tidecat

It went down the day earnings came out, but started going up the next day before peaking at $19.04 in early July.

Most sites use trailing twelve months (TTM) to look at metrics like Price/Earnings ratio (PE). In this case, Carnival had a loss of $0.65 per share in Q3 2022 and replaced it with a profit of $0.79 per share. For Q4 we should see a loss of around $0.10 to $0.18/share, compared to a $1.27 per share in Q4 2022. Unfortunately the first two quarters of 2023 were losses totaling $0.87/share, so the TTM earnings will still be below zero. This should be fixed by Q1 2024, as Carnival would be rolling off a loss of $0.55/share and presumably replacing it with a profit or a much smaller loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There are plenty of things that could cause you to steer clear of an individual stock, but relying solely on P/E can be dangerous: https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/03/16/why-the-pe-ratio-might-be-useless.aspx

It is the highest quarter ever across all quarters in terms of revenue. Carnival's revenue tends to be seasonal, and Q3 (June-August) tends to capture the summer vacation crowds in North America and Europe. The previous high was $6.53 Billion in Q3 2019. You can see this on the second graph on this page, which has not been updated for the most recent quarter: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CCL/carnival/revenue

Yes, the cash on hand has dropped considerably. It was $7 billion at the end of Q3 2022, compares to $2.87 billion at 8/31/23. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as that cash is paying down debt or being invested in ships that will one day make money (and technically are brining in ones now in terms of deposits) Q4 may see some further erosion in cash on hand. Depreciation expense for Q4 will be a little over $500 million, but the actual cash spend on new builds is only $267 million for Q4. Carnival is scheduled to repay around $462 million in principal. So that only represents a burn of about $200 million plus or minus the net income/loss. Even a $0.20/share net loss will only be about $260 million, so Carnival should end the year with about $2.4 Billion in cash on hand. They do have a short-term borrowing facility if they need it, but I don't see them needing it. Q1 2024 should be profitable even before adding back depreciation (it was in 2019), and the debt and shipbuilding burdens are similar to Q3 and Q4 2023. Obviously if Q2 and Q3 2024 perform similarly to Q3 2023, that would be over $1 Billion of cash being generated even after making principal and shipbuilding payments.

Fuel hedging makes sense only if you expect to save more than what you are paying in interest on the hedge. Given prime is at 8.5%, Carnival would need at least 10% fuel savings to safely break even, and would need more like 15-20% to see any meaningful net savings. Carnival's fuel expense was $200 Million lower in Q3 2023 than in Q3 2022. Even for the nine months, Carnival's fuel expense is $85 Million lower in FY 2023, even in spite of revenues being up nearly 100%. Even when you factor in the increase Available Lower Berth Days, which are up a little over 10% for the quarter, and about 33% though nine months versus last fiscal year, that is a rather impressive result.

Someone screwed up the link when they made the E-Mail. The 0.0.0.1 indicates an internal resource on the network of whoever composed the E-Mail. What was probably the correct link starts after that.

Just as an example I found: Both of these are 6 night Western Caribbean sailings departing on November 17, 2024 Sprit: Mobile - at sea - at sea - Belize - Cozumel - at sea - Mobile $499 inside, $609 Ocean View, $649 Balcony, $1,399 suite Horizon - Miami - at sea - Ocho Rios - Grand Cayman - Cozumel - at sea - Miami $439 inside, $549 Ocean View, $719 Balcony, $1223 suite Granted Horizon crushes Spirit in terms of average revenue yield because of all of the upcharge categories (Havana, Spa, Deluxe Ocean View, etc.). The port taxes should also be higher on the Horizon sailing because of the extra port. Horizon also more ways to separate you from your money once you're onboard that aren't on the Spirit.

I wonder if Carnival would consider consolidating the Alaska service from Seattle from two smaller ships (Luminosa, Spirit) to one larger ship. I actually think Seattle would be a good option for Firenze, with it doing winters in Long Beach. Panorama would still hold down the 6-8 day Mexican Riviera route, and Radiance would do the shorter cruises year-round out of Long Beach. Luminosa could then stay in Australia year round, or spend the US summer season in Long Beach (in place of Firenze, which would be in Seattle), or if the market supports it, Seattle. Spirit could stay in Mobile year round. I think Mobile needs to re-establish itself as a year-round market before it gets a larger ship, mainly because any larger ship is going to have fewer options for getting from one side of North America to the other.

Miracle's dry dock is scheduled for February 21-April 1, 2025. This pretty much has to be Miracle going to Europe for the spring and summer, with Pride staying in Baltimore.

Yes: Green cruising: Norway's World Heritage fjords are becoming emission-free (businessnorway.com)

Some actual dancing of the ships to report: https://carnival-news.com/2023/09/07/carnival-legend-to-sail-from-san-francisco-in-2025/ It looks like it's between Miracle and Pride for the 2025 Europe season.

