notamermaid

Interesting question. Long range I do not know any apart from what you folks have mentioned and historical date I get from German weather sights. Forecasts here tend to stop at 14 days into the future, I guess after that it becomes too vague. Meteorologists do modelling now for Autumn but that is too much expertise for me to deal with really. Forecasts - Kaub now has a nice and very helpful 14 day probability chart for the river level. I tend not to use it here for our purposes because it gets too confusing and too vague to look into the future for 14 days every day anew. What I will say about it is that it does not look too good. When the level at Kaub falls below 78cm it is likely to stay there for eight consecutive days. However, we have not fully got there yet and the figure only appears on Sunday in the forecast. With a bit of luck - the tentative forecast suggests so - Kaub should not drop much further than 78cm. May the further decline be halted and the river stays roughly at that low level? It would not be good as it makes navigating tricky but it would be good because as far as I know all river cruise ships can sail at levels in the upper 70's. My last sentence above is almost the closest I will be able to get to without annoying an expert. The river cruise ships of 135m length with a deep draft are naturally the first affected by the low levels and figures of between 70cm and 60cm may impact those ships. The river Rhine always stays navigable for small barges, a few excursion boats depending on area, even in 2018 the smallest river cruise ships could sail (it was difficult to establish, but it appears those with 90m length and shorter made it through the Rhine Gorge). So why is that? The Rhine is free flowing from after the lock at Iffezheim all the way into the Netherlands and partly relies on the tributaries supplying much water. This works really but in drought the shallows and rocks from around Worms and up to Koblenz present a problem. From around Worms to somewhere before the Rhine Gorge the navigation channel is dredged deep enough to cause few problems (at this low level, it causes problems when the level gets worse) but in the Rhine Gorge it is shallower and the nature of the river bed prevents deep dredging in parts (try blasting dense rock). Note that "navigation channel" is not "river", i.e. the river in the Rhine Gorge is very deep in a few bits, really uneven surface. To the figure 78cm at Kaub. At this level the navigation channel is 190cm deep. This means the authorities try to maintain this level and the shipping industry can plan to have that depth. In practice it is more complicated, but that is a matter for the logistics companies and captains. With every centimetre less on the gauge, the navigation channel get shallower and the depth of 190cm is not there, but it also becomes narrower and more bumpy, i.e. more dangerous to sail. What I mean with "narrower" and "bumps" is shown here on a schematic drawing of the Danube: taken from: https://www.viadonau.org/wirtschaft/services-transportplanung/abladetiefenberechnung Imagine a wide navigation channel on the Rhine that is wide enough for two ships but in drought gets narrower and passage is not possible, creating waiting time. Just one aspect in a few places along the way on your journey from Mainz to Koblenz. And imagine an even bumpier river bed. Part of the Rhine Gorge is deeper than at Kaub, so closer to Koblenz it gets a little easier again. After Koblenz, the navigation channel is dredged deeper again and generally speaking is wider as well. Okay, Kaub at 84cm, forecast for tomorrow 81cm to 80cm. notamermaid

Yes, next week will not be fun. I now own three fans but I will still consider sleeping with the fridge door open, lying right next to it. I hope you will be able to find a shady, cool place. In a previous year I read the comments of an official, i.e. engineer of sorts, who said in a newspaper article that the river cruise ships with the deepest draft start getting problems when the level at Pfelling is at 290cm, hence the fact that I keep mentioning that figure. Of course, it does not mean a ship cannot sail, that is decided by the individual captain, but it means that passage will be more difficult and a captain may not attempt the passage when he sees the forecast of 286cm. Another captain may say 280cm is fine for his ship. And so on. Draining the water is a good way to get extra centimetres under the hull, apparently better than unloading all passengers. But a combination of the two is even better, if only a tiny bit. And safer for the passengers should the ship get stuck. Talking of learned discussion: I have seen this interesting drawing of how a ship sits in water on the Danube, with lots of lines and explanations. I will try and find that. Pfelling gauge is at 246cm.

