Can They Ride It Out and What Will It Look Like

[Cruising89143]

I think that the Oasis of the Seas (or a ship of her size) some time or other, and RCCL just got unfortunate with the timing. Carnivals 88 ships are mostly small and RCCL's main ships are larger making them sailing in fewer parts of the world with a larger number of passengers. For example, 3 Fantasy class ships - look scary haha- could hold the number of passengers on 1 oasis sailing. Carnival can also position these ships in different parts of the world or the U.S. while the oasis can only be docked at one port. And also, your paying for the newer, larger, better, ship and with money becoming less and less accecible, people will just want to get on a ship going to tropical or historic destinations. Also RCCL is right now just focused on Family and Celebrity focused on Adults while Carnival has them and Princess for kids, HAL, Seadream, Cunard, and Windjammer for adults, and PandO and Costa for European cruisers.

 

Not true. Carnival and Costa have ships that hold as many guests as RCI's Freedom class ships. Carnival cannot place their fleet world wide as they have other lines that they would compete with. Why do you think that they have now pulled all ships from Europe next year other than the Dream and she is only there for a very short time. They were not selling and they were also competing with their other brands. Bottom line, they have a lot of ships to fill with a world economic recession.

[TEXASMUNK]

#1 RCI is STILL profitable.

#2 RCI is working hard to position themselves for this massive economic downturn. IE, suspending the quaterly dividend.

#3 Fuel: Whether it is $150 a barrel or $50 a barrel...RCI will carry more passengers per gallon than any other cruise line based on engine technology and ship size.

#4 The stock price: The reality is the lemmings are in charge right now. We have not pulled out ....yet....it will stabilize and we look to regain our loses in probably 3-4 years. The same for RCI.

#5 If there is major upheavel, you may see 'fringe' lines suffer first...those lines that buy second and third hand ships and attempt to compete.

 

I wish one of us had a crystal ball and we could confirm the future, but for now, I can only hope that the market calms in the coming days and we can begin to see some light at the end of the tunnel (and it is not a freight train bearing down on us!).

[rednancy1]

What if the situation were different and RCI had ordered five new Radiance class ships at 750 million bucks a piece in place of two Oasis class ships. Would the old timers still be poo-pooing RCI? I doubt it.

 

Personally I would be thrilled to see some new Radiance class ships instead of these mammoth creations like Oasis and Allure. :)

[GMoney]

Personally I would be thrilled to see some new Radiance class ships instead of these mammoth creations like Oasis and Allure. :)

 

They do have a new Radiance class ship - it's called Celebrity Solstice.. :D

[Cruise Junky]

Goldstein bought over 16,000 shares yesterday, hopefully he thinks it's hit the bottom.

[G'ma]

I agree with you that Oasis is a gamble. I'm not sure if more traditional cruisers will take to something that less and less resembles a ship. I also suspect that folks who are looking for a "resort" may decide to try a floating resort once. The question is will they tolerate issues that we cruisers regularly put up with and become repeat guests? Examples include checking in and out at the same time as 5000 other people, flying in a day early or rushing back from excursions to make sure that your resort does not leave without you, finding that your Caribbean resort will be located somewhere in Canada due to weather issues.

 

As you said, only time will tell.

 

The Oasis wouldn't be able to go to Canada. It's so huge only a few ports can handle it's docking.......and those docks have been specially built for that ship. Tendering would also be a nightmare with 5000++ people onboard.

 

During hurricane season and at other times when itinerary changes are needed, I visualize Oasis doing a 7 day cruise to nowhere.........

 

Not my cup of tea at all.

[bajathree]

The Oasis wouldn't be able to go to Canada. It's so huge only a few ports can handle it's docking.......and those docks have been specially built for that ship. Tendering would also be a nightmare with 5000++ people onboard.

 

During hurricane season and at other times when itinerary changes are needed' date=' I visualize Oasis doing a 7 day cruise to nowhere.........

[/b']

Not my cup of tea at all.

 

 

You bring up a good point there.

[G'ma]

I think that the Oasis of the Seas (or a ship of her size) some time or other, and RCCL just got unfortunate with the timing. Carnivals 88 ships are mostly small and RCCL's main ships are larger making them sailing in fewer parts of the world with a larger number of passengers. For example, 3 Fantasy class ships - look scary haha- could hold the number of passengers on 1 oasis sailing. Carnival can also position these ships in different parts of the world or the U.S. while the oasis can only be docked at one port. And also, your paying for the newer, larger, better, ship and with money becoming less and less accecible, people will just want to get on a ship going to tropical or historic destinations. Also RCCL is right now just focused on Family and Celebrity focused on Adults while Carnival has them and Princess for kids, HAL, Seadream, Cunard, and Windjammer for adults, and PandO and Costa for European cruisers.

