grandgeezer

If actually knowing something, not speculation or opinions, there would be very few posts on any of the boards.

The other day I watch “the Donald’s press conference, and his guru of infectious diseases said that travel would be one of the last things that would be returning to anything close to normal. If that is true, based on what is going on now, my guess would be early August at the earliest. I also don’t hold much hope for Europe this year. If it does resume, the itineraries will be drastically changed.

The actual agreement for the cruise is between the customer and the cruise line, the travel agent is just the middle man. They fulfilled their responsibilities and should be reimbursed for their time. Maybe the cruise line should pay it.

Should they? Probably, will they, not a chance. Not knowing how many people will be using their fccs for payment, it's probably their biggest source of fresh cash coming in. Use the money worry about the consequences down the road now.

You better hope none of them go bankrupt, even for selfish reasons. If they do, with the RCL brand being one of the only games in town, what do you think will happen to pricing and availability? Two of my favorite phrases that pop up when anybody mentions pricing going up, "supply and demand, and dynamic pricing.

If and when cruising starts back up, there will be a new normal, things will not be like it was before the shutdown.

In this day of uncertainty, free is too much.

Nobody knows for sure. Look what's happening in Europe, especially Italy and Spain. I'm not sure with what's happening in the other countries. If Spain and Italy stay closed to tourists, where else is there to go as an alternative? Extra sea days isn't an option, at least for us. We've been there six times in the last ten years and what brings us back, not the cruise ship life.

On my last cruise I got $1,100 in refundable obc, that I took home, from a TA.That's over and above what I got from Celebrity. I've been with them for years and will continue to use them if I decide to cruise again after this mess calms down. Yes they do charge a service fee, but only for cancelled cruises, and I support that. They work for free by giving you a quote and answering your question, before and after booking. I didn't work for free, at my place of employment and I suppose many of you haven't either. These people have financial responsibilities, and I'm sure their cut of the commission, like other service jobs, is a big percentage of their compensation. If the owner wants to wave their cut fine, if not live with it. I assumed you knew about these penalties when you booked through them and now you don't want to abide by it??

Lot’s of whose cash on hand? I seem to remember a $2.2 billion loan they have to pay back next March. Don’t they still have all of the money of the people that took the fcc option with the Cruise with Confidence program? If I’m not mistaken a whole bunch of the cruises that was booked recently, and in the future, will be financed with these IOUs. Who knows how long this virus will hang around, if it’s months, more fccs. When it starts back up there are an unknown number of cruisers who will either not come back, not come back until they are sure the crises has past, and people who won’t cruise as much. Not everybody can afford to cruise and with the financial hit just about everybody took, adding a bunch of new cruisers anytime soon. Time is not on their side. As far as Mexico ic concerned, I don’t think the main cause of them leaving were the drug wars, I think it was the final straw and a good excuse to exit gracefully. I think there was too much competition and not a whole lot of options as far as ports. It was all about money, they could make more elsewhere. We did the Mexican Rivera nine times, Hawaii three times and the west coastal three times and were bored. We moved on and never went back.

And besides, where would you “park” one of these huge Oasis class ships for months or years? Also, if I read correctly, you just can’t park these ships and let them sit idle for months, or maybe even years. Buying the ships might not be too bad, but you have to build your business from the ground up, that won’t happen overnight.

Old posts are meaningless, people change their mind. It's what you say now. Still optimistic now? It might go a long way with other people getting on your bandwagon, who knows, maybe even me. After checking the news today, there was nothing to alter my opinion. "Plan for the worst, hope for the best".

They better be sailing by August or they are toast. They got a ton of debt and very little new cash coming in. They are surviving on the money they brought in for all the cruises that have been cancelled and replaced most of the money with fccs to the people that actually thought it was a good deal. If and when things pick up a good share of it will be paid for with the fccs, robbing Peter to pay Paul. If you don’t like the pessimistic attitude try something different like giving people actual reasons to be optimistic. I’ve seen 0 in your post.

I somewhat agree with the two prognosticators about the cruise lines and somewhat the hotel industry, but not the airlines. The airlines are essential as the world gets more global, government will do whatever they can to keep them afloat. Hotels have at least got some viable collateral to get low cost loans to tide them over plus if they are a U.S company the government will probably help them out. Bankruptcy, in some cases is not a death sustenance. What has the cruise lines got going for themselves? They are hemorrhaging cash and very little new cash coming in, deeply in debt and very few assets that would be attractive as collateral to get additional loans. Billions and billions of dollars in ships and what good are they as collateral? What would a financial institution do with a cruise ship, with no possible buyers? Where would they dock it? It also appears that it takes a lot of money just to keep it serviceable. If they end up defaulting on that $2.2 billion loan do next March, their done. Unless the current lender extends it with another cash transfusion, I don't see many other options except maybe a ***** account. Add in the fact that things are getting worse, rather than better, and the outlook isn't very rosy. My guess, and again it's only a guess, I would say middle of July at the earliest. And when the start up, where will they go and how will you get there or home if you have to fly? If Alaska starts back up in July, what happens if Canada doesn't open up their ports such as Victoria and Vancouver. Europe, with the way things are currently I wouldn't expect any ports available in Italy and Spain this season. How do you replace them, more sea days? Different ports, I'm not sure what other countries will accept you. The cruising experience: If you think nothing will have changed, besides steps taken to keep all the viruses in check, you'll be in for a surprise. They're in a tough situation, if they maintain the current pricing or raise it, they will probably scare some people off, if they lower it they won't be able to meet their financial obligations. Consistently full ships are a long way away. The last I saw, they were around 106% of capacity. Besides the new ships, all they can do is put more people in the cabins designed for more, are you willing add strangers to your cabin? According to a poll, either on this site or RCL's, there are a lot more people who say they will cruise less, or not at all than those who said they would cruise more. The doctor's signoff of people over 70: Don't underestimate this, it might not make a big difference on the ships especially designed to attract a younger crowd but it will on the others. We were on the Equinox in August and MSC Seaside in October, and I bet the average age of the passengers dropped 15 years. And lastly, there are a lot more people that just can't afford it and more people are just plain scared away. And if you jump back to cruising too early, remember what happened to the passengers on the Eclipse and HAL Zaandam. The Eclipse is safetly in San Diego, finally. The Zaadaam was finally let through the canal but according to this mornings news, the governor of Florida doesn't want them. I don't really care how this post is received, I stated the reasons for my pessimism, right or wrong. Do I want the cruise lines to got out of business? Absolutely not, there are so many people besides the lines, affected. But wishing, hoping, having a positive attitude makes no difference.

I see the light at the end of the tunnel, it's a fully loaded freight train heading right at us.