Today is the anniversary of the flooding in the Ahr valley. Television is doing special reports. I have not been able to watch them. I woke up this morning with a sadness that I have not been able to shake off. It has been made worse probably by a very dear person returning from a recent day trip to the valley saying "it still looks awful". People in the valley are angered about bureaucracy, broken promises and feel forgotten over what else is going on in the world. Due to a project at work and the relative proximity to where I live, I have certainly not forgotten. What keeps coming back to me is what I posted during the evening of that day in the thread on the Rhine, by chance "immortalizing" the visual display of a disaster in the making: quote "Here is the current flooding map for Germany, it shows the gauging stations: Purple is the worst colour. The big blue patch at the bottom of the map is Lake Constance. Much of that water in Switzerland will go to the Rhine." end quote Much of the Ahr valley turned red and purple. Not long after I posted this map one of the gauging stations failed as the level went off the scale and broke the instruments. Recovery in the Ahr valley will take years. Full emotional recovery - can the people ever? I will go to bed with a heavy heart and pray that the gauge closest to me will never ever get to purple. notamermaid

You are right, it is very difficult if not impossible to relate the figures and I will deliver on my promise to explain a bit more, i.e. 78cm at Kaub, etc. shortly. That is not good but not as bad as the same figure appearing at Kaub. But even at Kaub this is not too bad. One could say that the navigation channel becomes narrower and shallower with the bumps in the river bed getting closer to the hull of the ship with every centimetre of level lost. Important note: the Rhine River is never "closed", i.e. in drought the authorities do not step in and stop river traffic (unless there is an imminent danger due to a sudden hazard like a ship stuck at an angle in the navigation channel). One by one ships stop sailing for safety reasons based on the individual draft. notamermaid

It is a cruel twist that on this day we hope to have some rain, mother nature can be brutal to us. A year ago today rain, torrential rain, swept the area and devastated the Ahr valley. We had flooding in Western Europe. People along the Rhine have not forgotten, while life goes on and the catastrophe was not covered in the news much, I am often reminded of it and so are many people. I live close enough and have met people from the Ahr valley and helpers. It is good to read that international news outlets during the last few days have come back to the valley with coverage of life a year after the floods. But more on that in another thread. notamermaid

The river levels this lunchtime: Maxau 384cm (Upper Rhine valley) Kaub 89cm (Middle Rhine valley aka Rhine Gorge) Koblenz 89cm (Middle Rhine valley just before Moselle confluence) Cologne 143cm (Lower Rhine valley) All rivers in the catchment area of the Rhine are suffering, as you can imagine. Those controlled by locks can remain navigable but like the Neckar for example are nevertheless showing up orange on the gauges map, meaning they are statistically low. The problem in the Rhine Gorge with the lack of rain is a combination of the level in Lake Constance falling (the Rhine's natural reservoir), the large tributaries not supplying enough water and the navigation channel being the shallowest of any sections of the river. Ships are already slowing down it seems and yesterday I read of the nicko cruises Rhein Melodie not making it as far as Strasbourg on her planned itinerary. Strasbourg was done as an excursion from Mannheim (the itinerary was not supposed to go as far upstream as Basel it appears). Let us have a look at the rocks exposed at Oberwesel (photos from a previous year): https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datei:Jungfrauen_01_1.JPG They are the seven maidens (the navigational/authorities word is Jungferngrund) at kilometre 551 and, as you can imagine on the Rhine, there is a legend attached to them. Outlook for tomorrow: 86cm to 83cm. Modelling suggests the decline is slowing down and the figure 80 has been pushed to Saturday. No recovery in sight, which makes it all a bit ominous and brings 78cm into view for Sunday. notamermaid

Pfelling gauge showing 251cm this lunchtime, that is a few centimetres less than yesterday lunchtime. notamermaid

Thank you for the photo, I think it gets the mood across on the Rhine during the cloudy days nicely (the hilly river regions are quite similar to each other). That reminds me. Last Sunday in October European Summer Time ends (30 October 2022) and that leap of an hour makes quite a difference to evening schedules, i.e. one will most likely have dinner with darkness outside from that evening. If one wants to plan accordingly, I think this can help: https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/germany/cologne I have set it for Cologne in this example. Also: 1 November is All Saints Day which is a public holiday in many areas (shop closure). notamermaid

Did a bit of a search and was able to retrieve the data from 2018, this is available on the Bavarian authority's website. July 2018 at Pfelling gauge: The blue gives you the daily average, the line that falls below that is the daily minimum, above that, correspondingly, is the maximum. Ignoring that daily fluctuation, one can see that the river was low in July, too low for comfort on many days already. August only got worse. NW means low water MW means mean water. Remember, 2018 had an unusual weather pattern in Europe which gave us an exceptionally dry Summer and Autumn. That was not repeated in the following years. notamermaid

