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HappyInVan

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About HappyInVan

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    Cool Cruiser

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    Vancouver
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    Photography

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  1. Cruise to nowhere? Looks like mos Americans are going nowhere. "Of 1,800 respondents to a recent Jefferies survey, 60% are planning on staying home this summer, up from 52% from the last reading in May. Of the group planning to go anywhere, 75% expect to drive, against 60% in May. Those who say they are going camping now number 3%. Overall, the survey reflects an “increasing fear of heading out to shop or enjoy entertainment, a sharp drop in expected travel and less optimism around a 2020 return to work,” Jefferies researchers said in a note." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/real-time-data-is-showing-that-the-coronavirus-is-causing-widespread-economic-damage.html "Wearing masks is now the most important thing for the economy, Fed’s Kaplan says" https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/wearing-masks-is-now-the-most-important-thing-for-the-economy-feds-kaplan-says.html
  2. Don't complain about your masks. What about the medics working here. "‘It’s a war zone’: Tents mounted in Imperial County hospital parking lot to handle surging COVID-19 cases" https://ktla.com/news/california/its-a-war-zone-tents-mounted-in-imperial-county-hospital-parking-lot-to-handle-surging-covid-19-cases/
  3. Antorcha is a smart guy from the Boston Consulting Group. Likely that there will be major changes. Stay tuned.
  4. Could the doctors be right? Distancing is necessary and masks save lives! "More than 40 Florida hospitals in multiple counties across the state have maxed out their ICU capacity or are close to running out of intensive care beds, according to the state’s Agency for Health Care Administration." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/coronavirus-strains-florida-health-system-as-some-hospitals-run-out-of-icu-beds-in-largest-counties.html
  5. The problem with this debate is that on one side are the people who depend on data/logic, led by medical professionals and scientists. On the other side are the people with bright ideas but are analytically challenged. Take this fallacy that you can generate herd immunity by infecting the young. In the real world, animals achieve herd immunity by allowing the weak and vulnerable to die. The strong and immune survive to pass on their genes. That is natural selection. I can see no evidence to support your POV. You can criticize the mainstream consensus, but people are dying every day.
  6. Let's look at the numbers. China screened the entire population of Beijing (pop 10m) to discover a couple of hundred cases. Japan never locked down. Currently, a lot of concern over a hundred cases per day. Looks to me like masks work very well. Toronto is mandating masks when indoor in public places. Same as Texas. They've realized that unchecked epidemic will lead to economic collapse. Perhaps, even disruption of essential services. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/texas-issues-state-wide-order-requiring-face-coverings.html There is simply no alternative to masks if we are to return to 'normal' public life. BTW, the herd immunity idea is dead as a dodo. In Sweden, they're going to change direction. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-sweden-inquiry-cases-084408740.html In Georgia, antibody tests are only 5.2% positive. Arizona only 3.4%, Florida 4%. Most people (young and old) will not allow themselves to get infected. Ask yourself this. Why aren't you infected yet?
  7. Ohhh! There's not enough death in America? I'm sure that you are aware that the state reports are undercounted over the weekend? Anyway, the truth is that the covid death toll is under-reported. "... The 781,000 total deaths in the U.S. in the three months through May 30 were nearly 19% higher than what would normally be expected, the study said... The researchers noted the gap between the reported coronavirus deaths and the excess deaths varied by states. For example, California reported 4,046 Covid-19 deaths and 6,800 excess deaths, leaving 41% of the excess deaths unattributed to Covid-19 they said. Texas and Arizona had wider gaps, with roughly 55% and 53%, respectively, of excess deaths unattributed to Covid-19." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/official-us-coronavirus-death-toll-is-a-substantial-undercount-of-actual-tally-new-yale-study-finds.html Yes, I would only cruise on a ship with social distancing. To do otherwise would be the equivalent of Russian roulette; that is suicide.
