Hurricane Irma Discussion Here

Will post forecast updates, links to impact reports, disaster relief, and such here.

Feel free to post news of itinerary changes, questions and concerns for discussion too.

Irma became Category 5 this morning (Tuesday Sep. 5) and is on a course for possible devastating impact to

Nevis

St. Maarten/St. Martin and Anguilla

BVI especially Anegada

USVI St. Thomas & St. John

Turks & Caicos

Forecast to drop to Categoryt 4 with potential serious impact also for

Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques

Bahamas

Cuba

And then anywhere in South Florida, at the moment, The Keys are at risk.

A hurricane this powerful has never been recorded in the Atlantic basin before. I personally was to visit St. Thomas in 1995 when Luis and Marilyn hit. We avoided travel, but went there 6 months later and were dismayed at the continuing struggle. Hope everyone stays safe.

A very good source of storm windfield, path and islands impacted:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/

You can read firsthand reports from the islands (as long as they can) here:

http://stormcarib.com/

And these are good sources of news:

http://stthomassource.com/

http://www.caricom.org/

And here is the disaster relief agency that is a consortium of island nations:

http://www.cdema.org/

Their latest update:

http://www.cdema.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=frontpage&Itemid=1

On a personal note:

I was on the Breakaway sailing last October that did not make it to Bermuda. Instead we visited Port Canaveral and Nassau for short visits after both ports had also been hit by the storms and were still damaged and cleaning up. We made the best of it, but I am still critical of NCL for the way it was communicated... or rather, not communicated. Right up until boarding they said "everything is still on plan, no changes" which falsely reassured most people. I shook my head... I knew the first storm was sweeping up the coast and the second storm was right on target for Bermuda. It was after we were all aboard they announced we would overnight in NY, and re-plan the trip. The next day they announced the two ports. The stop in Nassau was 3-9pm but almost no excursions and most shops closed up at 5 or 6. At least we like the ship!

So we are now booked for Breakaway again, December 3, 12 days and 6 ports. And all 6 ports are in the path. San Juan, I think, will be least affected. St. Thomas, St. Kitts and Antigua will suffer some but recover in time. I am worried for Tortola and St. Maarten, though, both could see the worst of this storm.

There are numerous sources for the latest model runs, but https://www.tropicaltidbits.com seems to have them up pretty quickly upon release.

The guy who runs it (Ph.D. student at FSU studying tropical meteorology) also does an informative video each evening covering the various forces that are impacting/could impact the course of the storm.

Also http://www.nhc.noaa.gov for official advisories and very good forecasts out of five days.

Current GFS model is showing a run up right up the east coast of FL. Waiting on the 1200Z Euro model to see what they think is happening. The very slight drift of predictions eastward is a positive for FL, but still would be a massive hit unless it moves further east.

Supposed to sail Friday out of Miami. Here for updates. Waiting to see what NCL has to say in about twenty minutes.

There are numerous sources for the latest model runs, but https://www.tropicaltidbits.com seems to have them up pretty quickly upon release.

 

The guy who runs it (Ph.D. student at FSU studying tropical meteorology) also does an informative video each evening covering the various forces that are impacting/could impact the course of the storm.

 

Also http://www.nhc.noaa.gov for official advisories and very good forecasts out of five days.

 

Current GFS model is showing a run up right up the east coast of FL. Waiting on the 1200Z Euro model to see what they think is happening. The very slight drift of predictions eastward is a positive for FL, but still would be a massive hit unless it moves further east.

Nice site, added to my Hurricane toolbox. Where are you seeing a GFS model that goes up the east coast? Model convergence of course is showing passing over the Keys and into the Gulf.

Seeing reports that RCCL has cancelled two cruises. These are two 3 day cruises to the Bahamas, leaving from Miami and Port Canaveral. NCL has the Sky doing the same thing from Miami Sep. 8. I think there are just no other options for safe travel for ships with 3 day itineraries.

Canceled by RCCL:

**Enchantment of the Seas: September 8 Bahamas cruise**

**Majesty of the Seas: September 8 Bahamas cruise**

Nice site, added to my Hurricane toolbox. Where are you seeing a GFS model that goes up the east coast? Model convergence of course is showing passing over the Keys and into the Gulf.