Accident on the Moselle. During the early hours of Tuesday, a river cruise ship crashed into the "MS Goldstück" excursion boat and her landing stage. The ship also hit an embankment wall which partly collapsed. There is major damage and the MS Goldstück cannot sail. The name of the river cruise ship has not been disclosed. I am sorry for the owners of the excursion boat, especially as the tourist season is in full swing. Photos: https://binnenschifffahrt-online.de/2022/07/haefen-wasserstrassen/26168/fahrgastschiff-kollidiert-mit-stilllieger/ The excursion boat website with the notice: https://www.ms-goldstueck.de/index.php/de/ As of today, they think the next sailing will be on 16 July. This sounds not too bad then, I hope this works out for them. notamermaid

I have just read that it is not a yacht but the excursion boat "MS Goldstück" . Further reporting in the Moselle thread. notamermaid

Dipping below 260cm yesterday, Pfelling is back up now a little, but I would not call this a recovery. It is at 262cm. The forecast has been adjusted and for tomorrow suggests figures around 260cm. Small amounts of rain forecast for the next two days. After that hot temperatures and no rain. notamermaid

I don't know what is happening with river cruise ships these days... In the early hours of Tuesday a river cruise ship hit a yacht of sorts that was docked at a landing stage at Alken on the Moselle. Yacht and steel construction suffered a lot of damage. Apparently the river cruise ship also crashed into a supporting wall of the embankment, making the wall partly collapse. The name of the ship has not been disclosed. The accident is obviously under investigation. Back to the Rhine, where conditions are of course worsening. With every centimetre of level lost, the shallows and rocks become bigger hazards. Kaub as forecast fell to 100cm early this morning, now stands at 96cm. Fluctuation happens of course but it is not much during 24 hours. Here is the graph to illustrate what I mean: With the absence of rain we see the steady slow decline, which is forecast to continue. 90cm may be reached by lunchtime tomorrow, 80cm is suggested for late Friday evening. Which brings us close to the ominous figure of 78cm. What this is about I will explain briefly for the newcomers to the subject later. But now to Beethoven. The statue of the famous son of this city on the Rhine was erected in 1845. Being exposed to the elements, it suffered and after restoration has now returned onto its base in front of the old Postamt. Famous is the unveiling ceremony, tourist guides in the city I think have been using this incident for chuckles from their listeners ever since (I have been a happy listener myself)! https://www.dw.com/en/polished-beethoven-returns-to-bonn/a-60348962 notamermaid

Great to hear from you, I was wondering what you two are up to these days. You are not actually saying when you are going. Very soon? Have a great time. What a splendid trip to look forward to. notamermaid

Aah, I see now. Thanks. notamermaid

Sorry, but from a European Union customer standpoint with maximum three months full payment before any river cruise, I fail to see the deal, too. How does only $25 dollar deposit make the river cruise any cheaper? I guess I would need to read the e-mail in full. To me from the little information I have it sounds like empty bait. I will leave it at that. notamermaid

Hmm, I expect the water level at Kaub to be between 40cm and 400cm. I am actually half serious, I have no idea and neither do most people apart from a few weather and hydrology experts that do modelling of weather patterns. But generally speaking, late October is a bit on the low side. As regards a prediction, anything more than what I have just said would be like leaning myself out of the window very far. As regards a tentative forecast, that will be available ten days before your cruise starts. Weather: nights in late October will be chilly, day temperatures without frost, often above 10 Celsius. Rain will vary. The Rhine has a micro climate of not that much precipitation, it will likely be more in the Netherlands than upstream. Perhaps someone who has sailed around that time can give you more impressions. Basel to Amsterdam is the classic route and a great introduction to this part of the world if you have never been there before. But it is enjoyable for repeat cruisers too, of course. Oh, and if you have not joined a roll call yet, you may like to do so. Some people prefer to answer questions more in that private space. notamermaid