  8. The problem with BC was that our Provincial Health Officer had no faith in the results from testing. Said that there were too many false negatives. So, we started off by only testing symptomatic returning travelers and their contacts. That works in small numbers when backed by a clinical examination. Field Marshal Moltke the Elder "no plan survives contact with the enemy" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmuth_von_Moltke_the_Elder Oops! Covid infiltrated the care/retirements homes! So, she directed the testing program at the vulnerable populations and employees. Without enough tests, the symptomatic general public was told to rest at home. No need for a test if you recover. Report to the hospital if you can't breath! At the time, it wasn't understood how quickly that patients could slip away. So, we lost a couple of guys who tried to tough it out at home. The advantage of a high test capacity is that you have reserves you can commit as the fight progresses. Cover returning travelers, as well as care homes. You do many tests in order to gain information about the spread and penetration of the disease, even if there are many false negatives. With enough tests you can get ahead of the disease, by confirming infections before they become infectious or symptomatic. Fortunately, our surge was just a puddle (see graph below). I'm not a medical person, and that's my take on the matter.
  9. Here's a positive example for our American friends to follow. British Columbia has a seventh of Canada's population. But, only 3% of the confirmed cases, and only 2% of the deaths. How was it possible when it has a huge Asian population? No miracles here. We are not a Teutonic model of deep organization and preparation. Rather, our residents pulled together like soldiers. This was a positive precondition. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/team-of-rivals-united-front-1.5570696 The government allowed the Provincial Health Officer to be the public face, and lead the campaign. The Premier was there to announce the lockdown and the reopening. The health minister worked behind the scenes, and credit must go to him for the strategic wins. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/long-term-care-crisis-covid19-pandemic-1.5589097 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-recovery-stage-1.5586557 The Provincial Health Officer is widely admired and trusted. That said, she had focused too much on the hospital program. Displayed signs of inflexibility, and had to be overruled by the health minister. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-coronavirus-metro-vancouver-hospital-icu-death-rate-1.5589695 Moreover, BC has only done a modest amount of testing. So, we were fortunate that our residents didn't mess it up. The interesting point is that the government did not impose shelter-in-place. Bars, salons, gyms and parks were closed. Factories and warehouses continued to operate. Offices did close their doors to the public. The courts were closed. Most retail shops closed themselves and did not reopen till June. The media provided information without gratuitous political editorials. The public was asked to avoid non-essential movement, and social distance. This they did like champions. The Premier didn't take credit for our success. Everyone had a part to play, and they didn't trip over each other. Actually, I was really surprised by how smoothly it went. Our residents are known to be independent minded and prone to demonstrations. Remember this important point. No one has a perfect game. What matters is how you recover from your mistakes. Hopefully, we will soon join our American friends on the cruise ships.
  10. I would rather listen to DR Fauci and colleagues for their experience and training, and ignore the opinionated civilians. You may not be concerned about the current mortality rate, but deaths lag infection and hospitalization. The more infected people, the more likely for seniors to get infected. Who's the server in the restaurant? The grocery clerk who bumps into you? Are they wearing masks? If I wasn't concerned about American lives, I would be laughing and breaking out the popcorn. Fix your problem, save your economy and let's get the ships sailing again.
  11. I see a lot of concern about the loss of life. And, we are annoyed that our cruises are cancelled. Hope that FL can fix the problem. Do you know what the positive test rate is? A month ago, the positive test rate was 3%. Today, it is at the 14% level. Is that alarming? What are the chances that cruise ships can depart in 2020?
  12. The results speak for themselves. I'm glad that the border is CLOSED!
  13. USA government 'encourages' use of mask on planes. Quite likely that cruise pax will also have to wear on board. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/trump-administration-issues-guidelines-for-air-travel-stops-short-of-social-distancing-onboard.html
  14. Here's useful details from CNBC... "On June 11, the EU published a four-part checklist that set forth “objective criteria” to create a “common list” of countries to lift travel restrictions into the EU and Schengen Area countries." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/why-americans-wont-be-traveling-to-europe-anytime-soon.html
  15. What's the point of going half way? You might as well have no mitigation measures. You'll have herd immunity some time in 2025. Then, the borders can reopen. In Arizona, they're reimposing some restrictions when their ICU beds are only at 89% capacity. They should wait until it's 100% capacity. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/arizona-reports-record-spike-in-new-coronavirus-cases-and-deaths-ahead-of-pences-visit.html Then, the medical staff can walk away... https://ca.news.yahoo.com/im-health-care-worker-know-152320306.html
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