A good way in Mobile to show that you are not a local is to pronounce it like "Mobil" (the oil company that merged with Exxon).

The Spirit is a little over 22 years old now. Sunshine is 27 now, which is how old Spirit will be in five years. Sunshine is scheduled to go to drydock in 2025, so Carnival will likely get 32 years out of her. I would expect the same for Spirit, possibly longer. Mobile works because it's a convenient place to put a ship outside of the Alaska season. The Spirit class works well for Alaska since it can transit the older Panama Canal locks and has a very high percentage of balcony cabins A third ship in New Orleans would be limited to short cruises, which potentially doubles short cruise capacity out of New Orleans. Galveston already has Miracle during the Alaska off-season. Luminosa does her off-season in Brisbane. Tampa serves the same purpose with Europe. Carnival might cycle the Spirit class ships between Baltimore, Brisbane, Tampa, Mobile, and Galveston (and maybe even Jacksonville), but I expect all of them to be in the fleet in 2030. Fantasy was originally scheduled to have spent just shy of 6 years in Mobile (2016-2022), I would expect Spirit to have a similar tenure in Mobile. Keep in mind Star Princess in 2025 is the last scheduled new build across all of Carnival Corporation. There are zero ships on order for 2026, and 2027 may wind up the same way based on remarks made during earnings calls. The existing fleet is going to be here for a while.

Spirit was built 10 years later than Ecstasy.

The deal includes the option for another two years: https://www.fox10tv.com/2023/09/05/carnival-set-return-mobile-with-longer-term-commitment/?fbclid=IwAR3Z9EF2IwVA85SogFOIpJ2cqxdrpmOYscjMgS_SFYiaS9acX7-32QUBFI4

Carnival Radiance says hi.

Yes, I would recommend the Mexican Riviera. Rhythms of the Night in Puerto Vallarta is my all-time favorite excursion. The tour of Mazatlan by boat and bus was good as well. Be prepared for cooler weather, especially on the first and last full days of your sailing. The Pacific typically does not get as warm as the Caribbean.

Miracle and Radiance both appear to have just departed Ensenada. Right now Radiance still shows a Monday arrival in Long Beach. Miracle is headed to San Francisco.

I think Victoria and Vancouver may be a bit too far - either that or it might wind up being the only port. Since this is a round trip cruise, they do have to come back to Long Beach unlike most coastal cruises which are one-way. Even at 20 knots you're looking at a little over 2 full days of sailing to get to Canada. Canada also has strict admissibility standards that may preclude some guests from disembarking even if they agree to admit the ship due to the circumstances. I would think Carnival could get the PVSA waiver due to the weather. If Panorama can get around the storm they should be able to go to Mexico after the storm passes so it may not be necessary.

Panorama should be able to turn around in Long Beach tomorrow without issue, but the 8/19 sailing is an issue. It looks like Panorama will have to go further west than normal to get around the storm. Tendering at Cabo may be an issue if the sea is still churned up even after the storm passes. The 8/18 and 8/21 Radiance sailings will likely both be affected. The first sailing may be delayed coming back, the second one will likely be shortened - although the last update I saw from CBS news, the rain may be done in the LA area by Monday morning. Hopefully those currently on Radiance parked their car in a location with good drainage.

I would presume Miracle would be back for the winter of 2025-26, but that won't be released at least until the 2025 Alaska season opens for booking.

Given the trends of the past few years, how many of those people who used to fly to Florida now live in Florida? I would suspect that number is not trivial.

Perhaps it's a good thing that Carnival (Corporation) is winding down its shipbuilding program. Not having a bunch of extra capacity will mute any softening in prices. The ships currently under construction have bookings that already exist for well into 2024 (if not further). If demand cools off too much there may be some more accelerated retirements. The window to dispose of Carnival Paradise may have closed as Paradise is scheduled for drydock this fall, but I would not be surprised to see Sunshine retired at the end of 2024 rather than go to drydock in January 2025.

I would just mention that you already have non-refundable travel plans (no need to go into detail), and provide a date or set of date(s) that you are willing to serve. I had to move mine due to work considerations and wound up getting one of the dates I requested to serve.

I went ahead and booked the plus bundle for my Princess sailing. I figured at 18 months out I will beat at least one increase on the gratuity and Internet. I now get two "casual dining" specialty meals covered. If I take advantage of the fitness classes it would not take much of a bar tab to break even on the cost of the package. The base fare was only slightly more than the Carnival cruises I looked at that week out of Miami and Port Canaveral. Officially I have an obstructed balcony because it has a metal outer wall instead of glass but due to its location its location it is actually larger than normal.