It is Tuesday early evening and the level at Kaub has fallen to 104cm. On Saturday a river cruise ship collided with a barge near Speyer. Two people were slightly injured, but after brief medical attention could return to the ship and continue sailing. Damage to the ship was just at the bow above the water line so the ship continued its journey (after a brief inspection). The barge turned sideways to the navigation channel and ran aground on a groyne. It was later freed and could also continue sailing. The cause of the accident is unknown and under investigation. Here is a short video: https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/rheinland-pfalz/ludwigshafen/zusammenstoss-zweier-schiffe-rlp-100.html Due to the sheer fact that police and authorities were informed of the potential number of people needing attention, i.e. the river cruise ship passengers, this initiated a major rescue operation, complete with helicopters. Thankfully, this turned out not to be needed. The second accident happened at the island Niederwerth near Koblenz. A barge (consisting of two parts) got stuck and had to uncouple. Then another ship pulled the barge free. Trying to free the uncoupled part the second ship got stuck, so the freed barge came to the rescue and freed the ship, them in effect helping each other. Problem solved... To which one of the policemen of the police launch said: "Quite a curiosity. Have not seen this in more than twenty years of service." Both Dutch ships suffered no damage and continued on their respective journeys. notamermaid

Not got news from the map (the one above). Let us do the pop-up version once more: For some software reason, the graphics do not show the bar properly, but the orange dot is plain to see. And the level has fallen below what the forecast had suggested. The figures given are "raw data", but even if those figures are adjusted upwards by the authorities, I think it it obvious there is not enough water coming from further upstream. The new forecast suggests now for tomorrow 248cm. I do not recall when the problems in the abysmal year of 2018 started. By August we were definitely talking about ship swaps. I will try and retrieve some data to compare this July to that July then. For now, here is the info from the data sheet page on Pfelling gauge: This means the lowest known water level at Pfelling gauge was 228cm on 23 August 2018. Yes, the authorities adjusted the data around the end of 2018 and put that figure as the new lowest ever recorded. notamermaid

A new forecast for the river levels is published every day, so is there any real change to this: No, this still stands. Friday is now of course coming closer and looking at the figures for that day we see 85cm to 82cm. Saturday I am afraid could see potentially lower figures still, i.e. the downward trend continues. notamermaid

Oops... I took several photos. I seem to remember you were not supposed to photograph the displays in the library, so I did the floor. Do not recall about the other rooms. There was an exhibition and I think I took the photos in there. And in the courtyard. notamermaid

Which makes me wonder if the CC promotion is only sent to US site users. Would a subscriber to a newsletter in the UK get this? I have never received a promotion or things like that from CC. No idea if that is my settings or they just know that I am not in the US/Canada/UK etc. To be honest, I have never thought about this before now. By the way, Viking does not market to German speaking folk. notamermaid

With the river levels being fine on the Elbe (perhaps a little surprisingly), Dresden being at 149cm, let us relax and have a look at another company and ship that also sails the river northwards and the Canals westwards, similarly to Saga UK: https://www.nicko-cruises.de/en/fleet/flussschiffe/ms-thurgau-saxonia nicko cruises charters the Thurgau Saxonia (Thurgau refers to a Swiss company). Note that they also use the ship to sail East and North. An unusual direction with its own appeal. It is important to note that nicko only goes so far in accommodating English-language passengers and I highly recommend checking this before you consider booking. With German language skills, an open mind for new areas hardly sailed and a willingness to forgo the luxury of a 135m ship these I am sure are enjoyable itineraries on a pleasant ship. The locks, canals and depth of the river preventing large ships from sailing, all ships, being it German or English charters, will be similar in size. Basic amenities should be similar, too. notamermaid

Tricky. Most smaller ships of the two deck type probably will not have a second dining area. You may need to look around for those. There are other ships like the River Adagio that will be split level, but not sure which companies have them. CroisiEurope only has ships up to a length of 110m and some two level, but not sure about split level. You could ask this question in its own thread. It it an interesting topic I find. Wonder if someone knows something that will exactly fit what you are looking for. Edit: Daisi's and my answer appeared at the same time. notamermaid

So what can we expect at Pfelling? The tentative forecast for tomorrow shows 266cm as a likely figure, which is official mean low water. Although the level is already low for some river cruise ships, statistically this is not visible yet on the map. Clicking on Pfelling gauge, right now you get this screenshot (enlarged by me): Still on green, which can be deceiving when just looking at the map, but the level on the bar is close to the orange colour when you click on the Pfelling gauge dot to make the info pop up, which I have done here. notamermaid