Spence55

Saga plc remains a mess. The share price fell yesterday by almost 4%. The cruise division was the best performer, with underlying profits before tax of £35.5 million. That was to be expected given the general demand for cruising, and an influx of disillusioned former P&O customers. It’s significant that there have been no Director share purchases since October 2022. They have of course been awarded free ‘incentive’ shares. There are numerous metrics to assess a company. If we view the cruise divisions underlying PBT in isolation and apply a generous multiple, its vale still falls well short of the company’s net debt. As for the entirety of the company, the markets rarely get it wrong. We’ve removed Saga shares from our spreadsheet. A considerable loss can be crystallised at a future date to set against chargeable gains.

What is the EH 5% please?

W Who knows? It wouid be an interesting development if true. The latest report attributed EBITDA of £40 million per ship. Unfortunately for shareholders the ‘I’ stands for interest payable on debt. But if the board wants to realise value, the cruise business would be a logical acquisition for one of the bigger players seeking to increase market share.

That’s a pretty sweeping statement without reference to a source. Are you saying NCL is purchasing the ships and the cruise business?

I’ve read elsewhere that standard cabins on Deck E with full discount are around £250 pp per day. So a full (undiscounted) price of £770 per couple per day. That seems to be a bit of a price hike for some rather uninspiring itineraries. It looks like SAGA are picking over what’s left after the big players have booked their ports of call.

I’m not too surprised that Saga is later than other companies in releasing its brochure. There’s a huge demand for cruises across the world, and the big players are better placed to pay high port fees. Saga is a small player with financial issues, and might be missing out on some of the better options. For instance this Spring’s Adriatic cruise is not calling at Venice (Marghera) but Trieste. Saga also seems to have an increasing number of Gibraltar calls, again a cheap option. Add in abandoning Southampton for Portsmouth, to ‘save shed loads of cash’ I heard, and I think it’s safe to conclude the lateness in finalising itineraries could be down own to waiting to see what’s available after the big players have booked their ports of call.

I suspect the market scepticism is justified. The 52 -wk high was £1.91 nearly a year ago. The latest price being £1.13. Net debt stands at over £711m as opposed to £657m in Sept 23, dwarfing the market capitalisation of £161m. There has been some speculative investment from the middle east, but investors will have noted potential issues re bond repayments, with 2026 a big year in that respect. The insurance side is a huge problem, with a big drop in policies sold and profitability an ongoing issue. Any sale and leaseback of the ships will obviously solve the debt issue, but will mean higher costs. In all its a dog’s dinner of a company, and a dog of an investment.m

Are you saying SAGA has issued letters for those with missed port insurance on the basis that two calls were missed following a three day weather delay? But they’ve failed to mention that one day out of the three was due to onboard technical issues and not the weather? If so, so much for SAGA values.

There’s no consistency in Saga’s response to these things. Prior to your cruise the SoA was held in Falmouth for three days or so to miss the storm that the SoD was unwisely sailed into. The SoA itinerary was completely altered, but all passengers were kept out of danger. Those on SoA had no claim as Saga acted responsibly, but were all given a 25% refund. That was probably a PR exercise given the bad publicity Saga was getting at the time. Personally I believe the company is not interested in individuals who have the temerity to complain. As long as they are getting good feedback from 80% or so of passengers, and bookings are healthy, legitimate complaints will be met with lofty disdain. Of course the first rule of Saga club is never criticise Saga.

Well done Windsurfboy for persisting despite the company's Smugness And General Arrogance.

Alchymist’s comments very much echo our recent experiences with Saga. The quality of the food has definitely fallen and service both in the restaurants and bars is not up to previous excellent standards. Indeed, given Saga prices we won’t be using them again for some considerable time, as we no longer consider them to offer value for money. The shared transport can be a thoroughly miserable and drawn out experience, and the premium for a private car is extortionate. The friendliness of the cabin crew and most of the waiters is the company’s main strength, and I’m sure they are a big reason for much of the brand loyalty.