Yeah it's interesting that GFS and Euro (ECMWF) are showing a big north turn while most of the other models are showing it continuing further west. Of course, the GFS and the Euro model are the most accurate over the last decade or so.

It's going to be really interesting to see how the NHC 3 and 5 day forecasts evolve given somewhat conflicting models.

We are on the Carnival Fascination scheduled to depart from San Juan on 9/17. I know the storm should be well past by then but worried about flying into PR! Praying for minimal damage and the safety of everyone!

On a personal note:

 

I was on the Breakaway sailing last October that did not make it to Bermuda. Instead we visited Port Canaveral and Nassau for short visits after both ports had also been hit by the storms and were still damaged and cleaning up. We made the best of it, but I am still critical of NCL for the way it was communicated... or rather, not communicated. Right up until boarding they said "everything is still on plan, no changes" which falsely reassured most people. I shook my head... I knew the first storm was sweeping up the coast and the second storm was right on target for Bermuda. It was after we were all aboard they announced we would overnight in NY, and re-plan the trip. The next day they announced the two ports. The stop in Nassau was 3-9pm but almost no excursions and most shops closed up at 5 or 6. At least we like the ship!

We were on the same cruise. NCL withheld information until everyone was on board and then told us at muster drill. $200 OBC/cabin. I am still mad about that.

Round-up of all of the latest models:GFS (NOAA global model): Mainland landfall Miami Sunday, up the coast as far as West Palm Beach and then right along the coast. Landfall again at Savannah Monday. Close enough though that coastal cities would likely get Cat 4/5 effects.

Euro (ECMWF): Still pushing out their 1200Z model.

CMC (Canadian met): Westernmost prediction, North into the Gulf and landfall around Panama City as a Cat 2.

HMON (NOAA non-hydrostatic model, replaces the GFDL model which was frequently wrong): Touches mainland FL at West Palm Beach mid-day Sunday and then back offshore East.

HWRF mode (another NOAA model intended to have better micro-scale track and intensity forecasts over short time periods): Cuba Saturday morning and back over water Sunday morning west of Key West as just a Cat 3.

So still lots of uncertainty and time for things to evolve. In the short run it looks like interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba will be key to how intense this thing is by the time it reaches mainland U.S.

Waiting to see what happens for our Oct 1 cruise on the Fascination. Lots of our ports will be affected.

We are on the Carnival Fascination scheduled to depart from San Juan on 9/17. I know the storm should be well past by then but worried about flying into PR! Praying for minimal damage and the safety of everyone!

So far it's good news for you. PR is well south of the path. The Airport will close a day before and re-open as soon as they can, which will be within hours or a few days after the storm passes. The port is very protected and may see 3-5' rise in water but it will not be battered with waves. I only see a problem for you if the storm goes closer to San Juan than the present forecast path.

Ncl updates..

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10155848293186414&id=43678986413

So far it's good news for you. PR is well south of the path. The Airport will close a day before and re-open as soon as they can, which will be within hours or a few days after the storm passes. The port is very protected and may see 3-5' rise in water but it will not be battered with waves. I only see a problem for you if the storm goes closer to San Juan than the present forecast path.

??

All the major channels CNN, NBC etc are saying Puerto Rico is in the direct path and

expects to get hit on Wednesday...

Euro model is now showing landfall around Naples and crossing the state. So further westward track than GFS at the moment.

Ah, I found updated models and the present GFS ensemble. I know the NHC does not generally show any forecast longer than 5 days, but I am surprised that at 5 days they have the storm center further west then the GFS, which shows a turn to the north, traveling up the center or east coast of Florida. NHC path suggests impact to the keys, while the GFS model suggests the entire east coast of FL is at risk until we know if it will go inland or remain on the coast. This is all for Sunday and beyond in case you are reading this and wondering.

??

All the major channels CNN, NBC etc are saying Puerto Rico is in the direct path and

expects to get hit on Wednesday...

The forecast track shows the center of the storm passing north of Puerto Rico.