 

Have you ever sailed on a Fantasy Class ship? Apparently not...else you'd know that 1) they have all been completely refurbished and updated in the past 2 years and are simple beautiful; and, 2) their maximum capacity is 2056 passengers, with all uppers and lowers filled (not even close to the floating city of Oasis).

 

As for Carnival ships being "small", you must think that a ship holding 2500-3000 passengers is a bad thing. Carnival builds ships for cruisers who are looking for a cruise experience, not a shopping mall/amusement park. They didn't become the giant they are buy not giving people what they want.

 

RCCL has some very nice ships but this whole floating city thing has driven them into a giant financial hole. These ships, while probably attracting first timers and the curious veteran who might sail once, will have trouble filling up week after week on a year round basis. In addition, the first time they are unable to dock this monstrosity due to a hurricane - and has to spend 7 days at sea, the glamor and fascination will be gone. Carnival ships are still sailing almost 105% occupied......which is pretty average for them.

 

Financially speaking, Carnival is a "cash" company who has relatively little outstanding debt. If any cruise line is going to survive this economic mess, it will be them.

[cruisnfool]

Very interesting thread...thanks for starting it. I don't consider myslf super knowledgeable of big business but I can state my thoughts as a consumer and loyal cruiser.

 

I watch prices all the time and at the time I do my shopping and booking Carnival (just Carnival not the others llike Princess, HAL..ect) are not priced lower enough for me to "go back".

 

I think one of the strong points about RCI differant ship designs is a draw because theres a class for everyone.

I was extremely saddened when Costa started using the same cookie cutter as Carnival......

 

We are just talking design here. There are many more reasons why RCI has loyal past passengers.

 

I am a bit concerned about the Oasis...not for size...I know RCI can handle it. As someone else said people were concerned about the Voyager clas when they first came out and look how popular they are now.

 

What I notice is that the first year pricing for the Oasis is much higher than other first year prices of new ships. This may hurt as they try to fill her.

 

The rule in this house is nobody retires unless minimum of 1 cruise per year is guaranteed.

[Cruising89143]

Have you ever sailed on a Fantasy Class ship? Apparently not...else you'd know that 1) they have all been completely refurbished and updated in the past 2 years and are simple beautiful; and' date=' 2) their maximum capacity is 2056 passengers, with all uppers and lowers filled (not even close to the floating city of Oasis).

 

As for Carnival ships being "small", you must think that a ship holding 2500-3000 passengers is a bad thing. Carnival builds ships for cruisers who are looking for a cruise experience, not a shopping mall/amusement park. They didn't become the giant they are buy not giving people what they want.

 

RCCL has some very nice ships but this whole floating city thing has driven them into a giant financial hole. These ships, while probably attracting first timers and the curious veteran who might sail once, will have trouble filling up week after week on a year round basis. In addition, the first time they are unable to dock this monstrosity due to a hurricane - and has to spend 7 days at sea, the glamor and fascination will be gone. Carnival ships are still sailing almost 105% occupied......which is pretty average for them.

 

Financially speaking, Carnival is a "cash" company who has relatively little outstanding debt. If any cruise line is going to survive this economic mess, it will be them.[/quote']

 

First of all the words "beautiful and "elegant" will never be used to describe anything that Carnival builds. Tacky is more like it. It's true that beauty is in the eye of the beholder which makes me question a person taste that thinks anything Carnival is beautiful.;)

 

Second, I have been on the Fantasy class ships. They are great for the three and four day market. Other than that, they cannot compete with the newer ships no matter how much lip stick Mickey tries to throw on them.

 

Last, if Carnival has a little extra cash on hand why don't they take care of their fleet? Here is how the Triumph looked two weeks ago as she sailed by the Freedom OTS out of Miami. Rust all the way down the ship.

 

If this ship were going into dry dock it would have been one thing but I guess they can't afford a gallon of paint. This is how I remember the Carnival ships when I decided it was time to find a better choice of cruise line.

[rednancy1]

They do have a new Radiance class ship - it's called Celebrity Solstice.. :D

 

 

I've been following the Solstice but always thought she was bigger than that.

 

Well DUH. :eek: Now I know.

 

Maybe I'll have to book another cruise soon......hmmmmm.:)

 

BTW, I miss the dog in your avatar. What's his/her name?

