NCL new builds. Oceania also???

The question for Oceania is, "Is there really a viable niche market for the R size ships?". Right now the answer is pretty clearly yes. If they have to replace the ships and build new - well, that's a tough question.

I'm sure the plans for the R class are still available so a new build R isn't out of the question. O's R configuration at present are all we need or want.

My problem still is the old saying "that if you are not moving forward then you are going backward." Still true.

Not necessarily true. Of course, it does depend on what you mean by "moving forward". If you mean getting bigger I definitely disagree. I know of a number of businesses that have decided to limit their size and to dominate their market niche or their market region and have been very successful for a long period of time. Of course, nothing lasts forever and smart businessmen are always watching for changes and opportunities that will force them to modify their business plan. If that's what you mean by "moving forward", I agree. :)

We are in a business era where the "Big is better" saying has been dominate. This approach mostly works through economies of scale and automization. The consolidation (and automization) of consumer banking is a good example. Great economies of scale and profits have been achieved. Yet, small, regional, service oriented banks continue to thrive mostly by providing personalized consumer service and efficiency in providing local, small business loans. They do have to be well run and attentive to the particular needs of their community. That is their niche.

It is an emerging business concept that the "Big guys" always create opportunity for the little guys to pick off their disgruntled customers. As a general rule, big businesses cannot match personal service nor can they respond nimbly to changes in demand or local needs that smaller entities can. Not always true but you can bet on it and win in the long haul.

This has been a very interesting thread. Thanks to Stan and Jim for their insights to the cruise industry.

Robbie

Not necessarily true. Of course, it does depend on what you mean by "moving forward". If you mean getting bigger I definitely disagree. I know of a number of businesses that have decided to limit their size and to dominate their market niche or their market region and have been very successful for a long period of time. Of course, nothing lasts forever and smart businessmen are always watching for changes and opportunities that will force them to modify their business plan. If that's what you mean by "moving forward", I agree. :)

 

We are in a business era where the "Big is better" saying has been dominate. This approach mostly works through economies of scale and automization. The consolidation (and automization) of consumer banking is a good example. Great economies of scale and profits have been achieved. Yet, small, regional, service oriented banks continue to thrive mostly by providing personalized consumer service and efficiency in providing local, small business loans. They do have to be well run and attentive to the particular needs of their community. That is their niche.

 

It is an emerging business concept that the "Big guys" always create opportunity for the little guys to pick off their disgruntled customers. As a general rule, big businesses cannot match personal service nor can they respond nimbly to changes in demand or local needs that smaller entities can. Not always true but you can bet on it and win in the long haul.

 

This has been a very interesting thread. Thanks to Stan and Jim for their insights to the cruise industry.

 

Robbie

I am not saying t hat Oceania should build bigger ships, not at all. I think the O class ships are big enough. Have everything that I want. But to keep up we need a few more of them. More places to go, things to see.

I am not saying t hat Oceania should build bigger ships, not at all. I think the O class ships are big enough. Have everything that I want. But to keep up we need a few more of them. More places to go, things to see.

Well, you are at least consistent. Look, if you want to have different ports and itineraries you do not need more ships. You just need to change the existing itineraries. Many are way too profitable to mess with - Baltic for example. But Oceania does add new things like the Sirena circumnavigation of Australia. That sold out fast and they have added a December cruise. I agree with you. I, too, would like some different ports but they don't need new ships to do this. Just the will to take a small risk.

In a very capital intensive industry like the cruise business overbuilding for your market segment is a big danger. Those loan payments have to be made. If you do over build your only option is to lower fares to fill your ships. If on the other hand, your market demand is greater than your capacity you get to raise fares. If you were in charge which would you prefer? Adding ships is a huge risk - see Renaissance. Lots of things can go wrong, fast.There really is a "right size". It is a very big challenge to find it.

Robbie

Well, you are at least consistent. Look, if you want to have different ports and itineraries you do not need more ships. You just need to change the existing itineraries. Many are way too profitable to mess with - Baltic for example. But Oceania does add new things like the Sirena circumnavigation of Australia. That sold out fast and they have added a December cruise. I agree with you. I, too, would like some different ports but they don't need new ships to do this. Just the will to take a small risk.

 

In a very capital intensive industry like the cruise business overbuilding for your market segment is a big danger. Those loan payments have to be made. If you do over build your only option is to lower fares to fill your ships. If on the other hand, your market demand is greater than your capacity you get to raise fares. If you were in charge which would you prefer? Adding ships is a huge risk - see Renaissance. Lots of things can go wrong, fast.There really is a "right size". It is a very big challenge to find it.

 

Robbie

Exactly what I had said a few pages ago.

You just put it more succinctly and more eloquently :D

Exactly what I had said a few pages ago.

You just put it more succinctly and more eloquently :D

Thank you.

Great minds often reach the same conclusions ;)