Some of this is semantics:

The eye will probably pass by to the North (though that could change) while the island will definitely see some degree of hurricane-force winds so the storm will "hit" it. How close the eye passes and thus how intense those winds are will make a big difference in the level of damage sustained. There's a big difference between experiencing cat 4-5 winds in the eyewall and cat 1-2 winds out on the periphery of the storm.

??

All the major channels CNN, NBC etc are saying Puerto Rico is in the direct path and

expects to get hit on Wednesday...

Yeah, PR is certainly not "well south" of the path at this point..............

??

All the major channels CNN, NBC etc are saying Puerto Rico is in the direct path and

expects to get hit on Wednesday...

Major news outlets are the WORST source of weather information. They pick the most sensational elements and drive up the worry and desire to tune on by citing dire news that affects the most people. The first thing they said about Irma? FLORIDA. Gets everyone's attention. Stop 2: PUERTO RICO. Because not only are there a lot of people there, but there are several million mainlanders with family there.

The fact is this: On the present forecast path, the north coast will get 3-5 feel flooding, and tropical storm force winds, with the NE coast getting some category 1 winds. That will cause some damage but this is 40 miles off the centerline of the "direct path." Only the immediate center of the storm sees Cat 5 winds. radius 5 miles at most. Cat 4 to 10 miles, Cat 3 to ~15 miles, cat 2 to ~25 miles, Cat to ~1 to 40 miles. Tropical storm to ~60 miles.

AND - those distances are shorter on the south/SW side of the storm, where PR is, and longer on the north/NE side where the spin "strikes" the worst.

Here it comes folks. An unprecedented number of cruise itinerary changes and cancellations.

Basically expect, for any southeast port (Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Port Canaveral):

- ships that are out are heading home NOW to get in and get people off the ship, then the ships will sail NE to escape the storm before returning to ports, and begin figuring out what next sailing they can do.

- Sailings from these ports Thursday through the weekend - a lot of cancelled cruises, especially the 3 day cruises that cannot do anything else.

Here is NCL's list.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10155848293186414&id=43678986413

(Don't listen when people try to say cruise lines never cancel cruises. It has happened before, and it happens more than ever after some bad calls by captains and central operations in the last few years. They will err on the side of caution and safety now.)

On a personal note:

 

I was on the Breakaway sailing last October that did not make it to Bermuda. Instead we visited Port Canaveral and Nassau for short visits after both ports had also been hit by the storms and were still damaged and cleaning up. We made the best of it, but I am still critical of NCL for the way it was communicated... or rather, not communicated. Right up until boarding they said "everything is still on plan, no changes" which falsely reassured most people. I shook my head... I knew the first storm was sweeping up the coast and the second storm was right on target for Bermuda. It was after we were all aboard they announced we would overnight in NY, and re-plan the trip. The next day they announced the two ports. The stop in Nassau was 3-9pm but almost no excursions and most shops closed up at 5 or 6. At least we like the ship!

 

So we are now booked for Breakaway again, December 3, 12 days and 6 ports. And all 6 ports are in the path. San Juan, I think, will be least affected. St. Thomas, St. Kitts and Antigua will suffer some but recover in time. I am worried for Tortola and St. Maarten, though, both could see the worst of this storm.

Sounds a bit like how RCL handled Harvey and LOS.

RCCL update, more news expected around 6pm. 2 cancelled, 5 more under evaluation.

The following sailings are canceled:

Enchantment of the Seas: September 8 Bahamas cruise

Majesty of the Seas: September 8 Bahamas cruise

The following sailings are departing as scheduled:

Adventure of the Seas: September 9 Southern Caribbean cruise

Grandeur of the Seas: September 7 New England/Canada cruise

Liberty of the Seas: September 10 Western Caribbean cruise

Serenade of the Seas: September 10 New England/Canada cruise

Vision of the Seas: September 7 New England/Canada cruise

The following sailings are currently being evaluated and we will provide our next update at 6 PM EDT:

Allure of the Seas: September 10 Western Caribbean cruise

Anthem of the Seas: September 9 Bermuda cruise

Empress of the Seas: September 9 Cuba cruise

Harmony of the Seas: September 9 Eastern Caribbean cruise

Oasis of the Seas: September 10 Eastern Caribbean cruise

Major news outlets are the WORST source of weather information. They pick the most sensational elements and drive up the worry and desire to tune on by citing dire news that affects the most people. The first thing they said about Irma? FLORIDA. Gets everyone's attention. Stop 2: PUERTO RICO. Because not only are there a lot of people there, but there are several million mainlanders with family there.