 

Oops..not that your picture isn't nice too. :o

[TEXASMUNK]

Not sure that was the intent of the thread but the cheerleaders offer little in the way of observation, other than their own personal preferences...nothing wrong with that, not blasting them, only the curvival of the cruise industry is not a CCL vs RCI thing.

RCI is positioned well. That does not mean CCL is not.

The question is survivabilty. Will the big guns be around? Probably, but will all the smaller operations with 2 or 3 or 4 ships be here in 3 or 4 years?

 

With the stock plunging for RCI, I would think in terms of pure scrap metal, the ships are worth more than the stock price right now. Literally a great time to buy.

[SherriZ366]

Goldstein bought over 16,000 shares yesterday, hopefully he thinks it's hit the bottom.

How do you check where RCCL oficers buy stock?

[CruiseWherever]

The Oasis wouldn't be able to go to Canada. It's so huge only a few ports can handle it's docking.......and those docks have been specially built for that ship. Tendering would also be a nightmare with 5000++ people onboard.

 

During hurricane season and at other times when itinerary changes are needed' date=' I visualize Oasis doing a 7 day cruise to nowhere.........

 

Not my cup of tea at all.[/quote']

 

At least you have a lot things to do in a bigger ship. Also people like balcony and the older ship just don't have enough.

[Cruise Junky]

How do you check where RCCL oficers buy stock?

 

They have to file an SEC report. If you go to NYSE dot Com and put RCL in the Quotes... you can then go to their filings.

[bajathree]

Goldstein bought over 16,000 shares yesterday, hopefully he thinks it's hit the bottom.

 

At current pricing.....thats not really much at all for one of the big guns on top.

[Cruise Junky]

At current pricing.....thats not really much at all for one of the big guns on top.

 

No, not really. It increased his holdings by just over 10%. It was interesting though that he hasn't been buying in this market until yesterday.

[GMoney]

I've been following the Solstice but always thought she was bigger than that.

 

Well DUH. :eek: Now I know.

 

No, you're right - Solstice is much bigger than Radiance. My response was a bit tongue in cheek. But from what I can tell Solstice seems like a cousin of Radiance. I'll let you know the week of 1/4.

 

 

BTW, I miss the dog in your avatar. What's his/her name?

 

Oops..not that your picture isn't nice too. :o

 

Thank you for your nice comment. I miss Emma too. She died in August at the age of 10 after a very full life. :( Emma is much nicer to look at than me for sure. :)

[BayStateguppy]

My take:

 

1. Goldstein bought those shares out of fear. It was an attempt to stop the free fall.

2. The cruise industry will suffer the same as other industries ie: layoffs, mergers, and selling of lines to foreign entities.

3. Look for major incentives to residents of port states in an effort to fill the ships. Airfare and hotel costs will keep many out of state passengers away.

4. Watch for a hard sell from crew for any and all extras.

5. Cruise cancellations. They'll try to rebook passengers to a less full cruise.

[cruiserbryce]

one of the reasons for all the bad news seems to be the instability and unpredictability of the market...being that everything is so unpredictable I think it could go either way...we are just going to continue doing what we have been...we'll cruise when we can and for as long as its a valueble option

[bajathree]

My take:

 

1. Goldstein bought those shares out of fear. It was an attempt to stop the free fall.

2. The cruise industry will suffer the same as other industries ie: layoffs, mergers, and selling of lines to foreign entities.

3. Look for major incentives to residents of port states in an effort to fill the ships. Airfare and hotel costs will keep many out of state passengers away.

4. Watch for a hard sell from crew for any and all extras.

5. Cruise cancellations. They'll try to rebook passengers to a less full cruise.

 

 

Absolutely....it was just a token show of confidence.....but a $100K stock purchase by the CEO is small potatoes.

[SherriZ366]

They have to file an SEC report. If you go to NYSE dot Com and put RCL in the Quotes... you can then go to their filings.

thanks -- found it.

[bajathree]

Just did some quick research on Mr Goldstein's 2007 compensation pkg. It totaled out to over 2.7 million and included over $600K in stock....now you can see why I say Goldstein buying $100K of stock no big deal.

[rsinj]

Financially speaking' date=' Carnival is a "cash" company who has relatively little outstanding debt. If any cruise line is going to survive this economic mess, it will be them.[/quote']

 

Please elaborate how Carnival is a "cash" company.

 

When you indicate $9,500,000,000 is "relatively little outstanding debt", what is that relative to?

 

 

Howard

[rsinj]

How do you check where RCCL oficers buy stock?

 

http://www.insidercow.com/history/company.jsp?company=rcl

 

 

Howard