At Sea At Peace

That's a great one! For a friend ~

Although it's been going on all day and I linked and posted screenshots of this morning to a little after noon, here's a look at the current 'window' of cancellations In/Out FLL for those coming in for Port Everglades cruises and for those on current cruises (Odyssey and Harmony, Friday and Saturday returns). If you can, it would seem to make sense to try to rebook on another airline until SW gets rebooted and back to normal. GLTA Link - toggle between departures and arrivals. https://www.flightview.com/airport/FLL-Ft_Lauderdale-FL/departures Incoming ~ Early evening Departing ~ through 8:20PM

Well they formally announced what the rumors (they are 'rebooting' everything, 2/3rds reduction, reset planes, pilots and crew and give a breather to land-based staff and crew that have tens of thousands of pieces of luggage to deal with) have been. Sort of like everything else; unplug it, wait and then plug it back in. 🙄 Southwest Airlines CEO Says More Cancellations Ahead as Airline Tries to Recover Carrier’s current plan is to keep its announced flight cuts in place through Thursday; some two-thirds of its flights were canceled Tuesday https://www.wsj.com/articles/southwests-troubles-mount-as-airline-scraps-more-than-half-its-flights-11672084678?mod=hp_lead_pos1 WSJ paywall, but you'll get the gist. I hope people on board these RCCL ships headed back into FLL are being updated by the Captain or CD about what is going on (I have no idea). The 'ripple effect' on the Friday, Saturday and Sunday disembarkation / embarkations at Port Everglades could still be seriously impacted.

Good points. We fly SW when we can because W flies free companion pass and our summer airport MHT in NH has SW as an anchor there. We're working on Jet Blue. We always to Jet Blue if available on trips longer out of BOS or FLL or AUS. I'm reading on FB that the cruise line insurer for RCCL is giving some weird denials? Hearsay. "Doesn't count pilot not showing up." I have no idea if such is true. The SW cost to settle all of this must be massive, 400,000 per day and, like you pointed out, beyond the flights it's hotels, meals, lost luggage and missed cruises. I read their runways were frozen even when treated, as well in Denver. Now, this will come as a surprise (or not) to many. These runways are not heated; however, in Berlin NH (up 'nawth quite a bit) they get a freaking $19.5 MILLION Federal Grant to HEAT THE DOWNTOWN WALKWAYS AND STREETS AND PARKING LOTS!!! https://www.conwaydailysun.com/berlin_sun/news/local/berlin-awarded-19-5-million-grant-for-downtown-snowmelt-system/article_b2f67a26-18bd-11ed-a98a-8be3b0dc0abb.html

Yep, Jet Blue had a similar, but not so widespread, period a bit ago. SW owns most of these. Hearsay from the Gate and flight crew of our cancellation. Their "systems" (communication and plane and crew scheduling) had completely 'melted down. They said, and confirmed in WSJ article, that pilots where on HOLD for 4 hours trying to get assignments. Our flight crew, with plane at gate, needed 1 more steward. From another SW plane came a BWI based stewardess to fill the gap. They couldn't communicate with Love Field (Dallas?) to get the okay (per the Gate and Crew) live. I got my notice of departure changed to 1:32PM at 3:35PM! During the nights, I got three separate emails after midnight that my fly was now cancelled! 🤣

Yep, good point. While at the Gate yesterday for 5-6 hours, near the end before they did the formal announcement (kind of knew from the news and departure board starting dropping (literally removing) flights, some traveling families were trying to do the same and ran into the same issue. They even tried shorter flights from FL all the way up to BWI to then get a rental to take back to New England. They left for a BOS flight on another airline without their cruise luggage for their family. It was going to BWI and connecting to NH. I guess they'll get a call or email? They were also hoping that BOS rental car centers would be open.

A little update today on SW at FLL for those coming in early for Odyssey and Harmony at weeks end. Inbound Cancellations - Through 12:50PM (i.e., so far) - Link in case. 😯 https://www.flightview.com/airport/FLL-Ft_Lauderdale-FL/arrivals Outbound Cancellations - Through 2:10PM (i.e., so far) - Link in case. 😯 https://www.flightview.com/airport/FLL-Ft_Lauderdale-FL/departures

Good point, never thought of that. There will definitely be a measurable # of no shows / couldn't get there openings.