 

The fact is this: On the present forecast path, the north coast will get 3-5 feel flooding, and tropical storm force winds, with the NE coast getting some category 1 winds. That will cause some damage but this is 40 miles off the centerline of the "direct path." Only the immediate center of the storm sees Cat 5 winds. radius 5 miles at most. Cat 4 to 10 miles, Cat 3 to ~15 miles, cat 2 to ~25 miles, Cat to ~1 to 40 miles. Tropical storm to ~60 miles.

 

 

 

AND - those distances are shorter on the south/SW side of the storm, where PR is, and longer on the north/NE side where the spin "strikes" the worst.

well i would rather listen to twc,cnn,nbc than some wanna be meteorologist from upstate Ny:rolleyes:

Harder to find, but here is the impact at Carnival so far. 4 Cruises altered, none canceled. Was posted by someone whose cruise consultant emailed it to them.

HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE

Sept. 5, 2017 – 11 a.m. ET

We are closely monitoring the path of Hurricane Irma and thus far have made itinerary changes as detailed below in order to ensure our ships maintain a safe distance from the storm. In addition we are making preparations for a potential landfall in South Florida. The safety of our guests and team members is our first priority. We will continue to make adjustments as necessary and will provide further updates as they become available.

CARNIVAL GLORY (SEVEN-DAY CRUISE FROM MIAMI)

Revised Itinerary Original Itinerary

Sept. 2 – Miami Sept. 2 – Miami

Sept. 3 – At Sea Sept. 3 – Half Moon Cay

Sept. 4 – Grand Cayman Sept. 4 – At Sea

Sept. 5 – Mahogany Bay (Roatan) Sept. 5 – St. Thomas

Sept. 6 – Belize Sept. 6 – San Juan

Sept. 7 – Cozumel Sept. 7- Grand Turk

Sept. 8 – At Sea Sept. 8 – At Sea

Sept. 9 – Miami Sept. 9 – Miami

CARNIVAL MAGIC (SIX-DAY CRUISE FROM PORT CANAVERAL)

Revised Itinerary Original Itinerary

Sept. 3 – Port Canaveral Sept. 3 – Port Canaveral

Sept. 4 – At Sea Sept. 4 – Nassau

Sept. 5 – Cozumel Sept. 5 – At Sea

Sept. 6 – Belize Sept. 6 – Amber Cove (Dominican Republic)

Sept. 7 – Costa Maya Sept. 7- Grand Turk

Sept. 8 – At Sea Sept. 8 – At Sea

Sept. 9 – Port Canaveral Sept. 9 – Port Canaveral

CARNIVAL SPLENDOR (SIX-DAY CRUISE FROM PORT FORT LAUDERDALE )

Revised Itinerary Original Itinerary

Sept. 3 – Port Everglades Sept. 3 – Port Everglades

Sept. 4 – At Sea Sept. 4 – Nassau

Sept. 5 – Cozumel Sept. 5 – Half Moon Cay

Sept. 6 – Mahogany Bay (Roatan) Belize Sept. 6 – Grand Turk

Sept. 7 – Belize Sept. 7- Amber Cove (Dominican Republic)

Sept. 8 – At Sea Sept. 8 – At Sea

Sept. 9 – Port Everglades Sept. 9 – Port Everglades

CARNIVAL PRIDE (SEVEN-DAY CRUISE FROM BALTIMORE)

Revised Itinerary Original Itinerary

Sept. 3 – Baltimore Sept. 3 – Baltimore

Sept. 4 – At Sea Sept. 4 – At Sea

Sept. 5 – Charleston Sept. 5 – At Sea

Sept. 6 – Freeport Sept. 6 – Grand Turk

Sept. 7 – Nassau Sept. 7- Half Moon Cay

Sept. 8 – At Sea Sept. 8 – At Sea

Sept. 9 – At Sea Sept. 9 – At Sea

Sept. 10 - Baltimore Sept. 10 – Baltimore