would not let me use my AAdvantage points (which I have an abundance of). With the credit card points, I actually pay for the fare and then call the cc company and they take it off my charge account and reduce my points.. Therefore, no blackout dates on any airline as it is a "purchased" ticket.

I also get to rack up some more AAdvantage points because I get the air miles from chicago to puerto rico on my "purchased" ticket. free tickets from the airline do not qualify for actual mileage flown on that flight (at least not with American). The whole thing is such a mess.

I am ready to cash in my mileage for money and just use that to book any flight available!

 

Donna