Crazy it is (Yoda). I normally don't post such but I've been flying for almost 50 years, we're real savvy, and I've never seen anything like what I've seen at FLL in my life, or, met people whose plans were so unraveled they were just sitting on the floor in a daze. In FLL, when the big RCCL ships come and go in a turnaround, we all avoid FLL airport like the plague. I just can't see how they can put the genie back in the bottle when they were already booked through the week after NYs anyway. I see concern more for those on the ships currently as we don't usually stay online that much. UBER also swamped. Took me 1.5 hours to get a Uber LUX. The 'traffic' was nasty with everyone exiting the Terminal at the same time.

Southwest Airlines continues canceling flights as New Year holiday approaches Forrest Brown, Karla Cripps and Barry Neild, CNN • Updated 27th December 2022 https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/southwest-flight-cancellations-winter-storm-tuesday/index.html Southwest Airlines: Customers can't rebook flights until after New Year's Day BY OLIVIA LEACH DECEMBER 27, 2022 / 6:16 AM / CBS DFW https://www.cbsnews.com/dfw/news/southwest-airlines-customers-cant-rebook-flights-until-after-new-years-day/ Thousands of Canceled Flights Upend Travel Plans Across U.S. Most of the disruption was on Southwest Airlines, which had called off more than 60 percent of its flights by Tuesday morning. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/27/us/southwest-flights-canceled-travel.html

Well, for those on these Royal Caribbean ships down in the warm weather (not so here in FLL) and enjoying the sun, sea and all else cruising, please pay attention to the massive, massive mess going on with SW flights (no need to link articles, just Goggle), including here at FLL airport. Same to those hoping to get on the next Royal cruises on these ships from Port Everglades. 60%-70% SW flights In/Out cancelled Monday and today, Tuesday. Approximately 300,000-400,000 passengers per day with NO RE-BOOKING even allowed To/From some US airports until after December 31, 2022. SW announced this will continue through the weekend. I've personally been at FLL airport several time for 5-10 hours and witnessed these on my continuously cancelled flights. There are thousands of people "not coming" and "not leaving" the airport for there planned cruises. Many I met left FLL by car or alternate airline to get anywhere close to home. Thousands stayed on the floor of the gate. Without their luggage even. The luggage is piled between all of the circulating belts. Roped off by SW personnel. Luggage is even on planes, some for 24+ hours. The SW pilots at FLL and crew could not even make contact with Love Field HQ and were on hold for HOURS. SO PLAN AHEAD 1. Beat the crowd to find an alternative airline and flight - To/From 2. Beat the crowd to find a hotel if (1) is not successful - To/From 3. Really think twice about checking your luggage into a SW flight when you get there and assess. 4. Get everything you really need into your carry on. We've successfully got ONE family member in the air (non SW) today to Dulles (no BWI or DCA available). We're successfully hoping the ONE we got for me (non SW) tomorrow to DCA makes it. I haven't seen my #3 grandsons 12/28 birthday since 2019! GLTA

Oh well, looks like the thread has taken the turn from CCL's price increase issues to an MSC to-and-fro. CCL is raising prices because it HAS to, by a lot, as much as 75% to break even without interest. It's not anything they did, it was a 100-year pandemic. It's leveraged up to the bridge and it appears that the bigger they are . . . . MSC is privately owned and, as an FYI, by an owner in a pandemic boom industry that saw the top fleets earn TENS of billions of dollars. So, my $0.02 worth ~ MSC ~ ~ did not scrap any ships during the pandemic. ~ did not delay or cancel any newbuilds, including the entire new luxury Explora Journeys line. ~ did add a new port, New York, a quaint 'little' place that is/was its top source US customer passenger market without a ship even being there, starting April 2023 with Meraviglia. ~ did add two new ships. ~ did continue, unabated during the pandemic, work on its new Miami terminal (on line end of 2023). ~ did not change course from being an 'international line' versus the implied false assertion that it wanted and wants the 'low end US/North American market' from CCL. ~ only plans target demographics of 60% US/North American on New York based cruises and continuation of 50% US/North American on Florida port cruises.

Yes, they are private. Yes, they have been poaching customers from other line primarily in US ports and markets and yes they were using pricing to accomplish such. We were lured away (and loved it) from the Haven and Royal/Celebrity Suites to MSC Yacht Club on all US port-based ships for years before 'the word got out' and they started to raise their prices (and at almost 60% less than the offers we are looking at for early next year). If need be, their approach is quite sustainable also. It's nice to have a rich parent that is a behemoth in an industry that is nondiscretionary. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-container-shippings-historic-boom-funded-a-2b-cruise-bailout How container shipping’s historic boom funded a $2B cruise bailout MSC’s shipping windfall allowed for lifeline to its cruise business Greg Miller ·Friday, March 11, 2022

All on point. That is why I continue to see CCL in a really tough situation. What the 'need' to do and 'have' to do is inconsistent with 'what they are' and 'have been' and the market niche's that they have mastered pre-pandemic.

CCL simply doesn't have a choice but to raise cruise fares, on board item fares and cut costs. No choice.

IMO, they just don't have the reservation system up to the task of selecting VIBE and SPA passes as part of the booking system; intentional or unintentional. We would have sailed numerous NCL ships but were not able to do such and were always told (TA, NCL phone or chat) that we had to book the cruise first, then wait for the open to book time period, and see if VIBE and SPA passes were available. We've never got a representative who could access the specific cruise and see if such were already sold out. Also, we certainly understand they want to capture the booking first and foremost, and that works for them at this time, but for us these two amenities are decision critical (specifically for us). As a result, we just don't book NCL.

The better terms were bought with the highest of security, massive dilution that is also not fixed. boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2851334-general-stock-market-chatter/page/22/#comment-64313083 Yep. The bigger they are (CCL) the more debt taken. Equity has little net book value at all out for many, many years.

Totally agree. We tried MSC ahead of the 'curve and that was our thoughts. We were getting B2B YC staterooms for 2-3 years, from Divina to Seaside to Meraviglia, for a third, then half of the NCL Haven. Totally awesome value. We've found their Italian and European based staff above the industry average, and as they grow they've had to go to the 'traditional waters' used by other lines. Yep, that is still a real challenge, whether online or on-the-phone, with or without a travel agent. Speaking of travel agents, they need to specifically build that relationship.

1. The concept of net cash excluding customer deposits is based on the Cash balance of $7.071 billion; which includes Customer deposits of $4.470 billion, result in net cash of $2.54 billion. This is at a POINT in time. 2. CCL is not cash flow positive for the quarter or YTD. Still a decrease of $1.87 billion for the 9-months ended. That was aided by the issuance proceeds of long term debt of $3.334 billion and common stock of $1.180 billion. This is for a PERIOD of time. Including the prior period, their issuance of DEBT as a 'financing activity' is a + as Proceeds of debt issuance. Cash flow consists of 3 components ~ Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities, Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities and Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities.

Just to add some comparative data. Look at the debt levels, customer cash deposits and cruise line noncustomer cash 2019 versus September 30, 2022. Even though their "use of customer cash" has decreased, the customer cash 'risk position' is now BEHIND $24.4 billion more in CCL debt, $14.93 billion in RCL debt and $7.85 billion in NCL debt.

Maybe they do? https://cruiseradio.net/msc-cruises-record-number-of-bookings/ MSC Cruises Sees Record Number Of Bookings In October By Sarah Bretz November 9, 2022

That is certainly true. However, they weren't buried in tens of billions of debt back then, putting such customer's deposits at a relatively significantly much higher risk. As with the 2008 housing and mortgage mess, we learned that it probably wasn't a good idea to sell houses and finance them to buyers who couldn't afford them. At this point, I'd be in favor of the cruise line customer deposits be segregated from operating accounts until used and protected for the customers from creditors. Again, your point is correct.

Well, as expected, 'we loss less than we could have. 😅 Also, bookings in 2023 look so good, so good. 😇 Liquidity ~ "the Company’s liquidity was approximately $2.2 billion, consisting of cash and cash equivalents of $1.2 billion and a $1 billion undrawn commitment." So, let's take a look-see at that considering the following ~ "As of September 30, 2022, the Company’s advance ticket sales balance, including the long-term portion, was $2.5 billion." So, of the "Company's advance ticket sales;" i.e., Customer$ Money 😉 in the amount of $2.5 billion, we've already spent $1.3 billion. 😲

For CCL, to penny stock levels after a Petition filing? I know I sound like my own echo 🙄 but their debt (other than the most senior, secured) is openly trading with yield rates (effective interest) approaching 20%. 😲 Sellers are taking 'debt haircuts' to get out. 😨 By comparison, RCL debtholders are not experiencing the same level or magnitude of loss of value on debt investments.

Thanks. These are the cream (senior guaranteed and senior secured; i.e., securitized, collateralized) of the debt crop for RCL, 2-3% less than the previous $1.25Bs senior unsecured recently. A long time ago @BermudaBound2014 projected that RCL might be the one with the best chance to survive. Their Morgan Stanley backstopping of 2023 debt replacement was a key factor. The debt market seems to agree. In order, RCL yields the lowest, NCL noticeably behind and CCL pretty much 'towel throwing' time.